Newbie 1502: Thought Blockage (Game Ovs)

[vettrock]

Hello everyone. I am going go with my random vote of:
VOTE: theunabletable

[vettrock]

My reasoning for my random vote is it seems contradictory which might be scummy.

[vettrock]

All right per Nachomamma8's request, I now have an avatar. The wise Yoda. It should make me seem smarter.

[vettrock]

I have no real reasoning for the unabletable vote. I was just something to get started.
UNVOTE: unabletable

[vettrock]

Ok, so don't answer the questions, but I really don't think that makes me scummy. I haven't played this enough yet I guess to ask intelligent questions, so I don't have something specific yet.

For some reason i read unabltable like untable-table which was contradictory. Yes it was sort of a joke.

[vettrock]

I think it is tough to get much of a read at this point. Since the scum know each other, one of thw signs is them ganging up, at this point that would be Nacho and Xay. The other scummy thing you can do is vote for me. While I realize everyone claims to be town, I have to view anyone who is voting for me as potentially scummy. So those are the three that currently havw the FoS from me. I'll wait for more info before making a decision on which is avtually scummy.

[vettrock]

Or newbtown maybe?

Well this is the first time I am playing, so I can agree with your assessment.

While voting for me doesn't mean you are scummy, but it does potentially, the assumption being that they will try and lynch the town if possible, rather than voting for the other mafia since they know who the other mafia is. It also could mean you are town and just not guessing correctly.

[vettrock]

Right now unless someone starting doing something scummy, I don't see anyone getting close to being lynched. I'n not that bothered by the one vote for me, but I think the chances of us actually finding scum on day one are small. The important part of day one is to create a record the may have relevance after the results of night one, especially once some of the roles are used to get more information, which may make things people said here look different.

My most scummy reads I think then are unabletable and TN. I not sure if they are scummy, they may just be aggressive and trying to draw something out, but as they are currently pointing towards me, it leads me to at least consider that they may have scummy motives for doings so.

[vettrock]

I don't have much time right now, but:

But the most important part of Day 1 for town is lynching the hell out of a scumbag. Scum wins only 12% of the time when their partner is lynched D1 in a newbie game: that means it's a hell of an uphill battle from there, meaning if we can catch scum Day 1, we're in a significant lead and will probably win unless crazy shenanigans unleash.

The drive is to lynch scum. Not create a record, wait for results.

Understand that if we Lynch scum on D1, we have a much better chance of winning. That leaves only one scum left to fine, and he/she has no backup. Since I don't know, in what percentage of time is scume lynched on D1 vs. town? With 2 scum and 7 town, I have to think town is more likely to be lynched on day one. I certainly want to lynch scum on D1, I'm not convinced it is likely though.

[vettrock]

Regarding my read on Vettrock: Xayzeck at one point had said that Vettrock could be newbtown. While I still have that possibility in mind, my expectation of a newbtown is someone who's trying to learn, and possibly emulates those around him. As Theunabletable has stated, Vettrock's approach is extremely static and stable, when someone trying to learn changes (one might give Theunabletable's posts as an example - I do see an improvement). This makes me think that Vettrock is scum, and knowing who all the town are, can't feign to scumhunt, and thus is only able to turn against those who find him scummy. And I'm not sure if my impression or read regarding Vettrock will change in the future.

That's a good point

While I disagree with the assessment, I guess I can understand why you have that assessment. I am a new player, and I am trying to get a read and learn what I can from the other players. Some people are much better at pulling bits of information from what other write than I am. Since I know I am town (and yes I realize scum in going to say that) I have to look at least a little suspiciously at those accusing me. It is certainly possible they are town, but scum is most likely to rally support to lynch town. This is way I say the important part of day 1 is observations that will be more telling once the results are in and Day 2 starts. In any game where the town lynches scum successfully on D1, either the mafia didn't know what they were doing and gave too many obvious tells, or the town just go lucky. 2/9 is not great odds assuming all is random. The more information that is available, the better these odds get, but of course the scum is going to be spreading mis-information as well. If you think this approach sound scummy to you, I can just say that I think you are mistaken.

[vettrock]

All right, I think I have some more info to go off of now. While I understand that it may look like I'm scummy for not putting much forward, but I was waiting for information that I see as scummy.

Right now the leading canidates are Kali and reinoe. Followed closely by Xayzeck. While tn is also voting for me, I see reinoe and Kali jumping on the train, which I see as much more scummy. Scum are reluctant in many cases to initially suggest some, but they are all for jumpng on board to lynch town. Xayzeck is next on the list. He seems to be watching and subtly advocating that I am scum, so he doesn't look as supicous, but can point back to these instances as his reason for jumping on the train. I don't think both reinoe and Kali are scum, but one of them most likely is. Possibly Xayzeck as the partner playing it safe, waiting until the hammer is ready to fall. Also of note about Xayzeck, he was the second voter for TN. Second and third voters are often scum trying to start a train.

With regard to Unabletable and the no lynch, I depending on how this develops further, I don't know if no lynch wo uhh ld be our best option, but I don't think it is a horrible thing. I think the odds are in favor of scum on the D1 lynch, but town can get usuful information from the D1 lynching even if the lynchee flips town.

[vettrock]

Sorry, forgot to include my vote:
VOTE: reinoe

[vettrock]

All right, I think I have some more info to go off of now. While I understand that it may look like I'm scummy for not putting much forward, but I was waiting for information that I see as scummy.

Right now the leading canidates are Kali and reinoe. Followed closely by Xayzeck. While tn is also voting for me, I see reinoe and Kali jumping on the train, which I see as much more scummy. Scum are reluctant in many cases to initially suggest some, but they are all for jumpng on board to lynch town. Xayzeck is next on the list. He seems to be watching and subtly advocating that I am scum, so he doesn't look as supicous, but can point back to these instances as his reason for jumping on the train. I don't think both reinoe and Kali are scum, but one of them most likely is. Possibly Xayzeck as the partner playing it safe, waiting until the hammer is ready to fall. Also of note about Xayzeck, he was the second voter for TN. Second and third voters are often scum trying to start a train.

With regard to Unabletable and the no lynch, I depending on how this develops further, I don't know if no lynch wo uhh ld be our best option, but I don't think it is a horrible thing. I think the odds are in favor of scum on the D1 lynch, but town can get usuful information from the D1 lynching even if the lynchee flips town.

Watch as I discredit vettrock's entire premise with one question: why didn't I get on the TN wagon?

Well for one thing, although you are the same person in the game, you are taking over for someone else who may have had a different play style, or since he left for a reasob, may not have had the time to play. (Most likely the reason he was replaced in the first place). The secobd is the same concept where I said second and third voters are more likely to be scum, getting on the second train instead of the first looks a little less suspious, so it is something I would expect from scum.

[vettrock]

Gotta say bye to everyone, can't play anymore. It just feels that I don't have anything to say. So hopefully I will get replaced with someone more active by our game mod.
So yeah, sorry for not posting. Have fun!

=/ I'm sorry if I was being rude to you in any way.. Perhaps reading one or two finished games might help you develop a sense of the game..?

everyone else is kinda null, I've got vett as nulltown but Kali seems to be pretty convinced on vettscum, so I'm not sure. He gives me townvibes but it could be his style or something, I'll wait for more on the slot to get a firmer read

I still think there's the possibility that you might be right about this, and it confuses me too. The best thing to do, I suppose, is to question and observe.

While tn is also voting for me, I see reinoe and Kali jumping on the train, which I see as much more scummy.

I was the one to first vote for you, Vettrock. I voted you in post #64, Tn voted in post #151 (I think), and I only removed my vote on you because I thought for a moment that Xayzeck was scummier than you. I most certainly did not jump on any train; I started it myself.

Xayzeck is next on the list. He seems to be watching and subtly advocating that I am scum, so he doesn't look as supicous, but can point back to these instances as his reason for jumping on the train.

In fact, at no point did Xayzeck advocate or suggest that you were scum. He has been reading you as newbtown and has expressed this view several times. (Posts #83 and #179. In #195 he states that he himself gets nulltown vibes from you.)

Also of note about Xayzeck, he was the second voter for TN. Second and third voters are often scum trying to start a train.

Xayzeck was the third, but it isn't that important. What you say might be true, but the first vote on Tn, which was mine, was a random vote. I'm not sure what Nacho's vote actually is, but Xayzeck was certainly the first person to accuse Tn of scumminess; the "wagon" before that wasn't really a wagon.

The secobd is the same concept where I said second and third voters are more likely to be scum, getting on the second train instead of the first looks a little less suspious, so it is something I would expect from scum.

How is it less suspicious to jump on the second wagon as opposed to the first?

One thing that has kind of muddled up my Vettrock read is his view of Xayzeck. If he were scum with a growing wagon on him, would he so easily be able to accuse someone who has been approaching with the most positive light among all of us?

So I apparently got the order wrong in my accusation. Let me do some re-reading and re-evaluate.

[vettrock]

Upon further review, I'll pull back on my assessment of Xayzeck. I'm not convinced he is clean, but I think he is just being cautious rather than trying to hold back, and then deliver the hammer once someone has enough votes. I am moving him to neutral.

I was incorrect in the voting order for Kali, so I'll pull that back as well, as the first vote was a neutral RVS type vote.

I am keeping my vote on Reinoe, as he seems most intent on pushing the train along to lynch me. While his initial reason was that I wasn't posting enough content, while I can understand that it was to prod me a bit, saying I didn't have enough content. I didn't have much content, as I didn't have as much information to go on as I do now. Hopefully I've satisfied your content portion of it.

Also regarding TN, as he is the other one with votes. after re-reading, I',m going to say leaning a little towards scum, but still closer to neutral. He was second vote as described by me before, but I don't think that is enough to call him scum at this point. We will see how it plays out.

[vettrock]

Upon further review, I'll pull back on my assessment of Xayzeck. I'm not convinced he is clean, but I think he is just being cautious rather than trying to hold back, and then deliver the hammer once someone has enough votes. I am moving him to neutral.

I was incorrect in the voting order for Kali, so I'll pull that back as well, as the first vote was a neutral RVS type vote.

I am keeping my vote on Reinoe, as he seems most intent on pushing the train along to lynch me. While his initial reason was that I wasn't posting enough content, while I can understand that it was to prod me a bit, saying I didn't have enough content. I didn't have much content, as I didn't have as much information to go on as I do now. Hopefully I've satisfied your content portion of it.

Also regarding TN, as he is the other one with votes. after re-reading, I',m going to say leaning a little towards scum, but still closer to neutral. He was second vote as described by me before, but I don't think that is enough to call him scum at this point. We will see how it plays out.

I'm sorry if I've worded it wrong. Just to make things clear, my first vote - my random vote - was for Tn; I was then the first person to vote you, but intentionally (as opposed to random). ^^;

In your previous post (#207), you said that Reinoe's vote on your wagon, which was the second wagon to form, made him look more suspicious to you. I'm curious as to why you think so - the second and third votes are kind of understandable, but why do you have such a thought about wagons? If the second wagon to form wasn't your own but someone else's, would you still find Reinoe scummy based on the same premises?

(By the way, I think your posts are a lot better in terms of content than before.)

I understand that when you voted for me, it was the first vote TN had changed his random vote, and your vote was for a reason, to me it seem still like a fishing vote, slightly above random, whereas reinoe's vote seem intent on pushing the train forward.
Now his comment:

Vett is straight up lying at worst and making an honest mistake at best but u.t. is all for eating it up without even thinking. And he's going into elaborate explanation to justify it.

I'm not sure what I am "straight up lying" about. While I put in my opinion about my reads of what I have seen so far, but I'm not what I am saying that would be called "lying" unless you mean a statement about me being town? If the case then is that I am making an honest mistake, what mistake is that?

In my opinion, there is very little to go off of on D1 other that which players team and join up, and which ones don't When a wagon forms against town, in many cases you can count on one of the two scum hopping on. The second scum may not so as to not expose their relationship. It is one of the pieces of information that you have to go off of on D1. You only have what people say and what people vote. Once D2 rolls around, you will generally have at least one dead town(either from the lynch or the scum night kill), and you have to look at why and who they were a threatening.

As far as the comment that you listed both TN and me, and I ignored the part about TN, that is partially fair, I did ignore that an concentrate on attack on me. I see TN as potentially scummy as well, but I saw the threat to me as more important for me to address, afterall, it was me that you voted for not TN. Should I have said, "Don't look here, look at the other scummy guy!" You think that would have been a better defense? That just sounds scummy and doesn't address to threat to me.

Have my posts been ego-centric, I guess I can agree with that. The votes and the information about me is what I have the most information about, and it is easiest for me to put together. The threats and votes for me provided me with information to process and form an opinion about some of the other players, and their interaction with me. For their interactions with the other players, I am watching that, but there is less information for me since I am dealing with two people, and I don't know their alignments, whereas interactions with me, I know my alignment, so I can better judge their alignment, or intentions.

My best reads at this point would be:
scum:
reinoe
TN

Town:
nacho
Kali

Mixed/neutral
Xayzek
unabletable
ultra
emerald

As for as my experience paying, I've played two game on another site, but the were themed type games with non-standard setups.

[vettrock]

Finally did the Xayzeck read. He's definitely town. I also like how he's not beating around the bush calling people on what he thinks might be bullshit. This entire town kinda needs a boot in the ass.

There's too much "I don't really have a read right now" and "I don't know what to say". The second one is excusable because this is a newbie game, the first one isn't.

Reinoe's read of Xayzeck is a little suspicious to me. I am leaning toward town for Xayzeck as well, but to say he is "definately town" at this point means either they are scum partner together, or he is making some rash judgments. Only scum can say who is definitely town at this point. Of course for scum, revealing your partner in this way this early in the game would probably hurt you.

I don't completely agree with the second statement. Yes everyone should be starting to form opinions about who is scum and who isn't, and there is getting to be enough content to at least make some judgement. If you haven't posted your reads, now would be a good time.

[vettrock]

Also, since you seem available, could you to the best of your abilities explain exactly what you meant in post #204? I don't want to misinterpret you, so elaborate on it, and why it effects his argument if you could c:

Vett thinks that "the second or third person on a wagon is scum". First of all this logic is so ridiculous that I can't call it anything but scummy. It's not even misguided.

Secondly I already called tn scummy and if not for vettrock being a scummy lightning-rod he'd have my vote instead.

Now specifically...
It's obvious that I voted for vett because he seemed to have an aversion to content. And I clearly stated I voted for vett because of said aversion to content. He tried to flip it around into something else entirely and then got hyperdefensive claiming I'm "leading a wagon" on him or some-such. He discredited his own argument for me like I thought he would.

In what universe is an activity pressure vote "leading a wagon"? Now yes, vett has finally decided to post actual content, but he had to practically forced to do so kicking and screaming. What is the town-motivation for posting content only when you have to?

Am I leading a wagon on him now? Yep. Was my vote at the time "leading a wagon"? Nope.



OMG dude really?

@Reinoe: I don't know how to be clearer; will you please address my concerns. I'll quote myself on the particular one:

Also, since you seem available, could you to the best of your abilities explain exactly what you meant in post #204? I don't want to misinterpret you, so elaborate on it, and why it effects his argument if you could c:

Having a temper tantrum because I'm not answering fast enough for your satisfaction? Dude fuck off. Having a life outside of this game /=misunderstanding of your b.s.

To address two of your points:
To say that it is ridiculous to suggest that the second or third person on a wagon is often scum. Looking through the wiki, there are at least a couple of people who disagree:
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... sane_Tells
Another reference saying the third and fourth vote is often Mafia:
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... ding_Mafia

While I'll concede that saying the second vote or the third vote is always mafia is silly, it is definitely an indicator.

To address the lack of content from me, as I have said before, I didn't post as much before as I didn't have enough information to form opinions. I realize this is a chicken/egg thing and if everyone just waited for information, nothing would ever get posted. Now that there is more content that I can evaluate, I'm putting my opinions out there.

To me the only town indicate I am getting from reinoe is he is pushing so hard on me, that if I get lynched, I'll show town and it is going to look bad for him if he is scum, and would probably put him in the leading position for getting lynched the next day. It looks to me he is trying to grab the abrasive player role, which I'm not sure if that is more likely to be town or scum, but it is definitely going to piss some people off. I'm not sure if that is his technique to get more out of people, or he is just naturally that way.

[vettrock]

Ultra is about to have a replacement, but Ultra is seemingly suspected by several people. I think our best case scenario for getting the most information out of the situation is for everyone who's willing, to write down whatever read they might have on Ultra, but not to post it. To wait until after his replacement comes in, and does his/her part to introduce themselves and make their own reads. Then post it, as well as an updated read on the "New Ultra". The purpose being that we're able to objectively and without bias view Ultra pre-replacement, without affecting how his replacement plays the game, kind of removing the potential for getting a clean slate.

What's the purpose of giving a replacement a clean slate, exactly?

I read this as not giving ultra a clean slate. We hold back on further analysis of Ultra until the replacement comes in. The replacement comes in and makes a few posts, and they we can post our assessment of both the old and the new Ultra. This keeps our assessment of Ultra away from the replacement until he/she can put out some information. If ultra is scummy, the more we put out now, the more information replacement Ultra has to form their cover. While I'm not sure if Ultra is scummy, I think that approach has some merit. I think it also depends on how long it takes to get a replacement. We don't want to give replacement Ultra a free ride forever.

[vettrock]

I stand by my response to unabletable. He entirely deserved getting told off. I repeatedly told everyone that I was going to do the Xayzeck read and then after finally getting to it after work he give me attitude about "being clearer" and "please address my concerns". If I wind up getting scum read for telling someone to fuck off under the circumstances presented then I'm proud to be scumread and if I had a chance to go back I'd do the same thing over again.

I'm not sure What reinoe is doing here? I'm going to be as abrasive as possible because scum wouldn't do that? Is that the plan?

[vettrock]

I'm not sure What reinoe is doing here? I'm going to be as abrasive as possible because scum wouldn't do that? Is that the plan?

Honestly, his unexpected level of anger gives me a slightly more town vibe, because that behavior inherently stands out a lot. Of course that's emotional speculation, and not based on anything strong, but I just want to make it clear that reinoe's anger doesn't, in and of itself, make me suspect him any more or less, because it could originate from town as well.

Unfortunately, I would actually agree with you that it is more of a town than scum. I would say scum has more of a tendency play a little more reserved so not to draw attention to themselves. I'm not ready to pull my vote back yet, we will see what else develops from the other players.

[vettrock]

I stand by my response to unabletable. He entirely deserved getting told off. I repeatedly told everyone that I was going to do the Xayzeck read and then after finally getting to it after work he give me attitude about "being clearer" and "please address my concerns". If I wind up getting scum read for telling someone to fuck off under the circumstances presented then I'm proud to be scumread and if I had a chance to go back I'd do the same thing over again.

I'm not sure What reinoe is doing here? I'm going to be as abrasive as possible because scum wouldn't do that? Is that the plan?

See vett, maybe it's because you're new but you're constantly misreading (misrepresenting?) intentions and tone. Normally I'd give something like this a pass if it happens once or twice, but all game you've been making comments and then backtracking on when you get called on it.

Read that post again. Do you really think I'm saying "I'll be as abrasive as possible because scum wouldn't do that"? Do you really think that's the intent of the post?

Do I think that is the intent? Not really. Do I think that is the effect, yes. So he just have to judge if you were doing it for the effect, or if you are just naturally abrasive. As I said in my other post, I am leaning towards you are just naturally abrasive and argumentative, but I'm not ready to fully commit to that.

[vettrock]

It looks to me he is trying to grab the abrasive player role, which I'm not sure if that is more likely to be town or scum, but it is definitely going to piss some people off.

Abrasiveness, politeness, wordiness: these are more often playstyle tells than they are anything alignment indicative.

Nacho, in newbie 1471 we had a long talk about how newbs who replaced out were statistically more likely to be scum. Does that have any bearing on your Ultra read?

I adopted that "replace outs are scummy" in newbie games attitude that game, and I dropped it after that game. So no, not really.

All of Kalik's posts have been so genuine that if he is playing scum he deserves a title from the title fairy.

Why is Ultra scummy? Why is Vetterock scummy?

TN:
You state who you think is scummy, but you don't answer the question as to why you think Ultra and me are scummy.

My reads are more or less as follows

Scum:
Ultra (222)
Vettrock (219)

Town: Kalik (strong read), Xayzeck (mild read), unabletable (mild read), nacho (weak read).

Null: emerald (inactive for over 2 days), reinoe (not enough content)

Because I don't understand WTF you're talking about.

I've had as little to do with cinna as possible, because inactivity, and until about 10 minutes ago was blatantly ignoring reinoe's existence, and yet you say we are associated?

I have 3 posts that could possibly apply. 112, thought a question aimed at cinna was aimed at me. 215, 219, and this post all wonder what the fuck you're talking about.

I never said that you are associated: table did. I ask you why you're so concerned about the connection being made in the first place because it's generally not a normal thing to react so strongly when you're accused of being scum with someone.

You made it my business when you started propagating this blatant falsehood. Why aren't you asking him why he's trying to buddy me. I'm being pretty clear and blatant as to who I consider my buddy in this game.

[vettrock]

OK, I messed up my quoting and put my text in the middle. What I meant to say was:
TN:
You state who you think is scummy, but you don't answer the question as to why you think Ultra and me are scummy.

[vettrock]

After some thought and consideration I am changing my vote to TN. While reinoe is aggressively pushing for my lynching, that just seems too risky of a strategy for D1 for mafia. If I am lynched, when it shows town, it would just put too much of a spotlight him, that I think he would be the certain lynch for D2. He could be depending on his partner, but as that is probably too risky. I believe he is probably town, just misguided with scum reading.

theunabletable and TN are now my top picks for scum. The scummy thing about theunabletable that I am seeing now, is the indecisive hovering around calling me scummy. He is saying that I am definately scum, but yet is not voting for me. That way when I flip town after lynching, he can push for reinoe to be lynched the next day. With two night kills, that would put us down three two and two mafia. Not good odds for town. TN can of course make the same argument, he is voting for me, but not pushing to the degree that reinoe is pushing. I'm not sure both of them are scum, but I am thinking at least one of them.
UNVOTE: reinoe
VOTE: TN5421

[vettrock]

Welcome Aloke. Let us know when you've read through and tell us what you think.

[vettrock]

I was going the quick road to burning myself out trying to be active in 6 daytime games at once with high activity.

I've gotta take care of me first, before playing games.

Wow...seriously six games. I'm playing this one, and then another one on another board, and that is more than enough for me.

[vettrock]

I am going to be camping with the cub scouts until late tomorrow night. I don't know what kind of cell coverage I'll get in the woods. I think the dead line is sometime monday unless someone hammers before that.

[vettrock]

Well I back in civilization. My take on what has happened:
I Love Fairies. Despite taking Ultra's slot, I'm getting much more of a town feel from her so far. This may be more of style than just alignment, but I think time will tell.

I think her read on emerald is interesting, and I can follow the logic as it matches emerald's behavior. I would tend to agree, so I'm moving emerald up a bit in the scummy category.

reinoe, while he was pushing hard to show I am scummy, has move in the town direction due to his later behavior. While hopefully his replacement fines me less scummy, I'm not sure all of the replacements won't make this even more difficult as there are many more styles to evaluate. I guess one can look it as if both the original and replacement seem scummy, it is probably a good bet they are scummy, but I'm not sure what I will have to make of the mixed reads.

theunabletable has moved a
So in order of scummyness I have:

TN
Emerald
unabletable
Xay
ILF
reinoe
Kali
Nacho

[vettrock]

Also Xay what is PoE?

[vettrock]

Ehhh, I'm doubting that Rei replacing out was a town thing to do. He could have just been frustrated scum who wanted out but didn't want to leave in a horrible position for a replacement to deal with. I'm not saying that's true, but I'm also not saying that Rei replacing out townish. I think it's not something we can really look into.

Maybe I'm wrong. Someone care to explain to me why they think Rei replacing out was so towny?

My town read of reinoe was more from right before that. To me, he was pushing way to hard for scum to have my lynched. When I would flip town, that would draw too much attention on his if he was really scummy. Most scum tend of be a little more subtle, although I'm not sure now much of that is personality vs alignment, but that is how I viewed it as a gut reaction.

[vettrock]

time is running out guys

wagons right now:
tn
vett
rein
emerald

i think tn is town, I think vett is town

and eh, I'm not sure how much support rein is gonna get, especially with the replacing out thing argh I really don't know how to sort this slot

anyway I'm down with either rein or emerald, among the current wagons. I'm staying on rein for now

I am willing to change to emerald if it will get us a D1 Lynch. I don't think we should go loof(rein's replacement), and of course, I'm not willing to for the Vettrock wagon.

[vettrock]

UNVOTE: TN
VOTE: Emerald
I think we need a D1 lynch, and I think emerald is more likely at this point with the deadline approaching, and TN's votes going down rather than up.

[vettrock]

God I am so fucking lost in this game. I really have no idea who to distrust, and am beginning to feel that my intuition is an inadequate guide in a scenario like this, that a random vote may be better than my best vote at the moment.

In an effort to stimulate a little something, one thing I'm confused about. Why have you scumread me so much, Vettrock?

Also, what does Loofah think?

I find you scummy mostly based on 287 and 212. You say that I am the scummiest in the game, but have not voted for me. While I'm not trying to call you to vote for me, this looks a bit scummy to me as you are pushing me towards a lynch, but don't want to actually put you vote behind it. It seems to be the careful proding, while trying not to be too aggressive that scum would do.

[vettrock]

prodge
i worked my ass off

Can I have a translation please?

[vettrock]

no idea for kali? based on who you have down as town and scum, that would make kali town by PoE

how can you have no idea on kali though? can you elaborate on what is stopping you from reading him?

Okay yes PoE would make kali town. The reason I'm hesitant to actually townread him is that while he doesn't come off as super measured, he doesn't also seem to do much that's at all controversial. Maybe he's just playing it safe but if so he's doing it really gracefully. But yes, if vett or nacho turn out to be town, kali will be on my scum list.

While this is partly Kali's fault for put putting the pronoun in her profile, Kali is a she. I just say that because it is something confusing who you are refering to when you use the wrong pronoun (not that it is in this case)

[vettrock]

Any thoughts? Anyone want to ask me anything?

Are you roleclaiming VT?

[vettrock]

Emerald's postings and analysis when he is at L-1 with less than a day to go seem fairly town to me. If he was scum, at this point, I woukd think most people wouldn't take the time for all of the analysis. I guess you could look at it as a last ditch effort to avoid the lynch, but it seems believable to me.

I'm not sure Kali is the best pick for scum, I find TN a better choice, or unable. I'm a bit hesitant to jump again so close to the deadline. What is the consensus from everyone else?

[vettrock]

And for the gender thing. I don't really mind, I guess. <.< I was curious as to how people would consider me if I excluded it completely, and it appears that I sound masculine. ô.ô

You know you can set you pronoun so that it appears by your avatar in your profile settings.

[vettrock]

We have a little over 13 hours as of thus post. I've said emerald seems a lot more town to me now. I'd like to go back to the TN lynch. I'd be willing to support others to prevent a No Lynch. My next scummiest would probably be unable. I could support a Kali wagon, but it is not my top pick.

[vettrock]

To unable: I can completely sympathise with the confused reads, as there is only so much information to go off of. I do feel the same way. I will admit my first thoughts in the game were that people accusing me were scummy, and the more adamant they were, the more scummy. After reinoe and his tirade I did some re-evaluation. Part of the problem for me is too many people seem to find my posts scummy, and since there are only two scum, at least some of them have to be mistaken rather than scummy.

I've tried to go back and look at what everyone has posted, and re-evaluate.

Kali's last post saying she thinks emerald is town but is still voting for his somewhat suspicous, so I'll say I am willing to support a wagon for Kali. Additionally, since I've said I thim emerald is town, I'm going to go ahead and move my vote. I still think we neex a lynch, so I'll try and check back before the deadline. My top choice is still TN.

VOTE: TN

[vettrock]

So with the time running down, I've gone back and looked at the ISOs, and will try and answer the questions directed at me:

I can completely sympathise with the confused reads, as there is only so much information to go off of. I do feel the same way. I will admit my first thoughts in the game were that people accusing me were scummy, and the more adamant they were, the more scummy. After reinoe and his tirade I did some re-evaluation. Part of the problem for me is too many people seem to find my posts scummy, and since there are only two scum, at least some of them have to be mistaken rather than scummy.

You still scumread me, though?

I don't find you as scummy as before. Your uncertainty appears more genuine. I have a lot of uncertainty, so I probably can't call that a scumread without scumreading myself (which it appears a lot people have done).

@Vettrock:

- Why don't you think Loofah shouldn't be lynched?
- You found me town in #414 and you've obviously changed your mind, and that's okay. Would you mind explaining why? If it's Emerald's post that has convinced you, *which* points did you actually find convincing, and why?

Kali's last post saying she thinks emerald is town but is still voting for his somewhat suspicous, so I'll say I am willing to support a wagon for Kali.

I'm not voting Emerald, I never voted Emerald, please check my iso.

Loofah hasn't posted enough for me to evaluate, but with reinoe, as stated before, I found him unlikely to be scum, because of the amount of certainty and effort he put into scumreading me. It just seemed an unwise stategy for scum, since when I flip town, it would point a big finger at him. Granted this analysis really only works from me since I know I'm town, but that is where I'm drawing that opinion from.

Looking at emerald's post about you and following the links back, his analysis seemed to make sense to me. I think what he said about 310 and 191 was valid. Granted everyone is grasping at ephemeral straws here, so its not like it is rock solid, but it made sense to me.

Agreed, you didn't vote for emerald. That was my mistake.

VOTE: tn

L-2

Oh boy, this is gonna be Charlie all over again.

What does this mean?

Looking back at everyone's ISOs, two that I townread before but are looking more suspicious to me are Xay and Nacho. The content from both of them just indicates who they found scummy and town, but very little real analysis, just questions for everyone else. I also take into consideration, they are some of the more experienced on the site as an SE and IC, but have not really provide much reasoning behind any of there reads. Part of the blindness on my part is both read me as town, so in the egocentric view that I apparently have (as several have pointed out) I didn't give them as much scrutiny as the others who found me scummy.

So in my scummy pile I now have TN, Xay, Nacho, and Kali. Obviously, only two can be scum. I'm going to admit that I don't know which two. I'm going to keep my vote on TN for time being as that appears to be the only viable wagon at this point. If someone else can get something going that I could support, but I'm not sure I'll make it back before the deadline.

[vettrock]

I have explained my reads before?

You have explained your TN read, your read of me as newbtown, and a little bit on your reinoe read. Looking at your ISO, there is very little reasoning posted behind any of your other reads, just stating what they are, and asking other people what they think.

[vettrock]

I have explained them but there's very little reasoning? Is there anything in particular you want an elaboration on?

Posts 97 and #356 are the only posts with any kind of reasoning or explanation. If could could say point to any specific things anyone has said in order to come up with your conclusions.

[vettrock]

Kali was the kill, which also makes complete sense. He's been townread by almost everybody (will get to this,) and his only downside was that he was super, duper, explicitly townread by one of the more suspicious players. He was probably a necessary kill, and would have had a bit of a mandate had he lived.

This is about the worst case scenario for emeraldemon, who pushed the hardest to start the bandwagon on Tn in the first place, and had his largest scumread being both of the two confirmed townies. In addition to this, he had drawn significant heat on his own (I'll be rereading more in the next few days, to decide more clearly on whether that "heat" was justified in the first place,) and his fervor in getting Tn lynched before him was significant at the very least.

Given this, he (or his replacement) would be my top concern.

There's an additional layer that I feel is fairly significant: The necessity of extending night 1 due to two members not being available. While circumstantial, the pattern is too visible to ignore, especially when the two members holding up night 1 are two of the most concerning members already (emerald and Reinoe's replacement, Loofah.) They have a particular interaction which is the only thing that leaves me uncomfortable with the idea of them both being scum. I don't have time to post more, but it seems more likely than any other lead that one, or both, of them are scum.

the one says that Kali was a strong town read was TN in 238, and 243 who is also confirmed town, so I'm not sure what that gains us.

My suspects have shifted to Xay and Nacho. Xay is an SE and Nacho is an IC, but in all of their content so far, they have spent asking others who they think is scummy, and why. They describe who they think is scummy, but there is no reasoning behind it, other that a statement that they think X is acting scummy. No references to posts that they made or behaviors. The seems to me to be pretenting to scum hunt rather than scum hunting. Given Xay's vote for Nacho, I'm not sure if this is bussing, or if only one of the two is scum. They are the top of my list. Most of the others at list a reasoning or analysis for their scumreads, even if it is weak reasoning, and as more experienced players I would expect more reasoning and analysis rather than less. Do the ISO on both of them and look for any post where they say, I find X scummy because of this thing that they said, or this behavior that they were exhibiting. I did that and saw very little.

For my part, I didn't have them high on my list since I was focused on defending myself. Both of them saw me as town, which caused me to look more carefully at the others who were calling me scummy. This was an error on my part, and product of the "egocentric" style I had so far during this game. Hopefully, I have learned something, and will try to improve my analysis. Everyone let me know what you think.

[vettrock]

This is about the worst case scenario for emeraldemon, who pushed the hardest to start the bandwagon on Tn in the first place, and had his largest scumread being both of the two confirmed townies. In addition to this, he had drawn significant heat on his own (I'll be rereading more in the next few days, to decide more clearly on whether that "heat" was justified in the first place,) and his fervor in getting Tn lynched before him was significant at the very least.

Given this, he (or his replacement) would be my top concern.

There's an additional layer that I feel is fairly significant: The necessity of extending night 1 due to two members not being available. While circumstantial, the pattern is too visible to ignore, especially when the two members holding up night 1 are two of the most concerning members already (emerald and Reinoe's replacement, Loofah.) They have a particular interaction which is the only thing that leaves me uncomfortable with the idea of them both being scum. I don't have time to post more, but it seems more likely than any other lead that one, or both, of them are scum.

So I forgot to address the other points in unable's message. I seem emerald's push as mostly defensive, so I'm not sure that is the best indicator, although I wouldn't completely let him off the hook, but I've put my latest suspects out there in my above post.

For the Meta of extending night, I wouldn't read too much into that. If I was a moderator, I would extend the time no matter who was mafia as to not give away any indication of who is scum. It wouldn't be fair otherwise. We have to assume anyone can be scum, and if the moderator sayd that night was going to be ending and the mafia didn't have a chance to perform any actions, it would be a giveaway. Even if that is not the case, if one of the replacements had a role of cop, doctor, or jailor, they would be town, but still have a night action to take.

[vettrock]

@Vett you think Xay is hard bussing Nacho?
Also why no vote if you think either is scum?

I don't necessarily think Xay is bussing Nacho, but it is a possibility. They are my highest suspicions right now, but as I said I'm not sure if one, or both are scum. Assuming only one is scum, then it isn't really bussing.

As for the vote, it is still early in Day 2, and I think there should be some discussion around this to see what everyone else thinks about it.

[vettrock]

You say you think Xay and Nacho are most likely scum, therefore scum team is Xay and Nacho. Xay has voted Nacho!!! if they are a team Xay is bussing Nacho!!!

So you are waiting to see who wants to vote for who before voting?!?

VOTE: vettrock

There are no certainties in this other than what was already revealed about TN and Kali with both of them being VT. Yes, they are my main suspects, am I certain they are scum, no. Are both of them scum, possibly. If they are both scum, then yes Xay is bussing Nacho. I am putting forth my opinion and I am waiting for the rest of the town to either find problems with my logic, or evidence to support, or to refute my findings.

If you find that scummy fine, but I have explained my reasoning. If you want to vote for me for encouraging discussion before jumping forward, that is fine too, I just know that you are mistaken.

[vettrock]

They describe who they think is scummy, but there is no reasoning behind it

if you want something

why don't you ask for it?

OK, I'll ask. For those who you find scummy and those who you find to be town, can you provide some basis other than they "seem town" or "seem scummy". While I haven't referenced posts, and provided quotes for everything, I think I have for the most part provided my reasoning beyond just a feeling. I understand that a big part of this game is intuition, but you have to throw in at least a little logic and reasoning. And if you have some logic and reasoning behind your picks, I think generally this should be something you should offer up to the group. I understand people don't always have time to write a wall, but over the course of Day 1, most people have been able to provide at least some reasoning behind their picks.

[vettrock]

As an addendum to my last post, like it says in reinoe's signature:
Scum typically need to fabricate reasons for scumreads...

[vettrock]

One problem I have is that you keep bringing up your own egocentric play. Scum are very selfaware, so the fact you keep bringing it up bothers the hell out of me.

The reason I bring this up because it was an observation about my playstyle, and after looking at it objectively, I could see where they were getting that from my postings. The people that accused me, were viewed as scummy, and those who said I was town, were not given as much scrutiny. This wasn't on purpose, but after it was pointed out to me, I realized that was the way I was playing. This forced me to go back and re-evaluate my reads. Looking through it again more objectively, I put forward my new evaluations, and asked for comments from everyone, and hope that you and everyone else can provide some input to my reads, and provide your own.

[vettrock]

ILF hasn't posted yet, don't remember much of her, so I dunno. I'll leave it as null to nulltown probably.

Player z hasn't even posted but for some reason I'm gonna say null with a town lean

Geesh you guys, I'm getting flak for not posting less than a Day? That's bullshit.

you are?

Guy's usage of words put a negative connotative spin on my lack of activity so far.

I think Guy was making fun of Xayzeck post more than ILF's posting habits.

So my turn to be snarky...
Xayzeck: If you don't remember much of ILF's posting, there is this great thing about the boards here. They keep a record of everything that everyone posted. You can even just look at their posts by clicking on the ISO link.
/snarky
Seriously, if you would say, I have to go review the posts, but I don't have time now, that at least sound legit. I don't remember, so I'm going to just null-townread?

[vettrock]

...I replaced in. There was no way I could have voted prior to post #355.

The chart shows the votes for the slots with who is currently in the slot, so votes from the slot you now occupy are shown in your column.

I'll try and provide some updates to my thoughts tomorrow night. I'm going to bed now.

[vettrock]

Nooooo, I'm the Ultra slot. Guyett is the Reinoe slot. Wolfy is the Emerald slot.

Y'know, reading post 570, made me wonder: was I the only person who found Emerald to be scummy before everyone piled onto my vote on him? If so, we should probably more closely consider those who voted on Emerald after I did who previously did not read Emerald as scum.

yes - that does stand out.
Absolutely zero interest in Emerald (my slot) until you voted then very rapidly to L-1.
Vettrock and Xayzeck showing a similar colour scheme.

To explain my thought process on the voting. At the time time I was voting for TN who I viewed as scummy. Emerald gor the most part had been fairly lurky. I did nit want to have a no lynch and emerald's wagon appeared better than TN's chance of happening. Emerald made a dencent defense with his postings at that point which appeared to be legitimate town behavior. I then returned my vote to TN. While Xay did the same thing afterwards, while I do think either he or Nacho (or both) are scummy, I wouldn't single that out as the scummy behavior. The deadline was approaching and a mislynch on day 1 I think is generally better than a no lynch.

[vettrock]

What do you mean "weary of him in a way that I didn't consider possible on the first day"? I'm kind of confused as to what you're saying.

I suppose it's a bit abstract, but so far in my mind, it's been difficult to view Vettrock alongside the other players. His posts were weird and unproductive, and it made me suspicious of him because he stood out, never did much to help. and bandwagoned everything in the universe. But he is doing much better in all of those regards suddenly, which on one hand makes me happy, because his posts are worth reading, and it makes him seem much less suspicious. On the other hand, though, a player that I was suspicious of just pulled a stylistic 180 and has made me no longer suspicious of him, which inherently means that I have to like, keep watching him, to stay 'weary of him'. Does that make sense?

To me the biggest difference in what I am posting now as compared to the beginning is there is significantly more information available now as opposed to early in Day 1. We have voting patterns and more content and analysis that other players have provided to comment on.

In the effort to put my vote where my suspicion lies, I am going to:
VOTE: Xayzeck

As stated, I'm leaning towards a scummy Nacho as well, and I think one of the two is scummy at least.

Also for Unable: Be sure to use the Vote tag, or bold, or the Mod can miss you vote.

[vettrock]

Don't care about Reinoe's outbursts tbh. He is a very emotional player from what I've seen.


@Vett that was an unannounced L-1

Sorry, I Actually didn't realize this.
UNVOTE: Xayzeck
I'm going to unvote for the moment to leave it open for some discussion, but to be clear where my FoS is pointed at Xay at this point.

[vettrock]

How do you know scum has a Roleblocker???

Because you told me.

It's the only common factor between BP and Doctor. In the case that your Mafia Roleblocker (I'm fairly certain that's Wolfy, you're just the Goon) is outed, you want the other player to have the safer claim. Which is a moot point, really when you consider my analysis of your next thought:

You know you're going to get lynched either Today or Tomorrow. BP didn't muster a counterclaim, so you knew that there was no BP. You then decided it would be in your best interests to try to out a TPR. Because you know the two options of TPR left are Doctor or Cop, you knew that Doctor was the safer claim. You were hoping to get a counterclaim out of all this so that while you might be lynched either Today or Tomorrow, your teammates knows at least one of the TPRs.

The reason you didn't out the Cop in this case is because you know there is a doctor as well. If you outed the Cop, your teammate is screwed because the Doctor will protect the Cop and the Cop will out your teammate (Wolfy) Tomorrow, leading to your loss.

While I follow the analysis, one of the issues, is Guyett didn't wait very long for a counterclaim with his BP role. There was an hour and 16 minutes, between his claim of BP, and claim of doctor. Mostly likely very few of us actually read the BP claim before reading the Doctor claim.

Assuming Guyett is scum and they know they have a role-blocker, I can see the doctor claim having some use as it may force out the doctor, so they scum know who to kill. However if there is a bullet-proof, and jailer out there, He just confirmed that is he scum to two town players. It may the part of the town that is already trying to lynch, but it seems a pretty risky move for scum. On the other hand, assuming still that he is scum, and that they have a role blocker, His BP claim would out him as scum to the true BP, and (but not the jailor), and if he was wrong about the format, to the cop and doctor would both know he is scum.

I'm generally in favor of the lynch all liars, which Guyett has shown himself to be, although I'm not entirely convinced he is scum.

Which is funny because I know that you know exactly what I know and you know that I know what I know and that I know that you know.

This is the most convoluted WIFOM I think I have read. I'm not disputing it, I just got a chuckle out of it.

[vettrock]

I would agree that we need to lynch one of the two doctors. Assuming we lynch correctly, most likely the other one will be night killed. This will put us at 4 town, one scum, and down one doctor.

Assuming we lynch incorrectly, we can still lynch the other one on day 3. I can't think of a situation where the day 2 lynchee flips doctor, and we don't lynch the other one. We would start day 3 with, 2 scum and 3 town. When we lynch the scum, we will start day 4 with 1 scum, and two town. That's going to be tough situation. although not impossible for to pull out a town win.

[vettrock]

This tells me if we lynch Guyett and he flips town, ILF and Xayzeck are the scum team. Assuming Guyett is scum, who is the scum partner?

I am leaning towards lynching Guyett, but Xayzeck's insistence on lynching now when we have 7 days to discuss is a little scummy to me.

I'm leaning toward Guyett, because I don't think the scum team would out themselves as a team that if they were lying.

[vettrock]

As of Xayzeck's PR. He is not keeping the role from the scum, only from town. If the scum as a role-blocker, they know he is a cop. If they do not have a role-blocker, they know he is a tracker. Since he already claimed a PR, I don't know the point of not identifying the role.

[vettrock]

So I guess Nacho or whoever the mafia is was smart.

VOTE: Vote: No lynch

I have a lot of patience, Mr. Scum, do you?

I can support that.

VOTE: No lynch

[vettrock]

While Xayzeck method is faster it is less certain. Since both the doctor and the cop are out, if there is a kill, we will get one track. If we NoLynch again tonight, and Xayzeck tracks Nacho, and there is No Kill again, I think we have to assume it is Nacho that is the scum and he isn't doing the killing because we know that we are tracking him. At that point I think we need to Lynch him. We will be at the same point we are now if there is no night kill.

If we Lynch Nacho tonight and he is scum, we win. If we Lynch Nacho and he is not scum, Most likely the Doctor will be killed. Xay will track wolfy. If wolfy did the kill Xay would report it and it would be game over, we win. If Nacho and wolfy are not scum, and there is a kill we have:

Xay, Wolfy as town and the scum is either me or unable, so 50%, however we pick the wrong one, Mafia wins, as they will nightkill somone and will be left with one scum and one mafia.

If we do not lynch tonight, and there is a night kill of the doctor and it does not track to Nacho, we are left with:
Xay, Nacho as town, and unable, wolfie and me as unconfirmed.

While we have a 33% chance of hitting scum, If we select town, the next day (assume Xay is nightkilled and can't reveal who he tracked.) We are left with:
Nacho - town, and two unconfirmed, so now we are at the 50% win or lose point.

Looking only at the situations where we have to "guess" ie discounting Xay tracking the scum to the kill, etc:

So the scenario where we NoLynch, we have a 33% of winning on Day 4, and then a 50% change on Day 5. This results in a 66% chance* of a win for town, vs. a 50% chance for Lynch incorrectly tonight.

*I calculated the chances of a town win by multiplying the chance that we lynch incorrectly 66% by the 50% change lynch correctly on day 5, and then added the 33% chance we lynched correctly on day 4.

[vettrock]

I'll get my calculator out.

From

your

perspective (if you are town...);

Conf Town

• ILF
  Xayzeck
  vettrock

Scum

one

of Nacho, wolfy, theunable

• 1. Lynch Nacho Day 3 - if Nacho guilty game over.
  2. Xay tracks Wolfy N3
  3. If Wolfy guilty - lynch wolfy
  or If Wolfy inno - lynch theunable

So, vettrock,

if you are town

, the clear course of action is to lynch.

Exactly the same logic should apply for anybody who is town.

The only flaw in your logic is that while I know I am town, everyone else does not. So when we are at step 3, I would vote for unable, unable would vote for me, and Xay would have to chose one of the two of us to believe. If he believes me, we win, if he believes unable(assuming we are at that point and unable is the scum) we lose. 50% chance based on Xay's judgement.

In the NoLynch situation, (assuming Nacho is not scum, and there is a nightkill of the doctor) We have Xay, and Nacho, Wolfy, me and unable. I would probably vote Wolfy, and then unable. Provided Nacho and Xay vote wolfy, and then unable the next round, I guess the result is the same. The advantage to town would be that we would have two confirmed town making the decision as to which of the three (wolfy, unable, or myself) It would take three votes to lynch, so if Xay and Nacho agree, it shouldn't be hard to get one of the other three to agree given that Xay and Nacho would be confirmed town. My assumption at this point is they would vote Wolfie. The next day we would have Nacho, and two others, It can be assume that the two remaining would vote for each other, and Nacho would have the 50% chance based on his judgement.

I think the most likely scenario would be that Nacho is scum, so this may all be moot, as we would determine that in either case. It is really only an issue if the other scum is unable.

[vettrock]

Given that Wolfy is supporting this method, and he is the one being tracked, I'm pretty confident he would not be pushing this if he was scum. This leads me to think that Nacho is most likely to be scum. I'm comfortable going forward with that.

VOTE: Nacho

[vettrock]

Well you did get both of the power role out, the problem was when Xay tracked Nacho, and there was no night kill that puts a whole lot of suspicion on Nacho. If He would have tracked someone else, Nacho could have killed ILF, which would have prevented further tracking since Xay could be killed prior to reporting. If you are a doctor or BP as town, what should you claim when you are at L-1. I'd actually be leaning towards claiming VT, or just doing a generic PR claim, although any PR claim is going to out you to scum.

[vettrock]

I enjoyed the game. I did see that Nacho did submit the No Kill in the QT so it wasn't just inactivity, he knew he was being tracked, which made him suspicious.

I have to agree with Cherry about the subing out. I would like as few subs as possible as it makes it hard to follow, and I think disrupts the game. If you have to sub out for personal reasons, fine, but I don't agree with subbing out for tactical reason. Additionally, other tha Nacho saying it gave him a town read (for obvious reasons) I don't know that it really convinced anyone else. I starting to lean more toward town on the slot, but the replacement wasn't what did that.