[Setup]Accuser and Investigator

[mith]

Almost certainly too scumsided. A town Accuser losing the game (as opposed to just being lynched) if they don't pick both scum incentivizes town to claim investigator, so a day 1 investigator claim is meaningless. That means a 1/9 chance of picking the investigator day 1, and only a 1/28 chance of town winning in that case.

The town Accuser case is a mess to calculate EV for, but EV for scum Accuser is 229/315 (~72.70%); if we assume EV for town Accuser is same as Vanilla 2:5 (8/35, 22.86%) but accounting for the 1/28 chance of instantly winning, overall EV is around 25%. Town will do a bit better than that because of the investigator, but not much.

Without the loss condition on the town Accuser, it's probably closer to balanced - scum can force the investigator out to get a 1:6 (19/35), but investigator Accuser isn't a thing any more which helps.

[mith]

Well, even if town claimed investigator under threat of lynch, wouldn't lynching them anyways if they don't activate IC mean that you'll pick someone else and just deal with a shot investigator in that scenario?

IE 6/9 chance of town accuser, 2/9 mafia accuser, and 1/9 of the other two but a known investigator?

You’re right, I spaced on reveal meaning mod confirmed. That does change things.

[mith]

I suspect it is still a bit scum-sided, but I don't have time to work through everything to confirm that...

[mith]

I mean, that's basically exactly what the EV would be. I don't think there is any possible breaking strategy for this beyond investigator revealing when necessary.

The challenge in calculating this is (vs. a Vanilla variant) is in keeping track of the status of the investigator. It's not hard, exactly, just tedious.