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Post #680 (isolation #1) » Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:49 am
Postby Jingle »
Day/Night would function normally. Each desperado would have a choice of trying to get their targets lynched normally or outing themselves to shoot. A desperado would functionally never be able to be lynched because they could always just shoot before the hammer, but they could be nightkilled.
If someone shoots scum they can't use the power again that day. A new desperado can use the power the same day though.
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Post #682 (isolation #2) » Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:49 am
Postby Jingle »
Having now read the setup for popcorn mafia, I'd argue it's sufficiently different on the grounds that the mafia have no influence on who controls the daykills, town is still capable of lynching, and it's important for the Desperado to keep themselves hidden.
I kind of agree that the setup isn't very necessary as there is a similar one already existing, though.
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Post #686 (isolation #3) » Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:23 am
Postby Jingle »
As written, the crossshoot endgame would be a townwin. Town doesn't need to have a player left alive to win.
And I'm fine with Mime winning Vig/Mafia/Mime despite the fact that the game could technically end in a different way because it's very unlikely to happen AND if it does the mime probably deserves the win for dodging multiple nightkills for however long it took to get to a 3p LYLO. If you let day start with 1v1v1 Mime cannot win, and it sucks to have a player who can't win in a game.
Also, it's impossible to have a 1v1v1 LYLO without a mime lynch. If a mime is shot, they both leave the game.
Also, A 0v2v1 should autoend in a mafia win because while mimes have majority they can't lynch both of themselves before the mafia nks. This should probably never happen, but I just realized it's technically possible.
In post 686, Jingle wrote:Also, A 0v2v1 should autoend in a mafia win because while mimes have majority they can't lynch both of themselves before the mafia nks. This should probably never happen, but I just realized it's technically possible.
Nope, the Mafia can be continuously blocked by the Mime roleblock.
Yup. And lynch Mime #1, mafia have parity and win.
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Post #694 (isolation #6) » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:30 am
Postby Jingle »
Agreed. And 0v2v1 should be a mafia win, because the second mime lynch is impossible. 0v1v1 can only end in no lynch no kill cycles if the game is continued.
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Post #703 (isolation #10) » Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:15 am
Postby Jingle »
Assuming activation is compulsive (It really should be):
The mafia can only kill if they've been activated thing is a win more mechanic. Odds that a mafia is activated D1 are ~96%. If no mafia are activated, you functionally have three conftown and the game is over.
Activators are irrelevant for EV, so it's probably functionally the same as 4v3.
You probably end up with a group decision as to who to lynch, so the activations don't matter as much except to mean mafia can't out themselves hammering. Mafia win condition has to be the homies dying or it's impossible to win with any mafia lynch. Which means mafia needs only two mislynches, possibly less. My guess without working out probabilities is that you need to add townies and get rid of the conditional mafia kill mechanic.
Assuming activation is non compulsive: You pick the towniest player D1 and that player's faction wins.
Edit: You can also call your activators treestumps. It means they can't be killed or vote.
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Post #705 (isolation #11) » Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:42 am
Postby Jingle »
Extra kills are hard to balance, and not activating mafia means mafia have less influence the lynch. If you want to give value to sneaking onto the activation train I'd reward it with a 1-shot factional suicide bomber or a mechanic like forcing one of the activators into a specific choice. Or alternatively, you could make activated players lynchproof.
First off, the Activators claim. As they're bulletproof, they have no reason not to. This removes them from the lynch pool.
Next, players, including Activators, unofficially vote (using FoSes or whatever) on a non-Activator player they believe is town. Then all the Activators choose that player as the player to activate.
Next, players, including Activators, unofficially vote (using FoSes or whatever) on a non-Activator player they believe is scum. The Activated player is forced to vote for that player, on pain of outing themself as scum. Likewise, if scum kill, this will out them as scum.
If an Activated player doesn't violate the breaking strategy, they should be chosen as the Activated player the following day, unless they're the desired lynch for the day.
Despite all that, EV is only 31.97%, because if scum is chosen on the first vote, their optimal strategy is to lynch the wrong player and nightkill another, even though they'll be outed in the process. Jingle wasn't kidding when he said extra kills were hard to balance.
For what it's worth, if you take the breaking strategy into account, the number of Activators is irrelevant, and the following ratios of homies:scum appear to be balanced (assuming I haven't made a mistake in the EV calculations or missed a better breaking strategy): 2:1; 3:2; 5:3; 7:4; 9:5. I'm not sure that the game would be much fun to play when broken, though.
I kinda said that, but props for doing the math man.
I kinda assumed activators were public, and to make the game more fun it's probably better if peeps can /in as activators/nonactivators. I think there's a lot of call for games in which there is a certain percentage of players who can ensure they're town.
Also 12:3 is probably too many homies. I'm gonna guess the EV is close to 7:3, (presumed 3.5-5 mislynches) but I'd appreciate if cfj would math for me cause I'm way too drunk to do probability tonight.
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Post #713 (isolation #13) » Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:11 am
Postby Jingle »
For a viable EV calculation you probably assume scum kills whenever they have the option. It's not a perfect model (but then again, given subjective values there rarely is a perfect model) but it simplifies it enough that you can get a value. Honestly though, in this case it might be worth far more to just pick what seems to be a reasonable number and run it, then reevaluate based on results. Thinking over it again I would suggest 8 homies v 3 goons as a decent starting place. It's on odds and 8 v 3 is scumsided without PRs while the mechanic is probably very townsided from my expectations. Somewhere on par with an investigative doctor, afaict.
Still think you shouldn't make the NK dependent on activating scum, but :shrugs:
If you get enough people interested (5 pre-ins?) I'd either run it or comod it for you in either the open or theme queues, assuming you need an experienced mod to get it into a queue.
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Post #722 (isolation #14) » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:15 am
Postby Jingle »
Honestly feels less like a mafia game and more like a popularity contest. Any game where a big portion of it is picking who wins and loses within your team leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
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Post #724 (isolation #15) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 10:16 am
Postby Jingle »
Interesting. I'm just going to assume that the opportunist doesn't know who the mafia are because it's broken if they do.
Balance wise, mafia is going to struggle to win this, but I don't think that's necessarily a problem. It's an interestingly viable strategy to no kill into 6p MYLO, because then even if town mislynches scum can choose not to kill which means they don't outright win.
You could probably make it a 7 person if you wanted a more even town/scumA/scumB win distribution. It'd functionally be 5v2 with an IC and nightless until the first scum dies, except, of course, that Opportunist becomes a Jester in 5p LYLO.
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Post #730 (isolation #16) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:15 am
Postby Jingle »
As is it seems like there would be a pretty easy investigative loop, even discounting just being nightless.
Maybe put in a way to have scum stop coordinated actions? Something like if they guess all of a player's targets, that player doesn't act? probs not that, cause that seems like a nightmare for the scumteam, but :shrug:
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Post #735 (isolation #17) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:26 am
Postby Jingle »
A>B
C>D
E>F
G>H
Doc claims N1.
Scum can't kill inside one of the pairs containing scum, so either they kill Conftown or they kill 2 town. If the scum who kills is in the targetee column, they're confscummed and a townie dies. If they're not they get to fake a result. So after night 1 it's 5p LYLO or 6 P MYLO with 2-3 cop results or faked cop results. Hm.
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Post #741 (isolation #19) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:37 am
Postby Jingle »
You have a 50/50 of a 1v1 for the player who doesn't kill, unless both scum are paired.
You have a 50/50 of the scum killing killing an extra townie unless both scum are paired, but that makes the killing scum confscum.
Hm... maybe copstart? That way the cops have to choose to target or not without coordination on N0.
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Post #746 (isolation #22) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:17 am
Postby Jingle »
As yet unnamed jester night less variant:
3 Jester
2 mafia
4 town
Game ends when all members of a faction have been lynched, or # mafia >= # town.
Maf win if they have parity with the townies (discounting jesters).
Town win if all mafia are dead.
Jester win individually if they’re dead at endgame.
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Post #748 (isolation #23) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:26 am
Postby Jingle »
Lynching 3 Jesters ends the game without hitting a mafia or town wincon, so if the Jesters claim one of them is guaranteed to lose. If only one Jester claims, the players just refuse to lynch that one player, and either town or mafia is guaranteed a win. If two Jesters claim, the other players can offer one of the two a win, but then the other is guaranteed to lose.
Definitely not worried about lynching Jesters.
Do you happen to have the 4:2 numbers available? I'm willing to bet the additional information from the Jesters helps town a little bit. Additionally, since it's a meme-harder variant of a meme setup, I'm willing to deal with a bit of imbalance in order to have a larger Jester percentage.
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Post #749 (isolation #24) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:35 am
Postby Jingle »
Looked it up. According to an old Nightless EV formula from mith, 4:2 is 33% town EV. That's a really harsh winrate (especially if you take into account the chance of Only Jesters Win reducing that) but I think the additional length and the townsiding nature of nightless should help. Personally I think it's close enough to still be enjoyable, but if anyone can come up with a way to boost Town EV compared to scum w/out fucking with the Jester portion of the setup, I'd be interested.
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Post #751 (isolation #25) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:08 am
Postby Jingle »
I disagree that the comparison is perfect. The inclusion of Jesters makes the game dramatically longer AND means scum has an incentive to not just lynch the weakest player. ime, the length of nightless games and the inability of scum to weed out strong voices is why nightless games townside over EV. That said, I agree with you that if there's a way to boost town v scum here that doesn't alter the core of the setup, that's good for the overall health of the setup.
Still doesn't really change the fact that what I'm looking for here is a boost to town that doesn't effect Jesters though. I'm not a big fan of IC's in nightless setups, tbh, but that is a potential solution. White Flag or variations thereof might work, but I feel that's a mite too punishing for Jesters. Adding players makes the game tedious, and removing mafia removes associations. I could see a vengekill for the first town lynch, but it seems inelegant. Investigations are largely the same.
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Post #753 (isolation #26) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:56 am
Postby Jingle »
Not only did I just say that I wanted to avoid adding players because the game length is already a point of minor concern, that would bump the setup from a micro to a mini. I am 0% interested to wait through a mini queue for a meme setup designed to maximize the potential for a player who wants an opportunity to be a Jester to roll Jester.
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Post #755 (isolation #27) » Wed May 08, 2019 11:24 am
Postby Jingle »
Alignment Cop seems iffy, given they're > IC. AC probably claims D1 (being IC adjacent isn't safe, it just means you get lynched from the other side) then activates in LYLO.
#s
11 -> 8 -> 5 -> Endgame
You have to average 1.3 scumlynches per day to win as town, and you have to lynch 2 scum in the first two days.
I assume 1v2v2 and 0v1v1 result in scumdraw, since in both situations town has lost and scum has no method of breaking a tiebreaker internally. 2v2v1 should result in larger scumteam win, because town can't win. (Team of two won't vote for an option that kills both of them, team of one won't vote for an option that kills them.)
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Post #757 (isolation #28) » Wed May 08, 2019 12:12 pm
Postby Jingle »
If the goal of the setup is to reduce the original Splash damage, I'd suggest reducing it out of multiball (a guess would be that 8v3 is more appropriate with just mafia choose list order). If the goal is to marathon-ize splash damage, it's already a fairly decent marathon setup if you can get the people for it. It's relatively short, there's no huge problem to meme-lynches and it's mechanically simple enough to pull off, assuming you think you can keep track of a 17p votecount in real time.
Ignore the math, I calculated awfully and don't have the time to fix it atm.
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Post #760 (isolation #30) » Wed May 08, 2019 1:48 pm
Postby Jingle »
Assuming mafia space themselves out to prevent double maf lynch is optimal (It might be? I'm not sure, but it seems like a reasonable strategy):
2/11 triple town D1.
Leads to 5v3
9/11 single scum.
Leads to 6v2
5v3
1/8 double scum into 3/5 LYLO
7/8 single scum into 1/5 LYLO
OR (Choice is scums)
3/8 double scum into 3/5 LYLO
1/4 Scumwin
3/8 Single Scum into 1/5 LYLO
6v2
1/4 Triple town into 3v2 LYLO, 1/5 town win.
3/4 1 Scum into 4v1 LYLO, 3/5 Town Win.
~45% Town EV. The difference in the scum choices is about 1% and it's the option which allows for an autowin for scum D2 which favors town, slightly.
Gonna go ahead and say it's theoretically balanced, unless someone thinks of a better strat for scum.
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Post #765 (isolation #31) » Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:21 am
Postby Jingle »
Bb explains it well in the common mistakes thread, which is definitely worth a read. As far as balancing the setup, I could see three options. Total rework to be a semi open with variable roles, conversion to a small town, or transition to a closed setup, in which case you want to have this discussion in a pt.
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Post #767 (isolation #32) » Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:49 am
Postby Jingle »
Now that I'm not mobile, I'll elaborate a little. Option one would be something along the lines of
Each of the following roles has a 33% chance of being included in this game. Any roles which are not included will instead by VTs.
Doctor
Tracker
Vengeful Townie
1-shot Governor
Hated Townie
Follower
Odd-night Commuter
Roleblocker
Borrower (Absorber, but only gets 1 shot for each absorption)
1-shot neighborizer
Smalltown is shorthand for a setup in which all of the roles are known, but the alignment of said roles is unknown. Thus you would have that list and three ability thieves, and randomly 3 among those players are scum.
Making a closed setup is pretty self explanatory, although you could either post a request for setup help in the looking for reviewers thread with your gimmick (scum action thiefs) or simply PM people you think might be willing/able to help you with balance.
You could also maybe change the setup fundamentally by making the town power roles repetitive (if there's 6 town trackers, scum can fakeclaim tracker) but doing so mean you need to have a very weak PR base and it seems pretty geared towards not having a bunch of the same PR as it is.
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Post #773 (isolation #35) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:56 pm
Postby Jingle »
Circle protect here is a terrible strategy, btw. It just outs the real doctor to scum if they get a save. A kill isn't incriminating, and a save still isn't a clear.
I get the idea of doc taking the game off of evens, but I think your doc save is significantly likely to only come late. (N1 doc save is 2/8*1/8+6/8*2/8 or ~22% assuming a scum lynch. It drops with a False Doc lynch and it drops dramatically with a Doc lynch.)
I don't think forcing a lynch is necessary at all. There's no reason that town wants to no lynch before MYLO or loss of all docs.
Similarly, I don't think 9v2 is unreasonable, given that town has no PRs who can avoid a lynch via claim.
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Post #795 (isolation #37) » Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:19 am
Postby Jingle »
My only issue with it is that mafia can get screwed by 3p playing poorly, but that's kind of the central conceit. Without working out EV I can't be sure it's balanced, but it's probably close enough that it's reasonable to run, and the players know what they're getting into.
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Post #810 (isolation #38) » Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:47 pm
Postby Jingle »
SK inside a scumteam is a thing that works, pops, although I'm not sure how much it really adds to the setup. I'd wager it ends up being significantly more townsided due to the lack of internal scum cohesion.
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Post #819 (isolation #39) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:26 am
Postby Jingle »
That's also not to say it's not a valid game. There are 'mafia' games we play that are not really mafia, such as Dethy or low playercount AitP.
Scum should p much never shoot unless prs out, in which case one should qh and claim to be shooting that night. Thus, this is functionally 5v3 nightless. None of the setups seem like they'd have enough power to compensate for that, especially when you take into account that the game is functionally randomlynching. You could probably turn it into a decent enough large, but even still it'd be better run as a closed with little to no replay value.
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Post #820 (isolation #40) » Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:37 pm
Postby Jingle »
Monty Hall Mafia
3 Goon
6 VT
Plurality, standard nightkills.
At the halfway point of the dayphase, if there are fewer than three wagons, the lynch occurs immediately. Otherwise a random player who is being voted. If no player who is being voted can be confirmed to be town, Mafia immediately loses.
I haven't looked at balance much as this is a rough draft, but does anyone see any immediate concerns?
Edited to remove leashing as necessary.
Last edited by Jingle on Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post #823 (isolation #41) » Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:58 am
Postby Jingle »
In post 821, Blatant Scum wrote:Mafia should attack revealed townie every night, making the reveal not very powerful.
After one mislynch, if town fails to build highiest wagon on mafia before midday, they lose.
I think you misunderstand the conceit of the setup. As long as there are 3 options, option 2 or 3 is revealed town halfway through the day. 3 options could be 7 votes for A, 1 vote for b, 1 vote for c.
The immediate lynch only triggers if there aren’t three options, which any individual group of three players can guarantee. Otherwise you continue the day with a conftown and theoretically it’s mathematically optimal to not lynch the person who had been the highest wagon (thus Monty hall).
Basically, the conceit of the setup is public cop halfway through each day randomly determined among all suspected parties. I'm really mostly concerned with fair balance. Town has more power than cop 9-er and it never goes away. Additionally, scum has the agency to shoot clears as soon as they pop up. 2v7 feels townsided and 3v6 seems scumsided, and that's where I'm most interested in feedback.
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Post #837 (isolation #45) » Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:40 pm
Postby Jingle »
Hypothetical EV doesn't matter at all in this case, as we can extrapolate practical information.
Vote for town is evidence (although weak) that the reversal of wincons doesn't change the observed winrate.
Black Flag Nightless is a roughly balanced setup via observation.
Therefore, reversed wincon Black Flag Nightless can be expected to be roughly balanced. It's probably more fun than the normal variant, too, since good play is rewarded with leaving the game so people who get demoralized are incentivized to try harder not lurk.
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Post #838 (isolation #46) » Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:45 pm
Postby Jingle »
Btw, any nightless setup changed to vote for town would have exactly opposite theoretical balance by necessity. Town wins in the cases it lost before, and scum wins in the cases it lost before.
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Post #847 (isolation #48) » Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:55 am
Postby Jingle »
First impression is scumsided.
Gut says assign a pool of players who are not allowed to act and a pool of players who investigate in the other pool. Second pool probably starts small (2-3) and increases to all but two on a scum lynch.
Loud is redundant with FN. Night one, both FN's target both BP and one of them gets results, so scum is going to kill BPs early.
Lynch town D1, scum kills BP. Scum Kills not BP. Lynch Scum BP. Scum Kills 2x not BP.
Not taking into account the potential for shooting a FN, That's D3 MYLO. Watcher has a good chance of hitting one of if not both BPs. It's a 1/5 town win day one, functionally, and a MYLO with 0-2 conftown after that. Approximately a 47% town win if one of the FN's dies, otherwise a 60% town win. Doesn't seem untenable, but it's pretty punishing for town. It's an equilibrium on whether the optimal strats should be followed, and if they are it's functionally the same as a massclaim D1. Playable, but probably slightly scumsided.
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Post #856 (isolation #50) » Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:30 am
Postby Jingle »
In post 853, theslimer3 wrote:But it’s a 3 mafia, 4 town setup, where there’s 1 mafia goon, and 2 traitors, and the rest are all vanilla.
It’s nightless and if the goon gets lynched, the two traitors are endgamed. Lynching town loses day 1.
I don't think it meaningfully changes the math to drop a traitor and a VT (I mean, it does, but not enough to be insane) but it would reduce the PITA for the Goon if the traitors are lynched early. Interestingly, the traitors here are functionally identical to Unlynchers which might make the game more palatable on a reskin to some players. It's a scumsided by numbers (57% scumwin on D1) but not enough to invalidate the setup for what it is I think. Probably a good setup to run as a blitz or a marathon.
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Post #866 (isolation #51) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:12 am
Postby Jingle »
Without running numbers it’s probably balanced. The only real issues I see is that it could get to functional autoloss but still have days left to get there and it’s stuck in perpetual evens. It might be more fun run as a 13p with White flag mechanics.
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Post #888 (isolation #53) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:48 pm
Postby Jingle »
Alright.
Lone wolf is probably broken by repeated no lynching until puppet masters vig wolves.
Strings is roughly 2 goons v 2 mason doctors + 5vt which is still mafia but is townsided af. (The extra information mafia has over the masons is who is against them.)
SKD3 guardian angel doesn’t work as advertised and all of the setups seem scumsided at a glance. G angel just means LYLO is earlier because lynching the SK while purged outside of lylo is a guilty result.
DB is necessarily white flag, and there probably needs to be some kind of mechanic to prevent DB from switching prevents often or activity becomes AI. I’d suggest running it as a marathon, it seems fascinating that way. There’s also interesting wagonomics to be done with rvs, considering mafia bussing runs the risk of getting them day vigged. Prevented day kills and whether the maf pt has an access list do need to be clarified. If DB has access but isn’t mod announced they could just choose to be silent and force the mafia to hunt them in all of the players.
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Post #891 (isolation #54) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:15 pm
Postby Jingle »
Ironically my location changed just in time for me to be back in Spokane for several weeks. Hopefully I get to leave again in the next two days though.
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Post #901 (isolation #56) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:44 am
Postby Jingle »
Is the accuse action public or private? If private, I'd suggest that DB doesn't need to be able to accuse, and it's honestly probably more interesting that way.
I dig the mafia into a game of magic train dynamic. It seems pretty awkward that 2 goons being lynched early means DB needs to pretend to be scum and still get lynched before endgame. It might be better to have it end 48 hours after the last mafia goon is lynched and prevent accuses from being changed once they've been cast. That way town doesn't have to theater a game of mafia where all the mafia are dead. OTOH, it would definitely be interesting to see two consecutive goon lynches and a low number of informed and watch DB accidentally endgame. In which case... What happens?
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Post #902 (isolation #57) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:48 am
Postby Jingle »
Oh, also there should probably be a separate town and mafia dead pt, since correct play from town after being lynched is just to never post again which defeats the point of a dead thread.
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Post #904 (isolation #58) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:24 am
Postby Jingle »
In post 903, DrDolittle wrote:I'm thinking just to ask town players when confirming to given teh number of informs they'd like, take the median, and randomly distribute. Or I can ask Donnie his preference. Or I can just set it to be 3. decisions decisions.
Honestly, it probably doesn't meaningfully impact the game balance past whether it's known/unknown. There's upsides and downsides to both high and low numbers of informed, so any method of deciding should be fine.
I'd probably go with the first option to give players the illusion of being important though.
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Post #909 (isolation #59) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:09 am
Postby Jingle »
I don't think you need to add any VTs, but I agree that the voting rule is a no go.
If 5p LYLO you can force 2 scummiest players to vote for 3rd scummiest player together to confirm they're not a scumteam. Only the two towniest players will be able to hammer. It's a risky confirm strat, but not one that should exist in the first place.
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Post #922 (isolation #60) » Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:13 pm
Postby Jingle »
I feel like the setup is townsided.
The first lynch either confirms an artifact as town or scum, and a JK means that the confirmed town artifact is unkillable or the confirmed scum artifact's lynch makes the JK a full cop. Similarly, the JK's partner is a mason. If the JK claims, mafia still only have a 50% to accurately target them.
tl;dr: there are a LOT of potential clears here. I do like the idea, but I don't think a protective role fits in the setup at all.
EDIT: removed a paragraph talking about unassigned artifacts, as that appears to have been a mistake on my part.
Last edited by Jingle on Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.