Newbie 187 - Game Over

[bigAl]

Yay! Well, I'll do a random

vote: TripMyWire

to start things off.

[bigAl]

Well, by 'random' I picked the first name I reconised on the list, not using a random number generator or anything like that.

[bigAl]

Depends on your definition of random. I normally pick a person with whom I've played with most recently to vote for. While the selection process might not be random, the end result is. Especially in these games with no night yet.

Crap.. I was giving DG advice on that one and got it all wrong..

I feel honoured. :)

[bigAl]

No lynches are always bad ideas day 1. The probabilities work out so that even lynching someone randomly is better than no lynch D1. In my first game here (newb 164) we no lynched on day three, when we knew that there was a doc and a cop (myself), so that was time for another investigation.

[bigAl]

I'm trying to find something to talk about but nothing's happened. I guess I'll

unvote TMW
vote Amelia

mostly cause it's the most suspicous person (though very, very, very slightly) with one vote currently, to maybe get something going.

[bigAl]

Oooooh. Controversy.

[bigAl]

I put a second vote on someone; I

must

be scum. (jk)

[bigAl]

I know. I'm just joking. (Just to see how people react, just to get the game started.)

[bigAl]

Everything

is scummy.

[bigAl]

I can't say that I didn't expect it.

[bigAl]

I assumed I was pretty much an early-game semi-random vote.

[bigAl]

By your own logic, so was that statement. Vote stays.

It's this the same reasoning?

[bigAl]

Nope, I never quoted it. Not harping on it either as far as I can tell.

unvote: Ameliaslay
vote: starkmoon

lynch all liars (just kidding, but still deserving of a vote)

[bigAl]

By your own logic, so was that statement. Vote stays.

It's this the same reasoning?

Now that I reread that again, I actually meant to say, "Isn't this the same reasoning?", but that's pretty much past now.

[bigAl]

(and yes, probably would retract the vote, heh)

What's that mean?

I was very tempted to put another vote on there but this

is

a newbie game. In my first game I made a third vote on someone when I was town (and regreted it later). Still I can only think that mafia would do such a thing on purpose. I'll wait for everyone to check in before I do any rash actions.

(and yes, that could be perceived as bandwagon-ing.. but considering its already been said that its a Mafia tactic, only a townie or a fool would do it, which means I'm one of the two, heh)

It's easy to say "This thing I'm doing is so obviously scummy that scum would never do it". It doesn't work; anyone could say that. If it really is something so scummy to do then should shouldn't of voted in the first place.

Voting for my avatar. I made that myself, and am quite proud of it big FOS: Creed.

[bigAl]

just because the avatar keeps staring at me.. making me feel very nervous... like I'm being watched... <shivers>

better now?

[bigAl]

just because the avatar keeps staring at me

Now it's staring at you...now it's to the right...now it's staring at you...now to the left...now at you...now to the right...now at you...feelin' better now?...now to the left...now at you...now to the right...willing to unvote now?...now at you...I could go on...

(and I fixed the colour too)

[bigAl]

Hopefully this will pick up a bit when the week starts again.

Are the people voting me voting me for particular reasons or are they still random votes?

[bigAl]

1) Creed is bored and wants to get out of the game
2) Feels that it is inevitable that people will vote for him
3) Thinks that by saying 'Go on Vote for me' he is going to stop people from voting for him and save himself from being lynched.

Among these three choices the only one that possibly makes sense for me is the third. I didn't really see it

that

suspicious, at least not enough to get lynched immediately.

[bigAl]

I don't see any problem with the vote.

[bigAl]

Where is everybody?

[bigAl]

My logic stands.. vote for me... that'll give the other Town people some indication of who's scummy, so they'll lynch the Mafia, and I'll win the the Town.

If indeed you are a townie, why would you want to lynch yourself? Why go to lylo if we don't have to? I think that if we do lynch you than either 1) scum will avoid being on the lynching, because you said that they would be, or 2) it won't tell us much about who's who, same reasoning, or 3) both. I don't understand your logic. It's better to get solid info (ie. if we lynch scum) than speculative info (ie. if we lynch you, as you say). In some cases, the more somebody says something is good for the town, the more I find them suspicious.

Ameliaslay; what do you think about the Creed lynching plan?

[bigAl]

Ok...maybe this will help: summery of (slightly?) suspicious posts so far:

All right - so if a 'no lynch' vote is not in our best interests, then what is? We randomly take someone out and hang them and hope for the best? /// So ... what then, pick the person who's tagline / avatar seems the most suspicious?

Creed sugests random voting for poor reasons. Not really suspicious, but it caught my eye.

unvote, vote stark

Anxious to start a bandwagon, aren't we?

bertand voting wrong...prbably an honest mistake, but you never know.

for now an FOS at bigal.. he seems to be harping on with the 'i said everything is scummy' thing, even re quoting it

not enough there to warrant a third vote

FoSing me for a joke, and IMO overexagerating about it.

Still lurking and listening, watching and trying to make sense of it all - though yesterday WAS a sick day with good reason...

Vote: bigAl

just because the avatar keeps staring at me.. making me feel very nervous... like I'm being watched... <shivers>

(and yes, that could be perceived as bandwagon-ing.. but considering its already been said that its a Mafia tactic, only a townie or a fool would do it, which means I'm one of the two, heh)

Third vote on no evidence, even while admiting that it is a scummy thing to do.

unvote:Big Al

See?

Well, hmm, you guys are making a pretty convincing case for that Creed fellow - but I couldn't vote for him even if he wasn't me, or I'd be bandwagonning (again) and clearly be scum.

Of course, it seems to me that if no one can cast that 3rd vote, Day 1 is eternal is no one will ever die. Interesting... /// ...so cast a third vote for me, since I'm 'clearly' scummy, then at least the 6 of you left can get something going...

Wanting to vote for himself. Very odd. I still don't really know what to make of this.

Sorry for the inactivity, but... well, I simply forgot about the game... so, oops. I'm gonna read up on the game later and I'll post some stuff then.

It's been almost a week since last post; I can only assume that he forgot about us again. I'd like to hear from him soon.

There was one other post that I had found, but I forget what it was now. Creed is the guy who stands out the most right now, but not necessarily as scum.

[bigAl]

I'll be out of town from fri-sun (17-19th) all day. I'm going camping, the forcast is for -20°C (-4°F); should be fun.

[bigAl]

It seems to me that to be asking to be lynched is too big a risk for scum. Even if this could be used to 'clear' his partner somewhat, I doubt it would be worth it. Quotes such as:

My logic stands.. vote for me... that'll give the other Town people some indication of who's scummy, so they'll lynch the Mafia, and I'll win the the Town.

suggest that the scum will probably be on the lynch, therefore others would be less likely to be scum; could be an attempt to put guilt on the lynchers...hmm...other than that possibility, I find it less and less likely the Creed is scum.

[bigAl]

I was about to vote: deadline because this game is ridiculously slow and we need to get somthing moving, but then realised that it is a holiday down in the states. There better be more participation tomorrow.

[bigAl]

Welcome Thok

[bigAl]

O

h wait, from what I remember, weren't you the scum?

P

ARTIALLY RANDOM NOT-TO-BE-TAKEN SERIOUSLY vote: bigAL

C

rap.. I was giving DG advice on that one and got it all wrong..

Actually, when I read that post a month ago, I remember thinking that something seemed very slightly odd about it, but I didn't think of it. I believe Bertrand, though it was a bit of an over reaction. I'm for lynching Creed, but we should wait for everyone to check in, in case anyone counter claims (though I find it very unlikely). FOS: creed for not unvoting a cop.

Note to self: always check first few posts for clues. I think that that's three games in a row for me with hidden messages.

As for third votes; they are only scummy if there isn't a good reason for them.

I believe that third votes are always

somewhat

scummy, though not guarantied. Even for good reasons, scum would be more likely to cast the third than at other times, IMHO. There are degrees of scumminess; casting a third vote with poor reasons is more scummy than with a reason.

[bigAl]

A man can only take so many people telling him he's wrong, you know..

That happens a lot in these game...don't take offence. And this is your first game; best way to learn is to make mistakes.

Hmmm...that's twice you've voted me for poor reasons.

[bigAl]

You can also sign up for other games at the same time too if you're bored. And this is pretty much the slowest game I have ever seen, so it's not quite typical.

[bigAl]

Wouldn't that be 50% sure you're dead meat? There's a 50% of a doc. I still mostly believe that he's telling the truth (from the circumstances of the original claim), but it seems like the kind of comment scum would make trying to explain why they're not lynched. Hmmm...it's also convinient that he investigated someone who is dead...though could be just chance or scum wanting us to think that.

Is that a claim, or a joke?

Is this a joke? (yes, I assume.)

[bigAl]

In this size game, I'm not sure how wise it is for scum to claim townie. Bertrand as a cop is...suspicious, but I'm not sure. Otherwise there have been very few hints of scumminess that I've seen. And we have to lynch correctly today.

[bigAl]

Maybe this will help:

• Bertrand, why did you choose to investigate Thok?
  
• Who are your current suspicions?

[bigAl]

• Who are your current suspicions?

[bigAl]

Yeah, but there's no disscusion going on either....I don't know what to say.

Deadline at LyLo = very very bad.

I'm not sure. You come to mind, because of some of your early game comments.

Anything specific that I can defend?

[bigAl]

Still, it might be worth it to risk 50% chance. The cop would have a 40% chance of hitting scum in their investigation...which is pretty good odds (40% if choosing randomly, and there is usually enough evidence by then to push it up to least ~50%).

Of course, the Mafia could have not killed bertrand just so that he would be suspicious, but that gets into the endless realm of WIFOM...

[bigAl]

Whoa, somehow I missed posts 186 to 188.

Nope, I never quoted it. Not harping on it either as far as I can tell.

unvote: Ameliaslay
vote: starkmoon

lynch all liars (just kidding, but still deserving of a vote)

Joke vote past the point of random votes. I find this shows that he doesn't really care much who he's voting.

This was not a joke vote. ^^^

I was kidding about the lynch all liars for something that small, but I was still legitimately voting starkmoon for her exageration of:

for now an FOS at bigal.. he seems to be harping on with the 'i said everything is scummy' thing, even re quoting it ... not enough there to warrant a third vote

when I only said "Everything is scummy" once, as a joke(though there is some truth to it), and did not mention it again. And it was still early game without much to go on. It wasn't that I thought it was particularly scummy, just the most scummy thing that I had seen at the time. PPE: and it was on page 3...not really that far out of the 'random vote' stage.

______________________

I'm trying to find something to talk about but nothing's happened. I guess I'll

unvote TMW
vote Amelia

mostly cause it's the most suspicous person (though very, very, very slightly) with one vote currently, to maybe get something going.

Second vote, without any logic stated whatsoever.

(shrug) I stated that this vote was to get the game moving...if everyone just sits on their random votes D1, pretty much nothing happens. Make of it what you will.

This quote explains it quite well:

The original purpose of Random Votes was to get the day started: If everybody votes truly random, someone is likely to end up with 2 or 3 votes. That person will have to post a (Mostly CrapLogic) defence why he/she isn't scum, and people will respond to that. In other words, there is some behaviour to analyze, and something to keep the discussion going.

(The problem is that most players are hesistant to put a second or third vote up when random voting, so they 'randomly' happen to vote for someone who has no votes yet. A lot of games have this problem: Everybody will end up with exactly 1 vote, and the whole purpose of random voting is eliminated!)

_______________________


I don't really see what mass claiming would do at this point. I assume that if bertrand is not the cop and we have a real cop, they would have counter claimed by now. So basically all it would do is out a possible doc. Which would mean that, if outed, we would have to lynch correctly tomorrow as well.

[bigAl]

*sigh* 52 hours later....no response...

[bigAl]

True, but we'd have a confirmed innocent?

Yes, but what good would that do? If a doc is voted for, then they claim. Otherwise, their role remains secret. Though if a doc is voted for, the scum could lynch him before time to claim, so maybe we should use FOSes to vote until we're sure?

I still am not sure I trust that claim that we have on the table though.

Me neither...still, could be true. Possibly we should try to lynch the 'other' scum first (though there could be two 'other scum'), and see what investigation we get tomorrow.

[bigAl]

Any objectors to me voting?

I feel that that might be a loaded question, but I don't really see how anything is going to change. We'll just end up sitting here slightly accusing each other and never lynch anyone.

[bigAl]

Hmmm....based on the fact that Starkmoon is not dead yet, I think that I can conclude that one of Ameliaslay or starkmoon is probably scum. I'm leaning towards starkmoon right now. I don't have time to really talk right now.

[bigAl]

Starkmoon does seem to pop up every time that she is directly or indirectly mentioned.

The most suspicous example I can think of is:

Right now no one's talking enough to provide other options, unless we lynch a lurker....

And she posts next post.

[bigAl]

I reread most of the thread, looking specifically at the posts by Ameliaslay and starkmoon. Originally I had a generally pro-town feeling from Ameliaslay, but there are some specific posts that stick out to me as scummy such as:

Well, if he's not town... he's a really blatant scum. To me it seems too obvious a gambit for him... but if he's asking for it, I'm always happy to oblige.

refering to voting for CreedP when he wanted us to vote for him.

[bigAl]

Amelislay, Bertrand and Starkmoon were all on the lynch for Creed. I think that all three are almost equally suspicous, judging by the circumstances where they voted (that is to say that I don't think them that scummy

because

of that lynch.):

Starkmoon voted Creed for him putting a third vote on me for my avatar. Bertand followed soon after. Both votes are easily justifiable. In fact I would have voted him too if there weren't already two votes on him. Amelislay put the final vote to end a day that was dragging on forever. This is a bit more suspicious but still not very much.

[bigAl]

This will be a long night....

[bigAl]

You're planning to watch the thread all night you said.

[bigAl]

Well, it's not like I can do anything about it if some does quick lynch you. Tally's the one who'd have to unvote.

[bigAl]

Though Starkmoon has one vote already, so if she tries to quick lynch you, then between the two of us we could lynch her before another scum has a chance to vote.

[bigAl]

vote: Bertrand

[bigAl]

[bigAl]

Man, day one was so long that I actually forgot what my role was. I was wondering who could be scum when checked my role again and realised that I was!

I was 95% sure that bertrand would investigate thok, so I thought that it would be a good idea to kill him.

Good game all!

[bigAl]

Hmm...I forget now. I think it was something he said about three quaters of the way through day one. Mostly I got a gut feeling about it I think though.

Here's what we said about it earlier:

25/02/06
1:16 PM
bigAlexPhillips: so...it's down to thok or talitha
starkmoonkol: if you agree with my reasoning
bigAlexPhillips: yep
bigAlexPhillips: I got the impression that bertand will investigate thok
bigAlexPhillips: so he might be a confirmed inocent
starkmoonkol: then thok is good for night kill
starkmoonkol: very good if bertrand does investigate him, its a wated night for cop
bigAlexPhillips: So that would 2 confirmed inocents, and 4 uncomfirmed
starkmoonkol: yeah rather than 3 confirmed innocent
starkmoonkol: with the lynch night kill and cop confirm
1:20 PM
startmoonkol: and it means there may be some doubt about the cop claim
bigAlexPhillips: true
starkmoonkol: assuming we pick the same person
bigAlexPhillips: Yeah, it's easy to claim to investigate the person that you kill too.

^By "confirmed inocents", we were talking if Bertrand's claim was believed.^