Newbie Game #489 - Murder in Smallburg (Game Over!)

[Selande]

Hi all!
I'm replacing desolator. I'll post after a second read-through.

[Selande]

Sorry for the delay. Weekend happened and I had less time than I thought.

Thoughts on the players:

NabakovNabakov
I think his explaining the game is his playstyle as IC, I can see him doing the same as scum or as town. And warning not to put the lynch-vote on somebody early in the game is good advice, one I've seen given often on this site.
In post 44 he votes zazq (now Franzie) for joining the bandwagon on mcpaltp, after distancing from coxy52k (I assume). N-N, where did you see distancing?
Then, coxy becomes his main suspect, because he doesn't seem to understand why voting an inactive player is not a good idea.
He agrees with Flameaxe's play and following the reactions Boggzie and Franzie (was zazq) (re-)join his list of suspects.
Seems town atm.

Boogzie (now Wolfbulllet)
Attacks N-N in post 36 for being "condescending". Says much later (post 95) that he tried to "get a raise" out of N-N. Why?
In post 45 he agrees with N-Ns comments on zazq and coxy, but doesn't vote. Post 72 he questions N-Ns vote for coxy, it's a "worrying move". In post 85, after Franzie replaced zazq, Franzie and N-N are his top-suspects, after Franzie accused him of being scummy for tag-teaming with N-N. In 95 he votes for N-N who is "leading the town" and sees Franzie as his partner. In post 114 Boggzie unvotes although he still thinks that Franzie and N-N are scum. Then Flameaxe enters the scene and gets his vote. N-N still is suspicious, Franzie drops from the list (probably because she voted for Flameaxe).
Two quotes I find intereseting:

I have a very firm belief that if I declined to answer, I would have been called scummy. So, I answered.

I don't want to be part of a scum wagon.

Feels scummy to me, don't have a read on Wolfbullet yet.

It always takes me to long to compose these posts, have to go to bed now, more tomorrow.

[Selande]

My reads on the two quotes:

1: Boggzie answered so he wouldn't be called scummy.
2: Boggzie didn't want to be part of a scum pushed wagon.

Just what I see.

that's just rewording what it says...

I guess that is Flameaxe's point: that there is no more to these quotes.

I found it noticeable that Boggzie stresses very early in the game that he is not scum without being under any pressure. Maybe it's a null-tell, but I'd assume that it is scum who are most concerned about being called scum.

[Selande]

Apologies for not posting during the last days!

So, I'll try again and give you my thoughts about all players.

N-N:

Seems town to me, don't see scummy actions from him.

But something attracted my attention:

I would say that discussion is inherently productive. Flameaxe's actions in particular produced a page which included many accusations and

two votes

.

Flameaxe continued his behavior even after getting

two

votes and only abandoned it after I broke things up, so I would say it's very unlikely that he got spooked.

(Bolding by me).

There were not two but three votes on Flameaxe (mcpaltp, Boggzie and Franzie). I interpret these as honest mistakes atm, because I think N-N is town, but perhaps something to keep in mind.

sk407/Flameaxe

Nothing suspicious from them.

coxy/martini

Coxy's most noticeable contribution was his lurking/inactive discussion with N-N, where he didn't seem able or willing to understand N-N's arguments. I don't know which of these options is true, so I'm unsure about the scumminess.

Martini in his second post says about Boggzie:

I really don't know what to say about him..

But:

I find Franzie and Boggzie most supicious,

Later he adds:

I quickly reread it again, and the one thing that I noticed is that he has been suspicious of N^2 for almost the whole game already. I don't know whether that's good or bad though.
the whole discussion between franzie, flameaxe and boggzie made all three of them feel suspicious, but I wasn't sure.
In the beginning he was acting a bit strange, (together with zazq, as far as I remember)
but I find the rest of boggzie's posts pretty good actually.

On the other hand he notes a major inconsistency in mcpalpt's play and finds him tending to town. Also, boggzie and Franzie warrant suspicion for the discussion with Flameaxe, but mcpalpt looks pro-town because of it?

When Wolfbullet enters the game, martini quickly changes his opinion and now suspects mcpalpt and Franzie, without giving his own reasons.

Hm, don't like his play too much.

zazq/Franzie

Zazq early in the game tried to kick-start discussion by asking questions, brought mcpaltp to L-1 for lurking and is then replaced. Franzie's suspects when entering the game are N-N (vote-steering, leading the game by the nose), Boggzie (tag-teaming with N-N, vote-steering, defending coxy) and coxy (constantly vote-changing, "pro-town is more than contributing"). Of those three, Boggzie gets his vote twice; when Flameaxe votes Boggzie, Franzie for a while doesn't comment on this, also he is on during the Flamaxe - mcpalpt debate; he places a vote on Flameaxe after mpcpalpt and Boggzie voted. Later unvotes after Flameaxe's explanation. His suspects now are N-N, Boggzie, Flameaxe (see post 177). Coxy has dropped from this list without comment.

Then:

I think I'm going to drop Flame off of that list, because yes, he came in with a bang, but he's been pretty quiet since then.

How is being pretty quite a positive sign?

And:

Wolfbullet, however, came in and immediately started attacking with circumstantial evidence. Wolfy is now at the top of my list

I don't think playing aggressively is per se a scum-tell


.... Have to go now, but will finish this this weekend.

(BTW:

Mod

, didn't receive a prod, maybe it got sent to the wrong person?)

[Selande]

Okay, I'll continue with

Boggzie/Wolfbullet

:

Boggzie's main target seems to be N-N: he attacks him early on for "condescending behavior" - and justifies this later with "trying to get a rise out of N-N" - and finds N-N's vote for coxy "worrying". After Franzie enters the game and votes for Boggzie, Franzie becomes another suspect, he sees a connection between Franzie and N-N and finally votes for N-N. Two posts later he still suspects both, but now Franzie is his top-suspect, he unvotes N-N but doesn't vote Franzie.
Flameaxe's unexplained vote for Boggzie gets him Boggzie's vote in return, Franzie's vote for Flameaxe seems to clear him in Boggzie's mind, so his two mafia-suspects (before he leaves the game) are Flameaxe and N-N, with a vote on Flameaxe.

Boggzie's lurker comment is really odd:

So, I ask my fellow townies - we should follow the voting of a guy that lurks, and as soon as he "returns" (i.e.

gets called on it

) he tosses a vote for no reason?

(bolding mine)

Called on it

As far as my "lurking" comment, I genuinely confused Flamaxe as the replacement for zazq, whom we had the "lurking/inactive" discussion on.

But a few posts earlier:

You also made sure to give us a little pontification on how/why/and what zazq was doing while "away". Was it lurking? Wasn't it? You tossed a vote on a guy for just mentioning he was inclined to place a vote on

zazq, now Franzie

.

(bolding mine)

It still is possible that he thought of Flameaxe as zazq's replacement at the time of the first quote, but his comment doesn't make sense even then. A replacement doesn't "return" because he "gets called on it"; it's a person completely new to the game. And there was so much discussion about lurking/inactivity/replacements beforehand that I have a hard time to believe this was an honest mistake on Boggzie's site - especially because he tries to defend it with "I thought Flame was zazq's replacement".
In conclusion, this sounds very much like an made-up argument to me. All in all, Boggzie looks very scummy.

Now Wolfbullet enters the game. In his first analysis post he dissents from Boggzie in that he doesn't think that Boggzie's top-suspects N-N and Flameaxe are mafia. Mcpaltp seems okay at that moment, and Franzie and coxy/martini are his top-suspects, in this order. Still, coxy/martini receives his vote (because Boggzie has been accused of defending coxy? - I ask here if I understand your reasoning correctly).

Wb, where did you get the impression that Franzie stuck up for coxy?

After Mcpaltp and N-N point out

that WB is trying to make nice right now. He is fingering the two largest targets (besides himself) as probable scum and dropping Boggzie's accusations,

, Wb develops his case against Mcpaltp. I think his main arguments are:
- Mcpaltp's "accidental" third vote on zazq
- the vote-change from Flameaxe to Boggzie, claiming that Boggzie was his main suspect before, without any proof for that claim
- Mcpaltp being on the Flameaxe wagon, maybe leaving it because coxy was inactive and couldn't vote

Wb, while I find esp. the second argument very convincing, I'm not so sure about the third. You say:

Had a vote on Flameaxe when it was 3 although he was the one to withdraw it.

But you don't mention that his vote was in fact the first vote, and that he gave a reason for withdrawing his vote, namely Flameaxe being at L-1.

....

Damn. I know I'm to slow.

[Selande]

Since I used the last hours to type the above, I decided to post it when I saw that a lynch had happened (I used the "Display posts by" function and so didn't notice earlier).

Although it's kind of pointless now, my top-suspects would have been Wolfbullet and mcpaltp, but I didn't think that both of them are scum.

(I didn't see a ban of twilight talk in the rules.)

[Selande]

Obligatory lylo-warning:
If we lynch town now, we will loose. And as only three votes are needed for a lynch, the two scum can pile on a single vote, if a townie gets one from another townie.

So Wolfbullet, please unvote for now.

That said, I'm not sure if I believe Franzie's cop-claim. His hammer-vote on McPaltp looks extremely scummy.

Franzie, a question for you:
Why did you choose to investigate N-N? Have you considered other candidates? If yes, who? And why did you decide not to investigate them?

[Selande]

N-N, of course, if you are town, you would know for certain that Franzie is lying. But even though I'm more inclined not to believe Franzie's claim, I can't be sure, so I ask questions to hear more from him and help me decide.

and I have used the "One wrong lynch and we lose" argument to get the heat off scumbuddies (and myself) while playing as scum.

Well, that may be a good tactic, but in most newbie games I read on this site, this warning was routinely given - I think it's generally advisable for town to be cautious in this situation, because a false vote can loose us the game.

Scum are also more likely to be "unsure" of claims

Why? Okay, you may have a point as all but me seem to be very certain. But you know for sure, one way or the other, and if you are town, one of martini and Wolfbullet also knows and is sacrificing a partner.

If I were wrong and Franzie was the cop then I know that it would be between you, martini and NN as the scum. You did not vote against him and neither did martini. That means your either his partner or town because at least one of you along with NN would have to vote and try for a quicklynch if he were a cop.

True. But from my point of view, it's also possible that you are scum.

[Selande]

Oh no. I fully expected to have to defend myself against being lynched today, and now I have to decide the game.

I'll have to do a re-read, you'll hear from me tomorrow.

[Selande]

Only skimmed the thread.

At the moment I'm tending to believe martini. If he was scum claiming cop now seems unnecerssary from my perspective: I would have been an easy target to try getting lynched. And if Wolfbullet is scum, counterclaiming is his only chance in this situation. Also, coxy seemed quite sincere in wanting to get zazq lynched, so I see the two as unlikely scum-buddies.


BTW

Okay, you may have a point as all but me seem to be very certain. But you know for sure, one way or the other, and if you are town, one of martini and Wolfbullet also knows and is sacrificing a partner.

... so in fact all three of you knew for sure Franzie was scum.

[Selande]

I'm here and reading and constantly changing my opinion on who of you is scum.

coxy/martini:

Interaction with zazq: Coxy votes McPaltp for lurking, zazq follows with a vote and puts him at L-1, N-N and Boggzie express their suspicions about this, and now coxy votes zazq.

Distancing or honest suspicion?

Zazq is brought to L-1 and coxy unvotes, states that zazq is still his top suspect but it's to early to end the day.

Pro-town behavior or attempt to save a scum-partner?

Zazq stops posting, coxy threatens to vote her (and is voted by N-N for that), coxy votes zazq and states that he wants her lynched (debate about missing/lurking players), coxy unvotes when Franzie replaces zazq. Later coxy reaffirms that he sees nothing wrong with voting inactive/lurking players.

I believe that coxy really wanted to lynch zazq at this point, and I have a hard time seeing a scum partner doing that.

Interaction with Franzie: When Franzie enters the game, coxy (for constantly vote-changing) is among his suspects, together with Boggzie and N-N. Later Franzie asks N-N to restate his case on coxy, agrees with N-N and FOSes coxy (while voting Boggzie) and sees coxy (or N-N) as possible scum-partner of Boggzie. After that Franzie hardly mentions coxy/martini - he drops from his list of suspects without any commentary.

Hm, Franzie doesn't try to go for a coxy/martini lynch, even with a town-player wanting to put pressure on him - that's a point against martini IMO.

For martini Franzie is among the most suspicious throughout day 1, first together with Boggzie, then (after Wolfbullet starts his case against mcpaltp) with the latter.

Martinis play day one: doesn't post very much, tends to follow the arguments of others, never votes (see esp. post 259 - why no vote for mcpaltp?).

Point against martini.

It's nearly 2 in the morning, so more tomorrow.

[Selande]

Okay, on to Boggzie/Wolfbullet

Interactions Boggzie - zazq: Zazq's first (random) vote is for Boggzie, and Boggzie is also the first in the question list in post 23. Zazq disagrees with Boggzie's attack on N-N and gives "negative feedback" for it. Boggzie agrees with N-N's comment on coxy and zazq (first distancing, then agreeing) but doesn't want "to toss votes around" and "be part of a scum wagon". (Only N-N is voting for zazq at that moment). When zazq goes silent he comments that zazq is the only direction he has and he is waiting for her to answer questions.

Isn't that a slight contradiction? Doesn't his scum-wagon comment imply that he suspects N-N? And he attacked N-N earlier (post 36) and called this a tactic later (post 95). 1/2 negagiv point for Wb.

To be continued ...

[Selande]

Guys, sorry to let you wait so long. I've been ill, but now I'm back at work. Probably no time today, but I intent to post Friday.

[Selande]

Interactions Franzie- Boggzie/Wolfbullet: Boggzie/Wolfbullet) seems to be Franzie's main target day 1; three of his five votes are on Boggzie/Wb: he votes, unvotes and votes for Boggzie (both times first vote on Boggzie), then changes his vote to Flameaxe (following Boggzie's vote, bringing Flame to L-1), later votes for Wb and brings him to L-1; the fifth vote is the hammer on mcpaltp, following that from Wb: "I'm happy for martini or Selande (or maybe Franzie would like to do some last minute bussing) to drop the hammer if they want to and everyone else is okay with it? "

When Franzie votes Wolfbullet, both mcpaltp and Wb have two votes. Martini has expressed his suspicion of mcpaltp, but hasn't cast a vote yet. So for a scum-pair Franzie/Wb a L-1 vote on mcpaltp seems more advantageous at this point. One point for Wolfbullet. OTOH distancing/bussing on Franzie's part is still a possibility, and Franzie could have read the sentence I quoted from Wb as a request to hammer coming from his scum-partner. 1/2 negative point for Wb.

Interactions Boggzie - Franzie: Boggzie continues to attack N-N, and sees Franzie as his scum-partner. N-N gets his vote. When Flameaxe votes for Boggzie he becomes a third suspect and over the course of the Flameaxe-discussion, Franzie drops off the list of suspects.

Interactions Wolfbullet - Franzie: Upon replacing in Wb drops Boggzie's suspects and sees Franzie and martini as the most scummy and votes for martini.

Wb votes for martini although he lists Franzie as his top suspect - 1 negative point for Wb.

Then Wb develops his case against mcpaltp; Franzie is seen as the most unlikely scumbuddy. After voting Wb he becomes the top-suspect for being mcpaltp's partner.

Wb's defense and accusations against Franzie seem quite genuine, but I'm not sure if he would have reacted differently if he is scum.

[Selande]

Looking back at day one didn't help me that much - it seems equally possible that both of you are scum. And since both of you essentially claim the same actions/tactics for day two and three it doesn't make the decision any easier.

But this game lasted long enough, so I'll vote. Since part of my suspicion against Wolfbullet stems from the fact that he was the more active player and I don't want to punish that:

vote: martini

[Selande]

Yay!

Thanks all for the game.

Martini, your cop claim at the end made voting for you really difficult.

[Selande]

I suck at making decisions.

But martini didn't say he was unsure about Franzie's claim, that was me.