Blitz 16: Blitz Greatest Idea Mafia(GAME OVER)

[davesaz]

VOTE: RC
I'm gonna think scum at some point.

[davesaz]

One thing to keep in mind is that unless things were modified the deck had all possible role combinations, minus impossible ones.
Then modifiers are added completely randomly without regard to the roles that were dealt or picked.
It's possible that the modifiers mess with roles in the game, but probably more likely that they have no effect other than to WIFOM us to death.
Still, I see it as protown to claim modifiers which could have bad effects, just like you'd claim miller in a regular game.

[davesaz]

So I'm coming here to do two things.
First off, claim my modifier; I received miller, so I will investigate as guilty to cops.

Second off, to make a request:

I want everyone to list the cards they got on the first draw, along with what their decision from those cards was.

I will read the thread when I get home from work. (On lunch break right now.)

I would have thought that Miller is a role, not a modifier. But upon checking the setup I see that there is in fact a 1/75 chance to get miller as a modifier to another role.

What do you expect to see from reveal of the 1st set of cards?

[davesaz]

I got a weird draw 1st time.

Mafia Seer
Two-shot Commuter
Survivor Bloodsucker

With my record of getting lynched early and often, survivor was out of the question. Bloodsucker creates a treestump, and I wouldn't wish that on anyone.
I literally flipped a coin between Mafia Commuter and Town Seer, and it came up mafia.

[davesaz]

I would have thought that Miller is a role, not a modifier. But upon checking the setup I see that there is in fact a 1/75 chance to get miller as a modifier to another role.

By noting the odds are you implying that you're skeptical of the claim?

Nope, just being accurate. 3 of the other modifier claims have the same odds.

[davesaz]

I almost picked vanilla townie. Not picking one shot cult leader was easy

Especially considering the cult cards were supposed to be removed from the game.
Spreading misinformation to hide the scum card you actually picked?
VOTE: lane0168

[davesaz]

So I'm coming here to do two things.
First off, claim my modifier; I received miller, so I will investigate as guilty to cops.

Second off, to make a request:

I want everyone to list the cards they got on the first draw, along with what their decision from those cards was.

I will read the thread when I get home from work. (On lunch break right now.)

I would have thought that Miller is a role, not a modifier. But upon checking the setup I see that there is in fact a 1/75 chance to get miller as a modifier to another role.

What do you expect to see from reveal of the 1st set of cards?

This post shows davesaz actually does fact check. I find it hard to believe he didn't in my case.

What I think happened is he saw my cult post. Checked it with the rules considering it was a new role. And upon seeing it, decided to go with the accusations in an attempt to look like town.

VOTE: davesaz

I read the rules before they were changed, and remembered that cult was excluded. It came as a complete surprise that it had changed.

[davesaz]

I got a weird draw 1st time.

Mafia Seer
Two-shot Commuter
Survivor Bloodsucker

With my record of getting lynched early and often, survivor was out of the question. Bloodsucker creates a treestump, and I wouldn't wish that on anyone.
I literally flipped a coin between Mafia Commuter and Town Seer, and it came up mafia.

I don't like that you couldn't just say "I picked scum"

Also your reasoning argues you shouldn't have picked survivor or scum

Scum can win if their team win, survivor loses if they are lynched. I would never voluntarily pick a survivor role.
I report RL events accurately, if I say anything about them at all. This is an invariant with me. It is not alignment indicative, but I get very upset if you question a narrative about what I actually did.

[davesaz]

I understand that. I believe you were surprised. I just don't believe you didn't go check before posting. The way you did when you thought miller was a role, and not a modifier

I had looked at the cult thing before it was changed, and I knew that I had looked. I had faith that it would not change.
Frankly I don't think it's tenable in a small game (better suited to large) but if the mod chooses to go that way so be it.

The miller thing was not something I had looked at before. I initially wrote a post that was going to say "miller isn't a modifier" but then I realized that I didn't actually

know

the answer. Now that I have read it, I do know. If someone edited the wiki right now, I'd swear to it having its prior contents till I read the change myself.

[davesaz]

Reading:
{Smithereens, Wednesday}
{Frozen Angel, Flubbernugget}
{davesaz}
{BlackStar, lane0168}
{RadiantCowbells}
{Persivul, Starbuck}
{Almost50}

I'd be interested to hear what you saw from Smithereens and Starbuck.

[davesaz]

Lane's reaction to my test was reasonable, and I got to see who else noticed. It has served its purpose.
UNVOTE: lane0168

Wednesday edited Ranger's list instead of making up their own. I don't like the method used because if someone read just the 2nd post they could be misled on Ranger's reads. And I don't like the "won't vote until it's time to hang someone" attitude. This might merit some investigation.

I agree with the observation that Almost50 is focusing too much on information and not enough on scumhunting.
VOTE: Almost50

[davesaz]

It would look scummy, of course.

[davesaz]

Though I did point out that editing it in that manner is confusing.

Pedit: Still begs the question, they're both on top of each other's lists.

[davesaz]

It would look scummy, of course.

So you did see that there was cult in the reroll?

Davesaz did I miss your answer?

I thought this was very clear, but...
I was unaware until people started responding to 95. At the point in time of that post I had not seen the OP change nor noticed what your discard was.

[davesaz]

I'm just trying to figure out what the test was?

To see if you'd try to give runaround / obfuscate, or be straight. Straight it is.

[davesaz]

Flubbernugget managed to come in and comment on a bunch of stuff, but take no definitive stances. Not liking that one bit.

[davesaz]

UNVOTE: RC
VOTE: Ranger

I've seen Ranger as town, in a recent game. This doesn't read as his town game.

Please give more specifics. Best if you can point to specific posts.

[davesaz]

davesaz : well he is kind of lost in reading the game I guess, or I am lost in reading him. his not making game progressive anyway. very very slight scum lean. and I have 1 finished game with him.

No, I'm kinda the last person to read the game in a "posting cycle" because I'm in one of the westernmost time zones (UTC - 7).

[davesaz]

Wednesday's crumb / soft / wink can be read multiple ways. Frozen jumping on it is townish, votes piling on for that reason is questionable. Refusal to fullclaim doesn't bother me.

I immediately got "joke" on reading the mason post and reply. I expect there to be some opportunism in the responses to it.

Almost50 is redeemed in my eyes, getting a town read there now.
UNVOTE:

[davesaz]

Lane, why did you put Wednesday at L-2? Your vote doesn't give a reason.

[davesaz]

stop being mean to me persy

I think that's a pretty good indicator that it would be a waste of effort. If I'm reading it right.

Pedit: Of course if RC doesn't mean 527 to be read the way it sounds, then it shouldn't be posted that way, especially twice in a row like that

[davesaz]

Was the ratio 6:7 meant to be scum to town? Because it's normally stated town:scum and the worst it can be is 7:6 (>50% must be town).
Having 6 non-town and all be the same faction is extremely unlikely but in this setup we should do our very best and not waste any opportunity to scumhunt.

[davesaz]

One possible scenario - the other kind of scum are on that wagon already?
Less than 16 hours with not much looking like it's going to move.

VOTE: Wednesday_

L-1 if I counted right.

[davesaz]

@Frozen answer to your question, I like to play because it's fun.

[davesaz]

Did I specify what? Answer given.

[davesaz]

You're gonna bet that someone's preference for playing town overrides everything else?

[davesaz]

Droog was WW and replaced Starbuck.
Does Jackal make sense as teammate to Starbuck/Droog?

[davesaz]

What if the dead WW was the result of a PGO?
I want to make sure we don't rule out possibilities prematurely.
Two gun kills could be Mafia + Vig, Mafia + PGO, Vig + PGO. Maybe others that I haven't even thought of.
The claimed vig miss doesn't need to be a redirect, it could be a block combined with one of the other possibilities above.
And the nature of the setup allows for multiple vigs or even a WW vig as a possibility.

Pedit: Yeah, but I wanted to specifically ask if being a partner with Starbuck makes sense. Kinda hard to tell with that slot being basically empty...

Pedit2: Sure a wagon is fine but let's allow ourselves enough time for analysis.

[davesaz]

My question about Jackal is based on a hunch that he's not mafia. Hence the way he could be scum would be if he's WW (and hence partner with Starbuck/Droog).
Remember in MB that scum teams hunt. Jackal as WW could rolecop FA and be telling his teammate (if there is another) that FA is likely town so said teammate (if any) can move on to other candidates for mafia.

[davesaz]

Here's another clue --

I'm town but I want to look scummy so I'm not NK'd

. And you should check my discard.
Then kindly pull your heads out and unvote.

Pedit: I make no assumptions about there being daychat, that's why.

[davesaz]

Was that supposed to be he can't be mafia?

[davesaz]

Why are you sure he can't be ww?

[davesaz]

Assuming I didn't miss anything I have this

Available Info

Alive
1. Frozen Angel - Discard Survivor, claim watchlisted
2. Almost50 - Discard Vanilla Cop, no claim early
3. Smithereens - Discard Werewolf Roleblocker, claim gravedigger, claim vig
6. Radiant Cowbells - Discard Bodyguard, no modifier claim, claim can't be lynched
7. Jackal711 - Discard Vanilla Townie, no modifier claim, claim Rolecop
8. Ranger - Discard Werewolf, claim miller modifier
9. Persivul - Discard FBI Agent, claim hirsuite modifer
11. BlackStar - Discard Cop, no claim
12. Flubbernugget - Discard Tree Stump, no claim
13. Davesaz - Discard Double Voter, no claim

Dead
4. Wednesday_ - Discard Mafia Jailkeeper, no claim, Flipped Survivor PI
5. Starbuck - Discard Hider, no claim, flipped WW FBI
10. lane0168 - Discard Cult Leader, Flipped town neighbor FBI

Notes:
Modifiers don't have any bearing on roles or alignments, roles are not necessarily natural for their alignments
Discards typically rule out the discarded role but don't rule out the discarded alignment (if given)

[davesaz]

Radiant Cowbells - Discard Bodyguard, no modifier claim, claim can't be lynched

But that IS the modifier, my friend.

Knowing RC, that isn't necessarily the modifier. There have been some other things I've seen him post which imply he means he won't be lynched if he claims.

[davesaz]

Jackal can only be scum if FA is wrong about the implications of what he claimed.

[davesaz]

Towen cop.
Fuck off.

[davesaz]

Jackal is not mafia.

[davesaz]

Maybe I need a break from assholes.

[davesaz]

How dare you be not sure?

[davesaz]

@FA: No, but I accept the lol in the spirit it appears to have been given

@RC: What do you mean "OTed the lynch to someone else"?

Governor doesn't need to be a town role. Think of how the cards work. It takes an alignment from one card and role from the other.
Example 1: Mafia Goon + Town Governor -> Mafia Governor
Example 2: Cult Leader + Town Governor -> Cult Governor (??)
Example 3: Town Governor + Mafia Goon -> Town Vanilla

I appreciate how you think FA is town, and agree that if you're going to use your role (thereby proving you don't have a different one) that governing a very strong town read is the safest use of a somewhat antitown role. If you're town. But you could just as easily be scum governing town to appear to look town.

Meanwhile what safer way for scum to get rid of a cop than by not "getting" the soft and pushing him past a trigger point.

UNVOTE: Just in case
VOTE: Flubbernugget

BTW, I hope there is a protective of some sort.

[davesaz]

Regarding governor, my best guess is that we should use the definition from the modified greatest idea page:
Governor:
During the day, you may post 'GOVERN: playername'. They will be unable to be lynched.

Assuming that definition is the correct one, the person using the role is the governor, not the target of the role. FA does not become a governor with the ability to stop a lynch.
So RC should be lynchable, unless his modifier is unlynchable. If he were a cult unlynchable governor that would be an OP role and the mod should reject it IMO. Unless being 1-shot or 2-shot is sufficient compensation.

I also find it strange that RC used the role on someone who had only one vote and is unlikely to be a lynch target in any case. The stated reason "to prove my role" strikes me as a getting towncred move, which is something that RC does when scum. If he's two-shot maybe he thinks he can get run up and then govern himself, but it's a tactic which works only once or twice and he's used one already.

Persivul tracking me makes sense. Like I said earlier, I was trying to be a little scummy so that scum would not have "too town to lynch" as a reason to NK me.

[davesaz]

Another thing, townblocks creep me out, because founding or getting along with a townblock is a favorite way for scum to sneak to a win. From the town perspective, sure it's nice to feel safe that you have identified a bunch of town, but pretty much all endgames result from scum infiltration of the townblock (whether anyone is talking about it openly or not).

[davesaz]

Why would we want to clear people based only on "not WW"? Especially considering the evidence points to it being likely there is also a mafia faction...

[davesaz]

I don't entirely trust this change in direction, as it's equally probable for scum to drop an attack that doesn't look like it will work, but the scumhunting looks real enough if I subtract the short-lived negative personal aspect.
UNVOTE: Flubbernugget

I'm becoming quite suspicious of Blackstar. Town can be wrong and often are, and those do look like legit scumhunting moves, but the timing and nature of the wrongness gives me a bad feeling.

[davesaz]

Back up a second. Were there multiple Bus Driver claims, or was one of them a redirector?
I'm working right now so I can't go 100% on working this out for a few hours, but

I solve logic puzzles for a living

.
Townfolk, please be very precise on what you're claiming to have done. Given that accuracy, I'll be able to figure out who can be lying and what their lies could be.
I'd appreciate if it's still day when I get off work.

[davesaz]

@FA

If RC really is macho, then your doc had no effect.
Unless your action didn't go to RC either. That's pending my full review which will be later.

[davesaz]

Let's represent the bus drive as a change in who gets targeted.
Top row of each couplet is who the action is requested against.
Bottom row is who actually gets targeted.
P=Pers, R=RC, S=Starbuck

PRS initial state. suppose BlackStar goes first
RPS is the new state, swapped P and R. An action targeted to the person in the 1st row goes to corresponding column in the 2nd row

Now we have this
PRS
RPS busdrive Pers and Starbuck (which becomes busdrive RC, Starbuck)

PRS
SPR so P->S; R->P; S->R

Fire kills p, which gets sent to S.
FA docs R, which gets sent to P.

If P was the target of the WW kill that would result in the observed result of no WW kill. Obviously we're not going to get a claim on that unless there is a watcher or tracker who happened to see it.

I have not looked at the busdrives in the opposite direction, but will make the observation that Blackstar claimed to have sent his action "at beginning of night". The mod might use the simple expedient of tie goes to first submitted.

[davesaz]

Checked the opposite direction and it doesn't come close to working.
PRS; swap P & S
SRP; swap P & R which swaps S & R
RSP

p->r; r->s; s->p clearly doesn't work. Fire kill goes to RC, FA's doc goes to Starbuck

[davesaz]

If someone killed me where would it go?

For scenario 1, R goes to P, so a kill at you would go to Pers. Thinking FA is WW, tried to kill you, and is trying to claim doc as explanation of the missing kill?

[davesaz]

Scratch that, Pers would have died. But both the doc and kill would redirect to the same place.

[davesaz]

I'm town, but I think your previous list which showed several roles as potentially scum was on the right track. Limiting the choices to Ranger and Flubber feels wrong. Further limiting it to just one of them feels even more wrong.

[davesaz]

Sometimes a post refers to what one player has said before but the target audience is other players.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Flubb

this is more like it ...

I feel a bad vibe here

Scum. You previously narrowed it down (incorrectly) to Ranger and Flub based on claims. Now that you know Flub made a claim that's likely to be town, you logically should be voting Ranger.

This makes it sound like you think FA has eliminated everyone but Ranger and Flubbernugget as possible scum. Is that what you're saying? And where did you get it from?

[davesaz]

I'm thinking there might be too much specific focus on WW / Mafia, where focus should be more generally Scum. Also too much role analysis that is single-ball centric and does not apply to a MB game. For example there are a lot of roles which are useless to scum in a SB game but very useful in MB. Plus I get a purely numbers-based feel that the group of people with town-sounding roles probably includes a scum or two.

[davesaz]

Why would someone with Coroner as a choice pick scum as an alignment? And why would lynching someone claiming that role be a priority for town?

[davesaz]

Has anyone actually made a good push this game. People are forgetting to scumhunt to try and Crack the setup

Scum frustration at not being able to make a bogus case stick perhaps?

[davesaz]

@Almost50 : If you announce who you are busdriving, scum can just switch their targets. Unless your plan includes that.

Flubber, who are you willing to agree on?

Pedit: Flubber loses that match, I won't lynch the coroner.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Flubber

[davesaz]

Can you clarify the swaps please? I did target someone and got a not mafia, but have doubts about who my investigation actually revealed.

[davesaz]

My result did NOT include a name. It just said the result was not mafia.

[davesaz]

Almost didn't say if he did 2 swaps.

[davesaz]

My target was BlackStar.
SLOW THE FUCK DOWN PEOPLE.

[davesaz]

ABJ
A swap with B
BAJ
A swap with J
BJA

actions are A->B, B->J, J->A, so I checked Jackal again. Nice...

[davesaz]

Because I'm a cop. My results are mafia or not mafia.

[davesaz]

BlackStar could indeed be mafia, no reason you can't have a mafia busdriver.
Need Ranger's result!

[davesaz]

Because that is not where my action went.

Pedit: correct (Persivul)
Pedit2: incorrect because my action did not go to you (BlackStar)

[davesaz]

I want to know why BlackStar thinks my result applies to him at all, if he was busdriven.

[davesaz]

That's a slip, IMO (BS's reaction). But need Ranger's action.

[davesaz]

Ranger claimed a miller modifer. A cop investigation there is useless.

[davesaz]

If RC and BS are scum partners, RC would have suggested Ranger be busdriven. You would track Ranger to someone else other than lane.

[davesaz]

Hmm, you'd track the target instead. So for example if Ranger was busdriven with me, maybe you'd track Ranger to my target, or if that target was also busdriven through to the ultimate destination? Don't know how to resolve tracks in the face of busdrives. IN any case, random confusion results and we might try to lynch you as a liar when you can't give a coherent track result.

[davesaz]

Is that a 3P claim?

[davesaz]

I'll go over the logic again in a bit. Looks incriminating for now. Still wonder how ranger didnt become maf tgt.

[davesaz]

If I were scum, I could have claimed a guilty and used that mislynch to win.
What do you get if you remove me from the pool of possibles?
On top of that Mafia Cop is a useless role in a game with mafia + ww, it only makes sense for mafia+SK and 2mafia.

Mafia Coroner makes sense in a game with any other killing role. Mafia Busdriver is a thing, and so is Mafia Governor.

If Ranger is trying to set up BS, she picked the most believable suspect and/or was afraid to try to set up RC. I can believe both of those hypothesis.

[davesaz]

Save you from what?

[davesaz]

I'll watch y'all and see if someone slips.

It's a workday and I need to do some rereading. Either Ranger or BlackStar could be scum and I'm not decided on which one I believe more.
If there are two, I have RC as the most likely to be 2nd.

[davesaz]

@RC if you think she's town then you shouldn't have voted her. People scumreading you just have more reason to do so when you call someone town and then vote them like that.
At deadline as a compromise lynch sure, but we aren't even 24 hours into the phase.

Using a govern on a townie who iirc only had 1 vote and wasn't even in danger of being scumread was another example of an action that pinged scum really hard.

BTW I still haven't decided whether I think Ranger or Blackstar is mafia. I haven't checked if that was really a hammer or not either.

[davesaz]

I for one did not think that lynching Ranger was a good idea. I said all along that I wasn't sure yet. RC needs to use a narrower brush.
I'm waiting to see who Almost switched. I'd hate for this to end with derp after all.

[davesaz]

Are you a survivor? Doesn't affect the result any more but I'm curious why you jumped on the Ranger wagon. The only explanation that made sense was that you might have been concerned we'd turn to you instead of BlackStar as an alternative compromise.

[davesaz]

I did not participate in that lynch, unless you're claiming that waiting to vote BlackStar until after you had already hammered counts as participating.
It is providing great insight into your personality though, and I'm looking forward to using that understanding for reading you better in the future.

[davesaz]

My target RC (redirect to BlackStar?) result mafia.

VOTE: BlackStar

I did call that reaction (what do you mean not mafia when my modifier affects seers) a scum slip and it would have caused me to vote you instead of Ranger, if the hammer hadn't fallen the wrong way already.

[davesaz]

RC's gonna ask why I targeted him, answer: because I expected hella redirect and choosing randomly was more likely to hit my intended target of BlackStar than going at him directly.

[davesaz]

My target RC (redirect to BlackStar?) result mafia.

VOTE: BlackStar

I did call that reaction (what do you mean not mafia when my modifier affects seers) a scum slip and it would have caused me to vote you instead of Ranger, if the hammer hadn't fallen the wrong way already.

That wasn't a scum slip though. I investigate as not werewolf to FBI agents, so when you said I showed up as not Mafia I confused cops with FBI agents. That's not a slip at all.

Reacting to it at all is the slip, given it was redirected. Plus it showed an unnatural sensitivity to a not guilty result.