Newbie 250: Scum win in overtime!

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Post Post #3 (isolation #0) » Sat Jul 01, 2006 12:59 pm

Post by Ogianres »

VOTE: Be
for having the shortest name. Clearly a scum tell.
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Post Post #14 (isolation #1) » Tue Jul 04, 2006 7:03 am

Post by Ogianres »

UNVOTE

VOTE: Red Baron


Come on and join the fun! If not you'll probably get booted for inactiveness.
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Post Post #16 (isolation #2) » Tue Jul 04, 2006 3:46 pm

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I highly doubt that.
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Post Post #23 (isolation #3) » Wed Jul 05, 2006 11:56 am

Post by Ogianres »

Thesp wrote:
Ogianres wrote:I highly doubt that.
Really. You've pegged two as town?
No it's just that I don't understand your line of reasoning. I don't have any reason to suspect any of them one way or the other yet. Could you explain how you came to your conclusion?
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Post Post #28 (isolation #4) » Wed Jul 05, 2006 3:05 pm

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Thesp wrote:
Ogianres wrote:No it's just that I don't understand your line of reasoning. I don't have any reason to suspect any of them one way or the other yet. Could you explain how you came to your conclusion?
That's funny, what you said before seems to say you explicitly don't think it's a good idea, rather than you're ambivalent towards it.
I don't think it's a good idea since we have, like I said before, almost no concrete evidence to base accusations on. And since I'm not sure whether or not my vote carries over
UNVOTE
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Post Post #45 (isolation #5) » Sat Jul 08, 2006 11:48 am

Post by Ogianres »

Thesp, I don't understand what you are doing. If you are just trying to get conversation and responses going then well done. If not, then why do the three people you suspect manage to be the people you suspect? What did they do to tip you off to them being scum?
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Post Post #54 (isolation #6) » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:16 am

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Actually, I don't believe the first lynch should be random. True that the first page is generally random voting, it doesn't have to lead to a evidence-absent lynch.
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Post Post #61 (isolation #7) » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:48 am

Post by Ogianres »

Leptokurt wrote:My reason is to vote for players who are defensive against a random vote. So my vote remains on you, Ogianres.
When was I defensive against a random vote? I was talking about how spectrumvoid said that most first-day lynches are random.
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Post Post #63 (isolation #8) » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:59 am

Post by Ogianres »

The first lynch in the game doesn't ever need to be random. If you hit a townie (which there is about a 72% chance of happening if it is completely random), we don't just lose that townie, we lose two if the doctor doesn't manage to protect the right person during the night. If that happens then mafia will make up 40% of the people left the next day, which I don't want to happen. Then, assuming that we lose two townies, we are forced to the point where we absolutley have to lynch a mafiate or we lose. A random lynch just leads to a wasted day and cripples the town.
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Post Post #80 (isolation #9) » Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:35 am

Post by Ogianres »

I want to hear from PBuG and PZ before I cast my vote.
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Post Post #94 (isolation #10) » Sun Jul 16, 2006 6:31 am

Post by Ogianres »

As much as I feel that there is a lack of solid evidence this game is getting very slow right now and I'm suprised we haven't gotten a deadline already.
VOTE: PZ
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Post Post #100 (isolation #11) » Mon Jul 17, 2006 7:02 pm

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I somewhat understand your plan Thesp but it would help if you were to elaborate on the details.
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Post Post #104 (isolation #12) » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:47 am

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Not cop.
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Post Post #107 (isolation #13) » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:32 pm

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spectrumvoid wrote:Not cop. Why not claim investigations? That way we'll know who's guilty.
Because then it gives a good target for the mafia if the cop is being protected by the doc.
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Post Post #142 (isolation #14) » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:49 pm

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Yes I've been prodded. It's not that I have been gone, but that I've been lurking.

Well, on to what I think about PBuG.
... Uh, crap. How do I link directly to individual posts? I wanna do a post-by-post analysis but I don't want to clutter up the screen with wuotes.
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Post Post #145 (isolation #15) » Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:23 pm

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Nothing happens when I click on the quote button. If I can't link by about 6:00 tomorrow I'm just gonna quote each post.
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Post Post #147 (isolation #16) » Tue Jul 25, 2006 11:07 pm

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Leptokurt wrote:OG, then just handle the "Quote"-buttom like the "Bold"-buttom.
Click it once, then copy the quote-text, then click it again.

You can see with the preview-toggle, if it works.
I understand, but none ofthe buttons are working. I'm just gonna have to quote each individual post. *sigh* Give me a few minutes.
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Post Post #148 (isolation #17) » Tue Jul 25, 2006 11:32 pm

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PBuG wrote:Vote: Thesp You know why
Random vote AKA nothing.
PBuG wrote:GASP! How could you! I don't deserve that... Okay, well, I do. Whatev.
Random crap
PBuG wrote:Be, it isn't a good idea to give someone multiple votes too quickly, because you could either bandwagon someone so quickly that they're lynched without defending themselves, or they're pounced upon by the mafia. *avoids glares from the now unvoted Thesp*
Stating a bit of logic
PBuG wrote:It's a random vote. Random votes often have random reasoning.
*yawn* nothing
PBuG wrote:I'm really not understanding your logic here, Thesp. You have three people pegged as scum on the first page?

I'm liking Penguin Zero's (mind if I call you PeZ?) logic, but the last time I blindly followed logic, I lynched a cop, so I think I'll hold off on a vote...
Doesn't understand Thesp's logic with his "these three are most likely scum". And to be honest neither do I.
PBuG wrote:Ogianres is a newb.
Answering Spectrumvoid's question. Yes this is only my third game on a qualified site.
PBuG wrote:I don't see anything that important to comment on. I see Thesp spewing crap and people responding to it, and I don't know who to vote, but I've decided to vote: Be based on certain reactions.
Says Thesp's logic is crap and votes for Be with little evidence.
PBuG wrote:Not cop.
That claiming thing we went through a couple of pages ago.
PBuG wrote:I don't think the doc should claim unless pressured because we might need him/her.
Neither do I.
PBuG wrote: I don't know why you see me as mafia other than my absence. I do like your logic, though. I suspect Thesp, but I'm not sure, because last time I played with him I was sure he was scum and he wasn't but then again, he played that game much differently...

Hmm. After thinking about it, I might vote Thesp...
Would vote for Thesp but seems to be a bit indecisive about him. Kind of understandable.
PBuG wrote:Thesp, you played it differently in the way that on the first day, you weren't really on my radar and on the second day, you argued till the end of the game that I had to be scum because of this this and this and eventually decided you had everyone so convinced I was scum that I couldn't survive the day and voted myself. THIS game, You came out on Day 1 on the first page saying two of three certain people were definitely scum, and since then you've suspected just about every player in the game. Post 128 is more like how you played that game. I don't believe you're suspicions very much because of how wrong you were in 244 when you had an excellent argument against me.

And, Thesp, if you've ever looked at a game I've played as scum, the only time I've ever used the distancing tactic was SSBM Mafia in which I forgot I was Mafia and lynched my godfather. Since then, I've made sure to know whether or not I'm mafia.

If you lynch me, the game will not continue unless the doc protects correctly. I will tell you that. Be very careful about who you lynch, because if the doc protects incorrectly (and they probably will), the game is lost, and if they don't we're in LyLo (Lynch Or Lose, when if you don't lynch mafia you lose).
Starts with an observation on Thesp's playing style in this and past games (a suitable tacic I believe). Then moves on to the next paragraph about saying he never distances himself from the other mafia. Then he does a fairly gratuitous bit of talking which boils down to a slightly-covered townie claim.
PBuG wrote:No, it's that I have to try that hard because you think that I have to be scum. Not unlike Newbie 244. Hey, whaddya know, I was town.
Seems a bit emotional and unnecessary, but I've seen all alignments act that way.
PBuG wrote:I, personally, referred back to that game because Thesp was attacking me for the entire second day, sure of me being scum, and I turned out to be town. I was sure of him being scum because of him attacking me. My point was, don't immediately trust Thesp because the argument might be great but you might not be looking at the right person.
The scummiest looking post yet. He keeps referring back to the same game, which may or may not be a tactic to discredit Thesp .Then his last sentence just doesn't sit right with me.

Honestly, except for the last couple of posts I don't see him to be particularly scummy. I'm either not looking at his posts hard enough or everyone else who thinks he is scummy is looking too hard.
Difficult to determine would be the best summary of my thoughts on PBuG.
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Post Post #157 (isolation #18) » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:28 am

Post by Ogianres »

Thesp wrote:Vote: spectrumvoid to watch him explode!
Random voting.
Thesp wrote:Yes, so you vote early while there are no votes on and don't quicklynch someone D1.
Logic behind random stage.
Thesp wrote:If we lynch Be, specrumvoid, and Red Baron, we will win. I don't know which one is pro-town, but the other two are scum.
His odd plan where we trust that two of these three people are scum. Red Baron (AKA PZ) was lynched and turned out to be townie, and Thesp later says that he doesn't find spectrumvoid scummy.
Thesp wrote:Really. You've pegged two as town?
In response to my post in which I expressed doubt in his plan.
Thesp wrote:It was at the time, but we're past the random vote stage now.
About a random vote.
Thesp wrote:That's funny, what you said before seems to say you explicitly don't think it's a good idea, rather than you're ambivalent towards it.
I didn't think that plan was good idea, and I was ambivalent about the alignments of the threee people in question.
Thesp wrote:Does sticking out the most = scum?
Actually, I sometimes work backwards, especially in smaller games - try to pick people I think are townies, and go for the others (as was the case here). But right now, I think our leader ought to be...

Unvote: spectrumvoid. Vote: Penguin Zero. FOS: Ogianres.

I'm revoking my belief that Ogianres is town. I think spectrumvoid, PBuG, and Leptokurt are most likely to be town. I'm happy with a bandwagon on anyone else, but happiest with Penguin Zero, whom I most strongly suspect is scum.
I now understand his reasoning behind pegging those three people as most likely scum. But that does not make it any more valid.
Votes for PZ who turned out to be townie.
Believes I am scummy, believes Leptokurt sv and PBuG are town, and is content with voting for PZ who is townie.
Thesp wrote:Unofficial count:

Penguin Zero (1): Thesp
Thesp (2): Be, Leptokurt
spectrumvoid (1): Penguin Zero
Be (1): spectrumvoid

not voting (2): PBuG, Ogianres
Unofficial vote count.
Thesp wrote:What's wrong with suspicion? Aren't 2 people here mafia?
I don't find anything wrong with being suspicious of people, but I'm not certain about putting suspicion on other people.
Thesp wrote:Well, to be precise, suspicious people are more likely to be mafia, if your suspicions are well placed. And I guess my question would have been better phrased as, "What's wrong with having suspicions?"
stating some logic which I find quite valid.
Thesp wrote:I thought I did give some reason here.

I can go into detail if you like, but I'm not sure what level of reasoning you're demanding. Simply because I haven't shared the full extent of my reasons doesn't mean I don't have any, correct?

That puts me at three by the way. I suspect I'm getting more votes than others because I'm talking more than others. Hooray lurkers!
I would have at the time liked to hear more reasoning.
Is nearly lynched and says he thinks it's because he is active. Then some sarcasm, which I don't particularly like in this game.
Thesp wrote:That's the thing: it's more that the other three have done things I think that makes them more likely to be townie. It's Penguin Zero's wishy-washiness that has me disturbed, though, it looks like he's trying to play both sides of the fence, and he's announcing how his vote is essentially meaningless, so he can "be active and vote" and at the same time not be accountable for his vote. That's why my vote is on Penguin Zero in particular.
At the time I didn't understand his reasoning but I do now. Still does not make it valid.
Thesp wrote:I'm not trying to get an immediate lynch, what I'm trying to do is get substantive conversation going, so we move past the random vote stage. Has that happened?
Yes.
Thesp wrote:What are you realistically expecting, as far as evidence goes?
If you want to lynch somebody you should have some evidence.
Thesp wrote:Now, I don't really find Leptokurt or Ogianres that suspicious. I don't think spectrumvoid is scum either, which leaves PBuG, Penguin Zero, and Be. I am disturbed by PBuG's lurking while two people whom are most likely townies go after each other, as well as his silence on Penguin Zero (whom I firmly believe to be scum, while PBuG acts dismissive of me, the most vocal opponent of Penguin Zero), but I'm more concerned with Be. I'd happily lynch Penguin Zero or Be, but I'd really like to see Penguin Zero swing today.
A sudden (or not so sudden) change of opinion about me and spectrumvoid. Still completely convinced that PZ is scum, or so I assume.
Thesp wrote:Umm, lynching sans claim is always a bad idea.

FOS: all you guys
I believe all the votinf towards lynch was on PZ, who Thesp was attempting to lynch anyways. Kind of odd
Thesp wrote:Yay! The best plan at this point is to have the cop claim and then no lynch, since we almost certainly have a doctor (or a very gambity mafia).

I am not the cop.

Everyone should follow suit. If you do the maths, you'll agree, but I'll be happy to walk you through why it is.

Please, no votes yet.
Cop claim could be good, no lynch most likely bad. I later asked him to elaborate on the details, in case there was something I might miss.
Thesp wrote:PBug, Be, spectrumvoid, claim. Quit stalling. You don't have to post anything elaborate, just claim cop or not cop. If you are cop, don't claim investigations.
And then none of them claimed cop.
Thesp wrote:If it's alright with everyone, let's wait on discussing doc claims until Be and PBuG have claimed. For the moment, let's not have a doc claim, then discuss its usefulness afterwards.
I agree.
Thesp wrote:Splendid. Personally, I think we should simply carry on from this point with discussion of who's scum, and try to avoid outing our doc. Of course, the doc should claim if an innocent is about to be voted/lynched, or if they're about to be lynched, but I think we've moved past the "curt" pat of the day.

My apologies for my previous brevity, I wanted things to go quickly and pressure people into their claims, because I felt the cop claim was clearly the optimal play at the time, and I didn't want scum to ponder making a cop claim. Scum tend to play safer when they're backed into a corner.

More thoughts later, I'm certainly willing to entertain the benefits/drawbacks of an outright doc claim right now.
Still against doc claim. At the time so was I.
Thesp wrote:Alright, here are my thoughts.

As scummy as I think spectrumvoid was at the end of D1, there was something he's said that made me think he's not scum. There's still the possibility that he is scum, but my strong guess is that he's not.

Ogianres' hesitancy on the plan today is perhaps somewhat telling.

And Leptokurt has been thinking very townie all day. Both days. He's said nothing that makes me think he's scum, and said a couple of things that make me think he's town.

This leaves Be + PBuG. Here's where I think our scum pair is, and I think there's a good case for it. Let's look at the posts I find particularly suspicious, shall we?
After this post, I had him down as cop or as scum. He's voting PBuG for a weak reason, and acknowledges the weakness of that reason, which is unusual because a couple of other substantive cases had been made agaist other players (Penguin Zero, Ogianres).
PBuG responds by voting Be "based on certain reactions" (a weak reason which no one would look at and in and of itself follow). He's fine to pace a vote on that, but in retrospect it does liik like "distancing" - a tactic where two fellow mafia players appear to be on opposite sides. It's most effective when it looks genuine but doesn't lead to anything. This setup appears much in line with that.
After a previous post asking about deadlines, he "switches" his vote over. (It doesn't happen here, but his intent seems to be moving to Penguin Zero.) No more vote on our lurking PBuG, who didn't post for the entire rest of the day while a townie was being run up! Hmmmmmm......

I think it would be easiest for scum to wait and see what happens with the cop claim on D2, and that's exactly what happens here. Be and PBuG are the last to post, despite the fact that PBuG appears to have had the opportunity to do so. PBuG's posts today ave been the extremely safe "I don't think the doc should claim unless pressured because we might need him/her.", and the one right above mine, where he acts wishy-washy while throwing suspicion onto me. He's also claiming I played the last game with him differently, but doesn't say how. Here's the last game we were in together:
Feel free to agree if you think so, I'm not sure in what particular way he thinks that. He's welcome to elaborate.

Speculating on who the doctor might have healed might be useful, but might lead us nowhere. I think a doc might very likely have protected me, but that may be ego getting in the way.

And lastly, as far as whether or not I'm scum, you have to seriously consider my play at the beginning of the day on that note. Now, you can say WIFOM and all that, feel free. I just want you to consider that. I'd be happy to divulge what I think my optimal play as scum would have been, but I don't think it's necessary.
He believes(ed) that spectrumvoid is townie, his opinion about me wavers a bit, he believes almost certainly that Leptokurt is townie. He then says that PBuG and Be are most likely scum. Says Be vote for PBuG, when substansive cases has been made agains me and PZ. I was never really convinced that PZ was scum. But I voted for him anyway. He then says that PBuG voted for Be for weak reasons, whic I do agree with. Speculating on who the doctor healed is useless unless we know for sure. And Thesp has been acting a little WIFOMy in this game. He also seems to have an almost even number of posts that look innocent and guilty.
Thesp wrote:Are you saying in Newbie 244 that I didn't play aggressively in that game D1? (I would disagree with that.) And that I played cautiously D2? (I would agree with that.) Hmm.
This just screams to me that he's trying too hard to appear town. Does it look that way to anyone else?
Thinks PBuG is scummy still.
Thesp wrote:Am I hearing you correctly, that you're suggesting good reasoning not be listened to, because sometimes it's wrong?

I always have my own reservations (whether or not I display their extents), but I'm not sure what you're suggesting is sensical.
It was valid reasoning, but easy to back off of. All he had to do was post more to give you justification.

I'm actually leaning much more towards PBuG at this point, and am starting to see an alternate explanation. Both hinge on PBuG, though, I'm thinking he's the best play for today, and if I voted, that woud be where my vote would be.
He raises an interesting point in his starting paragraph. I can't make any solid observations on the rest of his post.
Thesp wrote:The reason for that is that if we had a doctor and a cop, then we simply no lynch and let the mafia guess at who the cop had investigated. That puts us in D3 where the mafia kills someone who is not the cop, and hopefully they didn't kill someone investigated by the cop. Then, the cop reveals all their investigations, and we get to move from there. IF the cop is truthful, we have 1-2 confirmed innocents, and maybe a living doctor for counter-claims.

Compare this with a worst case scenario of a cop and a doc, where the cop investigated a doctor, the cop claims their investigation, then the mafia kills the confirmed innocent. We end up D3 with a cop and 1 confirmed innocent (presuming the cop is truthful).

The first scenario is a town win if the cop is truthful and believed. The second scenario is still very much in the air.
Elaborates on his plan from the start of the day.
Thesp wrote:It's not true that only scum lurk, though scum tend to lurk more. However, in my experience, scm rarely tend to admit to lurking. I don't count that as a strike against him as scum, just as a player.
I assume that he is on the fence as to whether or not me admitting to lurking is and indication of me being scum.

Now Thesp is similar to PBuG (in a general way) in that his posts don't seem to uniformly point one way or the other. His first posts seem scummy, then his later posts don't. I feel the opposite is true with PBuG. I'm leaning towards town on Thesp.
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Post Post #160 (isolation #19) » Wed Jul 26, 2006 6:06 pm

Post by Ogianres »

Be wrote:With that reasoning, I'm very tempted to vote for myself. But on the subject of names, I'm going to Vote: Thesp, because his name reminds me of plays, and I remember seeing a play called "Blood Brothers" that was absolutely shocking.
Random vote.
Be wrote:That's true and all, but I don't think you quite understand just how bad this play was and all. Anyway, if Thesp is working off the reasoning that my name is a scum tell, I welcome your votes, as that would be funny enough to justify dying innocent.
I see this as a subtle attack on me and Thesp.
Be wrote:Yeah, but I still want to know why me, Red Baron and spectrumvoid are the ones you think are Mafia
Understandable confusion.
Be wrote:I think what he's saying is that the three he said - me, now Penguin Zero and spectrumvoid - seem like scum from stuff we've said. I can't figure out why, and he's made no mention to explain one way or the other, so my vote for Thesp remains
I don't remember if this was before or after Thesp explained his reasoning. Still, it seems a little reasonable to vote for someone hwo is voting for you with little presented evidence.
Be wrote:I'm tempted to vote for spectrumvoid as revenge, but I'm thoroughly confused. I don't think Thesp is scum, but I don't also think he isn't. So - Unvote, FoS - Thesp
The first part worries me, and the second part is indecisiveness just like he says.
Be wrote:Two guys are scum, but the problem is, you've just named three names and STILL haven't given any reasons. I've changed my mind about this: Vote: Thesp again.
And on his next post he jumps right back to voting for Thesp.
Be wrote:That's not actually a reason, hence why I said you still haven't given any reasons.
So this is after Thesp stated his reasoning. I'm not sure whether or not I agree with Be on this issue.
Be wrote:If he's trying to get the game moving, it's hardly been a good job. What are we, two days into it and still no opening lynch?
I'm more used to the first-day lynch taking much longer than two days. He is sounding somewhat bloodthirsty at this point.
Be wrote:Not really. There's been no even remotely solid evidence, so most votes are still random at this point.
Actually when he made this post I think we were on about page 2. I don't believe page 2 should ever have random votes. I believe that we would be past that satge by then.
Be wrote:That's a better reason that I thought you'd had for voting Ogianres, actually.
In response to Leptokurt voting for me.
Be wrote:The reason I thought Lepto had for voting Ogianres was just a random vote, that's all.
It was.
Be wrote:I'm going to go with you on that, actually, and vote: PBug. He's posted five times in the topic - five out of 67 posts, may I add - and if you look at Mafia 243 (the Rock Star one, which was over in five pages), frenchguy1 barely posted. I may be bandwagoning, but this is nearest we've got to evidence.
Lurking is not evidence. It can be supplement to evidence, but it is not evidence itself, or at least I believe so.
Be wrote:Is there a time limit or something for the days?
Honest question.
Be wrote:Thank Christ, a third vote. To finally get day 1 over, I'm changing my vote from PBug to Penguin Zero.
Now I particularly don't like this post. He just seems to want the day to get over with quickly, rather than correctly.
Be wrote:Mistake. I, for some reason, thought you'd put the third vote on him.
Semantics.
I'm none - I'm bored with the roundabout discussion that's going absolutely nowhere, and I want something to happen.
Here's a pre-emptive one - I want the damn day to be over, and I don't care who dies to get it. Hell, change your votes to me if you want.
Responding to other quotes, which makes this difficult. Anyways his last paragraph stands out the most. He doesn't care at all about who we lynch, which seems extremely stupid. This is not pro-town thinking.
Be wrote:Hallelujah, we can finally end this. Vote: Penguin Zero
And he gets his wish by jumping on a bandwagon. A bandwagon that I too was part of.
Be wrote:That's because I'm lazy. And much as I would like to say I am the cop, I can't do it.
Lazy is no excuse. And I take his claim as either a careful scum or honest townie. At this point I'm leaning towards the former.
Be wrote:So why IS it a weak reason? Just like PBug and you, now, I'm using an example of a previous game to support my theory. And it is true - that was the closest thing we had to evidence at the time.
But here's the problem - he IS voting for me, and the chances of it actualy being distancing, with his weak reasoning, is tiny. More telling, in my eyes, is that he recognises you ARE spewing crap and thus makes two of us to see that.
What exactly is that last bit supposed to prove? As I said, that first day had gone on for far too long for my liking and I wanted to bring it to a close. You already said you thought that was a weak reason, but weak or not, that was why I voted the way I did.
So because I didn't post I wasn't the cop quickly - IGNORING THAT I HADN'T BEEN ABLE TO GET ON THE INTERNET UNTIL THEN - I look like scum. Yes, very good Thesp, but all this has done is made me more suspicous of you as a result. I'm not prepared to lynch you out of spite, but I will point a Finger of Suspicion at you.
First off just because Thesp isn't staing his reasoning doesn't mean he doesn't have any. At this point I can understand why he thought that Be was scummy. And then he says he thinks the first day was way too long.
Honestly, I just can't agree with that, and I think that it is horribly scummy.
"I'm not prepared to lynch you out of spite" Which sounds scummy.
Be wrote:PBug looks like the most obvious suspect, but I agree with Leptokurt on Ogianres and his lurking. I have fingers of suspicion on both of them, but I'm really not sure which way to vote. I will say, however, that spectrumvoid somehow managing to not get voted for at all (I don't think) is starting to make me a little suspicious, but that's not much. I'd probably vote PBug in a pinch, but that doesn't mean Ogianres is off the hook at all.
He says PBuG is the most likely scum, but also thinks that my admitting to lurking is equally scummy as PBuG's actions. As for being suspicious of spectrumvoid because she hasn't been voted for is mostly just being paranoid. But I have to thank Be for pointing that out. I'm gonna have to watch spectrum a little more closely.

Overall I'm feeling strongly that Be is scum, so I will
FOS: Be
.
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Post Post #162 (isolation #20) » Wed Jul 26, 2006 8:39 pm

Post by Ogianres »

Okay, now I will present my own quotes. However, so I don't dilute or misrepresent them, I will not comment on any of them. I will also not include the posts in which I analyze others' posts, because 1.) it's right there and 2.) they are useless without the appropriate quotes.
Ogianres wrote:VOTE: Be for having the shortest name. Clearly a scum tell.
Ogianres wrote:UNVOTE
VOTE: Red Baron

Come on and join the fun! If not you'll probably get booted for inactiveness.
Ogianres wrote:I highly doubt that.
Ogianres wrote:No it's just that I don't understand your line of reasoning. I don't have any reason to suspect any of them one way or the other yet. Could you explain how you came to your conclusion?
Ogianres wrote:I don't think it's a good idea since we have, like I said before, almost no concrete evidence to base accusations on. And since I'm not sure whether or not my vote carries over UNVOTE.
Ogianres wrote:Thesp, I don't understand what you are doing. If you are just trying to get conversation and responses going then well done. If not, then why do the three people you suspect manage to be the people you suspect? What did they do to tip you off to them being scum?
Ogianres wrote:Actually, I don't believe the first lynch should be random. True that the first page is generally random voting, it doesn't have to lead to a evidence-absent lynch.
Ogianres wrote:When was I defensive against a random vote? I was talking about how spectrumvoid said that most first-day lynches are random.
Ogianres wrote:The first lynch in the game doesn't ever need to be random. If you hit a townie (which there is about a 72% chance of happening if it is completely random), we don't just lose that townie, we lose two if the doctor doesn't manage to protect the right person during the night. If that happens then mafia will make up 40% of the people left the next day, which I don't want to happen. Then, assuming that we lose two townies, we are forced to the point where we absolutley have to lynch a mafiate or we lose. A random lynch just leads to a wasted day and cripples the town.
Ogianres wrote:I want to hear from PBuG and PZ before I cast my vote.
Ogianres wrote:As much as I feel that there is a lack of solid evidence this game is getting very slow right now and I'm suprised we haven't gotten a deadline already. VOTE: PZ.
Ogianres wrote:I somewhat understand your plan Thesp but it would help if you were to elaborate on the details.
Ogianres wrote:Not cop.
Ogianres wrote:Because then it gives a good target for the mafia if the cop is being protected by the doc.
Ogianres wrote:Yes I've been prodded. It's not that I have been gone, but that I've been lurking.

Well, on to what I think about PBuG.
... Uh, crap. How do I link directly to individual posts? I wanna do a post-by-post analysis but I don't want to clutter up the screen with wuotes
Ogianres wrote:Nothing happens when I click on the quote button. If I can't link by about 6:00 tomorrow I'm just gonna quote each post.
Ogianres wrote:I understand, but none ofthe buttons are working. I'm just gonna have to quote each individual post. *sigh* Give me a few minutes.


There, al my posts in neat order. interpret them as you will.
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Post Post #184 (isolation #21) » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:18 am

Post by Ogianres »

If I was the doc I did not heal PBuG.
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Post Post #197 (isolation #22) » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:48 pm

Post by Ogianres »

I think that the game is over. And in any case I know that spectrumvoid and Be are the mafia.
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Post Post #200 (isolation #23) » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:05 am

Post by Ogianres »

I protected Thesp night 1. I knew he was town for nearly the whole game.
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Post Post #204 (isolation #24) » Thu Aug 03, 2006 1:13 pm

Post by Ogianres »

Why is everyone talking as if we are still playing? I'm confused.
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Post Post #207 (isolation #25) » Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:54 pm

Post by Ogianres »

7 people at the start of the game right? Two of those people are mafia, correct? If the mafia make up 50% of the living players they win right? We have three dead townies, correct? That means of the four people left, two are mafia right? 2/4 = 50% which means that the mafia have won, correct? I don't understand why MeMe hasn't declared a game over yet.
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Post Post #210 (isolation #26) » Thu Aug 03, 2006 4:47 pm

Post by Ogianres »

MeMe wrote:Any time a game is stagnating -- due to tie votes or lack of posts or whatever -- a deadline will be set. At deadline, a half-majority of votes will be necessary to lynch (e.g. if a deadline were declared today,
two
votes would be necessary at deadline). If there's a tie vote when deadline falls, the player who accumulated the votes first will swing.
Oh holy crap!
VOTE: Be
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Post Post #217 (isolation #27) » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:47 am

Post by Ogianres »

Leptokurt you were looking like the second scummiest person by the end of the day. The most, obviously, being Be.

Just out of curiosity, but what exactly tipped you over to believing that PBuG was scum? I thought he was slightly scummy, but he never struck me as anti-town. It was one of the things that made me belive that you were mafia and thus should not have been protected.

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