Blitz 18: Wedding Invitational Mafia - GAME OVER

[Empire]

/confirm, nerds.

[Empire]

I guess having the bride and groom not claim and then them getting quick hammered at L-1 by scum is also a pretty big risk to having them not claim.

We can circumvent this issue by making L-2 the new L-1.

I don't know shit about setup spec and I'm at work though so I haven't properly thought through everything yet.

[Empire]

I don't think scum are likely to pile on like that but also see me not thinking through everything yet >_>

[Empire]

Managed to get out of work early so I'll post more when I get back home from work.

I guess having the bride and groom not claim and then them getting quick hammered at L-1 by scum is also a pretty big risk to having them not claim.

We can circumvent this issue by making L-2 the new L-1.

I don't know shit about setup spec and I'm at work though so I haven't properly thought through everything yet.

Except scum could place 2 votes quickly... Caution is good. How many scum do you think there are?

At that point, I honestly thought there were the traditional 3-4 scum but I had a misconception about something that I really don't think I should talk about now.

And Nacho, you're a fuckboi that should gargle my gargantuan nutsack.

P-edit: can you people stop posting, jesus.

P.S. Pieguyn is mafia.

[Empire]

Pie, what bork said. Your two townreads are too easy (especially the Nacho one) and the other posts feel like awkward interjections into the game.

I believe BRO's claim.

[Empire]

Pie, what bork said. Your two townreads are too easy (especially the Nacho one) and the other posts feel like awkward interjections into the game.

OK.

there's about 0 way town-you would scum read me for "awkward posts" after the whole fiasco in Forest Fire. I'm giving you one chance to retract this when you arrive.

What do you think scum-me's strategy would be re: you given this playerlist?

(Also, no)

[Empire]

read my last post

and I don't think you'd have any strategy re: me specifically, I made that same mistake in Forest Fire thinking "omigawd sangres wouldn't push me out the gate" when the reality was scum there would have to play around _everyone_, not just me. I think you just saw an angle to push and pushed it.

I don't like attention and antagonizing people who react strongly when I'm scum.

Talk to me about your Nacho read. Why is he town and why is my questioning it sillier than my questioning your bork one?

[Empire]

Finally back at my computer:

who else would you have pushed, and don't you imagine after Forest Fire I would not react as strongly as I did there (for fear of turning the whole game into another T/T shitfight)?

I don't see the relevance of this as a rebuttal to why you would think "forced posts" is a reliable reason for scum reading me.

I don't think you would react differently because the one thing that I've learned about mafia is that most people are predictable (although I don't know if you will understand what I mean by that). And I absolutely would have attacked someone else (GIF comes to mind as a scum-me target). I really don't want to re-hash the literal exact same argument as the last time but do you really think I am positioning my reasoning as a "reliable reason to scumread" you? There's obviously a reason I chose to pick at you in this way and I am a bit disappointed you haven't seen it yet.

Nacho is town because I can just feel it. I don't have a more specific explanation, I'm reading people almost entirely based off gut/tone so far (this is part of what I meant when I said I'm playing this like a marathon game) and Nacho's posts feel really strongly town. I thought his opening looked really excited in a way I would expect from him, and he proceeded to discuss reasonable things with it (i.e. it wasn't just him-scum just posting fluff in order to come across as excited), and I didn't take issue with any of it, so that's enough for a town read rn.

I don't really think you'd think the second question makes sense. the Nacho town read is a less "easy" town read, precisely _because_ people will naturally question it due to it being Nacho, and people would likely be hesitant to town read him as I've done based on <4 or 5 RL hours of posts, which is why I don't like that you called it "easy". again, it read like you weren't thinking it through all the way.

The problem that I have is that I can definitely visualize Nacho playing in this way as scum (even with the push on me, he's told me in the past that he would love trying to get someone like me lynched). The second question makes sense if you understand what I've been trying to do this whole time.

And another thing, of course I understand that bork came to a different conclusion than me. I was phone posting, while at work and while in traffic and it was a shortcut for me to try and get at what I wanted to say.

---

Nati, frankly, I don't give a damn about what Nacho is doing. I'm not going to get anything alignment indicative from that and if he's town he should know my whole approach to the early game and why I do the things I do when I'm town (sooner or later, although part of me thinks Nacho is just fucking trolling or whatever). I'd rather just play the game on my own terms and try to gamesolve my way rather than worry about shit. Worrying about shit was what led me to playing like shit in the last non-hydra game I had.

Vote: AP

[Empire]

Syryana, if you like my vote why aren't you following it?

[Empire]

Because I tend to vote the people I think are scum.

P-edit: @ Ceph

[Empire]

I don't think you would react differently because the one thing that I've learned about mafia is that most people are predictable (although I don't know if you will understand what I mean by that). And I absolutely would have attacked someone else (GIF comes to mind as a scum-me target). I really don't want to re-hash the literal exact same argument as the last time but do you really think I am positioning my reasoning as a "reliable reason to scumread" you? There's obviously a reason I chose to pick at you in this way and I am a bit disappointed you haven't seen it yet.

to my mind, you pushing my posts being "awkward" implied that you think that it's more likely than not valid reasoning, even if it's only a slight tell.

even if it's just a reaction test, I don't really want to rule out you using a "reaction test" to enter the game as scum; pretending to do a reaction test in RVS/early game is something I see from scum fairly often when they want to look like they've generated content. can you walk me through your scum read on AP in more depth?

I probably did a little bit of both "pushing" (although I disagree with this characterization, see Forest Fire) and reaction testing! (I actually feel a bit bad now about doing it) At any rate, I think you're town now and hopefully you should be able to see that I'm town as the game goes on so we can work together. As for the AP read, give me a moment to tango with him before I dive into that.

post 242[/url], pieguyn"]Nacho has told me all about his dreams of mislynching various players too, and I assume he's done the same for a bunch of other people in this game. which is why I think him actually trying to do it, in this game, would be a really bad idea and that if he was gonna do something like this it'd be in a different game. the only sense I think it makes would be if he went for it anyway hoping for people to town read him based on "he wouldn't do this as scum", but even then I think it was perfectly reasonable to take issue with your early play. if he starts bending over backwards trying to scum read someone, then ya I would agree with your point here.

Fair enough, I want to wait and see what Nacho thinks of my posts when he reads the game again as he should 100% be able to recognize that this is my town play if he's town. I just think that Nacho would absolutely have the balls to try and pull this play as scum in this roster.

[Empire]

Am I the only one who actually likes #241?

P-edit: AP, it's BRO's flavor. I got some other stuff I want to talk with you about though~

[Empire]

AP, it's for a couple of reasons and I think you can probably get them from these questions:

1) Where is your bork townread coming from?

2) What is it that you look for when you try to enter a game as scum? Do you ever think to replicate what you have done in a previous game as scum?

[Empire]

Nacho, I'm going to be fucking devastated if you're scum in this game

[Empire]

1) Well it was a pretty much shooting from the hip read and I've since gotten more -shrug- about it because other people are posting things that look town to me and I dont want to bloat my townreads. The thought was about how persistent he was in encouraging the groom/bride to claim. Its a bit bold for scum and doesn't really match up with what I recall of Bork's scumgame anyhow. I like that he had direction so early and I generally had good feelings about him.

2) I don't think I've ever reflected on my past scum games for ideas as scum. Occasionally things will happen or situation will arise that remind me of past scumgames and I may reference them or attempt to replicate them at that point. So, no; I don't think I have or likely would intentionally replicate my behavior from another scumgame when entering a game as scum. My scum behavior tends to depend on the player list and tempo of the game. If Im playing with people Im mostly unfamiliar with I'll intentionally attempt to subvert common 'scumtells' as they occur to me that people may care about them. I mostly play responsively and kind of neutral in that scenario. Against people I know, I'm more likely to try and actively play to my town meta which is paranoia, snootyness, and whatever.

The bork read seemed way too easy to me at the time because I think he had only posted once between your first post and the one where you indicate a townread on him. It just looked like one of those off the cuff townreads on that guy that you just know is going to obvtown sooner rather than later so it's low risk and it makes you look like you're giving original content (since at the time I believe you were the first person to say he was town). But what really triggered the bad feeling was that your entry felt similar to the one from Tales of You (although I'll admit I didn't go back to read the game, I was just going off of memory at the moment) in that forced joke-y way. I tend to think that scum, even when their playstyle appears off the cuff, tend to plan stuff and the part of the game they most plan is their openings so I was curious to see if imitating a prior scum game as scum is a thing you would do.

As for BRO, I'm not SUPER familiar with the flavor but enough to know that it could plausibly be a town role. Re-reading, I like the general way he discusses it, in a "hey, isn't it funny that I got this role" kind of way that reads genuine. I'm probably not explaining it well but that's what I feel.

[Empire]

So my read was premature because I only read one Bork post, but I also knew I was being original because I had read everything else?

Yeah, it was weird, like, I had both thoughts independently but didn't try to see how they fit together (which I'm chalking up to being tired and this shitty job I have >_> ).

Unvote

I need to think more about this game because I reached "can it really be this simple?" mode surprisingly quickly.

[Empire]

I guess if there's only like 2-3 scum in this game then having a lot of townreads makes sense but damn.

P-edit: you guys are fuckers, goddamn.

P-p-edit: aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa I'm drowning in posts.

[Empire]

Just to let you guys know that I'm going to be at work today and tomorrow so I won't be able to post until I get back at like 6-7PM EST. Going to do a re-read and then probably post reads list.

[Empire]

(Empire should call me scum for congratulating the playerlist, and someone should call me scum for abdicating responsibility. :p)

I didn't think these things were scummy at all! >_> Well, also, I wanted to give you space while you do your thing but time is short and this game started at a shit time for me so I want to get down to business: if/when you get what you want from Ceph, want to talk about him and your read on him?

I too want to get back to this when Empire has time as I am more ??? about it from Empire's end than Pie's - were you actually scumreading Pie or just testing Pie. I think we're past the point of getting any additional dialog about your opening against Pie to talk about that.

Bit of A but more of B. In the haze of the early part of this game, when I first read the post, I did have the immediate impression that pie's opening felt awkward and that her reads felt too easy but then I remembered Forest Fire and started thinking "hmm, what if I press her on this? Maybe that will help me get the early read I need and I can always back out before any argument escalates and threatens to drown out the thread." Veering a bit off into theory for a moment, I usually thrive on conflict in the early game (though not on the level where it gets toxic) by forcing people to engage me as it forces people to take a stand on what's going on and that's how you get your reads. I don't think I got as much from it beyond pie but even just one read helps.

Hm, thanks for linking.

I find Pie's attitude to look town, but there is a bit of a disconnect in this response from the content of the previous posts.

Frankly, Im not seeing anything particularly town to come from Pie by that point. The belief that she'd play differently as scum is fine but the attempt to explain that thought there are also a bit disconnected.

I don't know. More null on Pie than anything I guess.

She reacted pretty similarly in this game. I don't remember if you give a shit about stuff like this but it might be worth a once over.

Vote: goodmorning

[Empire]

IIRC BRO's claim actually checks out...

Just remembered this. Assuming you believe BRO's claim, what follows from that re: setup?

[Empire]

Mala, how closely have you been reading this game so far?

(going to run a couple of errands and then do a full reread)

[Empire]

I meant Mala.

[Empire]

Eh, she can answer it whenever she gets here, no rush. >_>

What do you think about AP?

[Empire]

Well if I can't lynch Mara
VOTE: goodmorning

man this vote tho

[Empire]

I know, that's part of why I voted her but damn dude that vote gives me the heebie jeebies.

Mala, I asked because your posts seem a bit surface level and a bit light on the reads/analysis, no offense.

@P-edit: the first line was @Nacho's #474.

[Empire]

Empire - I was joking with the you would call me scum for that thing. Some time ago we were following a game and both thought someone was scum for a making a congratulating the playerlist post. I'm not sure what I think about Ceph yet.

I don't remember that! >_> I'm asking you about Ceph because I got to you-town fairly painlessly this time around (I know, it surprised me too). I think Ceph might be town and I see a number of positives in his ISO and I know we've talked about reading him in the past, so let me know what you think of the following:

1) He is not committing the "oily politician" tell.
2) He seems overall pretty unapologetic about his play and his frustration with people being deliberately obtuse seems town.
3) He doesn't seem to be keeping track of this game all that closely and that doesn't seem faked. From what I remember, he prefers scum and I think he'd be a lot more on top of shit as that alignment.
4) He had that one post earlier where he was like "how do I deal with x type of player," came across very much in a "speaking-from-the-heart" type of way.

[Empire]

I think he's AP? I'm not really sure, which is a little weird. I tend to townread him fairly quickly but I haven't really been here so it could just be that.

Your focus feels off (and the Nati comment adds to this impression). I feel like AP has been one of the more prolific posters in the game and the subject of a wagon so I don't really get why you didn't mention him as you were going along through the game. Who are your townreads that you mentioned way back?

[Empire]

Do you usually consider GIF a memorable poster?

[Empire]

Do you usually consider GIF a memorable poster?

Sometimes but not always.

I guess what I'm trying to get at is I don't really understand why you mentioned Nati there specifically and I'm trying to figure out if that was a calculated move or not.

[Empire]

Mala might be scum again. can someone who has more experience with her tell me if she tends to make content-light catchup posts like 380 as town?

My problem is that Mala feels disengaged and distant. I've never played a game with her and it's been ages since I read a game she's been in, though.

P-edit: I read Mala as scum in TM based on what I just said here, actually.

[Empire]

Man, Syr, I'm going through that game right now and you seem so much more aggressive and proactive in your approach to the game :/

[Empire]

No, I vaguely recall her making weird votes as either alignment in past games. I think she also did in TM, too.

[Empire]

also I liked Empire's confidence that "Nacho would 100% see me as town if he's town" after he sorted me, would be kinda impressed if he felt that confident to post smth like that as scum specifically after doing something deliberately confusing that would give people cause to question him.

I feel like even I would be able to do this as scum and you know how I feel about my scumgame

You don't understand just how bad my scum game is.

[Empire]

I think you're town, dude, come on. >_>

[Empire]

I was town and also really, really bad in it. I was scum in Nightless before I switched with Zar.

[Empire]

I just tried to ISO GIF and all I get is ??????????

[Empire]

I'm actually really tempted to switch to Syr just based on having read Blitz 2.

P-edit: check her posts towards AP, they're pretty town.

[Empire]

Yeah, the blatant "I don't give a fuck" attitude is something I like but I have no idea if this is just a symptom of GIF the player rather than the alignment.

P-edit: well, that answers that...

[Empire]

Nati, you missed my question pls answer my question

[Empire]

I have to rush out the door after I type this because I have to go buy a birthday gift for my lovely girlfriend but I will be back in like an hour or so.

Nati, you missed my question pls answer my question

which was?

Here.

Not gonna lie, I haven't been following things as closely as you have so I haven't picked up on those nuances. Though he did in some game earlier this year? try to pull a I'm a lurker cause I'm town and I care more as scum type thing. My concern with Ceph is he knows very well what town Ceph looks like and can emulate that and change once one thing is picked up on.

That's always a danger with meta but I don't think we've played together aside from ASoIaF UPick when we were scum so I don't know if he knows specifically what I look for in him. Has this stuff been brought up to him in the past? (Somehow, I don't think he's aware of the "oily politician" tell.)

Do you still have the perfect streak of reading Nacho? I ask because I'm bad and I am still uneasy about him even after looking at the totality of his play and following the implicit thought process in his posts. >_>

I was with her in a game recently...actually she was a hydra with GM there I think. Her structuring and content level doesn't seem weird to me, I remember her not posting too much and being a bit defensive. But she seemed more engaged. I was pretty hard townreading that slot, largely because of Mala's occasional drive by catchup-quote-strip-walls

I mean, it's always possible that her ability to fully dive into the game really has been hampered by IRL (I can relate a bit because this game just kind of came out of nowhere for me and I had no idea it was going to be a Blitz), but even taking that into account, it's all still pretty underwhelming to me.

The answer to this is that if GiF were scum you wouldn't be having this conversation because you'd have forgotten that GiF is in the game.

To be honest, before his most recent series of posts, I was really heading down that road of forgetting him. The only thing is that he was really low key in the TM Large Theme so it all adds up to a big ???? for me. I probably won't have enough time to check out some recent scum games of his though because this game started at the worst possible time for me.

jesus I'm lost
ok

{BRO, Empire, Ceph, bork}

I am confused why BRO and Ceph are included in the top tier and I'm confused why I'm not.

You seem to care way too much about how people are reading you and that makes me a bit worried dude

---

I still think GM and Mala are both scum although I like the GM wagon slightly more. I'd be surprised if there isn't at least one scumbag here between these two.

Mara's latest series of posts are annoying as fuck but she's probably town.

{bork, Tammy, pieguyn} are my strongest townreads which is really disappointing as I wanted to have more confidence rather than just a bunch of "I think" townreads. I think I'm suffering from invitational syndrome.

pie, what do you think of Nati? I have ~opinions~ but I want to wait and see what she says in response to my question.

[Empire]

Oh, I forgot to mention one very important thing:

I will not be around for most of tomorrow and I cannot guarantee that I will be around to switch votes so do not assume that it will happen and plan accordingly.

[Empire]

God, I hate you so much right now.

[Empire]

It's just that I associate you orienting yourself like that and trying to get into people's good graces with your scum game (well, that and the mechanical/distant tone, although that's changed a bit).

P-edit: don't be, I'm not very good at this game anymore >_>

[Empire]

On phone but tbh NS I am not familiar with your scum game (although I did really like that post just now) and I don't have the time right now to go check.

[Empire]

I hate mafia and I hate being afraid of being wrong.

[Empire]

Like, I've been sorta scumreading Syr ever since I looked at Blitz 2 but that claim has me all adgshgvfhfbghf

[Empire]

I know it's irrational and dumb, Nacho. Ugh.

[Empire]

Jesus take the wheel

Unvote, vote: Syryana

[Empire]

I'm going to legit just fucking hate myself if he is town.

[Empire]

It's been my birthday and honestly literally fuck this game, I'll post tomorrow.

[Empire]

I have no idea how in the fuck I am going to be able to keep up with this game considering my job + all the goings on I have this week (I have a close friend I haven't seen in years visiting me as well as family who want to do something belated for my birthday). I honestly have been contemplating replacing out but I will try weathering the storm for the next couple of days.

Just before I start reading though, a thought came to me during work about why bork might have died N1 but I don't know if I should discuss it in the thread since it involves setup spec related stuff.

[Empire]

to be completely honest, this game is just way too circlejerky (still reading).

[Empire]

Like, maybe I'm horribly wrong, but it feels like way too many people are remembering to talk about him for him to be scum.

The problem is that he has been so in-the-background relative to the rest of the game that that in and of itself has become a subject of discussion. Like with Nati, I tend to forget that GIF is in the game but he was pretty much a non entity in the TM Large Theme so I don't really know what to think of him.

I'd honestly like a followup on this. Traditional 3-4 scum is a boring assumption and one that I assume(d) and assume(d) that you also assume(d). Why the L-2 comment?

Then of course we get to the part where Pieguy sees Empire saying that Pie is scum and overreacts to it. Then we get 171 which is interesting. Empire is sheeping Bork's points on Pie and Bork tells Pie that Pie's assertion that she is 'transparently town' is egregious. Pie moves away from that and focuses on Empire despite having been told by one of her two townreads that she is not town and saying as much is egregious. Of course this was all started by Empire calling Pie scum. Very confrontational which could be because of the past game in question. Not really glistening as much from this as I'd hope I would. 220 feels earnest about the "Who he'd go after" bit but not conclusively. I think I'd rule out this being T/S :S. Pie retorts in 242 where the whole thing just kind of deescalates quickly. Pie and Empire's discussion of Nacho was pretty terrible. Pie dropping all the suspicion on Empire is weird.

Since that whole backandforth, Empire has dropped a lot of AtE sort of posts that felt right to me but are also existing in a sort of vacuum. Not out of the realm of fakeability, especially since empire clearly understands his own biases and emotions. Pie had a similar one with the "we are getting rolled epically" comment which is something I'd like to reflect on more.

To your question, I thought I had already made it very clear that I thought at the time it was unlikely for scum to pile up on whoever the wagonee was. I wasn't really thinking things very clearly at the start of the game because I usually feel the uncontrollable need to post my thoughts when I'm town and I get very uncomfortable when I have nothing to say (remember how I opened in Ether's game?).

As to the stuff with pie, at least on my end, I backed off because I didn't want the game state to devolve into the arguing that Regfan/me had with pie in the last game. I've seen way too much Wisdom-style garbage where games get flooded with 50000000000 posts of noise and then it just induces apathy. I've actually told Tammy that my single biggest scumtell in ASoIaF U-Pick was having responded to Thor's posts, and there's a reason I didn't read anything Titus and mastin posted in the TM Large. So I backed off as soon as I got the read on pie that I was aiming for.

I don't know what to think of Mala's claim because I don't know shit about setup spec and I don't think I've ever seen a motivator claim before. Also, it might be worth having BRO discuss his flavor, maybe?

I don't know who is scum and I haven't been able to fully process this game at all.

Tempted to just vote goodmorning but I lost confidence in the read.

[Empire]

Just before I start reading though, a thought came to me during work about why bork might have died N1 but I don't know if I should discuss it in the thread since it involves setup spec related stuff.

Would really like some clarification on whether I should discuss this by the way (although I recognize I'm being intentionally vague about it).

[Empire]

@Empire: that makes sense. FTR, I did think about Ether's game and you've approached this one notably differently which was part of my paranoia I guess. What about PIE do you like right now?

It has a bit to do with the emotional content of her posts. She was scum in the last game I modded and, while there was a bit in the game where she ramped up the mad against notscience, I find that she's overall pretty robotic and she struggles sometimes to come up with a natural thought processes and just generally playing the emotional game as scum. I think as town she worries a lot more about being right which makes her bits of anxiety and feeling lost read genuine. I think there's been a lot of meat to the reads she's had in this game, for example the read on you, and while I don't always agree with what she has to say, the manner in which she discusses them and lays it all out there gives me the impression that she genuinely believes them and is deliberating through them (the sorta waffly read she gave on Tammy is a good example of this).

[Empire]

Oh, and I also want to add that the nature/speed of this game kinda adds to what I'm saying. She's a lot more careful with what appears in the thread when she's scum, whereas here, it seems like she's just posting her thoughts unfiltered.

[Empire]

I'm going to hang out with my friend who is on leave this week (he's in the navy) so I will be out but I will try to sneak peeks at my phone when I can.

[Empire]

Ya, I just looked back at Pie's progression on me.

For shame, Empire. It looks pretty emotional, rather shallow, and certainly the opposite of "meaty".

I was going to post a quote wall of all the things Pie said about me but Im sure nobody would care.

Suffice to say the bulk of it happened in 367 and I don't have enough ResidentSleeper emotes in the world to post in response to that case.

I will wait for pie to get back into the game whenever she gets around to it but I disagree completely (at the very least, it was nowhere near as emotional as the posts she was making when she was scumreading me).

---

Meh last few pages, except my notscience townread got stronger.

Something that occurred to me while reading that one notscience post discussing Mala not motivating Nacho. Assuming Nacho is town at all, I wonder why the scum chose to block him despite him redacting the claim? I definitely thought the retraction was real after Syryana flipped. I guess one theory is that the scum have something in their arsenal that makes them believe a tracker is in the setup? (this would make Nacho confirmed town). I don't know, I'm just frantically spitballing before I have to (yet again) head out for the night (another birthday-related thing, this time a movie night).

Probably going to vote goodmorning as she's the closest thing I have to a scumread but there are some things that are giving pause (the sheer amount of townreads she's been dishing out being one of them, as the idea is that she'd be restricting her options in a game like this as scum).

I still want some input on whether I should openly discuss my borkdeath theory.

[Empire]

Before I go to bed, really quickly: I thought the reason bork might have died is because the mafia could have thought he was in some sort of masonry or something role-related like that with Nati or maybe they even thought they were the B+G (though it'd be a bit silly considering how bork opened this game)? In my mind, when I thought about it, it could explain why bork townread Nati so strongly as he did basically throughout the entire game despite her not really posting much. The whole idea behind this and the reason I felt so strongly about bringing it up is because it would confirm Nati as town (as they would not have killed bork on this theory if Nati were scum) and she's been in my blind spot for basically the whole game.

Of course, there are some conventional explanations for why bork died. It could be because, silly people notwithstanding, he was widely considered obvtown and they just wanted to get rid of an unlynchable player. Or maybe he was actually on the right track (although I can't remember off the top of my head who he suspected). But I think it's still worth thinking about since I didn't expect him to die and based off of reactions, I don't think a lot of you guys did either.

I don't know if I'm explaining this well and writing this I feel pretty silly even bringing it up but here you go.

[Empire]

Very quickly before I go to work, but Tammy, it's because by saying all of this, I feel like I'm effectively claimimg my role (or at least what I am not).

[Empire]

I'm still catching up but jesus fucking christ this game is stupid. Can we just massclaim already since we have like 3 outed PRs and an outed VT?

[Empire]

def theater. how it constantly gets brought up again and again feels like it supports that

If it were theater, I at least would have kept the fight going to drown the thread in bullshit (+ it gives me something easy to talk about). And I can't control what other people talk about. If AP (who is obvtown at this point by the way), wants to constantly ask me and other people about it, then that's his thing, not mine.

I still really think we should massclaim dudes.

[Empire]

Why the fuck would pie use the phrase "under the right circumstances" if her intention was to soft a B or G claim? It seems like she would have just said "it would have confirmed me as town" period.

[Empire]

Actually, thinking it over again, why would pie say that at all since her confirmation would be "she dies"? I mean, I use the phrase "confirmed town" when I'd be confirmed town alive.

[Empire]

I won't be around from now until deadline but I don't have confidence in anything right now to put down a vote between the two BG claims (and I guess it might be possible for there to be two of them, although it seems a bit silly considering any scenario where the BGs would BG each other and one of them gets targetted for a nightkill). To be honest, I hated everything Marquis posted aside from his claim but the way he claimed seemed pretty town to me. And I also just have a hard time letting go of old strong townreads.

Vote: goodmorning

This vote is sticking, so later! (fuck my life)

[Empire]

I cannot believe I actually have to pop into this thread to actually point this out to people.

Goodmorning claims her role is so important that she has to stay alive and yet won't claim when she's at L-1 there's like an hour until deadline.

Can someone hammer this?

[Empire]

And for the people who suck at this game like Marquis, I came back, read the game, saw goodmorning getting lynched, said to myself "sweet" and then wanted to go to bed since I have to wake up in like 5 hours. But evidently people still think goodmorning basically didn't just scum claim.

[Empire]

Probably because she can't come up with a plausible, believable PR claim given everything that's already out there?

I can't believe I actually have to explain this. Why the fuck did I agree to this game?

[Empire]

Marquis, I am not personally insulting you (or at least I didn't think I was) and I'm legit sorry if you feel that way, as that isn't my intention. I just get really fucking irritated when accused of intentionally lurking when I'm town.

Anyway, I will be more than happy to eat some serious crow if goodmorning turns out to be town, but I really, REALLY don't think she is.

Going to bed for real now.

[Empire]

Thank god, I think I was going to cry IRL if she turned out to be town.

So looking at the role PM, unless I'm reading it wrong, it seems like there's only one scumbag left. Maybe we should massclaim now?

[Empire]

Yeah, it's possible there's two more, but I want to be optimistic >_>

I have all day tomorrow to actually post and think about this game too, for once.

I just woke up so I'll go through goodmorning's ISO once I finish getting ready.

[Empire]

I have to go in like 30 minutes but I looked through GM's ISO and like the only substantive mention she makes of Mala is that she doesn't like her wagon, saying that her defensiveness wasn't a scumtell and that she doesn't know whether motivator works as a claim or not:

I wasn't that into the Mala wagon to begin with, mostly because the best reason to scumread her was defensiveness and she hadn't really been around to go on the offensive before she had to take the defensive. I don't know how likely Motivator is to be an actual claim in a Blitz or any game, but I don't find it that unbelievable.

The thing that strikes me as off about this is that she doesn't put forth any affirmative reasons for Mala to be town, just refuting the stuff people put forward as reasons for scumreading her.

[Empire]

Also potentially of note is that Marquis really wanted to lynch Empire. I've been waffling hard on Empire, currently a bit town on him. Killing Marquis for that reason would make sense if Empire is scum but thats only one of many possible reasons for Marquis dying.

I'm still catching up but I stumbled onto this post. This would require me being afraid of Marquis and, no offense to the guy, he doesn't scare me in the slightest. Incidentally, there are two people in this game I'd be legitimately afraid of if I was scum and they're both still alive.

[Empire]

I just finished reading and I think my ability to scumhunt just leaked out of my brain while I've not been playing.

I don't know who the scum are. :/

The setup as presented so far has been really, REALLY bothering me so I still think a massclaim might be something useful.

[Empire]

It also bothers me because notscience seems like he is WAY to cocky in his own townieness to be scum.

I'm going to ISO him again.

[Empire]

Also, more food for thought is that GM seemed really reluctant to actually claim her fake PR, which suggests to me that she couldn't come up with a plausible one. This is even weirder when you consider, at least looking at the role PM, that scum have daytalk so presumably this would have been easy to plan out.

[Empire]

Mara really.

I mean you really haven't done much but whiteknight GM and if she flips scum somehow you're going to look really bad.

I think this thing right here is way worse.

I looked at notscience and I'm still not seeing what you're seeing at all, Nacho. (Beyond sometimes GM feels like she is making conversation with NS just to make conversation, although that could just be more on her end rather than them both being scum.)

[Empire]

I'm going to back away slowly and run out of the room then >_>

In all seriousness, I've been increasingly skeptical of Ceph since I feel like he's sorta been there but not really there. I will say, though, that he did have the opportunity to bail out of the GM wagon and didn't.

Ceph and BRO (because of his claim) have been in my blind spot for most of the game so I feel like they are probably due a re-read. (Nati's been there too but the GM interactions make her way more likely town).

[Empire]

Also,

because I don't want to admit to being wrong

I am skeptical of the idea that there are two scum remaining. I feel like the wincon alone makes this pretty scumsided and BRO's claim, if it's real, is negative utility. Not to mention the lovers. Roleblocker/Rolecop combo with just two scum might be enough to balance it out?

[Empire]

They're not really scumreads, more like "hey, I kinda forgot about these guys, maybe I should re-read them" reads.

[Empire]

Dude, I'm going to be so upset if it turns out that the scum team is really just GM/Mala and I had it figured out on D1 and then I spent the rest of the game taking the really long convoluted mess of a route to getting to where I was before.

[Empire]

Man, this prod rule is ridiculous.

I'll post after work when I'm not staring at another computer screen clicking things and drawing boxes.

[Empire]

Meh, I don't think Nati is scum for that post (although it did make me lol) and the stuff with GM makes me think she's more likely town anyway.

[Empire]

Prod dodging, since I won't be able to post until after work.

[Empire]

Something that I thought of at work: isn't having 2 BGs and a motivator, ironically, a bit duplicative? I feel like having potentially 3 BG actions in a single night is a bit much even for this setup. Someone who knows something a bit more about setup spec than I do can confirm/deny this?

[Empire]

I don't remember much about that game other than it being one of the worst games of mafia I have ever read.

I guess I'll go fish out the setup in a couple of minutes.

[Empire]

Its definitely weird but I was in Cabd's Tales of You game and this is still less weird that that one.

Holy fuck, this setup is a mess (sorry, Cabd, it just is). I don't even know how to begin analyzing the balance in that.

But even just looking at what's been claimed, it just doesn't pass the eye test for me.

[Empire]

Going to be at work so I most likely won't be able to vote before deadline :/

[Empire]

Posting from phone and uh what the fuck is that nightkill?

I have this weird mixture of happiness and anger after seeing that Mala flip.

I don't know how in the hell this thing is balanced with three scum.

[Empire]

Fos nacho for a severe lack of banter directed towards me

[Empire]

Utterly speechless that you guys actually quicklynched pie while I was away.

[Empire]

Like, I almost want to get mislynched just so I no longer have to be in this game and I never thought I'd feel this way, ever.

[Empire]

Whatever.

I don't see the downside to massclaiming and TBH we should have done this yesterday.

I'll post more after work, at lunch now.

[Empire]

Well we can still win this shit seriously. I think we are really getting down to solving this game. But ya I think pie was pretty town.

No shit she was town. The fact that we actually considered the (correct) possibility that there were two BGs in the game after Marquis "counter"claimed is a testament to her townieness here.

What do you think of the Tammy nightkill? I find it incredibly bothersome because I think you and I both know who should have died N3.

I'm going to try re-reading GM and Malakittens to see what's up.

[Empire]

Posts like #812 + #814 look like they make Cephrir more likely town. I don't know how competent Mala is at theater but the way she flips out at Ceph for the vote doesn't look like she's talking to a scumbud. Also, #814 has the added bonus of a GM chainsaw and I don't see why she would mount a chainsaw defense for buddy #2 against buddy #3.

[Empire]

I kinda wish I could go back in time and ask Mala why she had Nati listed as a townread (considering she basically never interacts with her or mentions her posts at all) but too late :/

Mala has a back and forth with BRO re: chainsawing GM that also makes him look pretty unlike a scumbuddy, I think.

The setup still REALLY bothers me. I wasn't expecting a third scum but rolecop/roleblocker/goon + a scum autowin condition vs. a miller + lovers seems a bit ridiculous. Can two BGs, a tracker, and a whatever Syryana was really balance against all that scumsidedness?

[Empire]

I don't think I actually count as negative utility unless we actually have a cop. My PM doesn't make me seem like a universal miller.

Aren't millers supposed to be inherently negative utility? I know it was part of the site meta for a very long time to view miller claims as inherently scummy (although I can't really remember the rationale for why, it's been too long).

I agree with everything Nati said about massclaiming.

[Empire]

3/4 confirmed town in 8 is pretty nice, but 3/4 confirmed town in 6 is way better

The problem is that there is also the odds of 0 additional confirmed town if we don't massclaim. I'd much rather play it safe than take the risk. And I'd REALLY rather win the game today and massclaiming helps that out.

[Empire]

You can argue that I pushed pie when I should have read pie as town. I got paranoid of pie. I expressed paranoia over her in the course of a day and pushed her aggressively so that her reaction would be loud and obvious enough to put my paranoia to rest. She was lynched within 12 hours. Do you really think that I wouldn't have had a moment of paranoia that lasted however long my posting spree yesterday was?

Uh, #2157 makes it seem like you weren't reaction testing her but rather that you were intending to quicklynch her all along.

[Empire]

also, happy new year my friends

[Empire]

Prod dodge, be back in a couple of hours.

[Empire]

Holy shit, I thought the deadline for this was tomorrow night ._.

[Empire]

Bah, I don't really like either of these wagons (but then again, I do wonder if I'd like ANY wagon in the game at this point).

[Empire]

Ugh, whatever.

Vote: notscience

Please kill me tonight if this is town

[Empire]

I don't have much time right now since I have to go to work but I had a very bad day yesterday for reasons I don't want to get into. I will post some stuff to refute Nacho's inanity and I will be around more when I get back. I honestly don't give a fuck if you lynch me right now since my interest in mafia and this game is officially 0...I really want to say autolynch Nacho tomorrow but I don't even really know if he's scum.

A couple of things:

1) Tammy and Nacho would have been dead N1 and N2 had I been scum (ESPECIALLY since Nacho claimed a PR). Even in my best scum game (ASOIAF U-Pick, with Tierce and Tammy both as town), I tried to kill the people that know me immediately (and repeatedly, since our NK attempts failed multiple times). The whole point of the lurkscum thing is that I lurk AFTER I kill the people who would be most likely to identify it. Keeping Nacho alive for so long after both of my scumbuddies died would just be asking for trouble I don't need, so why in the fuck would I keep claimed-PR Nacho alive until Day 6?

2) This game came in at the absolute worst possible time. December included things like my birthday (the 14th), Christmas, and New Year's + a friend of mine in the navy who I haven't seen in years being in town for a week. Honestly, I'm more upset at the fact that I wasn't told ahead of time that this would be a blitz game. Had I know that, I would never have signed up for this game, because I can barely handle regular deadlines, let alone 96 hour ones. I thought about replacing out eons ago but ended up not doing so thinking that I'd be able to weather the storm. And to that end, I'm really sorry to the townies among you for not doing so earlier. I know this looks like an excuse, but I just legitimately had no time for this game.

3) There are several posts I would never make with GM and Mala as my scumbuddies in a million years but I will point these out when I get home.

Be back at around 6PM or so.

One final thing: Nacho, if you're town in this game, I legit have no words for your play and I hope that after my flip you feel embarrassed and humiliated on a level that you've never experienced before so that this kind of shit never happens again.

[Empire]

Oh, just realized I forgot to do this: I'm a VT (obviously).

[Empire]

I'm not talking about being wrong. That's a thing that happens to everyone. I'm talking about trying to rush through and piledrive lynches without thinking. It's this kind of shit that makes mafia insufferable to play and it reminds me of how it used to be back when I was at EM.

[Empire]

I'm still at work but dude are you fucking kidding me right now? Even Tammy, who has a better track record reading me than you, correctly read me as town for the three day phases she was alive in this game. As far as you're concerned, do you really think I would have had the balls to say that I didn't give a fuck what you thought when you wagoned me in the early game? There's literally no way I would have had the confidence to play like that as scum in a million years, especially when you consider that I haven't played a full game in forever. There's literally not a moment in this game where I have been afraid of you or Tammy, because I trust both of you to be able to read me right. If you want to see what town-me looks like when busy, go look at that game Ether modded (it was a mini normal and I can't pull up the link on the phone).

[Empire]

I honestly have no idea and I won't be able to even begin to figure this out until like two hours or so from now (when I get out of work).

[Empire]

What do you think of the stuff I posted on Ceph and BRO? I can't remember what day phase it was but just ISO me to find it.

[Empire]

OK.
Where do we go from here?

Finally back home. What do you think about the setup, too? I find the possibility of autowin had the lovers remained BP (seriously, why the fuck did they activate?) too good to be true.

I wonder if Cabd just expected the mafia to cc B+G or something.

[Empire]

That's one of the many the things I don't understand. It seems like going for the quick win would be something that they would jump on. I can think of two possibilities off the top of my head:

1) They probably thought that, since this is a Cabd setup, there MUST be something the town have to sorta counter the scum wincon so they chose to play it safe.
2) The scum team would have to put two of their own on the line to make it work. We know one is a goon, so that's easily expendable. The third role might be something very important that they didn't want to risk giving up (as well as the role cop).

I think the idea of BP-until-reveal means Cabd was definitely considering a cc situation, since the B+G would have to choose between confirming themselves and losing their BP or doing nothing and risking getting lynched.

P-edit: beginning of the juicy here, I guess.

[Empire]

Also, knowing what we know now, it seems pretty obvious to me that the scum took a shot at AP/Mara on N4. If the scum supposedly have a strongman, why didn't the shot go through? I believe Nacho claims to have been blocked every night so it can't be some strongman/roleblocker alternating thing.

P-edit: yeah, well, you're going to have to go through this first because the idea of actually getting close to confirming you as town is REALLY appealing to me and would make my life way easier so deal with it.

[Empire]

Yeah, I know, but why even have the wincon at all if you're going to make it so ridiculous to even attempt it? For the Epic Lols?

I don't know, this setup is dumb.

*opens up Cephrir's 285 page ISO and cracks knuckles*

[Empire]

Guys if GM is scum then Mala is like 95% chance scum.

It's pretty cool.

Just saw this while reviewing Cephrir. What led you to come to this conclusion? (I believe this post happened before the Mala chainsawing GM thing, but I could be wrong.)

[Empire]

CEPHRIR, A BIOGRAPHY:

I liked that Cephrir seems self-confident enough to say what’s on his mind in #387 and his frustration at not being properly understood (loved “I don't have an angle every time I post or speak” in particular).

I usually think out of the blue posts like #416 are way more likely to come from town. Scum, even experienced ones, tend to be way more concerned with following a narrative and making sure their reads are consistent/backed up with reasons and tend to ignore the little things that make townies town: introspection, personal investment in accuracy, etc. I think this post comes from the mindset of a town player who genuinely wants to do better and be right about stuff and from what I remember of Cephrir-scum, he doesn’t really put as much effort into faking this kind of thing as scum. He also even has the stream-of-consciousness style of posting sometimes, like when he states his townread on AP in #1368, which shows he’s posting his unfiltered thoughts in the thread.

Cephrir doesn’t seem like he’s paying all that much attention or is truly engaged with the game, which I believe is a towntell for him (see: posts like #419). I also really liked the I-don’t-give-a-fuck reaction to Mara’s hardcore push on him starting in #739, I think he would have been more likely to go the appeasement route.

The waffling starting at #1646 around the Marquis/pie stuff also seems really genuine to me given his low opinion of his scum game and that he preferred lynching GM “early” over both of them due to that indecision. Also, I believe Ceph was basically the “swing vote” on the GM wagon because he had the opportunity to switch onto pie when she was the counter (and she was “counterclaimed”) but he ended up not doing so. Given his posts about pie, it would have been really easy for him to stick onto that wagon and not have to worry about losing cred.

I think he takes way too long to state some townreads (as in, by name, not just “I have some townreads”) but that seems to be a product of the struggling rather than the scumming. Oh, and there's also the interaction stuff I mentioned earlier (still think #814 points very strongly towards him being town).

[Empire]

Ugh, as soon as I posted that, I just felt this horrible tinge of "man, if Cephrir is scum, I'm going to be utterly humiliated."

I'm going to take a break for a bit and then go through BRO.

[Empire]

ok come on you know I meant town game >_>

[Empire]

I don't deny that Mala might be able to theater like she did in #812 but #814 really gives me the vibe that she is trying to discredit Ceph-town because he's on target and is the easiest person to snipe at because he doesn't have much presence and he was kinda nonchalant about the whole thing.

[Empire]

Oh BRO can ignore my question, for some reason, I was thinking of Mala chainsawing GM against Ceph and not Nacho (which she also did).

[Empire]

Cool I'm caught up now.

Not lynching in {AP, Tammy, NS, GiF, Pie}

Would prefer lynching in GM and Mala

This game is feeling a little too easy/circlejerky, though, which makes me uncomfortable.

What do you think about this though? He's throwing out five townreads and two of them are very easily mislynchable players, at least IMO, and just zeros in on the two flipped scum. Seems like he'd just be boxing himself in pretty hard pretty early if he's scum.

[Empire]

Why do you think Tammy died when she did? It seems like a frankly bizarre kill in that why couldn't they just kill you or block you/take a shot at the lovers?

[Empire]

No, I mean N3 for everything in that post. And why not take a second shot at the lovers that night?

P-edit: The bork kill seems weird as fuck to me still and I have no clue what to think about it. You may be right, though.

[Empire]

God, you suck. >_> (although that's a great song by a great band)

P-edit: I mean, I personally don't see THAT much of a loss if pie successfully saved since I don't remember there being a shortage of mislynchable people at the time.

[Empire]

I'm still going through BRO's ISO and his whole thing is a big wall of meh but he does have that one post I pointed out and I do like a lot of the "ugh I used to be good at scumhunting" kind of posts.

P-edit: I know, no worries buddy

[Empire]

I get what you're saying, I just need to actually reread that part of the game for context and I probably won't be able to get to that tonight since I have to wake up at 6 AM for work.

(Also, BRO's not getting a big wall, sorry.)

[Empire]

I'm still going through BRO's ISO and his whole thing is a big wall of meh but he does have that one post I pointed out and I do like a lot of the "ugh I used to be good at scumhunting" kind of posts.

Having finished now, this is still what I'm thinking and the claim could really go either way on reevaluation. Gotta reread that one part of the game when I get back from work tomorrow to fully form an opinion.

[Empire]

Still at work but it is 100% within Mara to actually pop the IC like that (see: the TM Open) and the timing of it (in reaction to Nati) seems like it'd be way too much of a coincidence to be anything else.

[Empire]

A random curiosity:

@mod: would pie's role have counted as a protective role for the purposes of action resolution or a hypothetical strongman's power?

[Empire]

mala ignored nati/empire/bro pretty much the same amount

nati the most, bro slightly less, empire the least out of that group (started to back away from townread on him near the end).
ceph probably looks good as a result though.

Just got back. Better question is how does Mala typically react when being bussed?

(Going to read Natirasha, this is going to be an adventure).

[Empire]

i hate scum who leave me alive

With every IRL day that passes in this game, I envy bork more and more.

[Empire]

I would have gone with the counterclaim as scum for obvious reasons >_>

Anyway, hopping to it.

[Empire]

Hey Nacho are you power? You can say so, I don't mind.

Okay cool, I figured as such.

Well then, what to do now.

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa why do these posts have to exist

[Empire]

Also there was a place in the ISO where Bork pointed out something to AP that was actually a bride/groom slip, which in retrospect is kind of funny.

Wait, hold up. Where is this again?

[Empire]

Yeah, but what is even the motivation for posting something like that in the game?

[Empire]

Oh, I thought you meant a post that looked like BRO had B/G slipped himself somehow and I was like "what?"

P-edit: Yeah, but is that really worth potentially painting a target on you? If she's trying to figure out the setup, why not just keep that to herself?

P-p-edit: Sorry, but the idea that I would nightkill bork and MARQUIS over Nacho and Tammy is just laughable. I'm not afraid of either of them.

[Empire]

TBH, I almost want to get lynched today just so I can guarantee that I won't be around in 3p lylo.

I hate myself so much.

[Empire]

Also, if Nati is scum, why the fuck would she nightkill bork (the guy who was townreading her the strongest)?

This game makes no sense.

P-edit: I'm seriously expecting a skype message from Regfan post-game telling me how it was obvious all along.

[Empire]

Holy shit, Nati's ISO so far is so devoid of content, it's almost like a postmodern work of art.

P-edit: get wrecked, fucker

[Empire]

INB4 Nati is actually scum and we almost lost a game to someone who is posting what appears to be thinly disguised prod dodges.

[Empire]

OK OK OK, that ISO was pretty bare.
I wonder why she townread Mala.

More curious to know why Mala townread HER, honestly.

[Empire]

dude, I'm still reading but I keep getting distracted by this thread blowing up, calm yourself

[Empire]

q: what does a nati scum game look like to those of you in the know?

[Empire]

For some reason, I thought you actually preferred scum but I didn't have any basis for that assumption, just a lame vague recollection.

[Empire]

Ugh, I just read through that FakeGod game and Nati might have a point about really hating being scum because she just totally folded in that game and she's actually putting up a fight here.

Gah.

[Empire]

And also she marginally but noticeably gave more of a shit here than in that one (ex: the posts last day phase where she tried to push a massclaim).

[Empire]

I'm taking a break right now, I can't handle this.

Literally have 0 idea who the scum is.

And if you're going to force me to make a stand, fuck off.

[Empire]

I'm still at work, but if I had been scum, we would not be having this conversation as Nacho would have been dead eons ago.

[Empire]

I'm out of town today so I will be back tonight at around 7PM EST.

I think rereading the entire game is in order.

[Empire]

I was going around and quoting all the posts last day phase with Nacho defending me but this stupid computer for whatever reason didn't save any of them so just imagine they are here.

In the small microcosm of the last day phase, of course I'd kill Ceph and take my chances trying to persuade Nacho to hammer Nati, given all of those posts. Killing Nati would just potentially put me in the awkward position of having to argue against someone whom I had just recently wrote a big wall the previous day explaining how he was town. Killing Nacho would just get rid of my strongest defender in a game state where I would need to take whatever I can get.

Of course, I still think this conversation is silly because:

1) Objectively, there is no telling how Nacho would have acted after seeing BRO's townflip.
2) In the context of the overall game, see #2866.

[Empire]

I was waiting to see if you were going to quickhammer and, man, you have no idea how embarrassed I was going to be if I wrote that big wall yesterday and you had turned out to be scum >_>

Vote: Natirasha

So I haven't been in a lylo before and the way that I used to do this on EM is that I would always make a case for myself being town + the other person being scum. I'll get on that and also answer any questions you have about my play.

[Empire]

Did you have anything that affected the BP-status of the B+G?