Newbie 345: Another town has fallen...

[Ectomancer]

vote Mert

That avatar is clearly going to kill town.

FYI, watch the votes. I would hate to see a quicklynch.

[Ectomancer]

Wow, I've never played in a game this small before. Yeah, we better watch it since a lynch needs only 4 votes and that shouldn't be hard to gather.

Random

Vote: BrazeGoesMoo

since I don't know who to suspect yet.

Ok, now what? I suppose we should all start shifting our votes?

Unvote, Vote: Vel-Rahn Koon

Bad vibes here. First you say that you've never played in a game

this small

before, and go on to explain the danger of voting with only 4 votes required to lynch. That implies a level of experience with the game.
Then you post a "what do we do?" as though you are trying to play the total newb card.
I wouldnt call it lying, but I would say that you look as though you are trying to generate an impression in your second post that is refuted by your first post.

vote diamondfalcon

[Ectomancer]

EBWOP: Forgot to unvote first.

Unvote Mert, Vote diamondfalcon

[Ectomancer]

unvote

for now.

This is the first time I've ever seen this happen. Obviously we cant reconstruct the conversation, especially one like mafiascum where the turn of the phrase makes all the difference. However, we also cant just pretend like none of that conversation took place.
I'll try to give my recollection of general events in the next day or so and see if we can avoid devolving back to the random stage.

[Ectomancer]

Re-hashing a conversation that was intended to get conversation going, after the fact, and now everyone knows what the purpose of the accusations were, is not really of much use. You wont get honest reactions from someone, and in any case, IT came out strongly on the pro-town side in my view and he wouldnt be the one I would be interested in pressuring now anyhow.
@OnFire I paid attention before the wipe, and I did do an inventory of who was posting. At that time, everyone was participating. I dont recall exactly what Diamondfalcon's contribution was, other than he was indeed posting.

[Ectomancer]

Just an observation, but seems like Mert and IT are taking the same sides again. Like I said before, I wouldn't think that mafia would do this, so I suppose it's just a coincidence.

I don't agree that they're taking sides, because Mert's post 43 is, for all intents and purposes, a random vote (or that's how I'm reading it). The fact that IT is following Mert (I seem to remember he was doing this pre-crash as well - please correct me if I'm wrong) is much more interesting. I agree that I wouldn't think a scum pair would associate this closely either, but if it is a Mert/IT scum pair, then IT could just be making newbie mistakes.

Trying to get back into playing mafia since the move. Might take me another day or so to get back into the swing of things.
IT didnt strike me as newbie scum. He has appeared to have latched on to Mert a bit though. Mert, if I recall correctly, did play a kind of big brother/authority role on IT's side during some exchanges. If Mert is a subtle enough player to set up a scum/town buddy situation that early, then it appears from IT's moves that he could have a great pairing to go into a final day 3 player lylo.

[Ectomancer]

Hrmm, VK and OF are making some sense here, however 2 things prevent me from joining them, first off, I dont think IT has me fooled. 2nd, I dont like Diamond breadcrumbing a power role in an attempt to get the 2 votes off of him either. I'd prefer to see him defend himself any other way, because it is way to soon to be considering a claim.

[Ectomancer]

There's two types of players here: Town and Scum. Town have no reason to lie, and therefore they can say what they think and what they feel and not have to worry about getting lynched.

Sorry, this is way too definitive for me. Townies have all kinds of reasons to worry about getting lynched, because there are duplicitous Mafia trying to make it happen, by twisting words and "misinterpreting" posts and trying to convince other townies that they are scum. Townies definitely have no reason to lie, but that doesn't mean they have no reason to worry - the

slightest

turn of phrase can get you FoS or voted on, particularly on Day One.

A Townie who gets himself lynched is a bad player, and was lynched because he was acting scummy, and was giving off dishonest signals.

Wrong again, or "too definitive" again, at least. When there are players actively trying to get you lynched, and you get lynched, that does not

necessarily

mean that you are a bad player. Other townies could mistakenly see something that's no there or, again, scum can twist your words to make you look scummy. Why are you downplaying/ignoring the mafia's role here?

FOS Vel-Rahn Koon

:goodposting:

@Mert on the breadcrumb discussion.
As you stated, the situation could apply as either scum or town. Since the odds for either could be 50/50, on that front it makes it a wash. However, since scum power derives from knowledge they possess that town doesnt, I felt it more important for the town to possess that information than for me to keep quiet about it. As we both have pointed out as well, this is a learning game, and as I stated before, Im interested in having as many different concepts exposed as possible.
Moreover, though I will neither confirm nor deny it, if you analyze the situation I could be breadcrumbing myself by bringing it up. I said the odds were 50/50, but there is valid reason I could know the odds to be different.

[Ectomancer]

Im afraid I must disagree with the both of you. For town, it is not a choice of risk or no risk. It is a choice of risk at every move. We have such a decision on our hands today, we can lynch, or we can no lynch. Both carry risks, both carry potential rewards. Should we lynch, we then must decide who, and with that there are risks. We not only want to get scum, but also avoid offing our own power roles in the game. To avoid that happening, we can lynch off of "feel" or "vibe", or we can pressure people into claiming. Once again, more risk for the town. If we pressure the wrong role to claim on day 1, we could be setting them up for an NK.
Nothing but risk for town, so the question is, what is our likely our best return on risk?

[Ectomancer]

Wow. I guess if I give other people a chance to talk, they practically lynch themselves. You continue to disparage my frontal attack on IT, but the reactions I got around the board were telling, and with this you act as though you didnt get anything out of it. Mert and VRK make good pbp's on the exchange with IT.

vote OnFire

[Ectomancer]

Unvote

to avoid a careless hammer. I currently think OnFire is scum, but I'm open to hearing more from him before he is killed.

That's ridiculous. There is no careless hammer, and there is no tempting scum without the bait. If you think OnFire is scum, you should have left the pressure on with your vote. Once we agreed as town to lynch, we get the 4th vote on, anything before that and we know we have scum as the 4th on the wagon.
If you are open to hearing more from him, why did you take off the incentive for him to talk?

[Ectomancer]

You keep repeating short days = bad for town like some kind of mantra. Of course short days are bad for town, but long ones are only better when they yield information.
You know what we got when a speed lynch happens? We got 1 of 2 scum. We got day 2 for claims and discussion and then day 3 is our

only

lylo situation.
What happens when we setup a lynch such that the hammer isnt necessarily a scumtell? We get more speculation. If we lynched a townie, not only are we at 5 players the next day, but 2 of them are scum and we arent certain of our lynch. Oh yes, we also have back to back lylo situations.
I prefer just 1 lylo, thank you very much, but you are experienced enough that you should understand this.

[Ectomancer]

Cmon, if you are going to vote me, at least represent me correctly. I didn't advocate a speedlynch by town. I setup the situation for one, I would have been fine with one for the reasons stated. No town would have jumped on that lynch. Now however, the moment is gone.

As one of our ICs, you should know this is a newbie game in which people sometimes make foolish mistakes, such as hammering someone too early. It feels possible to me here that you are hoping for a townie misplay.

You sell me short. I have not sat back on my laurels this game. I have actively hunted for scum more than any player here. Anyone who was quiet, or even who wasnt, I've provoked responses from. That's why I know you all at least well enough to say that town would not have jumped on that quicklynch. Newbie scum very well could have. Once again, as I stated, I prefer only 1 lylo situation with an entire day 2 for discussion over back to back lylo's. It doesnt take detective work to recognize that even N1 will provide information for either scenario.

[Ectomancer]

There is no logic slip. OnFire as scum would not get a vote from other scum. That too is a tell and more information for the town. It wouldnt necessarily confirm him as scum, but it would be something else we could look at.
Mert, you spent 3 paragraphs trying to define my motivations in your own light. Then you present a case of false logic. An argument of either/or similiar to "When did you stop beating your wife". I neither thought OnFire to be town, nor scum. What I knew is that I would be setting up a situation beneficial to the town regardless of the outcome. I explained

why

each outcome would be beneficial.

Who I'm looking at now are the ones who argued about the need to take risks, yet seem eager to jump on anyone who does just that.
@Diamondfalcon - You were promoting risk, you were under suspicion and now look opportunistic jumping on my wagon without commenting on the merit of my logic. Prove me wrong if you can and then vote. You wont be able to when you realize I'm doing more to hunt scum than anyone and those possible outcomes are exactly what I said they are, good for the town.

[Ectomancer]

Had you not pulled off so quickly, you would have seen the types of reactions we could expect to get if OnFire is scum. The gambit wasnt to get OnFire lynched by scum, the gambit was to get reactions based upon a lynch -1. As you said, at this point, who knows how the reactions would go because of us having this conversation.
The bottom line is, it doesnt matter one iota if he was scum. If he got lynched, huzzah! Scum down, the following day, at worst we have a 4 town 1 scum situation. If he doesnt get lynched, we take that into consideration, and we have more information than before.

If town, and he did get lynched, yes Mert, technically it would be a lylo tomorrow, but when we already know the scum and have him lined up for the lynch, it isnt a true lylo situation for us until the following day. This is the worst case scenario for my setup, and it aint bad at all for town.
As town, he could also not have gotten lynched. Pretty much the same situation as if scum. It doesnt clear or confirm him one way or another, but we would have more information.

Once again, I think I've demonstrated that 75% of the outcomes were pro-town, the other 25% Mert and I can agree to disagree. I play poker and I would prefer 1 heads-up all in hand to win, than to play 2 heads-up all in hands to try to win, even if I were given slightly more information regarding the players on the 2 hand gambit.

[Ectomancer]

IT would never have thrown on that 4th vote as town. Have you really followed this entire game and dont know that?

[Ectomancer]

If you dont know IT from Adam, then you didnt read the game. If you feel you read the game and still dont understand how I can make that statement, then you need more exercises in reading individuals and crowd mentality.

[Ectomancer]

Im not trying to insult you. I apologize if you took it that way.

Unfortunately, specifics I could show you that were used for my conclusion have been lost to the rollback. However, in IT's case in particular and everyone's in general, there were too many psychological constraints on their possible range of reactions to that 3rd vote for them to hammer without having a compelling enough motivator to place it. A motivator that compelling would be a role based one.
Remember, this isn't a 5 page game, it is a few pages longer. So, while some of the rigid questions you asked may have been valid on page 1, by page 7 or 8 they no longer hold, especially when the discussion has been as intense as ours.
Sadly, the sequence of events that would have proven me correct was halted prematurely and we are now reduced to the realm of speculation with no way for us to run the experiment over again to prove or disprove either way.

I will also once again answer your question in a different manner. You ask finite questions of a fluid situations. The answer to both of your questions is in fact no, never and always are almost always never a good qualifier for complex topics, however in

this

game, and at

that point in time

the answer is yes, town would not have placed that 4th vote, while scum

might

have. But once again, the opportunity to prove me correct has flown.
But yes, I will also answer your unspoken question, that indeed this is predicated upon my own possibly overinflated sense of my own deductive abilities. There is risk of being wrong, as there is in every single move in this game. But I assess the risk to be very very small. A worthwhile pursuit for the knowledge it could gain. Yet, despite all the previous bluster previously about the benefit and even necessity of risks, I still find myself the only one willing to take them.

[Ectomancer]

Everyone is not equally suspicious to me, but the only people it is worth keeping track of are the people I find the most suspicious. If someone else does something I find particularly questionable I go back and reread all their posts in isolation, and then in context with the game, and then decide if the thing that bothered me still does. If it does, then they are now a candidate for the top. That being said, I am tracking why I believe everyone to be scum and there is certainly no one I would willingly trust at this point. Without any concrete information about who the scum are it is too easy for them to misrepresent themselves as town.

I get what you are saying here and I agree it is definitely easier to point to actual suspicious behavior than it is to point to a "lack of" the same, and I've been doing that. But I have read some other games and it does not seem unusual for people to construct and even post "suspicion" lists from most --> least suspicious. I was just following that practice, and I don't think there's really anything wrong with it. (And let me reiterate that "least suspicious" to me does not = "not suspicious" or "cleared.")

The suspicion list is common, or at least I have noted it to be so. I'll have to point out to IT though, that I think he is limiting his gameplay if only focusing on suspicious activity. I do make another list of who I think most likely to be town over time during a conversation and it does influence my decisions. However, I have a sufficient reserve of paranoia to avoid being completely convinced without definitive evidence.

[Ectomancer]

I had never looked at putting someone at Lynch-1 as a viable strategy in the same manner as Ecto has - I had always thought of L-1 as "forbidden territory" until the players were as convinced as possible that they were going after scum.

This is the type of psychological constraint I meant when I made my decision. Even a 3rd vote is taboo for you, much less an "accidental" 4th vote. As I said, the risk was very small indeed.


I am also interested in a Braze response to your last question.

[Ectomancer]

Forgot to mention, Im happy to wait on you Mert. Sorry it was a few days late.

@OnFire - Mert and IT look clean to me as far as a partnership goes. Their interactions have been oddly coincidental, but I think coincidence is the truth of it, at least on the part of 1 of them.

[Ectomancer]

Sorry Braze, I was going through a re-read and realized I didnt get to your question. You were asking what Mert meant by L-1.

In mafiascum, the number of votes it takes to lynch will vary based upon the number of players. That number is always the slimmest majority possible. Since the number of players varies, the number of votes to lynch always varies. Now, that being said, there is at least 1 absolute number we can use as a reference point when describing where people are voting (which can be very important in evaluating motives). The reference we use is how many votes are

left to lynch

. Thus if it only takes one more vote to lynch, we are at lynch -1 or L-1. If it takes 2 more votes, then we are at lynch -2 or L-2.
Now, either one of those situations can be dangerous, especially later in the game with fewer players, especially if we havent caught any scum yet. The reason being, scum can "pile on" to that vote if they know the victim to be town and get us to lynch town. L-2 would take 2 scum, L-1 only takes 1 of them.
Newbie games, though meant to learn are also brutal for town. We only have 7 players, so with 2 votes on them, someone is already at L-2. Both scum could jump on to that and vote town off on day 1. Town would, or could of course lynch them both and win. This however is where debate begins, or more to the point, where WIFOM begins. WIFOM is explained well on the Wiki, but simply put is anytime you are given a 50/50 choice between 2 options where 1 is right, 1 is wrong, but you have no other information, or what information you have leads to circular reasoning.

So....based upon that clarification of things, the crux of disagreement between myself and Mert is my motivations for putting OnFire at L-1. I would be disappointed if he did not. I would also be disappointed if he stated that L-1 is scummy, because it is not. Actually, all things considered, Im fairly pleased with Mert. He is reacting the way I believe I would react if confronted with similiar behavior while not being on the inside reasoning of it.
The rest of the discussion you are on your own, or at least, I'll let the discussion to this point speak for itself. We seem to be stuck on the risk assessment, and have agreed to disagree.
Which brings me to my next question, I dont have Mert pegged absolutely as scum, and in fact, he has reacted favorably to my assessments, so why have you settled for one of us being scum? In fact, I dont have anyone pegged absolutely as being scum, so how can you have it reduced to 1 of 2? That doesnt make sense to me. The only way it might make sense is if I wanted to make sure 1 of those 2 people got lynched. "Hey, it wasnt the one, it must be the other."

FOS BrazeGoesMoo

I dont like the idea of randomly lynching 1 of 2 people because they were on opposite sides of a discussion.

[Ectomancer]

If you are confused, please dont hold back on the questions. I have no problem explaining the logic behind anything I've said, and often mafia comes down to doing just that. In fact, part of what Im looking for is examples of false logic. My aggressiveness stems from the fact that you cant catch someone out unless you put them into situations to make statements of logic if they arent doing it themselves.

Anyhow, I did my best to explain Braze's question because it was specific. I can do the same for you, but I need to know exactly which concepts are confusing and need clarification.

[Ectomancer]

It was more of the two's increasing wordiness and depth of text that was making me feeling a bit wary. That and the repeated use of the "L-1 or L-2" comments confused me a bit. Now that I re-read it after Ectomancer's explanation, I can see what they were talking about.

<SNIP>

I said I believed one of you was scum because of the increased amount of wordplay going on. Large SAT words, long sentences and gambits.. A little much to throw out on a newbie game, yet there it all is, laid out in the posts beforehand. A perfect way to try and trip up an unsuspecting townie. I can see how a townie can use it to try and flush out scum, however. I'd be surprised if neither of you are scum because of this, seeing as how it's two townies just going at it while the scum stood back.

Im afraid your response made me feel worse about your position, not better. Have you really determined that a vocabulary and a tendency to string more than a few words together is a scum habit? My suggestion is to read other games we have been involved in before you base a scum tell on a players personality. If you find us to ordinarily present ourselves as Cro-Magnon in our responses, you may have a point. A little research should show that you do not.
The 2nd part of your statement implies that we intend to trip up town with those big words and sentences. I believe that any question that has been asked has been answered by multiple players, logic has been laid out, and any sources of confusion have been sought for clarification. When you consider that an educated town is one better equipped to win the game, conversation that exposes concepts or educates players is a good one for town.
This is a newbie game, but I dont believe the concepts we have introduced can be considered "advanced" (except for the initially unexplained abbreviation)

Lastly, I must take exception with your statement of "two townies just going at it while the scum stood back". I can't believe that any player in this game would state that I have let

anyone

just stand back. I've done anything but let people stand back.

Dont get me wrong, there are times when you can say for sure, "If this person is town, then the other must be scum", as when 2 people claim the same role, but your reasoning is full of holes. As I said, that makes you look like scum when you are trying to guarantee a lynch of 1 of 2 people with shoddy reasoning.

[Ectomancer]

FYI, if you look under the "submit" button, you can filter the thread by player to make a PBP a bit easier. I did it the hard way for a long time, not realizing that feature was available.

Interesting reviews of the game so far. I noticed some similarities, but also some definite opposing assessments. I also found that my top suspect is at or near the top of most everyone's list. Not sure what to make of that, but I am interested in hearing BGM's response to it all.

[Ectomancer]

Open question: What are the pros and cons of going after lurkers day one? I can see that it may encourage them to participate more, which is good. On the other hand, lynching people you have the least info on seems risky. Then again, lynching people who participate the most risks taking some of the force driving conversation out of the game, which also seems risky. Thoughts?

I don't necessarily see any cons for "going after" lurkers. As you say, lynching people with little info is risky, but "going after" does not necessarily mean lynch. As long as we don't rush too fast and they have a chance to defend themselves, I don't see it as a problem. We need everyone to participate.

Agreed. I think you know that "going after" lurkers is my modus operandi, but I certainly would not lynch one before they get involved. Now if their responses stink.....

Mert: Your list looks quite a bit like mine, with the following major (more than one place) changes:

Since Mert is not on his own list (obviously) can you tell us where he is on yours?

[/quote]

Errr, IT this is getting silly. I seriously have you pegged as townie, but now Im getting this nagging doubt. We've brought up the whole scum pair thing with you and Mert echoing everything the other says, but to completely leave him off of your assessment list? I dont know Mert well enough, but it is definitely possible for him to have put forth this gambit of being so ridiculously in tune that no one would ever believe scum would be so blatant in their backing of each other. I'm not saying they are a scum pair, but my god, coincidence only goes so far before you can no longer believe in coincidence. Newbie games don't have Masons, or I could chalk it up to that. The only people who know each other for certain on day 1 is scum.

[Ectomancer]

Aside to Ectomancer: While I obviously am not trying to make you doubt me, with as many times as I have had to reevaluate and rereevaluate you with your crazy gambits I think there is some form of karmic justice here.

Touche'

[Ectomancer]

@OnFire concerning BGM. I stated earlier that I thought his attempts to establish a must lynch pairing between myself and Mert on the flimsy basis of using SAT words and lengthy sentences was suspect. Though I might see where his math trap could be used as a viable argument against someone, the fact that he caught himself in his own trap demonstrates the fallability of the result.

As for the current lurker discussion, you must first establish the line between inactivity and lurking, which I think the discussion thus far has ignored.
Inactivity, which is a lack of posting or even reviewing the thread, does need to be addressed by the mod. This is a person who is not playing, and if were in a room with you, would have gotten up to go to the bathroom and never returned. You should never ever lynch an inactive player.
Lurking, as the name implies is someone who is keeping up with the thread, but not saying anything, or saying very little. This can take the form of short answers or questions.
Another, more refined version of lurking is the type I feel from Diamond right now in his last few posts. That type of lurker will come in, post a lot of words, but really not say much. Non-committal in nature and appealing to the current general consensus.
The last 2 types we can certainly do something about by bringing pressure for them to elaborate or take a stand. Seeing as I believe and sympathize with DF, I'm willing to cut him some slack, but if he were to continue this middle-of-the-fence routine I would not allow it to go on unchallenged.

[Ectomancer]

My wife is in school to be an RN. If you even live with a student at this time of year, you will sympathize with them as their cruel and heartless instructors will not. Thus I forgive him his last couple posts that really offered nothing new. I pointed him out as an example of how someone may be lurking in plain sight. It is finals time though, so as I stated, Im certain we can believe Diamond's reasons for his inability to post more.

As for your open question, the answer I believe is...it depends. As well ask when you should commit to a wave or when you should turn and wait for the next one. I think it is something you have to get a feel for with experience, and some people will be better than others at it.

[Ectomancer]

As I said OnFire, it all depends on the situation at the time. If I'm certain that Ive found scum, then at times I'd like them to continue on unawares, but most specifically I want his scum buddies to continue on unawares. After all, if I've already found scum, it is not him I am looking to trap. Still, that will only apply until you see them in a situation where they can do damage, in which case you have to call them out.

[Ectomancer]

eing understanding with them.

Ectomancer: I understand time constraints; I am under far more than I would like myself. I can even sympathize with having to be away from the game for a period. Life happens, and this is a game. What bothers me is you pointing out diamondfalcon’s behavior as an example of what to look out for and then not taking it further. That just seems out of character for the way you have been playing this game. I was trying to, and still would like to, understand the reasoning behind that.

As I said, my wife is in the middle of her finals (my 19 year old daughter is as well for that matter), and out of sympathy, I am cutting some slack. You need look no further for nefarious motivations, but if you have suspicions, then out with them. We could certainly use the conversation as we seem to be awaiting BGM to make another visit.

[Ectomancer]

It most definitely is usual for games to falter as they go on. The larger the game, the more likely you will hit some dead zones. It can take some effort to get it moving again sometimes.
Now, in our case, the dilemma is actually worse than in a larger game. In a larger game you can sometimes afford to vote for a no lynch. There are various reasons for doing this, such as avoiding lynching a townie, while giving your cop a night of investigation. You can do this when you know for sure that you have a cop, and scum is unlikely to guess who it might be. Anyhow, if we ever decide to do it, we want to make sure we get something tangible during the night.
The problem is, newbie games are based upon what is known as a C9 setup. We dont know the roles that are in game for certain. That means we have to assume that we wont get anything from a night except for a townie murdered.
Here is what that means by the numbers. If we no lynch today, tonight a townie dies and tomorrow we have 4 town vs 2 scum. With no new information like an investigation can provide, if we lynch, and are wrong, scum wins because after the night kill, D3 is 2 scum, 2 town, scum win.
Now, a cop could make day 2 interesting and better for town with an investigation on N1. That would give him either a confirmed townie, or a scum. Both might be a good reason to claim.
However, a C9 setup only allows a 50% chance for that to happen in a newbie game.
The odds for town are actually better for them to lynch, even if by pure random choice from amongst the 7 players.
Unfortunately for us, that means we have to actually make a decision and follow it through. Who does it make the most sense for us to lynch among us? What death would yield us the most information if we guess wrong, and what likely scum pairing might it imply?
I pose those questions to BGM

and

to Diamondfalcon when he is settled back in. Dont hold back on detail please.

[Ectomancer]

When confronted with a situation where we need to lynch, and some options can be considered equal, you go with the action that will yield us the most information.

[Ectomancer]

Do you think this is a valid reason to vote for someone? I don't mean by itself (because that would be ludicrous), but rather one data point to consider? What about you, Ecto, since you asked the original question?

I don't think it's a valid reason to vote someone. To me, it just looks like a CYA excuse to use after the fact if a townie ends up being lynched. Sure, it could be a small factor of why you're voting for someone, but it should not be the major reason behind the vote.

When confronted with a situation where we need to lynch, and some options can be considered equal, you go with the action that will yield us the most information.

This just doesn't work in LyLo. Care to elaborate? Or are you just putting this rule of thumb out for our particular game? Also, what're your answers to your own questions posed in #185?

@#190 Briefly read this. I'll try to respond when I get home from work.

My statements address our current situation, not other hypotheticals you could conjure. I wonder why you feel that considering those factors can only be for a cover your butt application. You should be trying to consider everything that gives us an information advantage.

As Mert pointed out, allow me to get the responses I requested before I share my own thoughts.

[Ectomancer]

Actually, there is one thing I would like to weigh in on. Specifically, the discussion about voting for someone based on info; I had never thought about that being a determining factor in lynching, but it does make a lot of sense, all other things being equal, as more information can only help. That being said,

it is only the case if all other things are actually equal

. I would not vote someone based on how much information their death would give unless I believed they had as good a chance of being scum as any of my other choices.

(bolding mine)
This is the crucial point to me. It sounds like a OK strategy in theory, but in practice how often are all things actually equal? It makes me very uncomfortable to think I might get lynched because I am posting good information that could be verified by my death. Doesn't this (in whatever small measure) discourage the posting of good information and other interactions that could be examined later? It just seems like academically it makes perfect sense (and I see where you're coming from, Ecto, and the qualifiers you've explained), but in reality I think it's a theory that could be easily exploited by scum to sway a lynch toward an active, pro-town player. I don't like it.

Dont make the mistake of attributing someone else's extrapolation to the originator of an idea. BMG calling you a good lynch based upon his assessment of your playstyle thus far does not make his evaluation a valid one, nor representative of anyone else's opinion but his own. You tell me OnFire, why someone would interpret a general assessment of our voting situation in such a way as to discourage another player from posting content, while advising that we stay away from the player who has contributed very little.
I make these plays to see how people will react, or use the situation to promote their agenda. I'm not liking the atmosphere being generated as a result of BMG's responses.

[Ectomancer]

I dont think you can actually take 2 sets of suspicions and pro-town statements from people and be able to compare them and declare them "equal", but what you often do run into is that you feel equally ambivalent about exactly

which of the two

you should lynch. In case it got buried in my usual cascade of words, I'll state it plainly, we need to lynch today. There is very little to gain by going to night without one. If we do, tomorrow we are in the same situation, with one less townie and less than a 50% chance of having gotten an investigation we can use.
So, you can see that "equal" doesnt necessarily mean the case against someone, but rather you are equally unsure of whether to lynch a person or not.
How do you break your indecision? By lynching the one most likely to yield information based upon their death.

Here is what I meant about the atmosphere surrounding BGM's responses.
He immediately goes into defensive mode. Instead of a positive style answer, he instead tells us why he cant say what he wants, which votes will get him OMGUS'd, and suggests that we should keep the inactive player while placing a very active player on the chopping block. The thing is, he didnt give other reasons, and then it worked out that those players happened to be the inactive and most active,

level of activity was actually the reason given

.
I didnt like any of it.
Since then, he has posted a response I did like, though it doesn't let him off my hook.

I'd almost agree that it looks a bit like a loaded question, but I don't see what your being at L-2 has to do with it. You think it was asked soley so he can find a reason to put you at L-1? If that's what you think, then your response is remarkably calm and lacking on the sort of attack on Ecto you'd expect from such a move.

Eh? It's always good to be calm in a logic game, unless you're trying to elicit some sort of response from someone. Since it looked like a loaded question, it was possible Ectomancer was trying to get more than just an answer to the question. Best thing to do is just answer the question.

If I were angry in my response, or at least put forth some sort of emotion, you or someone else would just go "why the outburst, it's only a question?" Ecto's question could go either way. In fact, responses to answered questions could go either way, either for or against. I just chose to answer the question put forth, despite it being loaded or not.

:goodposting:

[Ectomancer]

unvote

Forgot to unvote Onfire earlier.

[Ectomancer]

Have you ever heard of "product placement"? It's a matter of how you present an item in order to draw the consumers attention to it.
Im afraid I have to agree with Mert. When I read your posts originally, I got a similiar impression to the one that he got. Though we can clearly see on your reposts that what you say is there is in fact, in there, or at least the words are. What you are lacking in them is the product placement. It's not right out front making a statement. It's sitting there between the potatoes and celery if you get my meaning. It's not a center piece of your reply as Mert feels it should have been.
In fact, (Mert didnt say this) I felt like what you say is "calling me out" was nothing more than a cliched response to my prod on you and Diamond. \paraphrase "How about

you

answer your own question, huh?"
I intend to answer my own question, but not because of any "pressure" I feel from BGM. The delivery style was such that I didnt feel it was anything more than a weak attempt to deflect an inquiry that was designed to generate content.

That OMGUS vote for Mert didn't help matters any. My notion that you can choose a lynch between 2 likely candidates based upon information to be gained is not valid when one individual is putting themselves out in front like this. At that point, you lynch the scummiest.

[Ectomancer]

Could you spell the lie out for us? You mean, he said you didn't pressure me, but you did? If you are voting him for lying, that's a serious charge. It looked to me like you were voting him for his attack and his vote on you, but that would make it a different story. I'm not convinced that there was a lie yet though.

[Ectomancer]

Ugh. I guess replacements can be inevitable, but I'm mighty confused as to why Diamond posted and then was replaced about an hour later.

Good luck Yagami and welcome. Unfortunately, a couple good pages of information was lost when the site went down.

Now, have fun explaining your way out of Diamond's last post. BGM's assessment of it was pretty good.

[Ectomancer]

Alrighty. Since Diamond is gone, I'm no longer waiting on his response. I'll get some time later this weekend or Monday possibly to put my thoughts together. How much time I have will determine whether it will be a paragraph or a thesis.
In light of IT's rundown of the votes, I think it only fair to Yagami to know that we lost a couple pages of posts. If you were to toss the votes from those pages onto IT's list, you'll find that most players voted for me at one time or another.
I don't recall exactly, is there anyone who

didn't

vote for me at one time or another?

[Ectomancer]

YagamiLight/Everyone: I was reading the arguments between Mert and BrazeGoesMoo and your clarifying out one of the things they were arguing over and found myself wondering the following: If I can see the root of an argument/misunderstanding between two players, is it better to point it out (on the basis that if I can see the miscommunication it is not based in a lie and thus does not lead to scum) or to let them try to fight it out (on the basis that that increases the pressure on them and so, if either is scum, makes a slip-up more likely)? I have been opting for the second but I am wondering if this just allows us to waste more time with fruitless arguments. Thoughts?

Leave them alone and let them fight! Don't put excuses into someone else's mouth because you can see how that might help their side of the story. In fact, I would be looking at a possible scumbuddy connection if you did. Even if you think it may be fruitless, something is bound to be of use later.

Still haven't gathered the time I want for review. Things are moving along right now, so no biggie, but I'll get back to who would yield info before the day is up.

[Ectomancer]

Ok, Mert is right, a no lynch for town today is a bad deal for us. We do need to lynch and we only have until Friday. My choice is going to be BGM. The decision is based upon earlier conjectures that I had:

Here is what I meant about the atmosphere surrounding BGM's responses.
He immediately goes into defensive mode. Instead of a positive style answer, he instead tells us why he cant say what he wants, which votes will get him OMGUS'd, and suggests that we should keep the inactive player while placing a very active player on the chopping block. The thing is, he didnt give other reasons, and then it worked out that those players happened to be the inactive and most active,

level of activity was actually the reason given

.
I didnt like any of it.
Since then, he has posted a response I did like, though it doesn't let him off my hook.

Since then his exchange with Mert hasnt made me feel better. Im sorry BGM, I was reading the whole thing, but I never saw where Mert told a lie. That looks like a dramatic stretch to make your point, and town has no need to overstate a case against someone.
Also, with all of the interchange with BGM and other players, we are likely to gather more information after the fact than with anyone else. Giving the nature of things, I would actually be looking more for distancing scum than for his death to clear someone if BGM does turn out to be scum.

vote BGM

[Ectomancer]

We have to give BGM a night to prove himself without a counterclaim coming forth. We also do not want to no lynch. If DiamondFalcon were still here, he would be my definite choice. Yagami hasn't been scummy, but not townie exactly either. I didnt like this quote because it seems like the opportunistic easy vote on the 2 people who are debating each other.

Well, right now the highest two on my list are BGM and Mert, who seem pretty even. But, I don't want to vote since BGM claimed cop. I'm gonna wait and see if anyone counter claims. I'll place my vote by Thursday though.

Based upon that small issue, combined with DiamondFalcon's actions before Yaga arrived, and our very near deadline, Im going to

unvote, vote Yagamilight

[Ectomancer]

By page 10 post #234, they were well into their discussion, with BGM already had said that Mert lied, etc. All that had already happened, so you cant exactly say that post #234 clears you of using that conversation as an easy mark for a vote.
Now that doesnt mean it isnt possible that you had them as #1 and #2 on your scum list, but there is no prior evidence to that effect, due partly to you replacing in, I understand. Like I said, it is a small issue to finger you specifically over, but you arent just liable for your actions, you inherited DiamondFalcon's as well and on that basis you are #2 on my scum list behind BGM.

[Ectomancer]

With that unvote Yagami actually put his head in the noose....
I cant lynch a townie.

unvote, vote BGM

[Ectomancer]

I cant see scum volunteering their head for the noose. That's exactly what Yama did. You both had 3 votes, and when he unvoted you, he knew he would be lynched if nothing changed. He looks very town to me.
You on the other hand are a liability. Just because there is no counterclaim doesnt mean you are cop. There is a 50% chance that we dont have a cop at all. You bring us nothing as cop on Day 1. Tomorrow we cant trust your "investigation", especially if we lynch town today. Guess what, we have no way to test your claim. The

only

use to us you might be is if we were to lynch scum today. I dont think Yama is it after his last play. If we only had 1 scum left, we could at least trust you if you said someone was innocent after investigation.
We aren't in that situation though. There are 2 scum, so your "investigation" cant be trusted at all. On top of that, no matter how the game plays out, at best we will come down to a final day decision where whichever town member is left must either choose between the an unproven claim of cop, or the other guy who the "cop" will of course have found a "guilty" upon. Personally I think I would vote against the scummy acting claimed cop.

No, I'll skip that drama. I'll place my bet on the person who willingly placed his neck in the noose to give town a better chance, misguided as that play probably is.

[Ectomancer]

FoS: Ectomancer

Lesser-FoS: {V-RK, OnFire}

Right now I'm definitely leaning toward Ecto being scum. I don't see why any protown player wouldn't have at least entertained the idea of letting the claimed cop live one night to see what information this could yield. The fact that he was third on the wagon disturbs me greatly.

Because I felt it was a 25% chance of BGM being town, and a 90% chance of Yagami being town. Had this been a larger game, I would concede your point. In a 7 player game though, no, I would be a fool to vote Yagami off, regardless of BGM's claim. We all know what the situation was, BGM looked scummy all the way up until that claim, which made it look like nothing more than a desperation play. On the scale of valuable players, I'll keep the one who appears to be town over the unverifiable cop claim.

What I would like to go back and review is how we got deadlined with 2 town on the chopping block. There definitely had to be some manipulation in order for that to happen.

Mert I dont trust.
OF looks good despite being on BGM's wagon. That wagon was justified and we all know it was. I'm almost afraid to pick him town because Im always wary of being taken, but right now he is #2 on my town list.
IT I still believe to be town.
V-RK has some flags after a re-read that do not look town to me.

I'll go for a more specific breakdown later, but right now Mert/V-RK look the likeliest scum pairing.

[Ectomancer]

I was hoping IT would show up and post, but I reckon we may end up with a replacement.

OF, nice thinking went into that post, it's an example of why I feel you are probably town, however it did touch near, yet miss the major point.

2 hours before deadline, we're deadlocked on 2 players. The likelihood of someone else finding themselves elevated to the chopping block was slim to none at that time. Yagami made a move that struck me to the heart as town. I don't see scum making that move at all. So, I can leave my vote on the guy I believe to be town, or move it to the guy who plays like scum and has a last minute desperation claim. Believe me now and hear me later...wait, reverse that...when you are in a small game like this, or are down to limited players, a vanilla townie is worth way more than an unconvincing power role. Think about this, 50% of the C9 setups don't even have a Cop. 25%

dont have any town power roles at all.

The power role is great for us to have, but believe me, we can win without them. Also, just in case it slipped by you, yes, right off the bat there was only a 50% chance

at best

that BGM was cop. Throw in the fact that he could have been scum with a false claim and we had only a 25% chance of him actually being the cop.
That is exactly where I got the 25% chance of him being town that I stated earlier. I wasn't snatching that number out of the air. Yagami's 90% was certainly more of a gut feeling based upon his actions, yet the disparity between the 2 as far as likely townhood goes was a chasm. I would do the same again in the same situation.

Also, please, giving Mert credit for his unvote less than 2 hours after BGM claimed is a bit generous. Had I logged on, I would have unvoted

at the time

to give a chance to assess the situation before a quicklynch. But also as I said, I would have moved my vote back again after Yagami's move came out.
But in addition, let's also take a look at why Mert might have unvoted. If he were scum, and his partner is V-RK as fits according to my suspicion list, why would he have unvoted there if he is scum? The answer is because his scum buddy was already on the wagon. He couldn't depend upon scum to finish the lynch. Therefore the next best thing is to hop off the wagon (the first person on it given the opportunity to do so after the claim), then turn and FOS everyone else who was on it. Your scum buddy is there in a fairly safe #1 position on the vote, but still there for some distancing.

Personally OF, I thought your scenario sounded better. However another minor detail. If we trust your scenario, you would have to explain why I didn't simply unvote and hope either someone else would vote BGM, or just relax and let whichever townie happened to get lynched fall on Day 1, and then nightkill the claimed cop afterwards? I was in little fear of investigation at the time from BGM, it was obvious he and Mert were tussling and we could be fairly confident in assuming Mert would have been the investigation last night. So without even a fear of an investigation, no reason to get crazy and hammer because town was going to die either way, and only a 50% chance of a Doc showing up, what would motivate me to act as I did as scum?

[Ectomancer]

But in addition, let's also take a look at why Mert might have unvoted. If he were scum, and his partner is V-RK as fits according to my suspicion list, why would he have unvoted there if he is scum? The answer is because his scum buddy was already on the wagon. He couldn't depend upon scum to finish the lynch. Therefore the next best thing is to hop off the wagon (the first person on it given the opportunity to do so after the claim), then turn and FOS everyone else who was on it. Your scum buddy is there in a fairly safe #1 position on the vote, but still there for some distancing.

I don't disagree that the above is a plausible scenario. However, if true, that would mean that both scum would have placed the first two votes on BGM. I find THAT pretty unlikely, because if the lynch had gone through without all that roleclaim drama, they woud have been looked at strongly for starting the bandwagon against a townie.

[/quote]

Actually, if you read through some games, you will find that to be incorrect. After a townie is lynched, the suspicion nearly always focuses on the L - 1 vote and the hammer, not the person who started the case.

Personally OF, I thought your scenario sounded better. However another minor detail. If we trust your scenario, you would have to explain why I didn't simply unvote and hope either someone else would vote BGM, or just relax and let whichever townie happened to get lynched fall on Day 1, and then nightkill the claimed cop afterwards? I was in little fear of investigation at the time from BGM, it was obvious he and Mert were tussling and we could be fairly confident in assuming Mert would have been the investigation last night. So without even a fear of an investigation, no reason to get crazy and hammer because town was going to die either way, and only a 50% chance of a Doc showing up, what would motivate me to act as I did as scum?

Well, it's a good question, and one that I touched upon in my "scum scenario" about you. In more detail: you switched from BGM to Yagami because with the roleclaim and Mert's unvote, you wanted to make sure some townie didn't try to start a wagon on you or your partner in lieu of BGM. Mert was on record with having you on the top of his suspicion list (and there is a history of people following his votes), so you needed to get out in front of that. The flimsiness of your evidence against Yagami indicates that you were reaching to get something going quickly. So, then as we got to the end, you made the last minute switch to guarantee the supposed cop died. As you said, there was a 50% chance of the doc showing up. Odds would be pretty good that he might try to protect the claimed cop, so why take that chance when you could make sure he died? And while YOU might not have feared an investigation, there's also your scumbuddy to be concerned about, and also even if BGM investigated a townie, that information would help the town (assuming he could convince us to believe him). All in all, much safer to make sure the supposed cop died and guarantee no investigation.

How's that explanation work for you? Ready to confess now?

[/quote]

You are missing another point from that last analysis. We all know Mert has been and still is going after me. So let's ask a couple questions. If I am scum, why is Mert still alive? Why is Yagami dead? Certainly Yagami would feel somewhat positively towards me after I yanked his neck from the noose. You can bet that I would have used him and that small sense of indebtedness to scum's advantage. Why would I have NK'd the townie most likely to view me favorably?
Next question to be asked is why am I alive? To me it is obvious. I hammered the cop. I'm the best townie to keep alive because I am the most likely, and easiest to lynch. Yagami is dead because he was the closest we had to a confirmed townie (IMO).
Why is IT alive? I wonder. The person who has sided with Mert nearly the entire game. Go figure. You think that as scum I would not have killed either Mert or his echo?
Why is V-RK alive? Scum dont NK themselves.
Why is Mert alive? ditto
Why is OF alive? Mainly because killing off the person most likely to side with me (Yagami) was more important. In addition, you've made open, well reasoned posts and appear to have little bias towards anyone in the game one way or another.

Last nights events are

just

as important as the end of the day yesterday. To me it is more important beause it is more telling than lynching someone for being scummy. I would look for yourself and ask the questions I did about who is alive and who is dead and see what you come up with.

[Ectomancer]

You keep dodging my point about keeping him alive into Day Two as well... if he was the cop then there is no way the scum could risk leaving him alive - with such a small number of players the presence of a cop can truly help the town win, even if they "only" get an innocent and then die Night Two. Had he died, we'd still know his alignment, which is useful information. Had there been no nightkill then we either have a doctor or very clever scum. Had he remained alive then there is a high possibility that he was scum. Seriously, there was nothing to be gained by hammering him yesterday other than to provide this town with less information that it could have had otherwise, whether he had lived or died.

Vote: Ectomancer

. I am aware of this being LyLo.

You are absolutely wrong here and are using WIFOM to do it. A scummy cop like BGM would be no problem for scum to keep alive. The reason being just as you stated. It would be a high possibility of him being scum if he lived through last night and someone else died. It is LYLO today, so we would have no chance of testing him, period. We could not trust

any

investigation whatsoever coming from him. If he says someone is guilty, he could be scum pointing out a townie. If he says someone is innocent, he could be calling his scum partner innocent. However, if he is town, then he is telling the truth.
In that scenario, if we think he is scum, we lynch him. Guess what, because he turned up cop we would have lost. However if we think he is town, we lynch his guilty investigation target. Only if he is town

and we think he is town

and gets an innocent do we get something, but

not a single player

has expressed that they believed BGM was town, so the only scenario in which we would come out ahead by letting BGM live was one that would not come to pass because of his previous scummy play.

I kept us out of that hateful position.

If you feel like I am coming up with this after the fact, spare the thought. I've had a very recent encounter with just this scenario in Newbie 340 when Blahgo claimed Cop on Day 1. The only reason it worked out for town was because we lynched scum on Day 1 and thereby was able to trust any innocent investigations that came up. If BGM were sitting here today, we could believe nothing about his investigation for reasons I already explained. However, on the other hand, if BGM were sitting here, who honestly would lynch him? I would. And we would lose.

Take the time and work out all the intricacies involved in that scenario. Contrary to how it is being portrayed, I made the best pro-town move available to us. Think about the situation I described above, then the one we are in now. This one, I feel, is far superior to a coin flip over BGM's alignment.

[Ectomancer]

I thought I was clear on that Mert. Absolutely

none

of the possibilities you listed make any difference whatsoever. Regardless of who died, who he said was guilty/innocent (I already explained why that gives no information at all), or anything he could have said, the bottom line is our decision would come down to one WIFOM. Here sits BGM. Is he town or scum? Guess wrong and we die. I preferred the opportunity to guess

and not die

and I took it. That is a pro-town move.

I'm glad you share my faith that we dont need power roles to win this yet.

[Ectomancer]

Incidentally, the fact that your entire case in 310 seems to be "if I was scum then I wouldn't let Mert or IT live. Since they're alive I can't be scum" and other variations on that theme hasn't gone unnoticed.

Please don't straw man the argument. If you are going to take a piece of my entire assessment of the night results and address it, address the entire assessment.
For those who haven't read the wiki on logical fallacies, here is the straw man ploy:

A "Straw man" argument (also called "setting up a straw man") involves mischracterizing your opponent's position in order to present a weaker argument than they have actually given, thereby allowing you to defeat it. It usually involves subtle changes to the given facts of the matter, or minor changes to wording that lead to semantic differences in what is said.

Also, "Strawmanning"

involves taking a small piece of the case

someone has built up that is weaker than their other points and blowing it up. They can then defeat the weaker point and use that as 'proof' that everything that person has said is wrong.

Stated as it was, you both mischaracterized the post and only addressed the part specifically about you.
First of all, post 310 obviously was not the case as you characterized it, it was a reply to OnFire's questioning of the case, which actually began on post 306 and is about far more than Mert and IT being alive today. It did add to the overall case, but certainly wasn't the entire point I've been making. I realize that you said "your case in 310", which is exactly what straw manning is about. You are trying to single out a section that you feel you can tackle.

[Ectomancer]

Ok, it took me a few minutes to figure out what was going on, because your post looked pretty good. Then I realized what it was. You were taking

my

stated opinions and situations and claiming them for yourself when it is very obvious that you never held those positions. A quick re-read exposed the ruse fairly quickly.

Let's go back and look.

Given my views on BGM's claim, I support an Ecto or YagamiLight lynch today. Either is more beneficial than not lynching, in my opinion. Due to differences in time zone, I may not be able to get on again before the deadline tomorrow (though I am around for the rest of tonight) so I'm going to

Vote: YagamiLight

right now. If I

am

able to get back on then I will do so, but I can't make any promises

Here we have Mert voting for Yagami. No real problem here, except you notice that he never gives a reason for voting Yagami. In fact, the next quote reveals a little more:

I view Ecto and Yami as relatively even on my LoS (even if I suspect Ecto slightly more) and so I picked one.

So no reasons given again, but confirms the vote on Yagami even though he suspects me slightly more? Dubbya Tee Eff mate? If you are town you

always

vote the guy you suspect the most! This goes back to my point that I was left alive last night because Mert felt his case on me good enough to hold on to me until later, while he got the tougher lynch done with the help of the deadline to snuff further discussion.

Ok, so all of that was prior to the last part of day 1, so that doesnt mean that he couldnt change his mind after Yagami's play, but does he? Or more to the point,

when

does he?

Not after it happened.

FoS: Ectomancer

Lesser-FoS: {V-RK, OnFire}

Right now I'm definitely leaning toward Ecto being scum. I don't see why any protown player wouldn't have at least entertained the idea of letting the claimed cop live one night to see what information this could yield. The fact that he was third on the wagon disturbs me greatly.

Rather than realizing that our choice yesterday was actually a lose/lose situation, and I chose the person most likely to be town to survive, he attacks us for voting the scummy cop. Hindsight is great, but guess what, the choices we made were before we knew BGM's alignment. Using my hindsight now, I realize that as scum Mert knew of course that BGM was town and didnt want to be seen on that wagon when the lynch went down.

Now my case enters the picture, and if you will remember comments like this from me:

Yagami is dead because he was the closest we had to a confirmed townie (IMO).

Now that it is convenient for him to use, Mert begins parroting that position to discount my case.

Yagami more or less confirmed himself with his last-minute unvote and claim yesterday and confirmed innocents are far worse for the scum than players attacking them.

Because keeping people alive who

everyone

believes to be protown reduces the pool of people the rest of the town are likely to consider, making it, at least statistically, more likely they'll hit scum.

Whoa, wait a second! Weren't we just being attacked because we voted BGM over Yagami? If he was more or less confirmed, why on earth would you prefer to lynch him over the guy who everyone believed to be scum?
Look, you cant just flip flop your position on this just because it suits this particular argument for you. Either Yagami was more or less confirmed or he wasnt. If he was, then your attack on us the following day was nothing but opportunistic. If he wasn't, then you are parroting my view in order to make this particular argument fall in your favor. You cant have it both ways. Remember what I said about lynching the person you suspect the most? This is the 2nd example of Mert advocating keeping the person he says he viewed with more suspicion. Certainly not a town position.

The only person to go after instead of Yagami last night would be somebody breadcrubming doc, but since the cop was dead the doctor plays a less powerful role going forward anyway (unless they live to the last three or something).

This last part is an example of outright misinformation. Regardless of the Cop being dead, the further we get into a game, the

more

valuable a Doc becomes, not less. The Doc is the only person at night who can prevent a LYLO the following day by protecting town. In other words, had a Doc targeted Yagami last night, we would

not

be at LYLO today. If we get scum today, and there is a Doc who protects correctly tonight, we are out of LYLO tomorrow. The last statement is utterly ridiculous. You say that they would be more powerful if they live to be the last 3? How on earth would that make him more powerful? Actually his power is

gone

because there wont be another night!

Yes, I'm also aware of the LYLO, but I think for deliberately misleading town in addition to the points in my case (I admit, I harbored some doubt about your guilt, Im rarely 100% without a game mechanic like an investigation to rely upon):

vote Mert

[Ectomancer]

Vote: Ectomancer. I am aware of this being LyLo.

vote Mert

(Bolding removed to avoid confusion)

Can I just say how funny I think it would be if both Mert and Ecto turn out to be scum and were sacrificing one so the other would be trusted on Day Three and easily guide the town to lose? 8)

Now I'm going to go back to banging my head against the table...

It would be even worse if we were both town....

[Ectomancer]

Well I've made my thoughts about IT known for the entire game, and he didnt do anything that made me change my mind from believing him to be town. Being as aligned with Mert as he has been this game just makes me think that he makes a perfect town patsy to get the 3 votes together for the 2 scum. If there is a case against IT, I'll read it with an open mind, but I haven't seen one myself.

[Ectomancer]

I was referring to the same thing Mert was in his post, and that we discussed earlier as a town about how closely Mert and IT's actions have paralleled one another.
Now if you mean about a perfect town patsy, I was referring to the scum dilemma with 2 scum and 5 players. They need to convince 1 town member to vote with them in order to win. If Mert is scum, IT would be the obvious mark for him to try to sway. Meaning that even if Mert were scum, I wouldnt necessarily believe IT to be scum as well because I've cultivated pro feelings towards me from a townie as scum before just for this very reason. To have that deciding vote leaning towards my side even before we get near that vote.

[Ectomancer]

His top three were BrazeGoesMoo (cop),

Diamondfalcon

YagamiLight (townie) and

Vel-Rahn Koon

.

When did V-RK become confirmed

anything

?

FoS: OnFire

Say what?

[Ectomancer]

Still waiting on Venona. Please dont force the mod to deadline. We're much less likely to make a good decision under that pressure.

[Ectomancer]

Anyway, in the mean time I was able to do my reading and I have a very strong feeling that he is town. The fact that he did not vote for BGM in that first wagon nurtured my belief in his innocence. My vote goes to Ectomancer, who jumped from wagon to wagon - at anyone, ultimately getting our cop killed.

Vote Ectomancer

Mmm yeah. When I said a deadline was bad because of rushing decisions, this is the kind of response I was afraid of. You posted so quickly you had to edit it because part of it made no sense. The comments included with the vote shows you did nothing more than skim, which I can understand you have RL going on, but seriously, I wish you would not have voted until you actually read the discussion and arguments.
I would have been happy with another "Im here and Im going to keep looking but for now FOS Ectomancer until I can read more".

[Ectomancer]

Been alot going on over here. My daughter's promotion from primary school had us out for a huge picnic on Sunday, plus a ceremony today. Had some other things on site I needed to take care of as well. I'll be back in the next day or so to give a rundown of V-RK.

[Ectomancer]

I started re-reading V-RK last night, but found myself slanting my read towards the theory I already have. There were a few things I could have pointed out to bolster my case, but I decided I'm not helping any by doing that. I'm going to go back for a fresh read later without any pre-conceptions interfering with the analysis. Hope to have it in a couple days.

[Ectomancer]

I believe we both have said our piece Mert. My only remaining in depth review was V-RK, and as I said, what I found were links back to Mert (assuming that Mert and V-RK are scumbuddies). Taken alone though, there isnt much "real" evidence without that presumption. Here's my rundown again for you.

Mert - Most likely Scum - I detailed the reasons.
OnFire - If OF is scum, I believe town has lost the game.
IT/Venona - IT put himself into the town category with me early and never left. Venona was impatient and nearly tossed the game with that quick vote, but that can be chalked up to school. It doesnt overpower the town vibe I had from IT.
V-RK - Flying under the radar is my impression of V-RK. Never taking risks, saying just enough to be active. As I said, I found things to tie him back to Mert, but I see little reason to list them. You can take anything and fit it after the fact to your theories. Moby Dick can be interpreted using code to predict the deaths of John F Kennedy and Martin Luther King. So Im not putting great stock in the links, but given his unmistakable playstyle this game, along with my reasoning on OF and IT/Venona, V-RK is more likely to be scum than town. If Mert is town, that would still leave V-RK in the top 2 scum suspects with IT/Venona being the far distant 2nd. Unfortunately, we dont have the luxury of being able to test Mert. That being said, Mert is still my #1 suspect and is my vote today.

[Ectomancer]

I find it absolutely fascinating that the two IC's who are prominently voting for and promoting the other as scum both pick V-R K as the most likely second scum (if somewhat tentatively). In fact, their suspicion lists line up pretty much exactly. What do you two have to say about that?

To my mind, the most likely scenario is that Ecto and V-RK are scumbuddies and he's attempting to distance himself by placing V-RK as his second choice.

I am not scum, so it is certainly not good for either one of us to go. Killing me is a loss.

I have a suggestion that will probably do absolutely nothing for OnFire's suspicion of a Mert/Ecto scumpair, but I'm going to propose it all the same - since the one thing we all seem to be able to agree on is that V-RK is scummy, why don't we make him the play for today and we can re-evaluate Ecto and I tomorrow?

Thoughts?

@OF - That's a strong gamble on your part. I can't argue about the chain of events other than to say Im not scum.

@ Mert - Heh, well for one thing, if we are wrong and V-RK is town, we lose. I think I already pointed out that we cant test any theory. We're at LYLO remember? The only thing we can do is commit and hope we are right. If we are wrong, there will be no tomorrow for us to re-evaluate the two of us. So how can you say with certainty like you did that we will have a tomorrow? My theory on V-RK is basically a process of elimination, so it can be flawed. I thought yours was the same, so where did you get this degree of certainty?
My guess is one of three things, either V-RK is town and you know it, so game over, or V-RK is your scum buddy and you are willing to bus him because you feel you can win a vote against me after my risk taking in the early game. The third would be you are town and we are fools and the scum are chuckling into their sleeves.

[Ectomancer]

I didn't miss that one because the only way you could be certain is to be the Cop or scum and the cop is dead.

If we are forced into a deadline, you may have a point. It's a variation on the axiom "lynch your most suspicious" to be "lynch who the majority feel to be likely scum". However that assumes that Venona believes V-RK to be scummy. I believe that OF had posted that he found IT/V to be more suspicious than V-RK however, so unless Venona agrees with us, we still have a hung jury. Also, as I said, if we are wrong, we lose. In fact, if Venona were to say "Sure, sounds like a good idea", it would probably make me

not

want to vote V-RK. I can understand why OF feels that we could be partners and might be reluctant to vote anyone other than one of us when you consider the alternative.
At this point, I think the only thing we can do is allow the other 3 to decide. Obviously if V-RK got 2 votes from them, one of us would need to lend our vote to make it happen. If they choose one of us, it will only take 2 of them because our votes are already on each other.
Personally, I think that OF should cast the last vote. Of those 3, V-RK and Venona are the 2 likeliest scum. I'd prefer the deciding vote to be in the hand of the likeliest town.

[Ectomancer]

In case my wall of text wasn't clear, Venona, V-RK, and OnFire, the ball is in your court. Please don't wait until a deadline is set to try and make a decision. At least talk it out amongst yourselves and keep the Mod off our backs.

[Ectomancer]

6 of the last 15 posts have been made by me, I would hardly call that hands off. It's time some of the other players in the game started playing.

[Ectomancer]

V-RK, glad your back, hope you stick around. I really dont wish to see another replacement in this game, partly because it is the sole remaining game I am in that I feel is still adversely affected by the data loss.

As for the V-RK post, looks like a wishy-washy scum post to me. Either Mert or Ecto is good with him, he emphasizes that he would be happier with voting Mert first (work that distancing man!). Nice safe post for him. If I get lynched, he wins, if Mert gets lynched, he looks good for lynching scum.

This needs to be said, despite my feelings, because that is all I have and I prefer to work on logic. Im rather uncomfortable with the controlling role that OnFire has assumed here (that we allowed him to assume). I dont believe I've ever seen a group of people allow that to happen from someone

who isnt legitimately confirmed

. Trust me, I realize that I helped create that situation, but it still, it feels like the 800lb elephant in the room that at this point, no one is talking about. I'm not trying to distract us from the current path we are trying to work out here, but it defintely needed to be said.

[Ectomancer]

Come on, he didnt detail a position shift, he parroted what I had to say to Mert. His only addition to it was his WIFOM <paraphrase> "If Im so suspicious, why arent I dead yet?" You find his argument against Mert fairly compelling? I find that it is

my

argument that you find compelling, only not until it is coming from someone else

[Ectomancer]

My feathers are no longer ruffled

[Ectomancer]

*ruffles at Venona*

[Ectomancer]

I dont deny that I helped to create the situation, but requesting that OF cast the final vote does

not

mean that I requested OF to control the conversation.
Unfortunately, and no blame to you, but your lack of access to the site, combined with Venona's absence has led by default to OF being in control of things. With you being back, and if we can get Venona to post, it will naturally shift back to where you 3 are involved in the discussion equally.
Mert and I have not been arguing, we both feel we have cases against each other and have spent time laying them out. We just got the point where we hashed and rehashed about all we can without something from you guys.

Your final line just boggles me. Your gallows comment was cast away. Whether everyone believed you to be scum or not had nothing to do with you being alive. We're at LYLO and even if everyone

did

think you were probably scum, we would still talk it out to be sure we are doing the right thing. So, I dont get how I backed Mert up. I just pointed out how

you

used my

my

argument against Mert to attack him, so where did this comment come from?

[Ectomancer]

Can I also point out how ridiculous it is to accuse Ecto and I of being scumbuddies? What would we really stand to gain in LyLo by attacking each other so vehemently, knowing that a lynch of anyone is acceptable. If I were scum I'd be aiming to lynch someone else as everyone is unconfirmed and there'd be three targets to focus on.

Whatever you think of either me or Ecto, I'd have thought it would be clear that one of us being scum pretty much precludes the other from being otherwise we'd just be playing deliberately sub-optimally just to artificially extend how long the game needed to be.

Nice attempt at getting us both lynched by throwing up a weak argument against the possibility of us being a scum pair. We would attack each other so vehemently in order to make it clear that one of us being scum would clear the other one, just as you said in your second paragraph, obviously. They lynch one of us, but not the other, scum wins.

[Ectomancer]

Why would it be a terrible play? I don't know about you, but I've certainly shown myself to be a risk taker. How hard would it be for them to believe that I convinced you to go for a risky play? "Cmon Mert! They would be so convinced that scum would never make that play that there is no way they will lynch both of us!"

In a Newbie game, there really is no need for scum to bus their partner in a LyLo Day Two if their partner isn't, for whatever reason, pretty much the town's #1 suspect already.

My feeling was that I was the #1 suspect when the day began for obvious reasons. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. So it looks to me that we would be in that exact situation that you go on to say might make sense.

So you first make a weak excuse that is easily attacked, and now you left a bread crumb trail to the realization that we are actually in the one situation where it would make sense for us to be scum bussing each other.

Obviously (to me of course) lynching me first would lead to a town loss, but seriously, do not lynch us both if we decide to lynch Mert first. He still accomplishes his goal. Go back and see if you see what I do. His clumsiness is just evidence to me that he

wants

us both to be lynched.

[Ectomancer]

I dont think Venona is coming back.

Mod

Can we get a prod please? Another replacement would stink, but we may be left with no choice.

[Ectomancer]

Venona picked up her prod.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Vote Count

:

Mert

(1):

Ectomancer

Vel-Rahn Koon

(1):

Mert

not voting

(3):

OnFire, Vel-Rahn Koon, Venona

Still need three.

Yay?

Words like violence, break the silence
Come crashing in, into my little world.

[Ectomancer]

I dont know that you noticed, but this "Mert and Ecto are scum" idea has legs because you keep making these weak defenses against it. It's not that hard to fathom how people can believe it, and the chances of someone trying it arent as small as you are trying to make it out to be. Had you just acknowledged the possibility, we could have moved along. As I pointed out, this just felt like intentional clumsiness to me.

As for your bolded question, I spent pages already detailing my thoughts on you. I do hope your request was for the other 3 players (hi Venona!) to detail their thoughts on you.

[Ectomancer]

Good deal. Thanks for stepping in Mr. Flay

[Ectomancer]

All good points OnFire, but it still sucks. I am not Mert's scum partner, and I've been trying to warn against this setup. It doesn't matter for Mert if he dies today so long as I go down tomorrow too.

[Ectomancer]

Sure, let me take a couple days to swim back through this for proper quotes and such.

[Ectomancer]

Howdy all, I'll still be coming along with my VRK/Mert pair case for review. For those not in the States, we just had our 4th of July celebration and I've basically had time to just pop in and out. Luckily we've had tons of rain in Texas the last few weeks, so nothing burned down this year

[Ectomancer]

Wow, I came back expecting to be pressured for my VRK/Mert scum pair analysis. I guess you can see why it was taking so long
I'm a bit surprised at the result to be honest. I really didn't see how I was

not

being lynched. Luckily for me, Mert somehow managed to tie he and I together in the minds of the town. Up until that point, my strategy was to see how scummy I could be, and still not get lynched. Killing the Cop, I was willing to die for, but it was fun trying to convince the town that

I did them a favor

by killing the Cop and avoiding the WIFOM situation with whether we believed his claim or not.

OnFire - I think you did a fantastic job. You analyzed very well, you were patient and it was an enjoyable game with you in it. I'm sorry you lost, but I think you have a great mafia career ahead of you

GG V-RK! Glad you logged on before Flay. That might have spelled our doom.

[Ectomancer]

Much good that it does you at this point, your assessment of my actions at the end of day 1 were exactly correct. It was my job to convince you otherwise Like I said, you did a great job in the game. I'm not sure what you could have changed, except to trust in your own assessments more.

[Ectomancer]

I almost forgot to say, thank you for the compliment Mert, our styles are similiar, so it is interesting getting into discussion with you.
Thanks also Flay. Hmm, I hadn't decided. Most likely you would have died. You popped in, dropped some material I could use (ie saying "Im almost ready to vote Mert"). If I could snuff you at that point, you're dead. It would depend then on whether or not you got in a "If V-RK is scum then Ecto is scum". If you did, then OF would probably die and we enter the next day with WIFOM over whether I would have let you live or not. However, I would also argue the opposite if you died. "Of course scum would kill the guy that said I was guilty to make me look bad."
Hrmm, I'm betting you would die anyhow. You had already stated that I was the bolder player, and could extrapolate from that I wouldnt be afraid to leave you alive, so that fact might actually work against me if you already believed myself and V-RK to be the more likely scum pair.

[Ectomancer]

Hey Diamond, sorry you had to be replaced, it was a good game. I enjoyed the time you were able to spend on it. Hope your exams went well