Newbie 963: GAME OVER

[Thian]

If Ythill was concerned about CB, Mcgriddle had voted for CB and continued to argue with CB until he ran out of words then there must really be a problem with CB.

[Earlder1]

Ah, this is quite interesting. I guess we don't know for sure until everyone has checked the thread, but if CB has a vote on Thian and scum do not double vote to win, it means one of two things.

Either:
CB is scum, and so scum cannot win instantly because a townie would still need to be on this wagon. or...
Thian is scum, and so the vote on him cannot lead to a scum win

As mentioned before, this isn't valid until everyone checks the thread because if, say, David and Sarali were the scum pair, they could end the game right now (but Sarali isn't scum so I'm not worried).

This is very interesting.

[sarali]

Oh, I get it. I know what's been bugging me about Earlder's play now. I'm surprised no one else has noticed or called him out on it. Really, Earlder, you aren't being very subtle at all anymore.
I concur, this is very interesting. We might get semi-confirmed townies out of it if we play it right. I'll have to reread Cancer as well now.

CB went after vezo. Vezo was town
CB went after Mcgriddle and mcgriddle was town.

So did you. And Chimp Pants. And Earlder. And me. OH LOOK DAVID IS THE ONLY ONE WHO DIDN'T. Christ, Thian, I'm not that bad.

I'm pretty sure Cancer knows he could get away with not voting for a long time, so if he isn't scum, Thian most likely is. And I'm pretty sure Cancer isn't scum by that admittedly somewhat WIFOM-y bit of logic. Therefore, I must confirm that Thian is scum and then look for the other one in either Earlder or David. I need to finish a full reread to confirm this, though.

[Earlder1]

Not sure what you mean Sarali. Clarification?

[sarali]

You've kind of been softclaiming cop for a while. It was obvious enough I was pretty sure it wasn't subconscious. I'm not sure what to think of it, though.

[imkingdavid]

Alright, I know I promised a post yesterday. Procrastination is pretty much my worst strong trait. (For those of you who care, the reason I haven't posted yet is largely because Starcraft 2 was released and I've been playing that some quite a bit.) For the record, I still am working on that post, but it is going to have to come after this one. I promise to balance my time between this and starcraft, so that I can be around to participate, especially given our current situation.

Anyway, I think it is a pretty interesting situation right now.

Not knowing CB's alignment is what is the most frustrating part right now. If he is town, he could be merely testing the waters and taking a HUGE risk to see if a quicklynch occurs to end the game. However, I don't see that as being very pro-town of a move.
If he is scum, he is just jumping the gun and hoping to convince some townie to vote so that his partner can finish the job.

Which leaves us the following scenarios as possibilities.

• If CB is town and Thian is town, scum can quickly quick-hammer. However, everyone has now checked in and nothing of the sort has occurred, leading me to believe that this is false. I think that at least one of them is scum.
• If CB is scum and Thian is town, like I said just before, he is hoping for a townie to vote so that his partner can hammer and end the game.
• If CB is town and Thian is scum, a quick lynch hasn't happened because there aren't two non-voted scum left to hammer (nor would they want to if they could, considering that that would mean losing a partner)
• If CB is scum and Thian is scum... that's one hell of a bus (or maybe a gambit even). In this case, CB would be waiting for two townies to jump on the wagon, lynch scum, and virtually clear CB tomorrow.

@Sarali: I had noticed some of Earl's softclaiming as well, but I was trying not to call him out on it. Why? Because if he is cop, and he has a guilty, that means we can lynch the guilty result today, but then we lose our cop, and we're stuck not knowing who the final scum is come the next day.

BTW @ Earl, the biggest hint, and probably what Sarali was referring to just now, was

(but Sarali isn't scum so I'm not worried).

but there have been a few other hints throughout the game that may or may not have been intentional on your part.

Of course with that in mind, that could be a scum slip just as easily. Although I'm not sure if a scum would actually type that... you'd have to be very dense to not realize that. So I'm leaning more of a cop softclaim.

---

In any case, I don't see CB's choice to "test the waters" and vote so rashly to be a pro-town move. Whether that makes him scummy or not, I'm not sure, but it definitely put us in a bind and could quite easily have ended the game right there.

[CancerBottle]

Cancerbottle, explain your buddying to me. it really should be looked into, was Ythill right to suspect you all along?

What exactly do you want explained? I addressed buddying in post #520. Why are you suggesting others look into it?

@ all: reaction to chimp pants being night killed.

It's a bummer, but now that his affiliation is known, we can at least trust that his analysis was earnest.

@ all: What set up do you believe this game is currently.

What do you hope to get from this question? How is set-up speculation helpful?

@all: what do you think of Thian's sudden aggressiveness/change of tone, and the questions he's been asking recently?

Yeah, he's become a lot more insistent and aggressive. In a newbie game, I'd read it as a town-tell. But frankly, I think all the current players are beyond that. So it's null.

I'll continue my responses in another post to keep WoT down, but as far as all the wailing about my vote goes....

Chimp Pants brought up a great point on day 2:

[From post # 575]

Thian: Of course you don't know what the replacements would do. Why would you be so afraid of replacement-scum quickly lynching vezo D1? Isn't that what we want- scum to out themselves by obviously scummy actions? The odds for a successful lynch on D1 are really low- especially for a newbie game with all the nonsense that goes on (in my other game here newbTown fake claimed cop and the self voted D1). How we get to the likely mislynch D1 is important. Scum swooping in and lynching under suspicious circumstances is both unlikely and fortunate for the town. Scum slips are good.

Now that's not to say I was intentionally setting a trap with my Thain vote, I think the man is as scummy as sin, but the fact that players keep bellyaching about it after CP briefly pointed out the opportunity for possible slips is interesting.

[Thian]

Well Sarali, how are you sure I am scum if you are basing it on a WIFMO. For you to say I am a confirmed Scum based on a WIFMO is a huge risk at this point.

How can you confirm that Cancer is Town Sarali? He has buddied up nicely in an attempt to hide up until now when it is lylo. He has defended me quite a lot against people who really have read into my posts as scum posts. I would suspect a townie to find me scummy if not suspicious and ask questions about posts that they are unsure about. However, CB never really did that until now. He continously defended me during the game and hardly asked questions about context or meaning or reasoning and seemed to naturally understand my posts. To me this shows that he knew I was town right from the beginning and that is why it was so easy for him to figure out what I typing. He wanted to leave a scummy looking person as a scapegoat for him to use towards the end game when it is lylo.

CB has casted the first vote and is trying to convince just one townie to put their vote on me. Please have faith that lynching me is a huge mistake on the town.

Mcgriddle had to struggle to convince this group and it failed so he started to clam up. I am pretty much suspecting the same thing will go on here.

All I am asking is before any town places their vote on me please be absolute sure with it.

The action of CB's vote completely makes me worried about him as we are in a lylo situation and both earlder and kingdavid had made the correct statement in not to put a vote out yet CB didn't take heed to it, a townie would.

[CancerBottle]

David, nothing is wrong with giving observations, but that is all they simply are. You are The John Madden of Mafia.

You state the obvious stuff that goes down and then sit back and don't further the observations with anything that hasn't already been touched on and when you finally decide to come around and give an opinion you don't bother looking at anyone else except for the one who is presumably more scum than anything.

You're a bit late to the "David is scummy" party; most of that took place on page 22, Mr. Reiteration.

I am pretty good to set my vote on you right now john madden.. I mean Kingdavid.

So why don't you?

@ All: Sorry to sound like the late, great Chimp Pants, but when do you people think it's a good time to vote? What specifically needs to happen before votes should be cast?

Can I tell you Sarali one thing I do not believe is you having a memory like a sieve. Stop playing the "I don't know what is going on" card. I think it is a way for you to excuse yourself for not knowing what is going on in a game. Scummy behaviour would be for someone to claim they have no real idea what is going on, blame it on a lack of remembering for any discrepencies that may arise and then waffle about null tells scum tells and town tells.

She's asking because she forgot if the little icon under your avatar was an arrow or a cross....

Still, you've piqued my interest. I'll have to look at Sara's consistency (Ugh, that sounds like something Jamie Lee Curtis would peddle during the 5:00 news.) when it comes to reads and if it means anything.

I am more likely at this point to be at the three of you Earlder ((not as much though)), Sarali and Kingdavid. Reason being you three have left CB and Chimp Pants and I to go around in circles without any of you really contributing. Earlder did come around a bit, but Sarali and Kingdavid, Yuck is all I have to say. If you really cared about what was going on, you would have stepped in and helped out instead of sitting by the side lines watching 3 people go after each other because that was the only form of damn conversation that was going on to form opinions and conversation with.

So they weren't at their computers at the time. So what? IRL stuff takes precedence. You just got back from a 3-day V/LA. Besides, they actually voted for someone by the end of the day. They actually backed up their words with votes.

[CancerBottle]

CB, I still have a reservation about you for buddying up to me, I do appreciate it of course, but it still puts me on edge. The reason being is, you seem to understand exactly what the hell I am talking about and get the context of my messages. This is a good thing do not get me wrong, because you are actually understanding the crap that comes out of my fingers. but the problem with it is, with such an understanding, can you not see how fishy it seems?

My initial read on you developed from my belief you were as inexperienced as you let on. I no longer believe that. I'm not saying you were lying about your experience. But I'm beginning to think you're better at mafia than someone at your experience level would usually be. This means that in my initial reads, I was able to explain many of your actions through your experience level. Moreover, you seem cautious, which I like because it makes a player predictable. And in predictability brings a feeling of security. It, however, does not make a player pro-town. What's changed my read on you was your responses at the end of day 2. I figured your bad responses to Chimp Pants on day 1 was simply your newbie response under pressure. The fact that you responded with another string of accusations under pressure, made me re-think my read.

I mean a lot of people have had a null to scum read on me, but you had mentioned quite a bit of things that really matched to my thought processes and defended me against other townies who genuinly had a scum read on me. That is a bit of a concern there CB. I hope you understand at least that much.

Understood. I guess when ten men tell you you're drunk, you'd better lie down. I guess we'll see how accurate our reads were on the other side.

[CancerBottle]

Clearly right now CB doesn't seem to think putting a vote on someone is a bad thing at this point.

Right.

he is looking for a quick win for scum because all he has to do is convince just one townie to put a vote on me and then his partner in crime can hammer.

Holy shit. He can read minds! Or I could simply be voting for you because I think you are scum. Or we might both be town....

town would be more worried about having a vote on someone especially at lylo and this early into deadline.

Says you. There's this idea going round, David, I think was the first one to plug it today, that caution=pro-town. I'm beginning to see it as an excuse to hold a vote off until the last second then vote for whoever is up "in order to avoid a no-lynch."

Scum can put a vote on anyone without being worried this early because they can leave their vote there and safely know they don't have enough votes to hammer until a townie is convinced.

I'm voting for you because I think you're scum. I gotta good vote going here. Someone should join me.

Earlder and Kingdavid both stated and agreed that by putting any type of vote on someone people should be careful as scum would just double up the vote, that is true that is to me town motivated as all town should be playing for a town win not the potential of a town loss. CB is not taking heed to this and is not concerned about town winning by placing a vote, unconcerned about a double vote by scum. He is clearly playing for a scum agenda.

The point of a wagon, besides the whole lynching thing, is to see who else joins and why. Of course, David has everyone convinced a vote at this point would be a terrible thing. And I don't see how "consensus" would prevent a bad lynch. Scum can easily reach "consensus" with anyone.

CB went after vezo. Vezo was town
CB went after Mcgriddle and mcgriddle was town.

I like the trend that is going on there CB.

You've voted for two players for the entire game--iamusername and SAMP. Both townies I might add, though neither player was in any danger of being lynched. The only time you went after anybody with an original argument was SAMP back in day 1.

Moreover, Chimp Pants, and Earlder1 were also on both the McG and Vezo wagons. Would this not also constitute a trend?

[CancerBottle]

To clarify on my post above, I'm referring to the final vote count.

If Ythill was concerned about CB, Mcgriddle had voted for CB and continued to argue with CB until he ran out of words then there must really be a problem with CB.

What are you trying to say here? Two people thought I was scummy at some point. Thus...I am scummy?

You've kind of been softclaiming cop for a while. It was obvious enough I was pretty sure it wasn't subconscious. I'm not sure what to think of it, though.

I was going to shout at you for pointing this out, but I guess if we're gonna talk about cop claims, lylo is probably the best time as any to do it. And you've given the scum their next target anyway.

We need to get today's lynch right if we are to have any chance tomorrow, so if we do have a cop, that player should claim now. I am not the cop BTW. If we have any doctors, they should not claim until everyone has denied they are the cop.

[Thian]

As to what I mean CB two people have thought you were scummy and those two people are not around anymore to continue pestering you if you are scum you would be motivated to kill them to shut them up. So the fact that these two suspected you and are no longer here makes me feel that there was motivation for you enough to get rid of them during NK and target them during the day.

CB: Do you not feel putting a vote is a huge risk for town at lylo? I mean I would have to agree with david on that idea. One thing is for certain CB only scum know who scum are and who are town and to confidently place a vote out as a townie at LYLO without worrying about a loss for the town.

1. If a person is town they do not know who scum are and the vote you placed early on is a risk as an early town loss ((Scum Agenda))
2. No one had checked in before you put your vote down, you do not know the agenda of the others and if you are town that would be a stupid move as you risk again a loss for town.
3. there are only two scum around and that is not enough for a lynch, there is no risk during lylo for scum to put a vote down. All they need to do is convince one townie to follow suit. You seem to want to be rushing this day over so you already started up a bandwagon without considering or weighing in on the the risk of a town loss. You also jumped at the fact I didn't vote for KingDavid and seemed to want me to rush to put my vote on someone who could potentially be a townie. ((everyone should be playing to their alignments win condition being hasty at lylo is not town like in my eyes))

CB is not playing to a town win condition by risking a mislynch for his placed vote so early before conversation had really occured.

and LOL the you got a good vote going on here. That was actually funny.

If everyone claims they are not cop and earlder does claim he is cop, he still could not be a cop. Where does claiming get us if we have the potential senarios.

Potential Senarios
Earlder is Cop and Really does clear Sarali as town, it leaves CB myself and Kingdavid to be questioned
Earlder is Scum fake claims cop clears sarali as true town to gain Sarali's trust and sarali becomes a pawn as scum try to persuade her into a mislynch which seems to be currently, my wagon.
Earlder is Scum fake claims cop clears sarali as fake town true scum and they focus their attention on two townies debating, CB and myself.

[Sotty7]

3rd Vote count of day three

Thian: 1 (CancerBottle)

Not voting: 4 (Earlder1, imkingdavid, Thian, sarali)

• The deadline for the end of day three is Thursday 12th of August at 3:30pm CST
• With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

[Earlder1]

Well, alright then, here goes nothing...

I am cop. I was going to come out and claim once I figured everything out in my mind, but I suppose that point has pretty much been reached. I tried to be subtle about it on day 2, and I don't know if I was based off of your reactions. I really should not have posted that last tidbit about Sarali being town for sure in my last post, but I thought that it would be more interpretted as my opinion, rather than fact. Oh well.

I do have results that are meaningful and will probably lead to victory, so here they are.

Night 1 I investigated Sarali (as many of you had guessed) and she came up town. I even tried to excrypt this into my posts day 2, and if anyone is curious as to how, I'd be fine showing it.

Night 2 I investigated Thian and he came up scum alligned. I started to encrypt this in the same fashion, but I suppose it is useless now.

As for reasons, going into night 1 I had the weakest read on Sarali, and even though I leaned her town, I was the least confident about her. In my previous game, scum ended up being a player who posted sparsely and had be convinced entirely up until the end that he was town. I did not want to make the same mistake again. Therefore, I investigated the person who seemed to be generating the least amount of content, and would therefore be the hardest to get a straight read on.

As for Thian, I have always had my doubts. Even back to day 1, I was suspicious about him. Especially after reading what had occurred prior to the McG lynch, I was fully ready to investigate him. My results came back as expected.

So, here is what this means.

Sarali is town. Thian is scum. The remaining scum can either be CB or David. I wanted to take my time and figure this out for myself before claiming, and I think I pretty much have. CB's vote on Thian pretty much seals the deal that the other scum is David. I don't see a scum partner voting his buddy in some last attempt to win this. Also, based on the numbers we have, I find it unlikely that there is another power role (doctor) out there and so scum would take a huge risk bussing this late with a known power role out there (if there is no doctor, scum have no roleblocker and they know a cop or doctor is still alive). Therefore, I would not expect the scum time to try a manuever such as this. This leads to one conclusion.

David = scum.

Now, once again, if anyone wants to see my attempt at encryption, just let me know. Town has this game in the bag, and no one hammer until all qustions are aksed of me because I will definitely be NK'd. Let's finish this up!

Vote: Thian

[imkingdavid]

vote Thian

[Thian]

OMFG NO WAY!! LMFAO!!!!!!! YOU BOLD FACE LIAR earlder!!! LOL scummy scummy !!!

no one hammer? way to take that advice!!! LOL jeezus... go to bed, and wake up with a noose around your neck. lol good game all

[sarali]

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuck. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. This is is a scum win isn't it. Davidscum just quickhammered. It was my goddamned "Earlder softclaiming" post that did it, wasn't it. Even though I started to think he was scum from it. I guess that answers my question of how accurate my gut-scumdar is though. It got Earlder. Which was no help at all.

I WOULD HAVE MADE A DAMN GOOD D1 POLICY LYNCH YOU KNOW. THEN I WOULDN'T HAVE LOST THE GAME.

[CancerBottle]

Com'on Scotty, where are you?

[Thian]

Lol, seriously I had a great time with the game and you guys. I was so damn confused the whole time. I didn't realize what the hell was going on and it clearly showed.

You dirty dirty scummy Earlder!!!!! Gah!

[sarali]

Lol, seriously I had a great time with the game and you guys. I was so damn confused the whole time. I didn't realize what the hell was going on and it clearly showed.

Ahaha. I knew what was going on, I just didn't know what I was doing. And none of you believed me when I started whining about being useless. Perhaps I should've backed that up with a case on my uselessness. Maybe then you wouldn't have started going after me.

[sarali]

I didn't have that much fun, but I think it's just that I don't really seem to enjoy mafia in general. You were all great.

[Sotty7]

Com'on Scotty, where are you?

I often wonder who this Scotty guy is. He seems to always be following me around... I have no clue who he is.

Vote count and junk coming up...

[Sotty7]

Final Vote count of day three

Thian: 3 (CancerBottle, Earlder1, imkingdavid)

Not voting: 2 (Thian, sarali)

• A lynch has been reached...
• Mod scene up coming...

[Sotty7]

Considering they were fast running out of innocent people, the town sure jumped on poor Thian in almost record time. Just when you'd think it would be time for caution, the townies just jump right into the lynch.

"Guys seriously, it's not me cross my heart!"

"KILL HIM!"

"YEAH!"

And so it was done, Thian was lead to the nose and hung but before Cancerbottle could look though his pockets he feels the sharp jab of a gun barrel in his back.

"You have to be kidding me!"

"Sorry bud," iamkingdavid snarls in his ear. "It's not personal like.... Oh wait, it IS personal!"

Cancer turns round and tries to fight for the gun but it's a battle he can't win, a shot rings out and hits him in the chest. Cancerbottle drops to his knees pale as a ghost, before looking up at the sky.

"Beam me up..... Scotty?"

He falls to the floor, totally dead. sarali cries out, not believing what she sees.

"Noooooo! Not Cancer!"

But before she can do anything else Earlder1 pulls his gun and shoots her right between the eyes with a smirk.

"Too easy."

= = = = =

• Thian was lynched. He was a townie.
• sarali and Cancerbottle were end gamed. They were both townies
• imkingdavid (roleblocker) and Earlder1 (goon) Win the game!