Newbie 1131 - Game over

[Tajun]

Vote legend of mafia

Demyx wrote:
Question: Do you like being a vanilla townie? Why or why not?

I don't know really, this is my first game ever (RL or forum). If I had to guess, I would say I'm likely to prefer to play scum, as I like to see what I can get away with.

Question: In voting, are you allowed to use abbreviations? For example, could I have said "Vote LOM" instead?

[Tajun]

Sorry about the dumb question Vel-Rahn, I read the rules, I swear, but that one slipped past me.

I'm in GMT -5, aka Eastern Standard.

Right now, Legend Of Mafia is the only one who strikes me as particularily scummy. However, I don't want a policy lynch on the first day, so I will

Unvote

.
It strikes me that this is his personality, and that his actions would be the same Mafia or not. That being said, FOS on LOM.

I will however

Vote AndroidDreams

,
him/her being the first inactive I see. Are you with us?

[Tajun]

StefanB: I don't think a lynch is imminent by any stretch, I just wanted to get my vote somewhere more useful. If LoM is a joker, then he's not going to give us any useful info under pressure anyway, and I'd like to see the whole town get involved. Hence the vote on the inactive, to see if I could wake him up. Besides, I figured we were still basically in RVS anyway?

[Tajun]

@Demyx: By "Joker" I meant someone who is just here to joke around and not really interested in the game at all. I don't think there is a Joker role at all (Jester is the closest thing I can find, and we don't have one of those either).

@StefanB: I figure there are three possibilities for AndroidDreams: Either he's
1) Inactive, because he can't access the game or has lost interest. In this case my vote is useless and he will either activate or be replaced.
2) Townie who is watching, but not participating, in which case hopefully he will notice the attention and get involved or
3) Scum, who is lurking, in which case I would like to take the option of hiding away from him.

In cases 2 or 3, my vote is beneficial to the town.

[Tajun]

Tajun, joker role is another name for the jester role and that's what I thought you were saying. But yes, I believe your assessment of his personality is correct.

Ah, thanks for the info. Sorry for the confusion then.

forehead7 wrote:This question will make me seem dirty but I feel I need to ask it, how do the mafia communicate off-thread? Is it a PM conversation with all of them in it or is there a private board for them?


Well, forehead7 is probably town.

Tajun wrote:It strikes me that this is his personality, and that his actions would be the same Mafia or not. That being said, FOS on LOM.

I will however
Vote AndroidDreams,
him/her being the first inactive I see. Are you with us?


This is scummy. Why the FOS if you think his actions would be the same, scum or not?

Demyx, you are one of the people not voting, yet you are one of the more active players. Why is this?

Fair enough on that one. I meant that I would be keeping an eye on LOM, to get a feel for whether or not he was trying to pass himself off as someone goofing off, while being scum. Especially with his disappearence since, I doubt that that is the case, but it is possible.

I agree with Demyx and Haoala that it is hasty to label forehead as town, it seems very much a case of WIFOM to me.

[Tajun]

Now for a real vote I'm going with either StefanB, or Demyx, considering how much they passed the ball around in the beginning. It seemed too much like trying to keep the rest of us distracted.

Really? To be honest, I would have placed the two of them as my two most likely to be town. They both strike me as trying to stir up logical conversation, and posting a lot hardly strikes me as scummy.

Other than AndroidDreams, for the same reasons as others above, I suppose my only minor scum read is VitaminR. Call it OMGUS if you want, but his point on me post 56 struck me as little more than StefanB had already said, and his comments about StefanB post 26 seemed intended to cause us to doubt StefanB, without much justification (until post 33, which I thought was a bit weak as well). Other than that, he doesn't seem to have done much.

[Tajun]

StefanB: They are a bit different, come to think of it. You were calling me more on my vote, and he (VitaminR) was more on what I said to go along with it. Still strikes me a bit scummy though, like he was looking for something to say, and found your comment. I certainly wouldn't lynch on it, but I'll keep it in the back of my head.

Why couldn't epicmafia be linked? Is it some sort of copywrite thing?

I agree that we shouldn't policy lynch, but if LoM continues to flake on us I sure don't want him around in the endgame, town or not. Give us something to work with here LegendofMafia, a read, an opinion, anything.

Forehead, I thought Gingy was mainly from EpicMafia? Is it possible to link games from EpicMafia?

I have no idea, never been on the site. But I think not posting the links is questionable, maybe he doesn't want us to see his obvious mafia tells? Lets make him like this: (sorry, just wanted to use that emoticon)

Lusting for blood much? I'm not quite sure how to take that one.

What would you like to hear?

This is pretty scummy, in my opinion, especially after his return hours after a vote was cast against him. We would like to hear who you think are mafia, and why. Failing that, who do you think are town?

On that note, is it a good idea to post who we think are town as well as scum? It just occurred to me that if everyone thinks (insert name here) is town, it might make them a more likely mafia kill. What is the general policy here?

[Tajun]

I'm not sure about a lynch on LOM based on this, at least not day one. My biggest concern is that if he does flip town, I don't know that we would gain any new information from it. Who would be more likely scum based on this?

Unfortunately, I'm not sure I have a better idea, either.

[Tajun]

Assuming LOM's vote counts in spite of lack of bolding, we are now at L-1 on Gingy. And quite frankly, whether he is mafia or not, I think Legend of Mafia is dangerous to the town. From what I've seen, I don't think he would have hesitated to cast that vote if it was a hammer.

[Tajun]

@Vel-Rahn Koon: The rules say "Votes should be bolded or they may not be counted (e.g. Vote: Player)." Does that mean "will not be counted" or "will be counted, but only if I see them"?

[Tajun]

Rule 3: "Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes." It's also very hard to miss (LoM's vote, that is). It'll count, unless it fails because it isn't bold. Until Vel-Rahn Koon gets back to us, I suggest no one else votes for Gingy at any rate.

I really don't see why you are so suspicious of Gingy, forehead7. I agree that he has been flaky, but he did say he was busy with work. Hopefully he'll get back to us this weekend, with a little bit of attention on him. I'm not against the pressure, but I certainly don't see him as as scummy as LoM.

Speaking of which,

Unvote, Vote legend of mafia

.
Either he is scum, or he is being intentionally anti-town, mad at us for calling him a joker or something. Maybe just not interested in playing? Either way, his vote proves that he is present, and I consider it a very scummy one at that (Putting a player at L-1 without any justification). Personally, the more I think about it, the more I think he is scum.

Vote Sooky.

Intentionally useless.

Look at them all bandwaggoning. One of them is the mafia trying to get me out.

Totally unjustified.

Don't want to lynch me, I'm town.

Well if you lynch me then the mafia will be laughing won't they?

Again, intentionally and totally useless.

Vote Gingy!

Very scummy vote, going along with the crowd and trying to deflect attention to anyone that wasn't him.

I still think it's possible he's just screwing around, but it's getting harder and harder to believe. And even if he is town, I really don't want him around for the endgame. Both on general policy and because I think he is the scummiest player, I think that we should lynch him day 1, unless someone else jumps out at us as extremely scummy, or he starts to act really townlike really soon.

[Tajun]

First off, I am in no way an experienced player, as the limit of my mafia experience is reading 4 or 5 boards on this forum. That said, I'll answer as best as I can.

First off, the tiny chance you refer to is at least 25% on each. I would find it very hard to argue that either of them is more likely town than when we started playing, and that was the odds everyone started with. If I had to pick numbers, I would put Gingy at 35% and LoM at 40-45% atm. Granted, neither of those is big (even above 50%), but I don't see anyone who I would be willing to put as higher than either (with the possible exception of yourself at about 30-35%, AndroidDreams ).

In addition, there is a good chance we will mislynch tonight, as day 1 lynches are notoriously difficult. This being the case, there is also an argument to be made for lynching inactive/anti-town behavior players, since as the town shrinks (hopefully along with the mafia) their inactivity/ineffectivity will be more and more damaging (1 person out of 5 or 3 who is not contributing is crippling, whether they are town or scum, whereas with 1 or 2 out of 9 we can function as a town without them). Personally, while I can see the merit to this argument, I personally think that lynching the scummiest players is a better policy, and that this (policy lynches) should only be done in extreme cases. One can also factor inactivity/lurking into one's opinions about who is scummy, which might be the best approach.

In this case, I personally regard LoM as the best of both worlds. He is totally ineffective and particularily scummy, and although I couldn't even say better than a coin flip that he is scum, currently he is my favorite for a day 1 lynch.

Note that I did say currently: We still have a week and a half to try to get a better read on things, and I would not be unwilling to change my vote. That said, I think it would almost certainly be due to someone else doing something very scummy in the meantime, as LoM has shown no intention of contributing to the town, and I find it difficult to imagine a scenario in which he drops below 40%. If you are bothering to read the board Legend of Mafia, this is one of those times when I would be VERY happy to be proven wrong.

[Tajun]

Frankly, I don't trust our newest member. Whiskers, you might want to tone down the rhetoric, and look for actual evidence. Your last two posts came off pretty badly IMHO. If you're inspired enough to make wall postings on why you want to lynch LOM, you might want to put some of that effort into reading through the boards. There is lots there to think about, if you take the time.

@VitaminR and out S.E.'s: Is preemptively pointing out that your post is scummy a scumtell? I seem to recall it is, but I don't remember where I saw that.

For the time being, I am going to

Unvote

as I am not in favour of a quick lynch, and there are those out there looking to hammer. I am still considering a lynch of LoM day 1 unless something better presents itself, but I'd like to get as much out of this day as possible before we do.

In particular I'd like to think a bit more about the attacks on VitaminR. I'm more conflicted about the goings on around him than anyone right now. It strikes me as very strange that Whiskers would open fire on him right away, without any real evidence to back it up. Then when he got called on it, he came up with some pretty weak arguments to back it up. I think it is distinctly possible that Whiskers knows something the rest of us do not. On the other hand, I still host my own reservations about VitaminR; I have been getting a solid mixture of town and scum reads from him all day.

Sidenote: Welcome Whiskers!

[Tajun]

I must say that I agree with Whiskers (kind of) in that we should focus our attention elsewhere for the moment. I have no problem with a lynch of LoM day one, and I think we could easily drum up the support for it if it comes down to that.

Ah, I just thought of something: We don't have to do this now. I know that some of us, the IC for instance, don't think lom is scum. once we have you convinced, or at least willing to lynch in order to scum hunt others more better, THEN we'll stop hunting lom (a dead mouse). Okay?

This practically screams scum in my book. Firstly, you have stated previously that you yourself don't believe LoM is scum, and that you simply want him out of the game on a policy lynch. In addition, you seem to be assuming that LoM will be lynched day 1 regardless of the scenario. I have a serious problem with anyone who thinks they know what will happen. Thirdly, we don't need our IC's permission to lynch, if enough of us agree on who should go then they are gone regardless of what the rest think. Fourthly, if VitaminR is scum and LoM is town, then he is not going to change his position regardless, as it is the perfect scenario for him right now: He defends LoM to the grave, then when LoM flips town he scores major town points (This is of course not the most likely scenario, but one we should certainly be conscious of). It is most certainly what I would do as scum, being as how there is plenty of firepower aimed at LoM without his support.

It is my head vs my heart. My head is telling me that since LoM is not playing, there is a bigger chance for him to be town, even if his play is marginally better for scum.

This.

Also, in response to Demyx, (way to score town points by contrasting with me!) I want a quicklynch because I want to start playing the game and I fear that nothing will happen between now and the lynch.

However, it seems I've already been proven wrong.

AND IT IS BECUASE of this stoopid on my behalf that I unvoted, because You all seem to be reasonably competent players. Or, at least more competent than my last game, where we had a lynch for a day and then NOTHING HAPPENED for a week except fight over a dead mouse.

With regards to the first part, I disagree strongly with both Whiskers and StefanB. Thinking that scum would play better than this, therefore LoM is not scum boggles my mind. Firstly, if that is the case, then the best play for scum is to be as scummy as possible, since this argument can be made about any lurker/anti-town play. Secondly, it assumes that the player in question is a talented player, who knows how to fit in and would do so if they were scum, in order to win. In LoM's case, I don't see this as an accurate assumption. I remain at a bit back of a coin toss on LoM, my strongest read.

[Tajun]

That might be your problem, actually. Currently, you seem very concerned that people will think you are scum, and the comments you add to try to prevent that, ironically enough, are coming off as extremely scummy. Don't worry so much about what the town thinks of you; if someone asks you a question, answer it, and if someone makes a case against you, address it. Otherwise try to focus on the other players. You know you are town/scum, and going out of your way to demonstrate that you are town is killing you right now. Only scum should worry about it.

[Tajun]

Alright Whiskers, what did I just say? Don't worry too much about yourself. I really think that you are overthinking your posts, which is coming off as scummy. Scum have to worry about every line they write sounding scummy, and it's the polished style and backtracking that are the easiest ways to identify them. I'm not saying you should stop posting so much, I like your energy. I'm just saying, if you are town, keep your focus on the other players, and let the rest of the town worry about what they think of you.

On a related note, I looked back at your other completed game and the other ones in play right now, and most of my suspicions about you are lifted. I don't think you are scum, just a little bit unfocused right now.

[Tajun]

Heheh, fair enough. But that would have been a VERY bad call... Lying about your role (as a townie) is *not* a good idea, even for those reasons (avoiding a lynch, drawing mafia fire). More often you'll draw a counter-claim, get yourself lynched anyway, and get your real cop killed in the process (50% prob that you had one). Best case scenario you don't have one, you draw protection night 1 and the mafia wastes an attempted NK on you. But even in that case, the town will ask you what you learned about someone Night 1, and your lies will spiral, leading the town down a very bad path. Don't claim power roles unless you are one, or you are mafia. It makes it very hard on the town.

Looking back through the posts, AndroidDreams really sticks out in my head. Nothing too new, but this post

I've got a small problem with voting LOM and Gingy.
Pros: they don't post much and don't help our investigations
This is only bad if they are scum. Each of them has a tiny chance of being scum, so should we spend our lynch on quiets, or on the talkatives who we think are scum?
Maybe, just maybe, they are really sneaky scum. But is that likely considering the chances of getting assigned scum?
I agree that we should get rid of unhelpful townies when we can't decide on scum, but consider that obe of.us is definitely.going to die tonight. Do we really want to decide on guys who might not be playing? or should we sacrafice one of our own to make it easier later? Or should we assume LOM and Gingy are scum??
I'm raising these questions as questions because I can't make a decisiion. Thisbis ained toward Dwmyx,StefanB, VitaminR, haoala, Tajun, and I think I'm missing someone... but what do you guys think we should do? As experienced players, should we go with the weakest link, or what??

really sticks out. It seems like he is asking, trying to get us to "convince" him to join the LoM train, so he has something to fall back on if it goes wrong (ie he flips town). This one

I've noticed that forehead and vitaminR both seem to be falling onto our radar for the same reason: their stance on LOM. Forehead for defending him, vitR for attacking. But we are all pretty split on LOM. We're all asking do we policy lynch our weakest link, or keep searching for a scumbucket.
I think LoM is a weak link and scummy,
But there's another scum to look for. If forehead is him, he might be trying to protect his scummate. Which looks scummy.
so ya, actually. Forehead, you've played with LoM and you told us he was acting weird. So why do you want us off him?
Also: Hi Whiskers!

also bothers me. Partially he seems overly focused on LoM, which it seems he has realized and tried to change, and partially his looking for scum pairings seems a bit premature to me. Not a terrible idea I'll grant, and I've been thinking about it a bit myself, but it is certainly far too early to say anything much about that. Couple these points with his earlier (well documented) scumminess, and I've got a bad feeling coming from him.

[Tajun]

Looking again, I have more:

Okay guys, my vote was totally random

Now for a real vote I'm going with either StefanB, or Demyx, considering how much they passed the ball around in the beginning. It seemed too much like trying to keep the rest of us distracted.

Either way, I agree, we gotta look at more evidence

UNVOTE

VitaminR and Demyx at posts 133 and 134: now we're all on the same page
@haoala : I unvoted so soon because I've never played mafia before where so much deliberation happens on Day1, and right now I don't think anyone stands out as scum.
Also I totally agree on not following advanced seeming / outspoken players.
But Demyx and StefanB have brought up a lot of good points and generally make sense. So I get a feeling that they are either trying to mmislead us because they are mmafia, or are pushing people because they're real pushy. Plus, good ideas are worth listening to.

@VitaminR, post 137: why did you vote StefanB after reading Demyx's reply? That seems pretty random..

First he votes me because I have the most votes, then backs away as soon as he is called on it. Then he says Demyx and StefanB are scummy, and then he says they make a lot of good points, after I say I have a town read from them. He is all over the place, and his recent focus on LoM is especially suspicious with him having been suspected so strongly earlier (jumping aboard the next train away from the spotlight). He's also been the least active poster even including LoM (not that that neccesarily means anything, but it doesn't come off too well). As such,

VOTE: AndroidDreams.

[Tajun]

EBWOP: By all over the place, I mean he takes a stance, sees that it is unpopular, and immediately drops it. Very scummy.

[Tajun]

I know that NOW, I didn't then. when I made the desicion, I was under the impression that, if the scum timed the ivenstigation correctly, would confirm that I was not a cop.

If I knew how it worked, I definately WOULD have claimed cop, avoided the lynch, and taken the NK.

Ok, don't do this to us! False claiming is a VERY bad idea for town players. Aside from potentially bringing out a disasterous counter-claim, it draws protection that would be better used elsewhere and makes it extremely difficult for the town to figure you out. If I were mafia and someone at L-1, heading for a lynch, claimed a PR I would not kill him. I would have the rolecop take a look at him while I had the scum open fire on whomever the most effective townie was, assuming that protection would be going to the person who claimed. So by doing this, you would not only get yourself found out and most likely lynched anyway, you would get one of your best players killed in the process, and confuse the hell out of the town. It is

not

a good idea. Let the town mislynch if need be, but don't add to the problems by misleading your allies.

Tajun, I didn't see it that way. I was willing to think of him as noob town. It is what noob town would do, too. Also, his posts after that seemed a little more coherent than his opening posts. That's why I unvoted.

To be completely honest, I think this might be the case as well. I was mostly curious as to how he would respond to a bit of pressure, alongside a couple of points I was still pondering (Especially the Demyx and StefanB part, which did and still seems a bit weird). His response seems pretty town though.

@AndroidDreams: Prior to reading his gameplay on other forums, I would have agreed with you about Whiskers, but having read a few of his posts when he is confirmed town I think this is just his style. Not to say that he isn't scum mind you, but I think his style here is a null tell. I'm really having a hard time deciding what I think of VitaminR as well. When I have a couple of hours I'll wander through his old games and see if anything, scum or town, matches up. Like I said before, I'm getting very mixed signals from him.

OKay if I was mafia, why would I act like mafia? Then I would be lynched.

I know I said before that I was against a policy lynch, but comments like this are making it really tempting. I am starting to see again what StefanB and Whiskers meant, but I don't think I care any more. If he is town then I would rather we not lynch him, but while there remains a decent chance in my mind that he is scum I am NOT willing to let him win the game by acting like a dimwit.

[Tajun]

Unvote
Vote: StefanB

for this comment:

Whiskers: Will you stop playing like you think your lynch is somethink good!!!!

A lynch on a protownplayer should never be a goal.

So getting yourself lynched is not a good way. Acepting this and thinking it's a good think is not playing to win. Try to losse that aditute. Play as good as you can can and make the mafia nightkill you, if you are a vanilla townie.

You sound quite sure that Whiskers is town here, and the only people who know anything for certain in Day 1 are mafia and our moderator.

And your comments about LoM in post 202

So how do I stand on the LoMwaggon?
Well for me it's to early to lynch. I have nearly zero reads here.
What I think about LoM should be no secret. I think he is not playing the game. His role no one knows. Could be mafia could be town. Imposible to read.
So if I have a strong scumread I will vote that, if not than I will vote LoM near deadline, even if it is the hammer.
I tryed to get him to talk, I tryed to make sense of him, I have given up on him.
I think that should be nothink new for everyone.
It is my head vs my heart. My head is telling me that since LoM is not playing, there is a bigger chance for him to be town, even if his play is marginally better for scum.
My heart tells me that LoM is a headache and I would like to see him gone.

still strike me as off. Your head thinks he is town, but he is impossible to read. And you are willing to vote for him near deadline, but since you don't think he's scum you would be free of any real guilt if he flips town. If LoM is town, I picture that as the perfect scenario for scum: "I think he's town, but I'll lynch him anyway because he's not helping the town. Oh look, he flipped town, I was right."

[Tajun]

Right, I know what he is saying, and I don't even totally disagree with it. My issue is that in one sentence he says LoM is impossible to read, and a few lines down he says he thinks there is a bigger chance he is town. It's a pretty glaring contradiction, IMHO. I am certainly having trouble figuring out what he meant, if it wasn't that.

[Tajun]

@StefanB : I have suspicions of you and Demyx. But that's it. Someone else going after you guys makes me think they are scum and trying to save themselves by putting heat on the big Talkers.
I went back over VitaminR's posts to get some examples of his crowd-leafing behavior, but it was mostly all LoMwagon based hunting, so I take that back.

What bothered me, though was that he voted StefanB on post 137, then Gingy @140, fos forehead7 @159, then back to StefanB @188.
That's a lot of jumping real fast. I've noticed VitaminR is into a faster game then we've been playing, but jumping around like that worries me. Also, he was voting StefanB for some scumtells, gut feeling,

and for being noncommittal

.. anyone else find that ironic?
But now I'm going to switch around and agree with VitR and Tajun that StefanB seems to have his feelings confused (like he wants to come off town while pushing us to lynch his target and can't keep track of it all), combined with my suspicions makes him

undoubtedly scum

UNVOTE
VOTE: STEFANB

Also: I agree with haoala that we should get cracking

Undoubtably scum? Haoala is right, you are scummy. There is no way for townies to know for certain who scum are. And your opening statements are just bizarre, you think StefanB and Demyx are suspicious, but anyone else going after them makes them seem scummy as well? I'm not sure I buy it. It's especially strange that you would suddenly start scumhunting so vigourously after being accused yourself by myself and StefanB in turn, while before you seemed quite happy to watch.

FOS: AndroidDreams.

Can somepony give me a good reason why haoala would not be scum? He's the only one that looks bad to me, with Android being second, and Demyx coming in third. (<-These are gut, since i haven't ISO'd anypony to make a case)

I've got no reason to think Haoala is town, but I've got no reason to think he is scum either. StefanB's vote for him earlier, for being under the radar, is the only minor suspicion I can find against him. Any chance you can explain your suspicions better?

[Tajun]

Tajun: Whiskers is a townread, yes, at last for the moment.
But okay lets play this game.
Whiskers town look at my quote.
Whiskers scum, well shouldn't really play like that either. But if scum is playing to be lynched, I have no problem with it.

About LoM, him beeing a bigger probability of beeing town is just simple math. 6/8 is more than 2/8 (from my point of viev)
I am willing to vote him, if I don't have a scumread or no chance to have my scumread lynched. First makes the chance of him beeing scum bigger. (The more townreads you have the less got it is looking for the nullreads)
Second a lynch on a null, is better than a nolynch. A lynch on a townread would be terrible. (Exection about 1 hour before deadline)
I am also only discusing a potential scenario here. Not one that I am working at.

Also interesting timing. I have voted someone who I was suspicios now, after that came your post. You ignored the fact and the scummy behavior of Android in your post and your next afterwards. Than you fos him with mostly my reasons. Any reason why?

Yup, I actually have a pretty good reasoning here. Up until AndroidDreams' post 255, I have been working under the implicit assumption that our lynch for the day would be most likely LoM. Two players on the potential lynch wagon seemed particularily non-commital to the cause, those being yourself and AndroidDreams. I was hoping to pressure the two of you on your opinions about LoM, in order to force you to take a definite stance on it. Mostly I didn't want us to lynch LoM, have him flip town, and have no info heading into day 2, and therefore knowing what people really thought of him was important.

I left my vote on you while FOS-ing AndroidDreams because I was still quite curious about your response to a bit of pressure, and in particular the line

My head is telling me that since LoM is not playing, there is a bigger chance for him to be town, even if his play is marginally better for scum.

still doesn't make much sense to me. But you seem pretty clear right now that you feel he is a nullread, and I am most likely overthinking that line. I must admit, I have also thought "If LoM is scum, then why the hell isn't he playing better?" But I still feel that overly scummy play is a scumtell, if for no other reason than the fact that someone indifferent about the game will most likely default to roughly obvious behavior. Having heard nothing of import from him, I still remain a little ways back of a cointoss on him.

My FoS on AndroidDreams was fully legit however. Post 255 really came off extremely badly IMHO. Saying that you are undoubtably scum was ludicrous, if not desperate on his part. And switching to you seemed mostly like jumping onto the most convenient train at the time, even moreso than OMGUS to me. Your points about AndroidDreams were only reinforced by post 255, and it's hard to ignore his long history of scumminess. For a while I have been willing to consider it possibly noob town, and that is still a small possibility. It doesn't really fit with his recent play though, and I really don't like his sudden awakening in the presence of a case against him. I am considerably more confident of my scumread on AndroidDreams than I am on LoM now, and I think he is our best choice for a lynch day 1.

Unvote
Vote: AndroidDreams

That's L-2. I'd like to hear from everyone who they think are the most scummy before deadline/lynch.

[Tajun]

43 (42 by the time this is posted) hours to go. I would like to hear from VitaminR if at all possible pre-lynch, so I suggest we wait until about 6 hours before deadline. Don't want to risk a no-lynch, but that should be safe.

I guess I'll follow my own request (and Demyx's lead) and post my thoughts on people.

AndroidDreams:
Pros:
Voting patterns are erratic, whenever accusations are levelled against him he joins a train.
Very little effective scum-hunting.
A lot of OMGUS at StefanB and a strange turnaround on Demyx, seems to be trying to cozy up to a strong townie.
Everything else posted so far as well.

Cons:
Could be newbie behavior as Demyx said, I've seen a lot of flailing pro-townies elsewhere on the Road to Rome.

Whiskers:
Pros:
Mostly detailed above, with a bit of emphasis on being overdefensive.
He seems to want us to lynch him. Bad scum tactic, even worse townie tactic: as a townie, you know one and only one confirmed townie. You shouldn't screw the town over to avoid a self-lynch, but you should always defend yourself to the last.

Cons:
Having read another game in which he was town I can say definitively that his behavior is similar. It makes reads against him almost impossible. Unless he is meta-gaming like a fox.

LoM
Pros:
Massive lurking, general anti-town behaviour. Call it null VI behaviour if you'd like, but I am calling anti-town behaviour scummy, especially in a newbie game.
He's getting on my nerves.

Cons:
Could well be that he didn't like being called the joker/VI and decided we could all fend for ourselves.
If he replaces out, I'll be willing to see.

VitaminR:
Pros:
A lot of not much from him, all told. His arguments against StefanB and forehead7 didn't seem to hold much water in my books.
Have heard almost nothing about AndroidDreams from him, but AndroidDreams did put a vote onto him when there was little to no pressure on him. He seems to be avoiding the topic of AD a bit, actually. If we lynch AndroidDreams and he flips scum, my suspicions against him will be increased considerably.

Cons:
If we lynch AD and he flips town, my suspicions would be subsequently lowered.
He has asked some very good questions.
If LoM is scum, I doubt very much that VitaminR was protecting him (could have easily been suicidal). Sort of WIFOM, but if you think too much everything is. Got to go with my gut here.

forehead7:
Pros:
Hasn't done much at all to help us.
Seems to be going after the easiest targets (LoM, Gingy/Whiskers).
Flying very much under the radar.

Cons:
Strikes me that this is his personality, that he is laid back at least online, and that this is not that unusual.
There's a reason those people are easy targets, it's because they are scummy.

StefanB:
Pros:
I find myself disagreeing with him a lot.
Especially when he goes after me.

Cons:
Although I don't agree with a fair number of his points, they seemed to be logical scumhunting and not illogical straw grasping.
I don't see the nervousness in him that Demyx and VitaminR commented on.

Haoala: Some of his earlier posts seemed to be stating the obvious, but mostly I think he has been helpful. Pro-town in my book, for now.

Demyx: Get out of my head!! Keeps posting what I am thinking ahead of me... scary really. If she is scum, she is doing a fantastic job of it.

[Tajun]

Wow. I'm gone 20 hours and... wow. Where to begin? I suppose welcoming our new players is in order. Welcome!

Well first off

guys, settle down. You're both tunneling WAY too hard.

Agreed in spades. You two both seem townish in my books (Johhog maybe a bit scum/nullish, but definitely up from where he was under LoM's leadership). I'm personally quite glad for the change. On the other hand

The thing here is that because I'm pretty obvtown when I'm town/pretty obvscum when I'm scum, and as I've never been ml'd as town in fifteen games I think I know when a scum is trying to lynch me, especially in a newbie game. And btw you are just failposting now, you say that I'm scummy for something that Whiskers isn't scummy for when he is doing it? Point proven even more.

Guys, Demyx is scum, hiplop is probably town, even if he will look bad tomorrow.

did strike me sour, more so than most of his posts. I must say that his behaviour is a little tough to swallow, but I can see myself saying a good number of those things in his shoes. I'm certainly willing to let him survive the day.

The most peculiar thing? After offering to start coming and defend himself every 4-6 hours, AndroidDreams has been a noshow. Could be he didn't want to claim, as he was concerned that when he did we would have hammered (Probably true). Nothing he or anyone else has said about him has changed my mind. I still say we lynch him today.

Hiplop: I disagree with a few of his reads, but I'd like to see where we stand with AndroidDreams before I make any serious accusations against him. If AD is lynched and he turns scum, I will likely develop a severe case of tunnel vision tomorrow. If he turns town, I'd be far more open to hearing his arguments. I don't want to throw out a potentially major asset of a highly experienced IC without a good reason.

I'm against a no-lynch, but I really don't see a good option B here anywhere.

Edit:

Johhog wrote:And if someone says "Roleclaim now" and your next post is "I'm a townie" that is obviously a vanillaclaim.

FUCKING WRONG.
A townie is an ambiguous, non-specific claim of a town-aligned role. Maybe a VT, but maybe a Doc, or a Cop, or anything else that wins with the town. It's what I use when I'm a Vanilla Townie but don't want to let the scum know it. I don't use it as scum, because I want to claim something specific, so I don't look like I'm keeping my options open later.

However, this has been explained as the PMs going out saying merely "Townie," so I'm willing to let it go.

et all on this point: When I read it, I assumed he was claiming vanilla. I can certainly see how others would not have thought that, but I think those who were talking overly about this were making mountains out of molehills. Let it go.

[Tajun]

I'd like to hear your case on Hiplop. I don't think he's been particularly scummy at all.

I'm against a no-lynch, but I really don't see a good option B here anywhere.

Erm, didn't you just say you were in favor of an AD lynch?

Ah, sorry, that came out wrong. Option A is lynching AD. Option B is hard for me to see.

My case isn't on Hiplop really, so much as his predecessor. A few of the things he did came off scummy in my books. And it's not really a case right now, more of a mild suspicion along with drawing a (possibly nonexistant) connection between him and AD, via quotes like

AndroidDreams doesn't really worry me. It's obviously a bad idea to just follow the most advanced-seeming players, but I can see newbie-town coming out with something like that.

I can talk a little bit about scum tells, if you want, though I don't think AndroidDreams really needs it. He seems to have perfectly legitimate suspicions. Putting a vote on Tajun because he had the most votes was not that bad of an idea. It's good to get a little wagon going early in the game. I mean, that's how you find scum. You put a vote on them, interrogate them, see how they respond. If it feels legitimate, then you look elsewhere.

He seemed very dismissive of anything related to AD. In addition, AD's only vote that wasn't following the crowd was on VitaminR, which I could easily see as attempted distancing from a newbie. I also mentioned this in my wall on everyone from yesterday. Hiplop has taken a very different approach, saying that a lynch on AD would be a very bad move. I disagree, partially because I think AD is the scummiest player, and partially because I would like the info about Hiplop I would gain from his lynch.

[Tajun]

Highly massively unofficial vote count (it has been a lot of shakeup posts, and I don't like confusion):

Whiskers - 4 (forehead7, Johhog, Demyx, AndroidDreams)
AndroidDreams - 3 (StefanB, haoala, Tajun)
Johhog - 1 (hiplop)

Not Voting - 1 (Whiskers)

I think this is all right...

[Tajun]

Well, that complicates matters. Hmm....

First off, if we have a different JK I recommend a counter-claim. With less than 24 hours to go, if there is one out there then AD is scum, and without a claim there is a good chance we will mislynch. I think it is worth losing a JK to an nightkill for a dead scum and no mis-lynch.

Without a counter, I am not sure what to do here. Lynching AndroidDreams isn't off the table as far as I am concerned since I still think he is probably scum, but I doubt that I could get the support for it with his PR claim. I don't like a Whiskers lynch at all, but I would be willing to do so at deadline if absolutely necessary. I'm having trouble getting much of a read on him with his erratic posting and I doubt very much that that is going to change. He's slightly on the town side of null in my opinion. Not a good option.

Johhog seems to think we are going to lynch him, with little reasoning as far as I can tell. I don't get him either. Better option than Whiskers I think, but not great there either.

Otherwise... What does everybody think? I called out AD on his disappearance and he reappears with a power role claim. Not impossible that he was waiting and hoping he wouldn't have to claim, but I still think he is the scummiest person here by a mile. I'll leave my vote where it is for now.

@hiplop: Would it be a good idea for a JK to counterclaim in this situation? My gut says yes, but I have no data to support/contradict that.

[Tajun]

Claiming a PR as scum is extremely popular, for three reasons:
Can bring out a counterclaim, making it easier for your partner.
Can prevent themselves getting lynched.
Can cause the town to mislynch instead. (Kind of only two reasons, I suppose this is a bit redundant).
All three of these things are very good for scum.

More to the point, there is no reason for scum not to claim a PR: As townies, we shouldn't falseclaim because it will give the town very bad information (Ie. he is either his PR or scum) and potentially draw out a disasterous counterclaim, whereas scum thrive on our doubts.

[Tajun]

Yes, I still think we should lynch him. But I'm not in favour of doing so until StefanB and Haoala have a chance to weigh in on his PR claim. If they would like to get off this wagon I would understand. I'd also like to give people a chance to counter claim, and let hiplop weigh in on the theory here. I don't expect him to join the lynch as he was against it even before the PR claim, but I trust him to give us accurate information as the IC.

[Tajun]

Hiplop: I disagree with a few of his reads, but I'd like to see where we stand with AndroidDreams before I make any serious accusations against him. If AD is lynched and he turns scum, I will likely develop a severe case of tunnel vision tomorrow. If he turns town, I'd be far more open to hearing his arguments. I don't want to throw out a potentially major asset of a highly experienced IC without a good reason.

Wait, you think i am scum? why?

Sort of. I think AndroidDreams is scum, and if he is scum I think you are the partner. There are a lot of ifs there. I do think your previous incarnation (VitaminR) was a bit scummy, but I don't feel the scumrays coming from you. Unless of course AD were lynched and turned scum, in which case I would push pretty hard for you to be next.

I agree that JK is the strongest PR we have access to. That's why it would make such a good fakeclaim.

I'll assume that your post on counterclaiming is legit as the IC (even though I generally must question your motives) and withdraw my request for a CC if one is out there. I still think he is the best lynch however, as I don't buy his claim and none of my arguments about him have changed.

[Tajun]

Wow. I can't believe I actually screwed that vote count up . No harm done I suppose, but Whiskers is at L-2 only.

Alright, got to pick one I suppose. Johhog has been obsessed with his own lynch since he came in, even when I still thought AD was an easy choice. He's said a few times that he will get into it day 2, but I'm not entirely sure on him. Also if our IC is to be trusted (A big if ) then his play is out of sorts. I also really don't like his

Oh, and UNVOTE: VitaminR
He isn't scummy at all imo. I just waited for a spot to be open this game, I've read this game all the time. So I don't really need to catch up so much, just give me a hour or so.

followed by claiming that he can't get into the game without a chance to get into day 2. The math doesn't add up. It's also possible he has had to change his reads due to learning that he is mafia.

Not a spectacular case, but I'm more fond of his lynch than I am Whiskers.

Unvote
Vote Johhog

[Tajun]

followed by claiming that he can't get into the game without a chance to get into day 2. The math doesn't add up.

What is your problem here? Can you get a good feeling for the game in two days? If so I'm impressed.

You cannot be serious. You obviously completely missed the point of my post, which was very clearly

Oh, and UNVOTE: VitaminR
He isn't scummy at all imo. I just waited for a spot to be open this game, I've read this game all the time. So I don't really need to catch up so much, just give me a hour or so.

You said explicitly that you didn't need the time to get into it. Your sarcastic response avoiding the point of my accusation completely is noted. I've changed my mind, I'm all for lynching you.

[Tajun]

Oh, by the way,

Ofc, if someone else than Whiskers hammer me that person is immediately suspected. Hammering obvtown isn't good.

good attempt to scare us off the hammer. We're not impressed.

[Tajun]

Lol, fair enough. I do have a pretty serious case of the arrogance going...

It might have been more annoyance, in this case though. You certainly did seem to be intentionally missing the point.

[Tajun]

Be careful. This kind of behaviour is what I warned AD against. ICs have as much chance of being scum as anyone else. I don't like town leaders.

That is fair, but from the article governing IC behaviour

While it is okay to lie as scum, it is NEVER okay to lie in your role as an IC. Never lie about game theory to get a tactical advantage. When you are acting as an IC, try to be as helpful and honest as possible, but when you are acting as scum, be as deceptive as possible.

I think it was clear that I was asking him that question as the IC, and not as a player. As such, I trust his answer to be accurate in this case.

I have this to add to my earlier post 462: if AD is noobscum, I think the chances of him being able to plan the fake claim is low. More credibility for his claim.

That's possible, but on the other hand he was already getting railed reasonably hard at the time that he started dropping hints like that. I don't think it's impossible. And earlier on he said that he thought one of StefanB or Demyx was likely a cop, which is less likely if he has a PR himself. I'm not sold on his claim.

I'll try to get back on here before deadline, but I can't be sure. Fortunately, I think I've said my part. Off to work I go.

[Tajun]

Hmm, a most interesting result...

Well firstly, it looks like I owe AD an apology. If he were scum, no NK is virtually out of the question. If there was another JK, I imagine someone would have developed tunnelvision by now. If there was a doctor, AD would be the obvious choice, and scum would have killed someone else while our protection was busy. So... my bad...

The clear of AD makes me substantially less suspicious of hiplop as well. Most of my suspicions on him were relational, and no longer carry much water. I'll keep an eye on him, but he's back to around neutral. It is of course possible that there is another JK, a doc who didn't protect AD, or that the scum no NK'ed. All pretty low chances though, I think.

Next, we come to the subject of Demyx. Demyx was certainly an obvious choice for an attack, and I am inclined to believe that this was the case with a block by AD. If Demyx was the attacker however, then we get more info as well. In particular, I would be willing to nearly clear Haoala and forehead7, unless we have a doctor (who likely protected AD). In the case of a Demyx team with either of them, it would be highly likely that they would be the ones to send in the kill, being far less likely options for jail. The other three all may have gone with Demyx though, as any of them would have been options for jailing.

So, that leaves the question, where are the scum? With the virtual elimination of three of my top suspects (AD, hiplop, Johhog) I have some serious rethinking to do. A lot of people with a lot more experience than me are saying Whiskers. I don't like it, but only because I see him as nearly neutral, and I think we can do better than that. Assuming for a moment that Demyx is town, process of elimination only leaves haoala, StefanB and forehead7 to consider. I'll give it some thought.

@Whiskers: Please stop advocating your own lynch. It is always,

ALWAYS

a bad call. If you haven't read VI's beginner's guide https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... e_At_Mafia, I strongly recommend it. Be yourself, and don't take everything in it as gospel. But please, play to win as well.

PEdit: Looks better. Wait, that's about me??? Lol, I'll respond in a sec.

[Tajun]

Could be taken as a scum claim. Just pointing it out. (also, softclaiming scum is something you might try to "get away with")

Yeah, I thought someone might say that. Simple fact of the matter is that it is true though, I like being a schemer, and trying to outsmart the majority. I think I will one day make an excellent scum. Not today though.

Unvotes Lom to avoid a policy lynch. Puts pressure on AD for policy.
LOM wasn't apolicy lynch, he wasn't getting lynched then yet. AD wasn't a policy lynch either, but it's from one policy"lynch" to another.

As for this, I can only claim temporary noobsanity. I thought LoM was acting a bit scummy. But I also thought that there was a very plausible explanation (that he was goofing off) and I was somewhat worried that others would see him as scummier than he actually was, and he would be quicklynched. In retrospect, this was probably not a concern, but at the time it seemed sounder to drop my vote on AD, hoping to wake him.

Demyx is Town, AD is scum. Interesting to see what he thinks now. Buddying Demyx, framing AD? AD's Jailkeep of Demyx brings to the fore of everypony's minds that Demyz might in fact be scum.

I've all but cleared AD, but I still maintain that my concerns were justified at the time. As for buddying Demyx, are you trying to imply that we are both scum, or that I am scum and trying to get her (town) on my side? Were I scum, I wouldn't buddy with another scum (unless I was playing one hell of a gambit). I am not sure I follow your logic here.

This turned out to be true-- the first one. lom turned into Johhog, didn't he? Then flipped town. Also, when he had alots of nice Vote-pressure put on him, he did nothing. Not a damn thing. He was a combination of a "joker" like he said in ISO 2, and "in active, because he has lost interest. my vote is useless and he will be replaced." like in ISO 3.
Coming from a scum player, this is a very safe vote and stuff.

Probably true. It was also a safe vote from a town player, semi-random mostly. I didn't have a strong read, and I hoped to do something good with my vote.

PEdit:

That's "Vi," by the way. I hear if you call him "VI" he'll hunt you down and kill you.

Are you sure I can't edit my post, just this once?

@Tajun, you can only possibly have on of each of the PR's, theres no way there are two Jailkeepers lol.

Not what I meant, if someone else is JK then AD is scum.

[Tajun]

Well, this is interesting. haoala really didn't say too much about anyone, looking back through his posts. In posts 226 and 234 it seemed like he may be giving Whiskers a nudge in the right direction, and post 200 looks like a defense to me. Also, if you look back through his posts, he never says much of anything against Whiskers, certainly no more than others around, which makes the exchange

Can somepony give me a good reason why haoala would not be scum? He's the only one that looks bad to me, with Android being second, and Demyx coming in third. (<-These are gut, since i haven't ISO'd anypony to make a case)

No, he just seems mean.
He was mean to me! ;__;
So, nothing really. I'm just feeling Omgussy toward him, and wondered if there was a good reason to vote.
He's been voting around without getting much attention is all-- I guess just the same: He's flying under the radar, sort of.

I apologise if you feel like I've been targetting you thus far. That is not my intention. I'm just trying to help you play better. It's nothing personal, so don't worry about it.

look very bad to me. In hindsight, it looks like Whiskers distancing, and Haoala cutting him off.

Vote: Whiskers

About the modkill: It seems very strange to me. We have to assume that the deleted post (which contained haoala's interpretations of the events of the previous night) carried some hidden message. In other words, haoala had a guilty on someone (by guilty, I mean PR). Since AD was at that point almost confirmed, I doubt very much that he would have encoded a message like "yeah, turns out AD is the JK, who knew" and even if he did, I doubt that VRK would have modkilled him for it. Since it was a post about the protection, I don't see how it could have included any info about a cop. Therefore, I have to assume that he was telling his partner they had a confirmed doc to go after.

Now this can work very well for us. If my analysis is correct, we have a doc and a JK. In principle, the doc will almost certainly protect AD tonight. As such, I think it would be wise to have AD not tell us his jailing until tomorrow, where we can think about it further. If I am right, then the scum will NK our doc tonight to get him out of the way (assuming that AD doesn't throw him or the scum in the slammer) and so we'll go into day 3 with either a dead doc and two confirmed townies, or a living doc and a JK. If it is the former we can get AD to tell us who he is imprisoning N3, and have either a living JK or two confirmed townies going into Lylo/Mylo. If it is the latter, we can continue lynching with two PRs backing us up. Either way, the scum are in a tight spot.

Real quick and kinda disjointed:
There IS a doc
Haoala615 - trying to out the doc

StefanB 649 - I should tell everyone who I'm jailing.
So that the scum knows and can not waste a kill ? That's a pretty good tactic

I'm surprised youguys agreed

I agree that there is a doc, but for different (and actually incompatible) reasons. Hmm. And I think you should keep it to yourself tonight, and tell us the next night. 1 confirmed townie doesn't do much for us, but if they have to kill you and a doc prior to going after 2 confirmed town, the game is won.

PreEdit: We need to kill the scum to win. Jailing is insufficient. And VC is votecount, looking back at who voted for Haoala and who haoala voted for is the next step.

[Tajun]

Ah, it's the little things that make me think you're town, forehead7.

This reads as very, very forced to me. Anyone else getting this feeling?

In fact; Whiskers latest post does have some good points. Tajun really was just parotting others, while making it look like he was adding content, and he pretty much sat on a fence and watched everyone fight after I replaced in. I have a feeling he fooled me.

I suppose this is the case you speak of? First off, I do parrot a bit, but I think I legitimately do add content most of the time when that is the case. Sometimes I would just agree or disagree with a post as well. I don't really think that is scummy, unless that is all that a person does. I thought I brought up some (previously unmentioned) good points on AD and Whiskers, amongst scattered other points. I can link them if you want, but either way you'll have to decide for yourself.

As for your accusation that I fencesat all day, I don't think that case can be made. I was pushing harder than anyone for a lynch of LoM and AD. Granted I was wrong on both counts, and if you want to hold that against me go ahead, but a fencesitter all of yesterday I was not. Calling AD an easy lynch is also pretty strange, being as how you came in and defended him, and LoM would have been (and as it turns out, was) a far easier case.

Saying that I sat on a fence after you replaced in is a bit closer to fact. Frankly, that is because I was on the fence. I didn't like any of the options of lynching Johhog, lynching Whiskers or no lynch. And accusing me of watching everyone fight is just wrong, I work around 11-7 Eastern time, and by the time I get back most of you are offline. I post when I can. If you want to get into a good long argument with me, I'm around anytime from 7:30 to about midnight.

My posts read as forced? I can't really defend myself on this one. All I can suggest is to read them again, with the mindset "Is he scum?" as opposed to "He is scum". Hopefully your reads will change.

A couple of questions for you:
1)Why have you decided Whiskers is clean? Haoala being scum reflected very poorly on Whiskers, IMHO.

2)Why do you think I'm a girl?

[Tajun]

Whiskers wrote:
The other option is that Stefan is a doc and is sure that there is another power role

If StefanB is the doc, why would he care about a cop?
I know you don't want to believe it, but I'm the jailkeeper. Everyone else has already said that the JK should CC, but that won't happen 'cuz it's me.
So again, if StefanB is the doc, why would he want to cop to claim? That would just leave the cop out to get axed, or if I jail the cop, then they won't be able to do their read.

C'mon guys, think this through. If StefanB is a doc, he wrote that
a) to throw the mafia off his trail
b) to lure mafia into a fake cop claim.

I interpreted that post as a doc softclaim. It didn't make much sense otherwise. I wasn't going to say anything, but it's too freaking late anyway, so I might as well. Please don't post any more on this subject.

Saying that I sat on a fence after you replaced in is a bit closer to fact. Frankly, that is because I was on the fence. I didn't like any of the options of lynching Johhog, lynching Whiskers or no lynch.

If you didn't like those options, why didn't you bring up an option you did like?

Haoala being scum reflected very poorly on Whiskers, IMHO.

Could you please elaborate on why? I don't necessarily disagree but I want to hear why you say this.

I did, I recommended that we lynch AD in spite of his claim. Before you call that totally ludicrous, look around the site. A lot of people are in favour of lynching regardless of PR claims, and I thought that I had found scum. If it hadn't been for the no NK, I would still be advocating his lynch. By the time I was sure that wasn't going to happen, it was 8 hours to deadline, and I was getting ready for work. My next choice at the time would probably have been hiplop, and it would have been very very difficult to get the IC lynched coming up on deadline, with a weak case based mostly on feelings and without being there to defend it. I went with the wagon I saw as the better of the two instead, rather than risk a no lynch.

I posted my reasoning in post 663, to summarize:
Haoala was being nicer to Whiskers than most of the town, and especially less critical of him then you, me and StefanB. In that context, the comments

Can somepony give me a good reason why haoala would not be scum? He's the only one that looks bad to me, with Android being second, and Demyx coming in third. (<-These are gut, since i haven't ISO'd anypony to make a case)

No, he just seems mean.
He was mean to me! ;__;
So, nothing really. I'm just feeling Omgussy toward him, and wondered if there was a good reason to vote.
He's been voting around without getting much attention is all-- I guess just the same: He's flying under the radar, sort of.

seem like distancing to me. Of course he was right as it turns out, but for the wrong reasons. If there is anything that I see as scummy, it is being right without a good reason for it. In addition, StefanB's comment about the voting at deadline is correct, it's rare for the two scum to be on the same lynch, unless one of the candidates for lynching is scum. Haoala could just as easily have hammered Whiskers, and that he hit Johhog instead leaves me considerably more suspicious of StefanB, forehead7 and Whiskers. I have a town read on the other two. Although "and wondered if there was a good reason to vote" leaves me doubting my read on him, that's an awfully strange thing to say if you are distancing. Looking at the other comments in context leaves me a little unsure as well.

hiplop: As the IC, how common is it for two scum to be on the same lynch without a good reason? That is, assuming that two people are at L-1 and neither is scum, how common is it for a not yet voting scum to hammer the player his partner is voting for?

[Tajun]

Demyx, it scares me to death.

Lol, good to hear. Keep up the good posting then.

Before I forget. Android dreams. YOU MUST tell us who you are jailkeeping tonight. And you MUST follow through on it. Even if you die, we get a confirmed innocent (most likely, possbility of getting the guy who got killed/mafia),because the jailkeeper has priority over the mafia kill, it comes first.. So tell us now, will help a lot.

Hiplop, why would he tell us now? If it was me I would wait until near deadline eve to choose, in order to choose the best target. And if I was to pick one, it would be the most effective townie we have. In order to make sure that our town leaders are in fact on our side. Right now I would say either you or Demyx would be the best choices, I would be a LOT more comfortable knowing for certain that one of you is town.

Could somebody fully explain to me the case against Forehead? He really seems town to me, just not posting overly because he is a bit bored of the board. As far as I can tell, he has played a reasonable game. It is of course possible that he has intentionally been dropping town tells, but I don't read it that way.

Having reread the thread, I'm going to stick with Whiskers for now. His posting has certainly improved, but I buy him as the best candidate for a lynch.

Unfortunately, I am super busy this week, I have a big presentation on Thursday and will be scattered until then. I'll come on to post if I have time, but no promises. I will definitely be back with more Thursday night.

[Tajun]

Tajun just doesn't post enough. Why is that, Tajun?

Unfortunately, it's a timing issue. I only really have a chance to post between 7:30 and 12 on weeknights, and since people aren't often active at this time there is not too much I can do except for post reads and ask questions. I'd love a good argument actually, but that's more of a real time thing.

I'm not as good as cleared, people just think I'm town. And I'm not terribly inclined to argue with that.

Yeah, this is why I would really like AD to jail you. I have a hard time to picture you as scum, but I've been wrong before, and you're a pretty serious town leader. Could be you have us all chasing our tails. Frankly, I think you're town because you are the polar opposite of haoala, but it could just be that you are far better at fitting in than him.

I'm afraid all this planning is simple speculation at this point. If there is a cop, then yes, claim, but I doubt very much that that is the case. A docclaim would be silly, tantamount to suicide at this point. I think it's more likely that we have a doc than a cop, but I'm not certain that we have either. With a doc there is no certain path to victory, I've thought it through.

Yeah, they probably do. Well, maybe. Unless they are like me, and too stoopid to understand that there was a coded text in a post and read what it said. I don't even know what coded text looks like.

There are any number of possibilities, but most likely it was hiding in plain sight. Like scum saying "I think there is a doc, that's why there was no kill" could mean "My rolecop ability found a doc, let's lynch him." Probably a bit more subtly, but you get the drift. No one other than scum would notice it, and it could easily pass information to the other scum. Of course it could have also been something agreed upon, like "If my first post after night is 5 lines long I hit a doc, 6 is JK, 7 is cop and 8 is VT" in which case no amount of looking at the posts would garner us any information, unless we know the code. I doubt that they'de do this though, that is practically begging for a modkill.

Forehead that is not even remotly what happened. I just tryed to use somethink from an arsenal that many scumhunters used and it pointed in your direction.
Whiskers: Why does it scare you if people don't see you as bad player?????????
I would advise against jailing Demyx again, there is not much pointing at Demyxscum.
I would rather see AD jk someone that he is suspicios of or who he sees in the neutral catagory.
For now

Unvote:

How about a little test, at the moment my vote would go to Hiplop or Whiskers. Why shouldn't I vote you or why should I vote the other one?

The problem with this is that if there is no NK, it could easily just be scum setting us up to mislynch the next night. That is what I would do. Personally I would be a lot happier knowing for sure that our big guns aren't in fact pointed at our own heads.

Furthermore, Tajun needs to talk more since he COULD be scum, but he rides so low I miss him for the crowd.

Any of us could be scum, Whiskers. I have some reads on people, but so far my big reads are 0 for 3 (assuming of course that we believe AD). I don't like a Demyx, StefenB, AD or hiplop lynch tonight, for various reasons (not all having to do with scumminess). It is quite possible that one of them is scum, but I think Demyx and hiplop are the most effective hunters here too. Not an easy choice all around.

[Tajun]

I'm not sure why this means I should be jailed, but hey, if AD wants to go for it.

I'd like to know once and for all that you aren't leading us off a cliff. Same with hiplop, essentially. A lot of my reads have been wrong, and I would like very much to know who to trust. I don't think I would get nearly as much out of having a lot of the town cleared, more just one less spot to lay suspicion. With one of you two cleared, it would be a lot easier to read your suspicions without having them conflicting with my own.

Uh, considering Haoala did get modkilled... then yes, obviously he did do something that was begging for a modkill. Very likely a code of the sort you just said. Personally I think it has to do with the bolded words in Haoala's posts, but that's pure speculation.

Could be, but I just don't think he would risk that. It is very explicitly against the rules, and I'm pretty sure that the moderator has access to the scum chats. I think it much more likely that he tried to get away with playing just inside the rules, saying something like "I'm fairly sure we have a second power role" to mean "The person I ID'ed was a power role, let's kill him". Still against the rules and worthy of a modkill, but seems more like the kind of a thing that scum might try to get away with.

I would like to hear the reasons why you don't like those three lynches, and your top scum read, please.

I don't like the lynch on you or hiplop because I think the town would be better off jailing you in an attempt to determine your alignment, then listening to what you have to say if you turn out to be innocent. I like a lot of both of your scumhunting, and I think the town would be better off with you than without you. That said, you're both potential scum as well; the beginning of today did not reflect well on you, and VitaminR/hiplop has been giving me the heeby-jeebies all forum long. I don't like the lynch on AD because I believe his claim.

My top scum read currently sits with my vote, on Whiskers. His posting has improved, but overall that does not tell me much, as the only serious case he has made all day was against me, which I know to be wrong (and no, I don't expect you to take my word for it). Looking back at the evidence: his interactions with haoala, Gingy's scumminess, Gingy and haoala not breathing a word about each other, his dancing with the idea of killing a PR late yesterday, and haoala's vote all point in one direction. It's not damning evidence, but he is easily my top pick.

Second would have to be hiplop; this one is more of a gut feel. There have been a couple of times when he did things that struck me as scummy, but really his posting (and VitaminR's posting) overall just seems a little off. Also why I would like to see him imprisoned, I'd like to know whether my gut is worth listening to.

[Tajun]

I don't think I'm leading anyone, considering nobody seems to be blindly following my reasoning. At least not today. If you're concerned about being lead, just don't sheep anyone. Come to your own conclusions and share them with the rest of us. Then maybe you will be the leader.

Blindly following? I certainly hope not... That's really not what being a leader is in a game like this. You and hiplop are framing the discussion. As far as I can tell, the two of you have the best ideas and are the most experienced. And in my eyes, there is a decent chance one of you is scum. I'd like to know you are not. That's all I'm saying.

Hm, Question: Tajun, if we had a VIG (town aligned killer, kills baddies and never fraids of anything) would you support him killing me? And just clarifying: You think I'm scum, but you don't want me dead in case you're wrong? Interesting.

No, definitely not. I might be in favour of one of the less vocal townies getting hit, but right now I think you and Demyx are very key to the town, even if one of you is scum. Imagine this scenario for a sec: You and Demyx are both town. We lynch one of you, AD does not jail the other because he thinks they are town, and the second is nightkilled. Frankly, the town would be in very serious trouble. AD and forehead are sporadic posters, Whiskers has a habit of not making a tonne of sense, a lot of people think Stefen may be scum (and he doesn't post too much either, although more than some) and I'm on my first game of mafia. I don't see it going well. I'd like one of you two jailed, that way we either have a confirmed town and at most one dead key player, or two living key players who may still be scum. I'll reassess that decision tomorrow, but for now I want you two alive.

Though I do also think Forehead and Tajun are good suspects for being lurkfaces.

Lurkface? Lol, I'll try to get on more. Yesterday was definitely no good, but my work should be clearing up a bit now. Seriously though, I can only come on nights and weekends, but I'll see what I can do.

Demyx: So you point that out and ignore the rest of my posts where you can read my case on Whiskers, and the post before. I just wanted to know what his/her great superplan was. And I was disappointed. So derp.
Don't lynch before AD posts his plan for tonight. (You can make a plan now and chance it before we go into night)
A massclaim is imho only forcing the powerrole to claim. I don't like forcing people on our site.
I also take ofence that I haven't been trying this game. You can say I played like shit, etc, but not trying is a joke.
Since I am at L-1, you will learn that I am a normal VT.

Now this is interesting... Firstly, I agree with Demyx that you were very testy about that. Secondly, I don't think anyone was planning on quickhammering you. The fact that you claimed without major pressure makes me think that you saw that AD got town points for doing the same, and decided to join in. Thirdly, I had you pegged as a doc. If you're claiming Vanilla, I withdraw my objection to your lynch.
However, post 778 and 785 read as legit anger, and you're a null/leaning slightly scum read for me now. I still think we can do better.

[Tajun]

As a clarification, are you saying that it was scummy for me to label StefanB null leaning scum, possibly because I am hedging my bets? If that is the case, that is a fair argument, which I would rebut by saying that I am more in favour of your lynch than StefanB, and he would probably be my third choice for scummiest, second or third for a lynch.

[Tajun]

I still say Whiskers is the best candidate. Reading his posts I can tell that he is improving his game, but that only tells me that he is improving, not that he is getting townier. His masterplan was ill-advised at best, and I don't fault StefanB for saying so. I've made most of my case on Whiskers previously. To summarize in extreme brevity: Gingy, interactions with haoala, Whiskers' voting near deadline, haoala's voting at deadline, jumping on bandwagons, etc. The one thing I should probably expand on is his voting on AD after the claim: I was confident of my read on him, and I left my vote there to reflect that. Whiskers jumped off immediately, then back on after I said I was staying there, almost like he was saying "Wait, I can do that?" Very scummy, although he may have simply liked that better than getting lynched himself.

The other choice that I would consider before him would be forehead. I don't have much of a read on him, although what I have seen seems town. He is just not really doing much, and if he is scum I would hate to let him fly under the radar to a victory. I'd probably choose StefanB over him for a lynch if today (real time) was deadline, but if he keeps up the disappearing act every time we take the pressure off, I'll seriouly consider it.

[Tajun]

Are you talking about my statement? Because it was almost the exact opposite, I feel like he is town right now, but I might be willing to take him out if he keeps disappearing. Two reasons: It is anti-town (ie not helping us) and it is scummy. That said, I prefer Whiskers, for reasons that have to do with logic and not policy.

[Tajun]

Tajun, I'm afraid I have to push against my lynch right now.

Lol I would hope so. I'm not set on lynching you yet, the day is still young. You're certainly my top choice right now, but that may change.

You said you would consider forehead7 BEFORE me (or just before StefanB?)

Firstgame~noobscum: Protecting your partner. Casting mild suspicion on him. Going for next easiest lynch.

Actually, those are all things proscum would do too. .__. Now I"m confused.

When I wrote that I was referring to StefanB. However, I will consider forehead7 based on what he does over the course of this day, potentially above either of you.

Once again I'm not quite sure what you mean (on your second points). Are you trying to say that someone was protecting haoala while casting mild suspicion on him, or that haoala was protecting someone? I too am confused. By Firstgame~noobscum, are you referring to me? Because I don't think I ever cast mild suspicion on haoala. Actually, that sounds like you, to be honest.

Preedit:

I thought there was areason we weren't lynching forehead7 though. I seriously don't remember it right now.

Nothing concrete, personally I am just not convinced he is scum.

Holy shit, why didn't you lynch this guy?

He meant when he was playing scum. I doubt very much that he meant that in general. Also, this guy is you now, in case there is confusion.

[Tajun]

This actually makes me feel a lot better. I like Tunnelers almost less than I like Lurkers. Makes me Rage.

Yeah, I know how you feel. Sorry if I keep making the same case against you, I realize that I haven't changed my tune in a few posts, but people keep asking. I'm looking elsewhere as well, count on it.

My second points are stuff I gleamed when I read the guide to playing scum. Yes I was referring to you-- it's your first game, right? Possible you're noobscum. You cast mild suspicion on him when you said he was null-leaning scum. I pointed that out in the first place (because that's the exact wording used in the scum-guide). Also, you "protected" him by saying that you have one or maybe even two stronger scum reads when there is only one possible scum left. If you have your way (as scum, of course), We lynch me, we lynch forehead7, and by that time we're in lylo(, aren't we?).

Right... I guess that makes sense, but you seemed to imply earlier that I was protecting my scumbuddy, which doesn't make any sense.

Yeah, but I thought there was some reason, like, "Oh, he tunneled on lom and Johhog believed he was town because he was so persistant" or something like that.

Could be. I feel like he is town because he seems to be doing exactly what I expect him to. Which is, unfortunately, not much. He said he was not a fan of the length of the days, and that it was a bit... ah, I'll quote it:

I'm not gonna lie, the long deadlines are making me feel less excited by this game. I'm not gonna shit on it though, it's the way you(pl) play games over here and I joined in. But if I am to join another game, I'd look(if there is an option) to join a game that has shorter deadlines, probably 2 or 3 days ea.

Everything about him seems honest to me. His posts read like the truth. I only have a weak read on him however, because he doesn't do too much, and some of his behaviour is anti-town, if not scummy.

PreEdit:

Oh man, yeah, I forgot to respond to AndroidDreams on that. I think AD really needs to tell us who they're jailing tonight. If they don't, the scum is likely to just go for killing AD and the knowledge will die with him. If he does, even if he dies, we'll have a confirmed town (the guy he jailed), and that's going to be really important.

Definitely. Whomever you choose, we will benefit from the knowledge. If StefanB is not a doc, I am a lot less certain that we have one. If not, then unless you pick the scum, you die tonight and take your knowledge with you. Not worth it for a potential kill block.

[Tajun]

Alright, for those of you keeping score at home, that puts

StefanB back up to L-1

. I'd like to hear from everyone before the day ends. We still have lots of time for discussion, and I'm not convinced that he is our best choice.

Do we wanna take votes on who to jail?

Could do, but it really is up to you. If you are convinced that Demyx and I are town, then there is no real point in jailing us, other than protection. I guess maybe hiplop? He'll be my vote if that is how you decide it. Don't be afraid to make the call yourself though.

PreEdit:

I vote Hiplop for jailing. My reasoning is we want to clear someone who is active and knows what they're doing, and Hiplop is the most experienced out of all of us. And hey, if he turns out to be the scum, cool beans.

Bingo.

[Tajun]

Doesn't that idea assume that AD doesn't tell us who he is JKing? Scum won't attack a person if they know that he is in jail. In which case, I don't like the plan.

[Tajun]

But

Frankly, I'd Jailkeep somepony who was unlikely to get the NK. If you jail a player who is likely to be targetted for the NK, and POP, there is no NK, then that player is either scum (who was roleblocked) or town (who was protected). It's been my experience that scum will attack whomever regardless of possible protection. So I'd go for someone in the middle of the road. If there is no nightkill, that's cool, you've foun d your second scum. If there is a nightkill, that's alright too, it means we have a confimed townie.

His entire plan is based on the theory that we gain no information from a no NK if we jail a player who is likely to be targetted for the NK. But if AD tells us who he will jail, there is no danger of this. The scum will either want to kill someone, and thus avoid the jailed player, or no NK in order to frame him/her. This is true whether the player is key to the town or not.

I really think we should clear someone to lead us, and not a mid tier townie. Either we get a key player cleared, or we get another night with no NK. Whiskers' way, either we get a mid tier player cleared or a no NK. Frankly I don't see what the advantage is.

[Tajun]

Gotta catch up
But I'm gonna jail Tajun

Alright, not a terrible choice. If we had jailed hiplop and confirmed him, it would quite likely have lead to my mislynch anyway, so I guess it'll work. Suddenly I find myself hoping that the mafia kill one of you...

I really don't get why people keep giving up on this game... Johhog pretty much got himself lynched last night doing the exact same thing. I refuse to see this giving up as scummy again, but it is certainly not helping matters. I don't see a spectacular case on StefanB by any means. I guess he could be scum though.

[Tajun]

Actually, rereading forehead's posts he did say that he was studying for exams as well atp. I won't hold his disappearance against him, that's a pretty legit excuse.

I really don't read it that way. Anger about getting voted is natural, some people respond with cool reasoned arguments against it, others with tantrums. I think that has more to do with the personality of the player than the role. Getting mad about people casting vague suspicions your way is very scummy, but is getting frustrated at L-1? I don't see it.

[Tajun]

I just reread StefanB's posts, and I really think he is town. I don't buy this lynch, not one bit. He's not flying under the radar and his posts have generally made a lot of sense. Demyx, your case seems to be heavily riding on the fact that he asked hiplop and Whiskers to fight it out, which honestly seems to me like the kind of thing that scum would avoid like the plague. It is possible that it was a screwup and that he is scum, but that isn't how I read this.

Off-topic, How do you like my new avatar?

It fills me with a sense of dread and foreboding that I haven't felt since my journey to Mordor. Also reminds me of planet unicorn.

[Tajun]

Read them all. I'm going person by person, hopefully I can get a new lead. I don't like this lynch but I don't see four semi-convinced townsfolk changing their minds without a good reason. Maybe I'll find one, or maybe not, we shall see.

[Tajun]

Tajun has called some of his mistakes towntells. He is perhabs better to list them.

Alright, here goes. I read him as somewhat disinterested town. His tunneling on LoM was fairly reasonable at the time from that perspective. If you read his posts, he starts off not bad and tails off a bit as day 1 goes on. Then coming up on deadline (when things get interesting) he is back at full force. This reads to me as boredom and not scumminess, he sticks his neck out a few times over the course of the day. A scum move would be to keep up a fairly low content level throughout, to keep off the radar, or a high content level to convince people you are town. Forehead on the other hand is up and down.

Also a couple of people have said that forgetting things is scummy, because scum don't need to keep track of things, they already know the truth. I would agree that skimming is scummy, but losing track of who just voted for you seems more townlike than scummy. I picture scum looking at their posts and polishing them, making sure they have everything straight, to avoid a monumental screw up. Townies on the other hand I picture posting what they are thinking. I don't read a miss like that as being due to scummy skimming, I read it as being due to lack of interest.

All told, it's not a master case, but a rather weak town read that I have on him.

PreEdit: I must admit Whiskers, your repeated willingness to go with any wagon that is not your own is troubling. Since it is within your meta, I won't call it scummy, but it certainly makes me more in favour of your lynch.

[Tajun]

Just watch the encoded text! It could be considered cryptic I believe.

Foreheads latest post seems to read as pretty genuine to me.. I can kind of understand the questionable antics by him now. I could just be being fooled, but I'm suddenly less content with a Forehead lynch. I won't diminish a case, but the current one on him seems kind of flat now that I think about it.

I really, really don't want StefanB lynched, but no one else is able to share my reasoning at this moment :\

The only people who IMO I would support dying right now would be Tajun and Whiskers, Tajun is being jailed tonight. So naturally I want whiskers dead.

VOTE: Whiskers I think I've given you an easy ride this game. I have been defending far too much and I think its allowed me to cloud my vision on you. Your reaction to the modkill was pretty similar to foreheads, and yet you were after him for it. The "coaching" by Haoala makes a lot of sense; it was discreet enough to be scum motivated, and now that hes confscum, you're not looking the best.

Hmm, find myself disagreeing with you again here. Foreheads defense isn't bad, but that is easy enough to fake. I thought that the case put forth against him was pretty reasonable all told, enough to make me think he is quite possibly our second hit. Looking at his interaction with haoala is pretty null as haoala didn't really leave us a lot to go on. He did ask forehead about LoM a few times, which could be pitching him easy questions to hit, but all told I am just as inclined to think it was haoala posting for the sake of it. I'll reserve judgement for now, but I think he might well be the one.

Whiskers is a lot tougher to call. What do you mean by "have been defending too much"? Do you mean defending Whiskers, defending others or defending yourself? One thing in Whiskers' favour is that I don't think he is likely to be playing us by intentionally playing his meta. I wish I had a game or two that he was mafia to compare to.

What do you mean by the StefanB part? I agree that he is probably town. He is clearly not a PR, as he claimed VT, and you were the one who just called his case flat, so I doubt that you want him alive as a master scumhunter (although he seems to be pretty decent at it to me). I don't follow how sure you are of him though.

I am also curious what your case against me is all about, but I guess I will be cleared/framed soon enough, so it doesn't matter too much.

I think ISO's are good when you get a scumflip, and you want to analyse what they have said, or you think you have found scum and you want to make a case. For actual scumhunting, I feel a good reread of the thread is in order. Obviously that is a bit more work, but the danger of an ISO is confirmation bias. If you read through someones posts in isolation, thinking that this person is likely scum, then you are guaranteed to find things to support your theory. Try it on anyone, in pretty much any thread. Same works if you think someone is probably town. You really need to look at everyone and decide who is the most scummy, and not at one person at a time and decide if they are scummy.

[Tajun]

I don/'t know about here (I've never had a mafia pm), but in some games the mafia can talk in the QT before Day 1-- in other words, before enough players confirm to start the game.

Don't think it is a big deal anyway though. Would the mafia really say to his partner, "Hey, let's not be on any of the same L-1 bandwagons today, okay?" If it's a standard scum tactic, the players don't need to point it out to each other.

StefanB has suddenly come in and been fantastic. Doesn't feel like the normal flailing though, because he has valid point and material.

The real question is, though:

Forehead7, can you retaliate to this?

You've never had a mafia pm? Earlier you stated

I'm working on it. So far the only time you'll see me NOT playing VI is when i'm surviving until the end of the game as scum.

I'm trying to change my playstyle, I hate getting lynched Day 1/.

How did you play scum without a PM? On a related note, copies of the possible PM's were posted on page 1, and are worth looking at.

I don't know that it is really a tactic, so much as something that happens unintentionally. Being on a lot of the same votes tends to get noticed and lynching town makes everyone on the wagon look a bit worse, although not significantly all by itself. Scum will try to get their targets lynched while minimizing damage to themselves, and might overcompensate by not voting together at all.

I'm not sure I like the wording "retaliate", it makes it sound like going after StefanB is his only option. Respond might be a better choice.

StefanB: Good points on the vote count, those are my top two suspects anyway, and it's certainly something to take note of. I think it is worth pointing out that Whiskers has now 3 times put someone (all nearly confirmed townies) to L-1, which makes me awfully suspicious of him as well now.

Hiplop: You said you "have been defending far too much" with regard to Whiskers, and I am curious what you meant.

PreEdit:

Haoala's read is pretty simple, he posted enough but didn't really stand out as either, certainly not the most town or most scum. I'd be surprised if anyone seriously tried to claim they had him pegged as the scum.

This is not untrue, but the way you say it sounds a little bit desperate. Also your comments on the votecount seem designed to deflect attention rather than to help. I'm having trouble buying your defense here.

[Tajun]

Well, on that point we certainly agree. At the very least they are open to interpretation. Do you like StefanB as the scum again/still then?

[Tajun]

Alright, here goes Whiskers case 101.
-Begins pre-Whiskers, with Gingy. He was certainly somewhat scummy, although there are other explanations for his behavior
-When Whiskers came in, several of us were quite critical of his playstyle. Haoala was not one of them, at least not to any great degree. As such, when Whiskers posted

No, he just seems mean.
He was mean to me! ;__;
So, nothing really. I'm just feeling Omgussy toward him, and wondered if there was a good reason to vote.
He's been voting around without getting much attention is all-- I guess just the same: He's flying under the radar, sort of.

after asking if there was a good reason to vote haoala, and haoala apologized, it strikes me now (knowing haoala is scum) that this was an attempt to distance by Whiskers, lacking a good reason for his suspicion. In addition, Whiskers wrote

Nah, Haoala, I was being a little silly here-- "internet traffic gets cut in half the moment they invent the special color that means sarcastic"

That you appologized and posted stuff pretty much removes my baseless suspicion on you-- Nice to see you have a soft side; Townies are human, Mafia can afford to be robots.

Not a good thing to say if they are both scum, but I wouldn't rule it out for newb scum.
Whiskers is one of the three remaining players who, if they are scum, would explain why haoala hammered Johhog instead of Whiskers (the other two being forehead and StefanB). There are of course other explanations for this as well.
Whiskers' voting near deadline was sketchy. After AD claimed, he unvoted, then revoted when I said I was still up for his lynch. This reads to me as him not wanting to get his hands dirty with killing a PR, but deciding after my statement that he might just get away with it after all.
He has also been on nearly every major wagon, and has put 3 people who are now prob/def town to L-1.
Any number of his other posts could be interpreted as scummy, but they are mostly within his meta.

All told, it is a very circumstantial case, with a lot of points that are subject to a great deal of interpretation. He might well be scum, but at this point, I am more inclined to go with a forehead lynch. I'll decide after forehead has finished his exams and has a chance to get back into it. They are my two picks right now.

On another note, hiplop has ceased to trigger my scumdar as well. Could be he is better at fitting in than I give him credit for, but for now he is back up to neutral/town.

There's a case on me?

Anyway, Tajun, I have had a mafia role PM on

other forums

, but never here. (as in, "I don't know about

here

(I've never had a mafia role pm), but...")

Ah, gotcha. Believe it or not that wasn't an accusation on my part, but rather legitimate confusion. Sorry if it came off as harsh.

[Tajun]

Not sure how much that means, given that a lot of us have been on L-1 wagons for various reasons.

What I meant was he put Johhog, AD, and Johhog again to L-1, as in he placed the 4th vote. Whether this is scummy or not I don't know. Hiplop, as the IC, what is the verdict on this in the current meta?

Good good good, glad to see we can wait for forehead7. Yeah, my meta makes everything I do or say drip, saturated with WIFOM. Did you make a case on forehead7 like this yet? Could you give me a post #?

Nope, I have voiced a few suspicions, but the meat of the case was posted by StefanB and Demyx. My suspicions are mostly related to his response to their case, it didn't sound genuine to me. Rather than "I'm not scum, but I think (Person X) is" it sounded more like "I'm no scummier than the rest of you, and your investigative techniques are flawed." He's not wrong that vote count analysis can be flawed or taken too heavily, but this is

extremely

suspicious coming from the player who said

I don't really have any suspicions at the moment, I tend to work by voting patterns so the longer deadlines are favorable (for me). Bit too early for me to go after anybody with any real conviction.

as well as

It was more to show that the voting patterns weren't of any use, or certainly have to be taken with a pinch of salt.

In fact, I can't let that go. If you were telling the truth then, then you like VC analysis just fine except when it points at you.

Unvote
Vote: forehead7

[Tajun]

Of course, if there is no nightkill, we lynch Tajun, the last scum, as AD blocked him from making the kill (don't bother with the WIFOM).
If there is a non-AD kill, we should PROBABLY lynch him, as he's likely a bluffing scum. If he's abluffing scum that is willing to gamble and give up the nightkill, we get an extra phase.

Alright, first off: are you saying that all that the scum has to do is to no NK to get me lynched and send us to mylo? Bad idea Whiskers. If there is no NK, then you should jail me again and lynch the next most scummy person. If I am scum then I am screwed at this point anyway, so we might as well maximize our odds under the assumption that I am town. There are a few reasons that there could be no NK tonight, primarily if we have a doc who protects AD or the scum decides to frame me (and under your gameplan send us to mylo).

I don't really understand what you are talking about with the second part. Are you saying that we should lynch AD if someone other than AD dies? That is an even worse idea. If he is scum he can confirm one townie per night, and we definitely have a PR elsewhere, so we should win. If he is a JK, he won't die if the scum think we have a doc. ESPECIALLY if they think they can lynch him tomorrow by killing someone else tonight.

I have absolutely no idea what you mean with the bluffing part. What extra phase?

If what StefanB says is correct, then we still have 2 lynches and one night left. We lynch StefanB, if he flips town and we go into night, Tajun (a publicly confirmed townie) will be NKed, leaving hiplop, Demyx, and I as publicly un-conf town. I guess that's lylo? What do you think?

If there is no second PR, this makes a bit of sense. We should have 3 lynches total and one confirmed town assuming that the scum kill every night. Our odds are pretty good. Obviously those odds go up if there is a second PR.

I like a lynch on either one-- I'd like to lynch forehead7 because I think he's town (conf. him)

Say what? This is just ludicrous. If you think someone is town, you don't lynch them. Just no.

Quite near the deadline, just throws his scumbuddy's name into the mix of definitely not lynch candidates. Didn't add AndroidDreams in though, despite him claiming a PR.

The first part is a decent point, but there wasn't much suspicion of haoala at the time. The second part is severely flawed since this was prior to AD claiming when many of us still wanted to lynch AD.

Whiskers or forehead, either would be decent lynches IMHO.

[Tajun]

What? Why would the scum risk a no-kill and get you lynched, when they could kill, AND get a townie lynched, putting us in LYLO, and NOT giving us the option of nolynching?

What I am saying is that if you commit to lynching me tomorrow if the scum no NK, then you give them a damn good reason to no NK: it is a minimum risk way of getting us to MYLO. If they kill it clears me, leaving us with 5 people, one of whom is guaranteed town (two nights left). If they don't kill then you lynch me tomorrow, leaving us at 4 people with one confirmed town (assuming we don't jail the scum).

And you're saying, if there is no NK, we should keep jailing you, but not entertain the idea that you might be scum?
If you ARE scum, no matter how "screwed you are," if we just keep jailing you and lynching the "next most scummy person," eventually we'll lynch enough townies that it's 1:1 and we lose.

Obviously no Whiskers. I am saying that there are several possible reasons for a no NK tomorrow. I believe that the scum would happily throw away one NK in order to frame me to get us to MYLO with little risk and no additional nights. I doubt very much that they would throw away two NKs to frame me twice, giving us an extra risk free night to kill/jail one of them properly. If there are two no NK nights, then by all means lynch me. I don't think that is going to happen. If you commit to killing me after one then you seal my fate, they are almost guaranteed to frame me.

Buckets and buckets of WIFOM here, we both know they're there, I'm choosing to ignore them, instead of make a big deal over them (no need to make a big deal over them, since we ALL KNOW THEY'RE THERE and you DON'T NEED TO PROVE IT TO ANYPONY.)

Call it what you want. I call it logic.

Um, if he is scum, he can confirm one townie per night by killing them? Is that what you mean? Also, if a doc protects him, there will be no NK-- ah, therefore getting you lynched. Okay. I think it's likely that we have a doc in the setup, so, I am making a note and taking it into consideration. (No Kill could be doc-save, not Tajun-scum.)
However, you are adding a bunch of WIFOM into the situation, and if there is a nightkill, his flip will confirm you.

There are two (three sort of) possibilities.
1)AD is the JK. In this case, he can confirm one townie per night if the scum kill, by jailing them. This is most likely the current scenario.
2)AD is scum. In this case whomever he says he jailed is town. Because he is the scum. I doubt very much this is the case, but it still works.
3)AD is town, but not the JK. In this case I will haunt his nightmares after I die. But he can't confirm townies.
Assuming it is not 3, he is a psuedo-cop.

Yeah... not really. If we have a Cop, maybe. If we have a doc, then it doesn't matter-- if we have a doc, then it just confuses the fuck out of everything and we can't confirm AD as Jailkeeper, nor any other player as town (JKed a player? If there's still a nightkill he's conftown. If there is no nightkill (more likely no nightkill, if Doc), then He's a wifom town/scum.
tl;dr, Cop makes us win, VT allows us to win, Doc just fucks us.

If we have a cop, this game is all but over. If we have a doc he protects AD and in order to kill AD they need to get the doc first. This gives AD an extra night to confirm a townie, helping us significantly.

Hang on a second, though. If StefanB flips town, I will still feel lost. Sorry. My mind is full of fuck right now. I think it's more likely that forehead7 is town than it is that StefanB is scum. I just want what I expect to be confirmed as true.

Trust me on this. You want to lynch the person you think is most likely scum. If that is StefanB then do so. You can adjust what you think tomorrow, but killing a townie that you think is scum is better than killing a townie that you think is town. Well, not really, but you will screw it up less often if you go for the scummiest person.

[Tajun]

I have a couple of questions for All the remaining players:
1, Would my town-flip reveal any useful information right now?
2, Does Demyx have a legitimate reason to be inactive? for a while I thought she was on V/LA, but I lloked brifly at her ISO and didn't find it.

1) To me, probably not. I've been on and off your case, and I imagine the scum is probably the same. Tough to make many judgements based on that.
2) I think so, she said she was going to try to get more work done this week. I assume she is simply busier than usual.

Okay, throw out that plan.

However, if we have three days and two nights (assuming a lynch and NK each phase) as of now, then:

7 players: AD, Demyx, forehead7, hiplop, StefanB, Tajun, Whiskers.
D-3 (toDay): Lynch, oh, say, forehead7.
N-2: JK you. No NK.
D-2: Lynch somepony else. Likely StefanB.
N-1: JK you. No NK.
D-1: Lynch you.
N-0: NK hiplop.

Now there's 3 players, and we're in LyLo. ...Is this better? I guess we've gained a whole day to sling mud at each other. But we end up in the same situation.

I just thought of something and I'll be right back.

I think so, yes. We are comparing this with
D-3 (toDay): Lynch, oh, say, forehead7.
N-2: JK me. No NK.
D-2: Lynch me.
N-1: JK someone, someone dies.
Now at 4 players and in MyLo, with one confirmed. The difference is that now we have only killed off one scum read instead of two. In addition, we have four people around instead of 3, making the job much more difficult for the remaining town (instead of 1 confimed and 2 unknowns, 1 confirmed and 3 unknowns).

[Tajun]

I don't really understand what you are talking about with the second part. Are you saying that we should lynch AD if someone other than AD dies? That is an even worse idea. If he is scum he can confirm one townie per night, and we definitely have a PR elsewhere, so we should win. If he is a JK, he won't die if the scum think we have a doc. ESPECIALLY if they think they can lynch him tomorrow by killing someone else tonight.

Wait, where did you get that we definitely have another PR? This could be taken as a scumslip, as far as I know, there hasnt been anything to confirm a Doc, and theres no way to confirm a cop.

No, not what I am saying. I am saying that "If he (AD) is scum" then we have a PR somewhere, since we have at least one. If he is a JK, there is no way to know.

Tajun, if you were the doc, would you claim now? Not asking you to do so, just asking you if you would, were you the doc.

Knowing that you're about to be JKed, would you claim now?

Not going to say, and please stop asking about docs. The more we talk about it the more info the scum get on our PRs. It's worth noting that if I was scum I would probably claim doc at this point.

Anyway, Haoala was pretty certain that there was a doc-- I assume that means he didn't try to kill Demyx (the player you jailkept), but instead you (and you were doc-tected).

Where do you get this from?

All of this doc questioning has lit up my scumdar like a flare. I am willing to hammer Whiskers.
@AndroidDreams: When are you leaving exactly? That is, if I hammer tomorrow afternoon and VRK gets it that evening, could you send in your night action before you go?

@Vel-Rahn Koon: Have you decided whether AD can send in his night action before he leaves/before night begins? If not, when will you be available to send the game to night, in the event that we do hammer tomorrow?

[Tajun]

I suppose that is true. In that case, if everything works out (VRK says he can send the game to night around 5, AD can be online around 8 for example) do you think I should hammer? I am a bit hesitant to, being as how we got such good activity near deadline yesterday, if there is another option.

@Vel-Rahn Koon: Also is there a chance of a temporary fill in for AD?

[Tajun]

Yeah, "I'm welcome," except I still have no idea what it's supposed to mean-- just like when I read the very first definition of the dictionary page you linked me to.

Suss it out means figure it the fuck out. It is not a strange idea. It is exactly what Demyx said. It is the only thing she could possibly have meant. And it is on dictionary.com.

This is a good point, pretty much puts to be that Android Dreams is pulling a fast one on us, for me. I'm not sure anyone else did think it but it's always a thought in the back of my mind when I'm playing. No sense to waste the first NK, unless you really wanted to cement your claim, but I don't think anyone would've questioned his role even if the mafia had got their kill.

This is possible. However, I doubt it very much. Three reasons:
1) The no NK, which I explained before points strongly to AD as town.
2) The modkill, which is nearly inexplicable if AD is scum. What was haoala telling AD? "I investigated you, and shiver me timbers, you're scum! Blow me away."
3) If AD is scum, he has screwed himself over royally. He would be pissing himself right now. In this case, the only possible situation is that there is a doc, and no other PR (cop would have claimed giving us an innocent, JK would have claimed ending the game). The odds of this are 1 in 6. Bad to start with. But let's say he beat the odds. He still has to confirm 1 townie per night. He will have to kill that townie the next night repeatedly, in order not to give us people not to lynch. He also has to explain why a claimed town power role survived to lylo/mylo without scum killing him on general principles. Not going to happen.

There is definitely a chance that AD is scum. But I would say that chance is about 1 in 50, and that in about 80% of those cases we will kill him anyway, eventually. I am willing to live with a 1 in 250 chance of us losing based on AD being scum and excaping a lynch for the scum win in order to not kill a PR right now.

Are you insane?
-Okay, let's start from the bottom: I read the dictionary definition. I still have no idea what it's supposed to mean-- I have a vague idea, from the context you used it in. But "suss comes from 'suspect'," so we'll be able to "suss it out" and win the game doesn't mean anything.
-Skipping over the bold, since that's the most important part.
-I am reading the posts. I say, "What did you think was scummy?" and you say, "I thought it was scummy." I say, "You thought WHAT was scummy?" and you say, "I thought IT was scummy!"

I hate to be a prick, but if you are following the conversation even in the slightest it was really fucking obvious what she was saying. For the love of god, read the thread and think before you complain about these things.

Can we briefly review the case on me?
I know the doc-quest. is making y'all nervous. I hate thinking I'm getting lynched for one thing, (and I know I'm not), but I want to know what it is, Exactly, that's getting me lynched.

You want the case on you? Boy it feels like I already did that. Maybe somewhere around Post 953. Read the fucking thread!!!

In all fairness I am pretty wasted right now, so my judgement might not be the best. But I am going to hammer Whiskers tomorrow morning unless somebody gives me a damn good reason why I shouldn't. AD, can you JK tomorrow if VRK sends us to night?

[Tajun]

AUUGGHHHHHH! it is not that hard to get these quotes right! Preview your fucking posts!

[Tajun]

Everyone! Not just Whiskers!

[Tajun]

Not you, everyone! It makes those posts a hundred times harder to read. Sorry about last night, I'm a bit of a jerk when I drink. So we can wait till deadline then?

[Tajun]

Yeah, I think the time has come. I don't see things changing between now and tomorrow night.

Unvote
Vote: Whiskers

It is done. Here's hoping.

[Tajun]

Sure, might help. Forehead is my biggest suspect now, but I'd certainly like to know what you think. Who are you suspicious of?

@VRC: I will be VLA from the 31st to the 4th.

@The town: If there is no NK, please don't kill me until after I get back .

[Tajun]

hiplop was the first person on your bus, I think he went on shortly after my case was posted.
Currently, we should be able to knock off two more people from this list if the scum confirms me or three more if they don't (myself included), assuming AD is our sole PR. I am thinking forehead will likely be tomorrow. After that, it is certainly a toss up. You seem to be indicating that you think StefanB and hiplop are your favorites for the second scum, would you be able to pick one?

PreEdit: We might not have a PR after tonight. In that case we would only get two lynches to get it right. Are you certain enough that StefanB is scum to be willing to let us lynch the two of you?

[Tajun]

Hmm, a bold reply, one which certainly makes me rethink my stand on you. Which might very well be what you want... But for now, I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt.

StefanB, you seem to be pretty convinced about forehead7 being scum, so I will pose the same question to you. If we end up with only two chances to kill, would you be willing to be one of them if we were to assure you that forehead7 is the second?

I agree that Demyx deserves the win if she is mafia, and will likely get it, barring another PR being present. But I really am uncertain about hiplop. Unfortunately there are now 3 people who in my mind might be scum, and we might only get to lynch two.

[Tajun]

Good luck in your other games Whiskers! You definitely improved over the course of this one, just try to be a bit more attentive and you'll make a fine player. Remember, your lynch is always bad, no matter what anyone else says.

I couldn't get behind a Hiplop lynch atp either, but the chance that he is scum is certainly there. I don't think we should ignore it, at the very least.

[Tajun]

Could be any of the three of them, I would say forehead and Stefan are the best candidates, with hiplop a little behind. Demyx is a low but present possibility. AD is remotely possible, but tres unlikely.

[Tajun]

What are you talking about? I am being jailed.

[Tajun]

It's all good. Whiskers is trying to help us flesh out who to lynch/jail tomorrow. I'm giving my opinions, under the (now looking quite good) assumption that he is town.

[Tajun]

That sucks, I was really hoping that we could confirm hiplop tonight. Means no doc too, any chance we have a cop out there to give us the win?

Good that the scum didn't try anything stupid and abstain from night killing.

I'll try and read back through Hiplop's posts but atm it's between StefanB(most likely) and Hiplop, because Demyx has been pretty town through the game.

I must admit, I was kind of hoping that they would. Another night would have been a lot of help. I agree that Demyx is almost definitely town. On Demyx's side, it's highly likely that they tried to kill her last night, their being no doctor. A Demyx/Haoala team would have most likely had Haoala send in the kill, as Demyx would have been an obvious choice for protection. She's not completely clear since the scum will somtimes split their night actions, but we only have two shots left. We'll have to choose 2 of StefanB, forehead and hiplop.

Tajun: Do I think Forehead is the second scum yes.
But going sillent in the night is somethink that is just bad play, so I will fight against my own lynch because I think that is the normal play.
I hope nights give us some interesting information too.

This is almost exactly what I would have said, town or scum. Forehead's accusation on StefanB certainly sounds genuine, and Johhog also thought StefanB was our hit. Looking at his games he has a pretty good sense about these things. He did some pretty good towntalk earlier, but I think I have misjudged him. StefanB is my best guess ATM.

I am still VLA, I should be back online Monday or Tuesday.

[Tajun]

I'm back, more or less. I'll still be a bit scattered until next Monday, but I do have access again.

I really think that we can lynch StefanB and forehead7 for the win. I am not sure which of them is scum, but process of elimination leads me to believe that one of them is. My head says forehead, my gut says stefan. Really not a lot new to add on either of them right now.

I have already said why I think Demyx is town, although I am not certain of that read. I'm also not positive about hiplop, and I was in the middle of building a case against him, but it struck me that a hiplop haoala team doesn't make much sense. In his first post after joining, hiplop wrote

Haoala is null -leaning scum. None of his posts say anything, really. Usually its game mechanics or some awkward attack on a player. Not liking this slot at all.

amongst his reads. Granted this could be taken as a vote town, fos your scumbuddy play, but considering how dead on it is and hiplop's experience it doesn't read that way. He has been fairly consistent in his reads throughout, but has changed them in accordance with changing scenarios, as I would expect from town. Most of all, I don't think we would have had a no NK night 1 if hiplop was scum without a doc. It is almost certain now that haoala rolecopped AD. It is possible that hiplop would have sent in a kill Demyx order, but I doubt it very much, based on what I know of him. It was quite unlikely even then that Demyx was a doc, and hiplop seems like the type who would kill off the PRs rather than mess around with gambits.

I think a StefanB lynch is best tonight, but I'd be willing to consider forehead7. His lynch me and StefanB if neccesary speech could be a gambit, but it doesn't read that way to me.

[Tajun]

Also, I propose a mass roleclaim, to make certain that we have all the town information. If there is a doc or a cop out there, I think we need to know now. In either case I would have some serious questions for them, but we definitely need the info, as I am basing much of my read on an AD as the only PR scenario.

Don't do so until the town has a chance to weigh in. I doubt we will get any new info from it, but you never know.

[Tajun]

Alright, let's say for a moment that we lynch forehead7 who flips town and that I die tonight. That would leave you (hiplop), StefanB and Demyx. I think Demyx is town, but that is in no way guaranteed. You have said you read StefanB as town. Which of those two would you like lynched on our final day?

Demyx and StefanB, same question, if it comes down to the three of you who would you choose right now?

Forehead7, similarily if we lynch StefanB who flips town and I die, who would you lynch out of hiplop and Demyx?

[Tajun]

Well, that's about what I figured. I was mostly curious about hiplop, since he previously expressed doubts about Demyx and believes pretty strongly that StefanB is town.

I just did an ISO of hiplop, and as much as I disagree with him over and over I don't know that I can see him as scum. My biggest concern with him is his deflecting of the jailing onto me. When he was agreeing with Whiskers' severely flawed (I think) logic about who should be jailed, and writing things like

No, not really. If its someone who won't be NK'd, then we're in no danger... i think.

Someone like whiskers or forehead would be best

on who should be jailed (and eventually settling on me) it comes across to me as an attempt to get anyone but himself jailed. This is quite easy to see as scum motivated, as AD jailing the scum would have been an almost certain town victory down the line. His early scum read on Demyx moving to a town read with almost no change in Demyx's play is also quite suspicious in my eyes, like he is trying to fit in with everyone else who thinks Demyx town. I am pretty conflicted on him all in all.

Forehead: It seems quite possible/likely that you and Stefanb will be the two lynches, are you alright with that still?

[Tajun]

Tajun: You asked, if we lynch Forehead and he flips town, who would I choose out of Stefan and Hiplop? To be honest I would have to go look more carefully and would want to listen to what they both have to say on that day first, and of course I'd want to take into account their actions today that haven't happened yet. But I am certainly leaning towards Stefan.

Definitely, just curious where everybody stood atm. I am feeling the same way, hiplop could be scum but I am betting on forehead or StefanB.

StefanB was saying that forehead and haoala had never been on the same wagon, and that one of them had been on each and every wagon (except for one maybe?) day 1. Could be a coincidence. Reminds me of one of my fave quotes: "I believe in coincidences. Coincidences happen every day. But I don't

trust

coincidences." I'm in for a forehead lynch, if that is the concensus.

I'll start us off on a massclaim. I am a vanilla townie. Forehead, you're up.

Whiskers, if you are still reading I remember you asked if I would claim doc if I was yesterday. I would have, expecting to be NK'ed or framed, in order to protect AD a night and get an extra confirmed town. No question it would have been worth it.

[Tajun]

Tajun it was obvious that you weren't a powerrole. (you wouldn't have believed that I am the doc, if you were our second powerrole) So if there would have been one it was between Forehead, Hiplop and Demyx.

That's fair I suppose, I'll remember next game not to make it so obvious. No suprises in the massclaim, that's good (I suppose).

I'll be honest, the arguments against forehead7 aren't that different than the arguments against Johhog and Whiskers in my eyes, and I am worried that they will turn out to be just as wrong. StefanB feels right to me, so I think we should lynch him tonight. I could do either though.

[Tajun]

Really just a gut feeling, mixed with PoE. I don't think Demyx is scum, and hiplop scum, while possible, seems somewhat unlikely. Forehead is certainly possible, but he isn't really fighting his own lynch, which makes sense in terms of his disinterested townie game. You went pretty hard on Whiskers and forehead when it looked like you were a possible lynch yesterday, which strikes me somewhat as opportunistic wagon deflection.

Also it might have something to do with you having been difficult to read. I really thought you were a PR, even day 1, and when you claimed vanilla it threw me off quite a bit. There are a few other things, primarily the point when you asked Whiskers and hiplop for their cases on one another, that have been made before.

Actually, I just looked at a couple of your past games, and I got more or less the same feeling about you when you were town in them. Maybe forehead is a better lynch... I really don't know. It is certainly down to the three of you (you, forehead and hiplop) in my mind. More than anything I am trying to decide which of you

not

to lynch, since we get two shots. I am leaning towards hiplop right now, in that regard, although I have my suspicions there as well.

[Tajun]

Hmm, interesting. Hiplop, I see you were just browsing the forum. Do you have any thoughts you would like to share with the class?

[Tajun]

Haha yeah, but I doubt very much I'll survive till endgame if we miss tonight. It'll be on the three of you... Two of you I suppose, number three I'll be rooting against.

Agreed, I'll kick myself if Demyx is scum, but I am not too worried on that point (definitely have felt she was town since day one). She deserves the win either way I would say. Nothing much seems to be changing around here, do we figure its just a midday lull or have people decided who they are looking to lynch and just don't want to suggest doing it early? Stefan is afc I guess and I haven't seen forehead in a while. I'll take another more thorough look through this weekend, but in the absense of new info I don't know if anything is going to change. Anyone out there want to confess and throw yourself on the mercy of the court?

[Tajun]

Gotta go with Forehead on this one. It's worth noting that while most people seem to agree that hiplop, Demyx and I are the three least scummy, we have all been on both mislynches so far. At the very least I think we should break that trend

Seriously though, I do think StefanB is our man.

Vote: StefanB

[Tajun]

Tajun, you say that the argument against Forehead is similar to the arguments against Johhog and Whiskers and that worries you. That's a good concern, but I really don't think that's the case here. Johhog and Whiskers were both lynched for acting scummy, whereas, as I see it, the primary argument against Forehead is his active lurking. That's totally different from Johhog and Whiskers, both of whom were VERY active. You can fault Whiskers for his playstyle but you can't fault him for not trying. Forehead, on the other hand... needed to get to L-1 before he even posted up his reads. Scum, or apathetic townie? Unfortunately, could be either, but his behavior of basically avoiding posting strong reads on anyone or pushing anything certainly makes me think of a scum trying to lay low.

This might be true, but I'm more referring to how I felt about the lynches. I had pretty strong reservations on both lynches, and mostly accepted them because there was physical evidence to grab onto with them. Forehead is the same, there is some evidence that he might be scum, but I really don't feel it. StefanB is the opposite, evidence is fairly lacking but he feels right. I'm going to go with my gut for a change.

[Tajun]

Eh, it's all good. I am pretty drunk right now so I will forego making my case on StefanB until Sobreity returns. But in the meantime, hiplop, can you really read forehead's posts and say "I think that these are coming from scum."? I can't. I read them and think "If I had a worse attention span, I would post the same thing because these three week days are pretty long." I just really don't feel it. It doesn't seem right, and it doesn't feel right. I can't be sure, but I think Stefan is a better candidate. I will make a case on him tomorrow. Possibly hiplop too, depending on what I see when I read the thread through.

Demyx, how do you feel about hiplop/VitaminR? I know that they haven't really given me any reason to lynch them, but I would suspect that the IC wouldn't. What impression do you get from them?

[Tajun]

Alright, I reread what I consider to be the most interesting parts of the game so far, the end of day 1 and the middle to end of day 2, along with other bits sporadically. Here go the reads:

Reread the arguments against forehead7, and put them back into context. He was heading towards the lynch train last night, with Whiskers being all that saved him. I don't think that there is any chance that he could have survived today without saying that we should lynch him and StefanB. I'm willing to bet that he knew that. If he is scum, then those words were really his only chance. And there are a lot of good arguments out there against him. He still feels very wrong to me though (as a lynch).

Hiplop: Also feels wrong, although less so, but there really aren't many good arguments against him. I don't like how he went after Demyx and then switched off there early on. He is clearly a very talented poster (I read a few of his other games today to compare) and he might be fooling me. One thing that is worth remembering:

Hiplop posted near the beginning of the day that I was a 50/50, never really elaborated, then posted I was a town read, now states that I lose town points for voting for scum, supposedly as part of a crossbus strategy (where Haoala would've voted me had he lived). It's interesting to me because at the beginning of the day when we were first trying to sort out the business of how the nightkill might've been stopped, I was thinking to myself "This is the perfect opportunity for scum to try to lynch me if they want it. I bet one of them sets out feelers to see if it'll take." And here Hiplop is, doing exactly that -- making a few minor arguments, not actually voting on it, in a manner that suggests to me he's hoping someone else will take up the argument.

I remember being queasy about VitaminR as well, although I don't really remember why. All told, I don't really think he is scum however. His posts seem to have town motivation.

Demyx: I'm not going to bother with this read again.

StefanB: I really don't know what to think of him. I started off thinking he was scum, then decided that he was a likely PR, then thought he was scum, then vanilla, and now back to scum. Forehead's case on him isn't spectacular, but again putting it back in context it is a bit better. I think your case was the best though:

I really am not seeing stefanB as scum :\ Can someone write up a case on him? it looks like hes getting easy lynched to me....

Sure thing. Here's the main points as I see them now.

Why do you need him to say it again that he claims to be a vanilla townie?
He has.
Just getting the feeling that Whiskers could after all be the better lynch.
And perhaps I will feel stupid but

Unvote

Vote: Whiskers

He jumped off the Johhog lynch onto Whiskers with very little reason. Scum trying to avoid being on a town lynch? It doesn't give me a good feeling.

Okay, done thinking.
A massclaim is not very helpful, Whiskers, that was your great plan????

Vote: Whiskers

Voting Whiskers for discussing - not demanding! - a doc claim plan in a fairly reasonable way. Later when called out on this, he claims that he would never call for such a claim plan, even though earlier today he was saying this:

Whiskers: My copplan looked like this.
Cop claim inocent on x.
AD-Demyx-x pretty much cleared.
Cop halfcleared.
Lynch one of the 3 players remeaning.
Night.
JK player cleared if there is a kill.
Cop can clear another player.
If cop is killed 4 clear (2 dead) lynch the unclear.
If JK dies and cop has inocent lynch Demyx or cop, lynch the other the next day (if it doesn't work)
If Jk dies and cop has guilty, lynch guilty.
Lynch Cop if he lyed.
Tell me where the hole is?

But somehow he says this is okay and Whiskers's post is not.

How about a little test, at the moment my vote would go to Hiplop or Whiskers. Why shouldn't I vote you or why should I vote the other one?

Then there's this gem. I've already explained why I find this scummy and you quoted it so you likely remember. To recap, scum don't like to get their hands dirty in lynches and like to fish around for other people to write cases that they can then jump on.

And then there's the table flipping behavior, but that doesn't seem to be a scumtell for him, so I'm disregarding it at the moment.

That case never really got beaten, but rather sidetracked in favour of lynching Whiskers and of questioning forehead. There was a very heated debate about it from around 700 to 950 (obviously I won't rehash it all here) and I think it may have had merit. Simple PoE and gut feelings lead me to a stefan lynch, as much as anything.

Long story short: I am certain that we should lynch StefanB, but I am not sure who from among hiplop and forehead should occupy the second seat. I will likely die tonight, being confirmed town, so it will be up to whoever is left. One thing for sure though, if we lynch forehead tonight make sure to do Stefan tomorrow (assuming that there is a tomorrow). I am actually leaning towards lynching hiplop over forehead, but I would feel really

really

stupid if I did that and forehead turned out to be the last scum.

[Tajun]

Looking at the most recent VC, it says 4 to lynch, is that right or is that a typo? (I thought it was just a majority which is obviously just 3 of 5)

Was more just wondering, because Tajun would need to vote for me if I was to be lynched if it was 4 needed.

No, that has got to be a typo. A majority (of 3) will do the trick.

[Tajun]

Thats really not a bad thing, Tajun. The best play is a mix of gut and logic (IMO)!

and I still don't condone a StefanB lynch, but I'm not going to be upset if he dies, its not a strong read, and hes pretty much 50/50 scum from a number pov, so we have the scum nailed, essentially (unless demyx is a beast)

Why do you assume you are off the hook for lynching? I have been on your case all game... This is null however, town or scum it is certainly best for you to be not lynched (from your perspective that is.

I must admit though, it would be really tough for me to lynch you over forehead. I hate going with my gut, because if I go with my brain and I end up wrong I can justify it, but if I go with my gut against my brain and I blow it I feel like a complete idiot. Hopefully StefanB will be the scum and I won't have to worry about it.

[Tajun]

what do you mean? From my pov, theres no way I'm scum :p

Haha right... What I mean is, you have dismissed in your posts the possibility that you will be lynched. It strikes me as odd, but not scummy, since regardless of your alignment it would be catastrophic (from your perspective) for you to be lynched.

My scumlist is:
1)StefanB: reasons above (50%)
2)forehead, I suppose... The evidence is there, but forehead seems wrong. Can't really ignore the facts though. (25%)
3)hiplop: From your meta you are pretty good at playing scum roles, but it is hard to picture you as scum, based on what I have seen of you this game. If you are scum I will want this one back to be certain. (20%)
4)Demyx: Other than the very beginning of the second day everything she has done has seemed town. It's possible that I am wrong, but I would be utterly shocked to have her flip scum. (5%, since nothing is certain)

On StefanB's defence: I didn't find the vote jump itself suspicious, but rather got a bad feeling from the way you responded to it being pointed out. You seemed very oversensitive to what I agree was at the time a fairly weak case. Actually, that is the majority of my reason for suspecting you, ever since LoM's initial (frankly ludicrous) suspicions of you you have seemed to overreact to every point put forth against you. It's possible this is just a personality clash, with me being a fairly cold player and you being far more aggresive, but it definitely seems scummy to me.

[Tajun]

Except the real counter to this is who cares?

How does this voting pattern make Forehead scum? What strategy would Forehead and Haoala be trying to put forth? Why couldn't this all be coincidence?

I mean even if it does turn out that Forehead is scum, it would not surprise me in the least if this voting pattern turned out to be coincidental/accidental anyway because why wouldn't it be?

No question that this is unintentional in my mind, but that doesn't mean it's not a connection. It is certainly possible that forehead looked at haoala's vote and didn't want to seem to be connected to him so he didn't join, and haoala did the same. Not agreed upon for sure, but still worth pointing out.

Really the crux of the Forehead argument, in my opinion. The active lurking. I've already talked a fair bit about this.

That's not how I read his play though. Haoala was active lurking, trying to appear helpful while actually not contributing anything of value. Forehead wasn't really trying, which doesn't seem like a scum trying to look clean to me. When he had something of value to say he would say it, and otherwise he didn't show up too much. I could be way off base, but I actually read this as a town play.

Agree with this, I really didn't like Forehead's post where he said he couldn't read so many people on Day One. Forehead's dodging of posting reads is really what makes me suspicious of him the most.

This one I agree with.

I mean, sure, I disappear for days (sorry about that again) but when I come back I post stuff. Stuff like this. You mostly seem to do it when you are on the chopping block and never otherwise.

That's not really true, he was around pretty strongly at the beginning and end of day 1, with no pressure on him at those points. That was also when the game got interesting for me, so I can certainly understand this. (Sorry if you wanted forehead to defend these points to test his reactions, but closing in on deadline I felt I had best step up)

You would have avoided being on a town lynch by not voting for the townie who got lynched. Pretty simple, really.

The point Stefan is making is that he went from being on one L-1 wagon to another, putting it at L-1. Not really an effective strategy to escape a mislynch, unless he had a good reason to think that Johhog and not Whiskers would be the target (he made this point somewhere).

Hiplop is, interestingly enough, a similar sort of issue. The only things I've noticed that made me think he might be scummy are things pertaining to me, specifically the Day Two weak push on me. As I said then, it gave me the impression of a scum testing the waters to see if I could be lynched, and when no one bit, backing down. That being said, this sort of testing the waters can be an innocent technique too, and I am not a good subjective judge of this because it involves me.

My biggest concerns about hiplop are related to you as well, mostly his day one suspicions on you. They didn't seem to have a lot of merit, and when it became clear that the majority of people thought you were town regardless of them, he tuned them down. His explanation isn't bad though.

Kind of silly to say that not giving a guy a chance is wrong when we prodded him for a whole week and he said NOTHING other than joke votes and "hey I'm town". No one was expecting brilliance, but people who have an entire week to play and don't... Not that it would've been a good idea to lynch him when I was talking about it, for many reasons that were said then.

This earlier fight seems pretty town motivated on both sides, from my perspective.

I still think that StefanB is our hit, but I wish he was around to defend himself.

[Tajun]

Being on the Johhogwagon: For a push on weak votes, I wouldn't have to be of the waggon, just look halfway resonable on it. Doing it halfway, start beeing on it and unvote would be much more risky for scum than beeing of the waggon.

I must admit that this is a good point. You seem to know well enough what you are doing to know that that might come back to bite you, and it's a bit hard to see you doing that as scum. High risk, low reward, and you would have known it.

Also, it doesn't matter who's the other scum partner, presumably they didn't know about Haoala's intention to cheat.

I agree, this is a fruitless avenue of research. We will discuss it after the game, but I would be shocked if any of the 5 of us knew what Haoala was going to do.

I still think we have to lynch StefanB. Hiplop and forehead is a tough choice though, some of hiplop's plays really bother me, things regarding both myself and Demyx. Like I said though, I would feel

really

dumb if forehead is scum and we give him a pass, mostly based on my defense. Right now hiplop reads as trying to help though... Ugh. I hope Stefan flips scum, I would hate to leave the three of you in this mess.

[Tajun]

Definitely would be better to hit forehead than no one.

Well there are 2 good points about my lynch, even for me. You still have one chance, don't screw it up and at last one of me or Forehead had to dye to get everyone to the end with an open mind. Just when Forehead is scum and wins exspect rage. (Not really but a told you so)

Haha yeah, I think I might have to go with forehead (assuming that you are on the level). hiplop rubs me the wrong way, but I do the same to him (apparently) and it might just be a personality clash. Demyx scum is a long long shot, certainly not something I would lynch on. Forehead reads as town, but it is a bit of a weak read, with all the evidence. Playing the odds I'd say you two have to be lynched, even though I'll kick myself if it's hiplop.

Was a cool game, while it lasted, very interesting players. (Just one warning, I am not the most hotheaded player on this site, perhaps not even in the top 10)

Agreed, I imagine my game is over as well, one way or the other, and it has been fun (I've learned a tonne, even if I am misusing it horrifically right now). And Stefan, I'm sorry if you got the impression I thought you were hotheaded, that isn't the case. More a bit touchy about minor things; your reaction to the big things (L-1 wagon on you second day and what not) seemed reasonable enough, but your going off on LoM on page 1 and so forth seemed heavy.

[Tajun]

Ah nutbunnies. Maybe Demyx is scum, I've been wrong about every other bloody thing this game.

Forehead has to be my best guess, but I am in no way confident about him either. Sorry Stefan, really thought you were the one.

[Tajun]

I don't know. I just still have real trouble picturing forehead as scum.

I guess hiplop is a pretty decent candidate as well, make good and sure that you take a solid look at him tomorrow (I know you would without my saying so, but just to make sure.)

Demyx, if scum, has pulled the wool over my eyes completely. Not impossible, but I will have to massively change my thought processes if she is scum

[Tajun]

Bah I say! Go town!

[Tajun]

The suspense is killing me. I hope it will last.

Wait, no.

Agreed
What is the verdict?

Either way, good game guys. Demyx, I don't envy you that decision, I had no idea.

[Tajun]

NOOOOOO!!!! LOL aughh!!

That scum QT explains so much, I just couldn't figure out why you (hiplop) would try to kill demyx night 1... it seemed soooo out of character... stefanB tried to warn me... arghhhh...

Didn't you get a link to the dead QT Tajun?!

I know if it was a mislynch or not, but would it be poor form to post it before Vel gets here?

No, I didn't... Ah well, as much fun as it would have been to chat with you guys I enjoyed the suspence of not knowing.

Well done hiplop, congrats.

[Tajun]

You did play very well hiplop, just one minor critique near the end:

Trying to get back into the game. I probably should've subbed out when the whole hospital/accident/caretaking thing happened but blaaaaah I hate subbing out :/

But then you lose the cop, you would gain the same info by lynching the guiltied player, so again its not beneficial!

this is correct

Pretty sure EVERYONE had a null-read on haoala. He didn't do all that much to warrant a substancial read.

Not so! I pushed on Haoala just before he was modkilled. Not to toot my own horn or anything, because obviously my other pushes (Stefan yesterday, for example) have not worked out so well.

oh shush you

Why are you wanting to end the game quickly,forehead?

If I had been playing and I had seen this, I might very well have insta-hammered you. I wasn't sure afterwards (a few posts later even), but you didn't seem nearly worried enough that Demyx might be scum in this post. I would imagine a town player either throwing down an insta vote back out of rage, or yelling at him to unvote if he wasn't sure.

Otherwise, a very well played game all told, I was never sure about you but you didn't give me reason to lynch. I had fun playing with the lot of you.

Quick question for hiplop: Was there any reason you chose me to get jailkept night 2, or was that just convenience?

[Tajun]

Huh, I figured it was just a brilliant move on your part, actually. I was pressing pretty hard for you to be JK'ed, and if he had chosen anyone else I would have kept the pressure up and might have gotten it. I figured that was a surefire way to get myself lynched after he chose me though, so I backed off and let it happen... Ah well.

[Tajun]

Yeah, that was a shame, would have enjoyed playing against you too. I must say, I'm loving the new avatar.

[Tajun]

A couple of thoughts personally:

AndroidDreams - Wow, I have never been more wrong. Having now been in the situation you were in (innocent and had a case made on you) I can understand your frustration. I wish I had seen that at the time, looking back it was really obvious that you were town from your posting style. Mea culpa .

Whiskers - I think Demyx and hiplop have said most of what I had to say, but I think it is worth noting that two of the first three people you went after were the scum team. You definitely need to learn to trust yourself more. Do that, and you could become a really good player.

Hiplop - Said most of what I had to say, it was a blast. Look forward to seeing you around the site.

Demyx - You were awesome as well. Had a great time playing with you, although you had a bad habit of saying what I was thinking before I got a chance to . Hopefully I'll get the pleasure of playing with you again.