Newbie #228 - The Doom of Tinytown (Game Over!)

[Iammars]

Wow. It feels good to do this again.

*Pulls out confirming joke, wipes rust off of it*

/conform

That feels good!

[Iammars]

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

[Iammars]

Random Vote: MeMe

Sorry, but the dice are never wrong...

[Iammars]

Game on!

Random vote: Iamm

e

rs

just to welcome him back!

Welcome to mafia, newbies. If you have any questions, Iamm

e

rs, MeMe, and myself are here to serve. You can trust what we say about how to play the game, but not about what roles we have in the game. (Well, except for me. You can always trust me in

whatever

I say.)

Anyway...
I believe that they should count. That's what Flay said (at least, if I was mod that's what I would do (but then again, I never have confirmations in thread, so who am I to talk(did you notice that I like the () marks that I cannot spell?)))

[Iammars]

viper: That would be a bit of a dead giveaway. I take the point that we have to be careful in a small game, but there's still a pretty good chance we'll be lynching a townsperson on the first day.

I should probably say that I'm not a complete newbie to the game, having played a turbo game (of the Werewolf variety) and read through a number of other games. Not sure what the status of the other newbies is.

MeMe: Unless the Mod says otherwise, I'd assume they count. In the initial post the Mod said the game began as soon as everyone confirms, so as soon as I confirmed my role it should have been game on.

It's just a small warning! We don't want a speedlynch on the first/second page!

If there is a speedylynch on the first or second page, then we have a pretty good clue of who's scum, as the later people to jump on are probably scum.

@RandomActs: I forgive you. For now... :sinister:

[Iammars]

I don't know. Flay's usually good with vote counts.

[Iammars]

You seem to be really defensive about it, though.

I believe it's the duty of every player to do their best to stay alive. Being unduly defensive is when you freak out about one vote. Being kinda defensive is when you freak out about two. Getting heated up about three in a newbie game, though, isn't

defensive

, it's dutiful play.

Not always. If sacrificing yourself means giving the town more information, then you might not want to keep yourself alive. But in this case. It is a one-for-one trade, sacrificing a random town player to find a mafia and MAYBE the second (very unlikely). Even a townie would not like this. Therefore, every town member WOULD defend himself or herself agaisnt an attack like this.
Meanwhile, I will not be a part of any speedylynch that could take place, so I will

Unvote

.

[Iammars]

Note: I wrote half this post with a 3-hour break before I wrote the second half, so it may seem a little disjointed.

I agree Arvadite looks a bit suspicious but whether it's noobness or scumminess (or both) I can't say. I'm certainly not ready to lynch him just yet.

What I would like to do is

FOS: Iammars

. He's been pretty quiet in the thread so far, and the posts he has made just seem a little TOO eager to seem like a townie (i.e. making a big show of random voting, and making a big show of unvoting... rather than just doing it).

Meh... it's not much, but what else is there? I'm not a huge fan of the structure of these games, Day 1 is pretty random and then suddenly if you guess wrong you're at Lynch Or Lose on Day 2.

I've been pretty quiet in the thread so far because I can only get on so often and the game I mod has priority.

Also, even more in these games than in any other, I always explain what I am doing, so that I can hopefully teach newer people.

I didn't say it there wasn'T. What I said was that it was suspicious that within three minutes of eachother you voted for me, as if you two had planned on doing so. I am really starting to get tired of people misreading my posts or asking me to restate things. I am not asking the reasoning, because I know that. What I am questioning is the length of time between them because it suggests that you two either planned it or are working together. I even stated you HAD a logical reason for voting for me. My defense was honest because I have nothing to hide. As for not changing my defense, that would look even more suspisious if I did so. In resposne to MeMe: I'm not saying vote for anyone, I'm trying to say we need more people questioning, rather than just viper and random harassing me.

Okay, you went and placed a third vote for someone and meant to do it. This is very scummy. As town, you NEVER want to rush a mafia game. The more time the town talks amongst itself, the more time the town can use to try to trap the mafia. (Because, the mafia has more time to screw up.)

Its scummy that you waited for someone else to cast a vote in order to cast yours.

I agree, somewhat. If RandomActs turns out to be scum, I will be a little more suspicious of viper (but not the other way around.) But that's neither here nor there. In order for that to even happen, we need to prove RandomActs to be scummy, and with his posts so far, that's not happenin' any time soon.
Besides, there is a perfectily legitimate townie explanation for his actions. It could be that viper felt that you were scummy, but he wasn't quite sure about whether or not he should vote yet, and once viper saw RandomActs' post, it put together stuff that he hadn't found yet, so he went ahead and voted him.
BUT, I do find it suspicious that viper did place the third vote on Arvadite so quickly. Here we are telling Arvadite that his third vote makes him suspicious, but viper's is also a little suspicious. Not enough to get a vote, but enough to get an

FOS: viper

[Iammars]

Yeah yeah yeah. The end of the week is better for me. (Stupid scouts AND chess being on the same night. )

[Iammars]

I agree Iammars but it seems more likely for vper0933 to be scum. All he has done so far is make up more excuses about re-reading the post and voting because Random did. Viper already told me if I wanted to defend myself I would change my story, which it seems hes trying to do. Another vote on someone is not more evidence that they are scum, for the person voting could be scum. Viper and I have been the most active peopel in the forum, so it highly unlikely he hasn't read something. I'm sorry but I don't believe your defense because it seems unlikely someone like yourself who isn't a noob wouldn't see specific things.

All I'm saying is that I find viper as scummy as you are. It is possible to miss things or not connect things. It happens to me some times, so it doesn't matter whether the person in question is a n00b or experienced player. And I didn't say that I missed something, but that viper did.

[Iammars]

Where are you pulling those numbers from?

[Iammars]

But what you're saying is that those situations are as likely as any situation that occurs with those same conditions and different names, which is not true. (Try sticking mine or ChrisV's name there. At the moment, there isn't much against us, so they wouldn't make sense.)

[Iammars]

So then, is seven the correct denominator we want to use in this situation?

[Iammars]

I think I should just dump that. My analysis apparently isn't right at all (which Iammars is pretty much saying). <_<

I'm basically saying that spouting out the probability in this case is not as helpul as one may think, as we are not concerned about probablility with the information we currently have.

[Iammars]

If we lynch MeMe this round, say, and she turns out to be a townie, then what?

We get to say that we finally lynched MeMe as town?

But seriously now, I would like to ask Erotomachia to comment a little bit, and I'll have some participation percentages and a post talking about the one ChrisV just posted tomorrow. Photoshoppin' takes a lot out of you.

[Iammars]

Just so you guys know, I'm still working on my response to posts #129-160. It's almost done and should be seen either today or tomorrow. Sorry about not participating for a little while.

[Iammars]

Just so you guys know, I'm still writing my reponse. It is currently six pages on looseleaf and counting (but almost done.)

[Iammars]

why can't you just type it up?

Because I can't pull out my laptop and type when I'm randomly bored in school.

[Iammars]

Note: Some of these posts may cover topics already talked about. I will still give my opinons because they are still important.

This post covers posts #129-160

#129 by Erotomachia:
You mentioned that you think that MeMe is holding something because of her "duty" to the town. Duty to the town is something every townie should have, because otherwise, you will not a good chance at winning. The one thing a townie knows for sure is their own alignment. And because I know my own alignment, if the town starts to attack me, it is my duty to defend myself as vigorously as possible to stop the town from making the wrong choice. And why wouldn't I do this if I were scum? Well, with a lttle manipulation, sometimes a lynch of a scum can make his or her partner look better in the town's eyes.

#131 by Erotomachia:
The first thing you mention is that MeMe can't have had suspicion earlier because she didn't show it. Unlike face-to-face mafia, one doesn't have to show every single emotion that one feels. If you feel something in your gut saying "Mr. Z is scum," you probably don't have enough evidence to go on it yet, so it may prove to be a bad idea if you voice it, because the town will just ignore it and the scum may focus on it and will kill you. One is not required to FOS everyone one thinks is suspicious.
Next, you mention MeMe's "hypocrisy" about wanting the three votes off of her, but being okay with the three votes on Arvadite. There is a difference between the two situations. The three votes on MeMe were three quick random votes on a nonscummy person. The three votes on Arvadite were three people who believed that Arvadite was scum. Also, MeMe has a duty to the town to try to stop them from lynching her so the thown has a better chance of winning. Arvadite appeared scummy to her, so she wouldn't really feel all that bad about lynching him. If Arvadite is town, he needed to be defending himself better than he was at that time.
Also, you mention that a quick, unexplained fourth vote is obviously from scum. That is not completely true. A quick, unexplained fourth vote would NOT come from a good town player. This still leaves three possibilities:
-An experienced, scum player
-An inexpierenced, scum player
-An inexperienced, town player
The question is: Would an experienced scum player put a quick, unexplained fourth vote on someone?

It's that Magic Number Crunching Time!

What is the chance that a cop will investigate the player and survive through the night to reveal his results?

Cop Reveal = Cop Exist * Cop Alive D2
Cop Alive D2 = Not D1 Lynch * Not N1 Kill
Not N1 Kill = No Kill + Kill Not Cop
No Kill = Doc Exist * Mafia Don't Target Doc * Doc Protects Target
Kill Not Cop = 3/4
Doc Exist = Cop Exist = 3/4
Mafia Don't Target Doc = 3/4
Doc Protects Target = 1/5
Not Lynch = 6/7
No Kill = 1/2 * 3/4 * 1/5 = 3/40
Not Nightkill = 3/40 + 3/4 = 33/40
Cop Alive D2 = 6/7 * 33/40 = 99/140
Cop Reveal = 1/2 * 99/140 = 99/280 = 35.357%

So there is about 1/3 percentage that there will be a cop coming out with results to incriminate him. The scum's only option is to counterclaim the cop, and past results have shown that scum doesn't usually come out on top with that. For the other 65%, the scum will have an scummy air to him or her (especially is he or she is Inexperience Challenged) for the rest of the game, no matter what happens or what logic is brought up in his defense.
Now we go back to our list:

-An experienced, scum player

-An inexpierenced, scum player
-An inexperienced, town player
Notice anything? Only inexpierenced people are left. So it is not a sure scum tell, but an inexperience tell.

Next, you say that everyone will behave in a rational manner. This, unfortunatly, is not always the case. There are two main factors on a human being's ability to use rational thought: How experienced they are, and their emotions/if they allow them to get in the way. About the emotions, if I came back from a chess tournament going 0-7 agaisnt players with an average rating of 500 (mine's 1322), I would be really pissed. If I were to come and post, I would not be thinking straight whatsoever, and I would have a tendency to attack people even more randomly.
About familiarity, I need to make another chess metaphor. The major opening that I play is the Colle-Koltanowski (sp?), and one of the themes that is in the opening is a Bishop sac on h7 leading to a devastating (and also, rather fun) attack on the kingside. While I did study this opening before I played it, the real experience in it came while I was playing the game. I may have had trouble seeing all of the conditions that I needed for that sac, but later, as I got better, I started seeing when that sac worked more often, and I won more games with it. We have the same situation here with mafia, as we have people who haven't experienced much of mafia yet? Can you always expect them to come to the best decidions 24/7? No.
Later, in that same paragraph, you blast MeMe for using a hypothetical situation in which she is scum. Such situations are okay for townsmembers to use. Other townsmembers do not know if they are town or not, so the townsmember in question can show how it would look to those people if he or she was scum, and show how absurd it is.
After that you call out MeMe for being overdefensive. Let me ask you, is it possible to be overdefensive ina situation like that?
Finally, in the last paragraph of your post, you say that MeMe is trying to use her "fights harder as town" arguement to prove that she is a townsmember. In order for that to be deduced, MeMe had to say that she is fighting harder than she usually does, and nowhere did she say that. Therefore what you said cannot be logically deduced.

#134 by Erotomachia:
The first thing you mention is that MeMe's voting patterns look scummy. The truth of the matter is, half the town thought at the time that Arvadite was scummy, so in order for Arvadite to lose his votes, he needed to explain his actions and otherwise convince us that he is a townsmember. This is completely different than the three votes on MeMe. I also like this little gem of yours:

So 3 quick votes agaisnt you = big problem, yet 3 quick votes agaisnt Arvadite = no problem

More like them manner and reason in which the three votes were casted on MeMe = anti-town strategy, the manner and reason in which the three votes were casted on Arvadite = pro-town strategy. When studying someone's voting history, don't look at just which vote was placed where, but why the votes were placed.

#138 by ChrisV:
I like your thinking about getting lynched, but there is one problem. The day phase is designed to favor the town more than it does the mafia (much like the night phase is designed to help out the mafia more than it is helping out the town.) If the town knows what it is doing, it has a better chance of kynching mafia than it does of lynching town. So it's more of a skill in shunting the town away when they're making a bad choice.

#142 by Arvadite:
Reason #1 you give is that MeMe used a defense that you described as

This to me sounds as a good defense to use if infact she were scum, for the fact that townies will recognize that it would be bad to lose one of those people early

It has become the general consenus among the MS community that sppedylynching is bad for the following two reasons:
-The town would lose a cop or a doc
-It cuts the town's talking time.
Why would it be scummy to use reasons that the MS community has decided prove that something is bad?
You also give who you believe the scum pairing is at the moment, what you think happened, and why you think so. The major event that sparks your consideration of this turn of events is viper's quick third vote on you. According to you, the only explanation is that viper was waiting for someone to vote so that viper and MeMe could distance their vites apart. What you are forgetting to consider is that mafia members can take time with their votes. They don't have to vote right after someone else votes. True, the longer they wait, the more of a chance that someone will unvote, but there will also be less attention drawn to the vote, which serves scum's purpose better later in the game. viper's reaction appears to be more like someone who just realized something and posted in his brainwave.

#144 by Arvadite:
You're basically making the same mistake as Erotomachia is. You're assuming that every person shows every single emotion that they feel during an online mafia game. I myself, because I'm playing online, will always try to think before I post, and sometimes I will mull over a post for a little while before posting. Also, because we're playing mafia online and everyone has a perfect record of what everyone has said, more evidence is needed to prove that someone is scum than in face-to-face mafia. If someone has one of those weird feelings about someone, they might not want to post is as there is probably not enough evidence.

#146 by Arvadite:
You make an intresting statement:

Using someone else vote as a "more powerful arguement" is waiting for someone else to vote, regardless of what you say the reason is.

To resond this statement, I am going to have to compare this situation to an endothermic chemical reaction.

Point A is where everyone starts in a game, and B is the point in which the person's whose graph this is gains enough energy to get a vote. Throughout the game, as people look more and more suspicious, they gain energy on the scale. viper could have been close to point B on his reaction scale involving you. He lept up to B when he saw RandomAct's post. What did it contain? Compiled info, with suggestions to what it might all mean. But why does info already in the thread matter? Compiled info can be a dangerous thing, as proved by the Supreme Court, when they held up the government's decision to stop the New York Times (I think) from printing compiled info of the Vietnam War. Having everything in one area makes it easy to establish connections. Besides, if we didn't listen to other people's arguementsand used them as the basis of our decisions, this wouldn't be a game of mafia.

#148 by Arvadite:
The arguement to this one is basically the same as the last one. Compiled info is easier to see, and viper may not have been able to make the connections without Random Acts

#150 by Arvadite:
What MeMe said is a reaction. She said what you said was complete crap.


So, who are my suspicious people at the moment?
Erotomachia: Your posts have a good amount of exagerations and spins on event, and you are saying that the three votes on MeMe and Arvadite are the exact same thing.
Arvadite: Your arguement consists of saying the same thing over and over again, on the most minimal of evidence that can be explained easily in a more logical way.
ChrisV, viper, Kelly Chen, RandomActs: Nothing on them, yet.

[Iammars]

Are you kidding me? Is this your idea of pro-town behaviour? Not posting at all for like 9 pages of discussion and then throwing up some godforsaken uberpost which doesn't talk about your suspicions of people, but instead makes detailed references back to specific posts inamongst 9 pages that nobody can be bothered looking at. And then, after this gigantic essay, your conclusions... are that you suspect the same people everyone else suspects and have nothing on anyone else? WHAT???

As I said earlier, I am not the fastest to respond to logic. I tend to try to think through my posts, especially if everyone else in thinking through them. You guys just pushed through a whole lot of logic in a short amount of time, and my brain just went haywire.
As for reaching the same conclusions as everyone else and not bringing up anything on anyone else, I went throught those 31 posts, and those were the only parts of them that I had found deserved some rebuttal too. Since no one else posted anything that deserved that, I didn't mention it, and they don't seem scummy to me.
Had I not posted is but kept on amending it to reflect the situation, I would have never posted it.

This is just town-confusing behaviour and makes me want you off the team whether you're scum or not.

I know that this isn't my normal playstyle, but due to Meatworld obligations now, I can't play like I used to.

Even though I like Mafia and am still playing it on other sites I won't be playing here again because these games are, sorry guys, horrible. Any game where it's lynch-or-lose day two if you lynch a villager first and where the seer hasn't got a free pick on the first night are badly structured, period. Also I think they give newbies a really bad impression of what Mafia is actually about.

Since I doubt I can raise a bandwagon for Iammars, and since I still think Erotomachia is a reasonable pick and just want this day to end....

First of all, if this structure is bad, why don't you give us a better one to introduce newbies in. And if you really don't like this one, why don't you just jump into a mini or normal? They have majorly different setups than newbies.
Second of all, you seem to be agreeing with the town on Eorotmachia, so why are you complaining that I am agrreing with the town too? Just because a post is long doesn't mena that it has to say something different that hasn't been brought up before.

[Iammars]

Stop misreading things that I stated. I already said in my post why I think you two are more likely connected than others, Iammars coming out of nowhere to defend you in his posts (read mine over again). Why didn't i seem like the right one to lynch anymore? Nobody had changed any arguments or anything. In fact, there was more evidence against me than when you voted. I was stating that it was unlogical. And what does "not doing any good" mean? That seems like your only voting to try and get someone lynched, not attack someone who you think is scum. If it wasn't doing any good how come you in fact voted for me again because I don't see how its doing any more good now than it was then.

Why did I come out of nowhere to defend viper, because I don't see him doing anything wrong, so why should I attack him?

[Iammars]

and I didn't say that you should attack him, I was stating that you defended someone who wasn't under attack for no apparent reason. And I'm not gettign desperate, I am just really getting tired of viper stating hes made flaws in my comments when all he has done is word twisting.

Last time I checked, you were accusing him and MeMe of being a likely scum pair. Sounds like attacking someone to me.


I am cuurently up for an Arvadite lynch. Anyone else who isn't already voting Arvadite up for it as well?

[Iammars]

Here, since this seems to be the town's decision, and I do believe that ARvadite is scummy:

Vote: Erotomachia

[Iammars]

Yes ChrisV, that was a nice job, and you slightly slip on the scumdar (that's a good thing). And true, I didn't bring any unique theories to the thread, but I brought unique explanations to the thread.

And I have a weird feeling that we have no doc.


(And as a side note, I have the most seniority here. Damn. I feel old.)

[Iammars]

*Comes back, sees he has two votes*
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
*runs away, runs back*


Anyway... Firstly, a claim: I am just an ordinary, run of the mill, vanilla townie. Nothing special.

I think that Kelly Chen was NKed simply because she used to be MeMe. She's got MeMe's legacy behind her, plus she by herself is a force to be reckoned with. The more good town players you kill off, the better of a chance you have of winning. Or MeMe might have dropped a cop tell or hint somewhere. I think I'll check for that later (but I seriously doubt that MeMe would've done that.)

Plus RA, I'm not the best scum in a newbie game. I do better in theme games where I can make stuff up, especially post restrictions.

[Iammars]

Or throws it back on you, whichever you feel applies.

[Iammars]

Idiots.

I wasn't lying.

[Iammars]

More coming after the game.

[Iammars]

I believe someone mentioned in D2 that I was using "hey guys I'm a townie so stop lynching me" as a defense. There is no reason in the world to do that, as it is impossible to prove. I admit my defense was weak, but as I said earlier, I had a littl etrouble keeping up D1.

Now I really know why Commodore Amazing once called me "Iammars, scapegoat extordinare."