Blitz 14: Murder on Madness Mountain GAME OVER!

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Post Post #10 (isolation #0) » Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:07 am

Post by davesaz »

VOTE: Chaotic Neutrality
Unlikely to be neutrality in a 9p, must be a cover for scum. Plus chaos.
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Post Post #22 (isolation #1) » Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:44 am

Post by davesaz »

@Ranger, what puts absinthe on top?

@Rob, I had the same question.

Pedit: absinthe replying in that fashion kinda blunts my question :lol:
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Post Post #43 (isolation #2) » Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:35 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 42, Soren wrote:Are we lynching firebringer yet

Do you have comments on anyone else?
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Post Post #44 (isolation #3) » Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:37 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 41, Ricastle wrote:That's not what I meant. CN was and is voting a person on your wagon and making it clear why he is not on said wagon. That's not being neutral. Your point literally makes no sense.


He tried to recycle the same RVS reason that I gave. I think you're on to something here.

VOTE: Firebringer
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Post Post #51 (isolation #4) » Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:47 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 48, Ricastle wrote:Hey now, you could at least declare L-1.

UNVOTE:

I am actually a bit wary of this wagon now. Mainly because Soren's looking quite shady. Sure the deadlines are short, but this isn't a Marathon. We can take our time at least a little, here, or we'll end up floundering around in the coming days.


Sorry, I didn't notice. :oops:

I didn't like Soren's reply to my question and agree that he looks shady. Thinking that we have scum caught does not obviate the need to look at everyone else.
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Post Post #76 (isolation #5) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:02 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 55, Firebringer wrote:
In post 53, Rob14 wrote:Pretty m much my thoughts, but I'm also trying to keep in mind that people in blitz get this irrational GO GO GO mentality.

I say we GO GO GO on Soren!

VOTE: Soren

In post 56, Rob14 wrote:Some people express Soren concerns and immediately you're trying to start a counter-wagon there to save yourself? There's no way you aren't scum.

In post 57, Firebringer wrote:
In post 56, Rob14 wrote:Some people express Soren concerns and immediately you're trying to start a counter-wagon there to save yourself? There's no way you aren't scum.

lol, in your dreams.


Vote, reaction, reaction to reaction.

Firebringer, why would you be more interested in Rob's reaction than Soren's, to your vote on Soren? What did you think about both of their reactions?
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Post Post #77 (isolation #6) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:03 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 67, Rob14 wrote:We have two days and we're on page 3. Everyone but me, Fire, CN, and Ricastle have 5 posts or less. Can we step it up?

Mere numbers are insufficient to measure activity, though I do agree with the sentiment that the game needs to move faster.
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Post Post #78 (isolation #7) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:14 am

Post by davesaz »

Re: through 75.

Not sure what Soren is actually saying in 71. It's the type of observation where we can infer he means something by it, but not what.
CN's 72 is an interesting jump, how do we infer that? Soren suggests an alternative.
Then in 74, CN tries a different jump, which Soren rejects.

71 could be a prompt, if Fire and Soren were both scum and they didn't have daytalk.
The exchange between Soren and CN could be one scum and one town, don't know which is which.
CN chose to remark on the immediate, could be trying to fish out what Soren is using to read Fire.
Or it could just be a useless exchange because neither one of them actually added analysis to the game.

Ugh, this whole thing got me nowhere, but I'll post it anyway in case it helps someone else.

Actually on preview reflection, this makes me want to see what happened between CN and Soren's last posts and this exchange, to see if either one conveniently skipped something important. Unlikely with the slow pace, but possible.
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Post Post #79 (isolation #8) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:19 am

Post by davesaz »

On further review, I don't see either one of them doing anything but replying in the moment, other than 71.
Could be I looked too fast, but their posts are pretty devoid of content.

Scum theater perhaps? With the objective of getting the Fire wagon started back up?

I really need about 5 people to town it up here so the scum become more obvious. The pace is glacial. :?
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Post Post #94 (isolation #9) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 9:02 am

Post by davesaz »

Perhaps you could give some reads?
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Post Post #107 (isolation #10) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:01 pm

Post by davesaz »

To be fair to Fire, there are several kinds of "playing town oddly". I have a list of people who seem scummier as town, one for those who are chaotic and hard to get a read on at all, one for those whose reads are usually wrong, etc. It's plausible he doesn't like the connotation of "VI" while still understanding that he might fit in an "odd" category. ;)
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Post Post #108 (isolation #11) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:07 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 95, Firebringer wrote:
In post 94, davesaz wrote:Perhaps you could give some reads?

Funny, I don't think reading all your posts you give any reads.


You might be correct on this point, I may not have explicitly.
But it doesn't change the point that it would help us to have some of your reads.
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Post Post #128 (isolation #12) » Sat Dec 19, 2015 7:42 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 122, Chaotic Neutrality wrote:Holiday stuff, unexpected deadlines, etc. I've been a little negligent across the board and meatworld.

I wouldn't say I was called out. More like accused of being buddys, which at this stage of the game with no flips, is a ridiculous argument that doesn't merit response. Sarcasm doesn't come across naturally on the internet, but I'll often point out buddying and announce I've found the scumteam for shits and grins because I'm making fun of people who do that seriously, like you.

Fire is very clearly town this game. I've never played with Rob but going based on reactions etc. I don't think he's town. I'm reading you, Ricastle, as newbtown more than scum at the moment. I've been scumpartners with Ranger and this isn't her scumgame. I will always read Soren as scum, someone else is going to have to tell me what kind of game he's playing. I don't like Dave's play this far.

Those are my reads as of late.

VOTE: Rob13


You didn't say anything about Rob, unless I missed it. Care to share what your case is?
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Post Post #129 (isolation #13) » Sat Dec 19, 2015 7:44 am

Post by davesaz »

NM, I missed it, though "based on reactions" is fairly weak.

What's the strong reason for reading Fire as town?
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Post Post #132 (isolation #14) » Sat Dec 19, 2015 8:34 am

Post by davesaz »

What if some of the people have seen him as both town and scum, and it doesn't look like his town to them?
Would you place a higher value on actions in game or on detecting the subtle differences his frequent opponents can detect?
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Post Post #161 (isolation #15) » Sat Dec 19, 2015 8:08 pm

Post by davesaz »

I'm here and would be willing to vote either Ranger or CN.
Unless someone else is around other than Rob, we're stuck with CN as the only possibility with our 2 votes to swing, since he's already on Ranger.
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Post Post #163 (isolation #16) » Sat Dec 19, 2015 9:08 pm

Post by davesaz »

Pretty worried they're both town. I'd prefer Soren or Jackal, but neither is an option without 2-3 more people online.

VOTE: Ranger L-1

Ranger posted numerous rainbow reads which is more info. I think we'll end up having to switch.
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Post Post #166 (isolation #17) » Sat Dec 19, 2015 9:59 pm

Post by davesaz »

VOTE: CN
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Post Post #188 (isolation #18) » Tue Dec 22, 2015 4:34 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 180, Firebringer wrote:If ranger is scum I can't see Davesaz being her teammate so I guess he would be cleared....
Weird cause I always think he is scum.
Perhaps Jackal? I mean thats a lazy association but meh.

Associations with no scum flips is even more dangerous than usual in a micro.
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Post Post #195 (isolation #19) » Tue Dec 22, 2015 6:55 am

Post by davesaz »

Fire, Rob: why Ranger over Soren?
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Post Post #214 (isolation #20) » Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:56 pm

Post by davesaz »

It would help if you didn't edit out the post numbers. You're ignoring / trying to hide how close the deadline was.
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Post Post #219 (isolation #21) » Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:07 pm

Post by davesaz »

Here's the sequence with post number references. Also note the selective editing.

In post 158, Ythan wrote:Vote Count

Chaotic Neutrality: absinthe, Jackal711, Ricastle (3)
Firebringer: Soren, davesaz (2)
Ranger: Rob13, Firebringer (2)
Rob13: Chaotic Neutrality (1)
Jackal711: Ranger (1)

Not voting: None

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2015-12-20 04:24:00).


I posted this a few minutes after midnight. If I don't move my vote it's almost guaranteed to be a no-lynch.
In post 161, davesaz wrote:I'm here and would be willing to vote either Ranger or CN.
Unless someone else is around other than Rob, we're stuck with CN as the only possibility with our 2 votes to swing, since he's already on Ranger.


And this a few minutes later.
In post 163, davesaz wrote:Pretty worried they're both town. I'd prefer Soren or Jackal, but neither is an option without 2-3 more people online.

VOTE: Ranger L-1

Ranger posted numerous rainbow reads which is more info. I think we'll end up having to switch.
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Post Post #224 (isolation #22) » Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:36 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 222, Ranger wrote:
davesaz wrote:I posted this a few minutes after midnight. If I don't move my vote it's almost guaranteed to be a no-lynch.
I'm quite aware you were willing to vote both top wagons. That's my
point
: CN you had lead-in for, so it makes sense you'd be willing to vote there. (He was a scumread of yours.) But you expressed no reason for why you'd vote me.

No other lynch was even a remote possibility. Your lynch was only possible if someone other than Rob and me was hanging around. Lynch > no lynch.
As town I'm always willing to lynch
someone
vs. no-lynch, other than the obvious cases where a no-lynch is strategic in mylo/lylo situations.

If someone had come in and hammered then we would have had that as an analysis point.
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Post Post #225 (isolation #23) » Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:37 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 223, Ranger wrote:(And, seriously. Why do people keep on thinking I as scum would kill my top townread?)

This is the worst kind of logic. If you're scum blending in with town, and town is townreading your townread, it's actually better to NK your townread.
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Post Post #226 (isolation #24) » Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:41 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 222, Ranger wrote:
I think you killed Ricastle at night to try to dodge the argument about lining up lynches.
I knew Ricastle was a deputy. (That's why Ricastle became my top-townread.) You know why I wouldn't kill them.

This bugs me -- you knew what? :!:
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Post Post #231 (isolation #25) » Wed Dec 23, 2015 5:05 am

Post by davesaz »

In retrospect it's possible scum knew too.
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Post Post #237 (isolation #26) » Wed Dec 23, 2015 4:10 pm

Post by davesaz »

Jackea is L-1.

Hammer intent.
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Post Post #263 (isolation #27) » Thu Dec 24, 2015 6:05 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 234, Ythan wrote:Vote Count

Jackal711: Ranger, absinthe, Rob13 (3)
Ranger: Firebringer (1)
Firebringer: Soren (1)

Not voting: davesaz, Jackal711

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2015-12-25 19:40:00).

In post 237, davesaz wrote:
Jackea is L-1.

Hammer intent.

In post 242, Rob14 wrote:Because keeping him alive and perpetuating the lining up lynches narrative was dangerous to your continued existence. A scum will always kill someone town-reading them if leaving that person alive risks a scum lynch. You're deliberately ignoring my entire explanation of why you would have motivation as scum to kill Ricastle in favor of attacking ... what, exactly? You're not addressing any argument. You're just saying "He was town-reading me, so I wouldn't kill him." That's WIFOM bullshit and you know it. You've never addressed my specific rationale why you would kill Ricastle except to say you weren't lining up lynches, even though it's clear that you were.

VOTE: Ranger

Not letting this scum get away. Both Jackal and Soren get the rope next for being absolutely useless, if not outright scummy.


I'm down for a Rob lynch. Lining up lynches is not a scumtell but obsessing on it is.
I'd still much prefer Jackal, and had given intent. That's another reason to suspect Rob.
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Post Post #267 (isolation #28) » Thu Dec 24, 2015 8:45 am

Post by davesaz »

@Rob:

A is scum; vote A
If I'm wrong and A is town, then B must be scum

How is that a scumtell? I literally do this
all the time
.
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Post Post #269 (isolation #29) » Thu Dec 24, 2015 8:59 am

Post by davesaz »

It wasn't Ranger's first pass at a read. Ricastle started off bottom of the list, moved up a notch, and stayed that way. He was always near the bottom of Ranger's list, until she understood the crumb.
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Post Post #276 (isolation #30) » Fri Dec 25, 2015 10:17 am

Post by davesaz »

VOTE: Jackal
should be L-1


Setting myself an alarm to check back in 2h.
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Post Post #280 (isolation #31) » Fri Dec 25, 2015 5:33 pm

Post by davesaz »

Good thing Rob came along, because I was eating dinner and didn't hear the alarm.
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Post Post #286 (isolation #32) » Sat Dec 26, 2015 9:33 pm

Post by davesaz »

VOTE: Jackal
L-1
not that it's terribly important to declare in this case
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Post Post #399 (isolation #33) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 8:01 am

Post by davesaz »

I called it over in dead chat. Rob did do well to look town enough that I didn't attack him strong for the lining up lynches thing earlier. I also suspected when he hung around at night (RL time) trying to squeeze in the Ranger lynch.

Reflexively going for no lynch with no discussion at all was a killer. Always discuss, at least do the NKA and even VCA before ending the mylo day.
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Post Post #402 (isolation #34) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 8:47 am

Post by davesaz »

Since scum will usually eliminate the most townread player anyway, I even disagree that no lynch is the automatic choice. IMO town should always think about what they do, with very few exceptions.
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