Newbie 955 - Game over

[Adaham]

vote: kingcod

For buddying up with our esteemed mod

[Adaham]

Just a quick one, as I have to go to work in 15 minutes. I´ll be back later in the day.

@ Lobster: Nobody has mentioned me because I have made 1 post in which I made a rather legit point (for page 1 standards). For the rest, I don´t see really what kind of reaction you are expecting from me, as the only thing you said was that I might be forgotten. Sounds like you´re acting concerned for the sake of discussion, without actually any real substance to it.

I do agree with Hoopla on the case of Sandman. If Kingcod wasn´t so blatant on page 1, I would have joined the Sandman-wagon, but maybe later. Sandy (like our Lobster-friend) seems to be feeling around and trying to find out where the wind´s coming from so he can put his vote in a safe place.

Considering two people haven´t posted yet at all, it´s a bit early for real conclusions, but so far I´d say kingcod, Sandman and the Lobster are making my scumdar peep.

Last, but not least, Hoopla...I´m not quite sure whether to trust him for his IC-status, he´s posting a lot and acts like the good villager (part of his IC-nes, I guess), but I guess it´s wait and see. Even though in Mafia double posting is not bad (as we´re not allowed to edit), I still find his chain of posts on page 2 a bit disproportional. Wouldn´t one longer post do as well?

Anyhow, vote stays for now, I´m curious to hear back from the king of all cods...

[Adaham]

Actually the point about Hoopla is moot, as he´s only posted twice in a row, but that more than once. Still he adresses points every time he posts, so it´s not really proof, just more of a gut feeling that he´s a bit too helpful to be true, if you catch my drift...

[Adaham]

Actually the point about Hoopla is moot, as he´s only posted twice in a row, but that more than once. Still he adresses points every time he posts, so it´s not really proof, just more of a gut feeling that he´s a bit too helpful to be true, if you catch my drift...

And now I´ve done it myself (double post)

[Adaham]

Actually the point about Hoopla is moot, as he´s only posted twice in a row, but that more than once. Still he adresses points every time he posts, so it´s not really proof, just more of a gut feeling that he´s a bit too helpful to be true, if you catch my drift...

And now I´ve done it myself (double post)

[Adaham]

RayFrost (1) AdumbroDeus
AdumbroDeus (1) kingcod
kingcod (1) Adaham
Adaham (1) LobsterCatapult
LobsterCatapult (1) RayFrost
Valkyrie (1) MrSandman
MrSandman (1) Hoopla
(No vote) sailorpallas, Valkyrie
9 alive; 5 votes lynch.

sorry, lagging forum, can somebody delete those identical posts above? Thanks!

[Adaham]

Hoopla is female, last I checked.

Also, what about me?

Everybody on the Internet is male until proven otherwise

Nothing bout you yet, or so I think.

Yes page one was fun.

Just so we don't take it too seriously, and to help focus on a smaller number of Test Cases for a lynching:
unvote AdumoroDeus

Dismissing page 1 as pointless spam (or fun) is something villains like to do, I personally believe that the early spam can be very telling, as the scummies might be caught off-guard, but especially because there is no clear stances and positions yet. Once some rivalries have established, it´s easy for scum to follow others, but in the beginning scum is careful to see where the wind´s coming from.

How does your unvote (and thus your return to a completely blank state) help focus on a smaller number of Test Cases for a lynching? Or is this a fancy way of saying that you are going to wait and see which bandwagon gets rolling?

I think my vote is in a good place right now.

[Adaham]

Both your questions sound like more fishing to me. Question Nr.1 is right out pointless, as nobody has been really disrespectful to the mod (unless I´ve missed something). You are the one that took respect/disrespect to the mod as a reason to place a vote. Meager reason for a vote = scumtell (in my book).

On top of that, you admit to actually waiting for a bandwagon to form and immediately jump onto it - also scummy.

Your reason to jump on the Mr.Sandman wagon is also pretty weak. Your ironic phantasy about the PM between Valkyrie and Sandman is slightly amusing, but little more than that. Considering we´re out of the joking stage, that means that you have voted once more for a weak reason.

Only reason for your question Nr. 2 that I can think of, is that you are trying to figure out who has the most credit amongst the village and join that persons cause - sums up to me as fishing, bandwagoning and another instance of potential buddying up. You´re not improving your position right there...

[Adaham]

Thus is the inevitable fate of every question posed to the whole of town. No one has to answer, and they are just there as a prompt to stimulate useful discussion. If you don't find them useful just don't answer. They are random questions.

I don´t know whether posing random questions (as you admit yourself) is really a good way of stimulating "useful discussion", it could be much more of a distraction maneuver. Also I don´t think that posing questions to the whole village is bound to be vague and fishy as I felt your questions were.
If you would ask very specifically everybodies opinion on another player, or at least who they think is scummiest, I´d be more inclined to see it as a useful stimulus. You could argue I´m nitpicky, but while you are trying to be active, I doubt the sincerity of your means.

We are? Are you keen to lynch someone or something?

No, keen to get real discussion going a.s.a.p. We have a deadline anyway, we should use our time wisely. Leaning back (as we have 3 weeks to decide) only gets the pace down, leads to inactivity and thus a cloak for lurking scum. Again, I´m a bit surprised to see that while "trying to initiate useful discussion", your means are skewed. You are posing "random questions" while believing we´re still in the joking stage. There´s quite some discussion going on already, and so it seems you are not too much concerned on what´s going on out there, but to leave a townie impression. Only reason for you to do that would be you being scum.

No. See above. There are plenty of other reasons why someone might remark on the capabilities of their fellow townies.

As I write above, obviously we disagree on some things. There are plenty of other reasons, but Mafia (especially on day 1), is anyway one big WIFOM. This means I mostly trust my gut for now, and my gut didn´t like some of the things I stated. Some of your contributions seem sound, though, I don´t neglect that, but it´s the fact that you are "almost doing the right thing" that makes me suspicious.

As it happens I agree with Sandman that Hoopla has been hunting pretty well (e.g. post 35) but as you can see by voting patterns I'm not buddying up. Also Adaham has been hunting pretty wide and comprehensively. Its therefore a pity Adaham got it wrong voting on me!

1. Thanks!
2. ZOMG!!!BUDDYING UP!!!

Which one it be?

Just a quick comment on SailorPallas - this doesn't look like scum playing and Sandman's tunnelling of SailorPallas is in itself more scummy. SP - if I said you looked like you had made a newbie slip or two I hope you won't be offended.

Here´s one of the things I actually really agree with you. When I see top of the page that we´ve got two L-2 wagons, then I´m pretty sure the scum is probably having a vote on one of each. While writing this, I actually see with great concern that AdumbroDeus has changed the wagon, after being already on the safe side with his "calling out vote" on Valkyrie.

Of all people playing, I see SailorPallas as the one that has the most "Newbie"-air around himself. He comes in clanging clumsily and behaves a bit naive in general. Please don´t take this insulting, but I´ve seen plenty of really new players come in like that as innocents. Before they catch the drift of the game (or sometimes it´s just their style), they are usually lynched. Noob-Scum makes other mistakes, or so my gut says.

I believe the Scummies are very happy a lynchable, self-incriminating target has stepped upon the stage and they are trying to get the bandwagon rolling. This means that Lobster and Adumbro have risen considerably on my list of suspects. As it is good not to get tunnel-vision, and while my suspicion partially remains on kingcod, I´m going to move my vote.

vote: AdumbroDeus

His "pressure vote" on Valkyrie was the second vote, and considering Val hadn´t even checked in, it was a nice place in between. Nobody is going to call him out on that, but SailorPallas stepped into the trap and got all the attention for the third vote (the reason being pretty much the same as Adumbros, just uttered from the wrong mouth). His ways of scumhunting seem to be looking for easy bandwagons and as he admitted in his latest post, "he´s now got a scummy target", which probably means he´s serious about his vote.

Last, but not least, he´s got no Avatar [/quote]

[Adaham]

sorry, forgot to

unvote
vote: AdumbroDeus

[Adaham]

Valkyrie (1) sailorpallas
MrSandman (3) Hoopla, RayFrost, kingcod
sailorpallas (2) LobsterCatapult, AdumbroDeus
AdumbroDeus (1) Adaham
(No vote) Valkyrie, MrSandman
9 alive; 5 votes lynch.

AdumbroDeus:

We both seemed to have arrived to the conclusion that Sailor's logic is poor, and that is a scumtell. One other person is not a safe wagon, and "weak targets" seems to translate to you as "people with scumtells".

LobsterCatapult

i also, responding to you, isnt it possible or probable for SP to be both a newb and a scum with those posts? i mean, i could see a newb mafia saying both things, i mean, his posts obviously dont seem as experienced as yours or hooplas or even ray frosts...but that doesnt mean he is only newb, that being said, im not trying to imply that you think he coudln't be scum, you just didnt seem to indicate that he could be both.

Here´s what I said about it:

Of all people playing, I see SailorPallas as the one that has the most "Newbie"-air around himself. He comes in clanging clumsily and behaves a bit naive in general. Please don´t take this insulting, but I´ve seen plenty of really new players come in like that as innocents. Before they catch the drift of the game (or sometimes it´s just their style), they are usually lynched.

Noob-Scum makes other mistakes, or so my gut says.

Maybe I should have been more clear on that last point. The reason he´s jumped upon (voting for Valkyrie for the most hyproctical reasons) is actually so blatant that I´m slightly unwilling to accept it as a real scumtell, that´s what I mean with "too easy". Considering this is a Newbie-game, I´m more concerned of those that have obviously more experience and exploit the mistakes of the Newbs for their own purposes.

On the other hand there is no real reason to believe in SP´s innocence either, especially as he´s gone fairly quiet again. Considering he´s part of the issue, it´d be nice to hear more and maybe something more substantial. As nice as it is that Valkyrie sees something in my points, a bit more activity would be appreciated as well.

Nice one for AdumbroDeus and kingcod:

@AdumbroDeus - sorry I don't understand this - can you rephrase?

"Regardless, even if Sailor is just a weak player at the end of the day, weak players are bad for town, especially in lylo, so scum is obviously top priority, but weak players are there too, failing a good choice for clearly scum. Of course inactives have priority over simply weak players cause the town cannot win with them."

Are you suggesting lynching weak townies as a strategy to thin out the choices?

If I was kingcod and innocent, I´d be a bit more harsh in my critique of this basically outrageous statement of AD. to the packy to pace it down?

It was interesting to see how AD and Lobster replied in different manners. While AdumbroDeus appears short and confident, Lobster seems a lot more defensive, as if a nerve was hit. Anyone else seeing that? I´m not quite sure whether to ascribe that to different personalities, experience, or roles.

If I had to choose between AD and Lobster, I´d say that AD is probably more dangerous, but Lobster seems like he´s playing the newbie card a bit too much for my taste. He knows very well how to play this game and since most of us are new to this forum, he shouldn´t try to emphasize this as much as he does. Granted, this is very much gut-based, but since I respect my gut, I´m sharing these thoughts.

No vote change at this moment, but a

FoS: LobsterCatapult

Looking forward to some fresh nsights from Hoopla and more than only questions from RayFrost

[Adaham]

If I click on "quote" or "post reply", I get transferred back to the forum-lounge, but speed is okay here. Time to upgrade your 56K connection

Joke aside, especially when it takes so long for you, rather post once big instead of spreading the same one-liner over a couple of pages. No pun intended, just a serious suggestion, eh?

[Adaham]

I get your point and I´ve been in plenty of games suffering from inactivity (am actually currently in one on another forum with 6 inactives and some weak ones as well), so I know the suffering.

But while I agree about the potential problems such players can give us in a lynch or lose (as well about the shadow they offer to scum, I´ve stated that earlier in a post), I still think that we shouldn´t promote the idea of eradicating them (as you are kind of doing, by repeatedly emphasizing it), but much rather try to stimulate them differently to get more out of them.

I´ve been in my share of games, too (all online), so I´ve seen the scenario you described. But I´ve also seen often a scenario in which innocent weak players get bashed at their first entrance for their obvious scumtells (mostly voting stupid, probably assuming we´re still joking, or just trying how it works) and tend to shut up once pressure is rising. As they are inexperienced, it is very easy for an experienced player to pressure them into more mistakes and helpless defense.

I am by now very keen to hear back from SP, as he´s a big part of the reason we´re having this discussion. As I said, he´s far from being off my list, but I´d rather let him take his first steps into this on his own, before telling him from post 1 that he´s scum. I know that scumhunting includes attacking everyone to get reactions, but as an experienced player you should also know how easily newbs (whether good or bad) can be scared by 2 or 3 aggressive players going for them right off the bat. In the end they give up and shut up completely. In a way, you are thus contributing to the creation of weak players or inactives. You can get the information in more subtle ways while stimulating them at the same time to post more. You can collect your info and make a good case later. That would give you more time to second guess a couple of vocal players, which in the endgame is the much more crucial decision to make.

That´s why I distrust your intentions.

If I have some time, I´ll start looking into the sandman issue. He´s the vote leader and I should read back to see why exactly that is the case. Rayfrost and Hoopla are not very talkative of late, so the whole thing lies still a bit in the shadows for me.

[Adaham]

that post above was to AD, I´ll read Hoopla now.

[Adaham]

@ Hoopla:

Good reply to AD.

At the moment I have town reads on LobsterCatapault, RayFrost and Valkyrie.

I wouldn't be surprised if the scum is lurking in this group of players; AdumbroDeus, Sandman, Adaham, kingcod, sailorpallas.

Even though I don´t agree with you about Lobster (and myself), the rest I agree with, even though your formula "wouldn´t be surprised if" is a nice ornament for "everybody else is suspicious".

What exactly do you think of kingcod at the moment?

[Adaham]

Just to clarify, it was RayFrost that called out Valk on posting little to no content, not me, so the condescending bit doesn´t apply to me this time.

Nevertheless I do agree with RayFrost and do not like this auto-defense of Valkyrie. I was going to wait and see what comes, but up until now most contributions of her were either postponing or not game related, which makes it look very much like scummy active lurking. The reply to RayFrost is very biased...RF didn´t suggest to globally lynch weaker players, it was just a direct reminder to stop complaining about the connection and start posting about the game. Perfectly legit request, if you ask me..

@kingcod: First you say that AD´s list is a null point, but still he´s "right to raise the debate. Unlike Adaham"...? Where have I hampered the debate. In fact, what you call "stirring discontent" I call "scumhunting". I´m not posting to please other players, I want to root out scum. Besides, my "stirring discontent" gives me some reactions that aren´t based solely on politeness and thus more information. I could, for once, come to the conclusion that your FoS into my direction is just a badly camouflaged (and slightly non-commitive) OMGUS.

Regarding the others: SailorPallas really needs to post something soon, otherwise we should maybe try to replace. RayFrost is waking up and so far that looks good to me.

Hoopla has started off strong, but seems to fade more into the shadows when other people took over the discussion. Now Hoopla only posts when asked for and posts some general remarks on the game mechanics and a slightly doubtful (and unexplained) list of town-scum-reads.

Still haven´t found much to convince me of Sandmans guilt, even though gut says there´s something going on.

[Adaham]

Hi guys, just letting you know I´m still around. I´m a bit occupied these days and have a bit less time to play. As soon as I will find the time I´ll adress a couple of points and make a LoS myself. Maybe I can manage later tonight.

Very happy Sailor has been replaced, we gained a good player, that´s for sure!

[Adaham]

Okay, I´ll start for now and see how far I´ll get...

At first, a couple of things have been pointed out in my behaviour. I´m gonna pick up the example where I´m connecting willingly kingcod to AdumbroDeus by the incriminating wording "if I were kingcod and innocent". This comes from my understanding of how day 1 can be used to it´s best. Obviously there´s no nightly results and voting history yet, so all accusations are based on WIFOM (in- or excluding scumtells). As some others have pointed out correctly, in the beginning the most obvious newbie gets the attention and when a bandwagon forms, the bandwagonees are the next target, which leads usually to more interesting discussions than the original bandwagon targets.

Another thing others have noticed is that I am trying to look into everybody and that is indeed true. On day 1 I want to get as early as possible an overview on everybody and that is best achieved by applying pressure. But if the pressure is to be felt, I cannot announce at the same time that I am just pressurizing to get some reactions.

So while my incriminating scenario connecting AdumbroDeus and kingcod is definitely very WIFOM for now, it was also a reminder to kingcod that I haven´t forgotten him (and I stick to that), as well as getting potential reactions from both of them.

I´m sorry I don´t have time now for a full LoS, so I´m just going to say that my three main suspects are Hoopla, kingcod and AdumbroDeus (no order yet), with RayFrost looking in from the inside. Sandmans LoS (as well as the one of Redtail) looks very good and makes me think both are innocent. Lobster has dealt in a rather honest way with the pressure I applied and is indeed probably innocent. That leaves Valkyrie as the only question mark.

Short bits on my suspects:

@ AdumbroDeus - You´re saying you´re used to a higher speed, but I don´t see you really scumhunting a lot, only talking about it and defending your approach and yourself. Except for Valkyrie every player has posted something with meat on it, yet the only thing that ever came from you was dedicated to one of the lurkers.

- Hoopla: Redtail describes very nicely the two stages in Hooplas play. As of late she is behaving almost more like a mod (maybe also due to IC status) instead of somebody playing the game. Giving smart advice on what should happen without commiting herself a bit. Besides that, the whole thing about time running out is indeed quite far fetched, discussion is just getting juicy and some tendencies are becoming obvious. No need to think about the deadline just yet, this seems more as if Hoopla is trying to choose one of the current popular targets (Adumbro, kingcod, Sandman or a lurker) before attention blows her way.

- kingcod: I hope what I wrote above also partially answers some of the things you said to me. As a matter of fact, I currently have kingcod probably ranked behind those other two, but he´s far from being off my list. I need to maybe go back and reread him, as we´ve had a bit of discussion and my memory is playing tricks on me.

Valkyrie´s next post has to be a bit substantial, otherwise my scumdar will ping-ping seriously...

Gotta sleep now, next two days will be very busy, but I´ll read anyways on my phone, and will do my best to post.

[Adaham]

Very sorry for the absence, people, been very busy in real life. I´ll be in Italy for the weekend and will follow up on my mobile, but will return monday evening (should be before the deadline in any case). I´ll try to post as much as possible before and after my leave.

For now, not really a great deal of new things has happened. kingcod is evolving as the main suspect for day 1, with AdumbroDeus and Hoopla looking in. I´ll give a summary of my thoughts on everybody in a short LoS.

1. kingcod - Seems to be on almost everybodies mind as one of the suspects. I have poked into him earlier and my suspicions haven´t been availed by his reactions. Also other people have made some cases that I won´t retell now, but that are interesting. To sum it up, with what little we have to go on on day 1, my gut still doesn´t like the way he seems to be trying to stay middle-of-the-road, always trying to feel for where the wind´s coming from, rather than hunting for wolves. The way he poses questions and posts in general shows that he knows quite well how the game is played, so I must doubt his honesty rather than his ability.

As he´s vote leader, his recent contributions have been mostly defensive. He mentioned 4 people that he´s kind of suspicious of, but nothing with meat on it. It´s interesting that he´s not having AdumbroDeus on his list, which could either point at packdom, or at an attempt to appear honest by not voting to safe your own neck. Or it could be an honest opinion. While not very insightful and elaborate, his list of suspects shows not the most direct signs of trying to safe himself by joining the next best bandwagon, so he gains a pluspoint for that.

2. AdumbroDeus - Who am I to talk after my long absence, but the way AdumbroDeus was leaning back to read (as he admitted himself) looks very much like active lurking. On one hand he thinks everything is going to slow, on the other hand he doesn´t do much to help moving the game forward faster. That´s hypocrisy in my book. He´s the grumpy guy sitting in the corner and every time somebody touches him the wrong way, he exerts a quite aggressive aura. His categorizations of players don´t really help and his repeated question for the top three is also not getting us anywhere, as it´s pretty obviously a race between AD and kingcod at the moment.

A bit like Hoopla he seems to be wanting the day to come to a conclusion, rather than pushing discussion once more. And on top of that, he´s currently voting for kingcod, who is most popular besides AD himself. He´s been on the kingcod thing from not the very beginning, but got there a little bit after my dispute with him earlier on. While it is a theory only, one could argue that he jumped on the train right around the time when it became clear that kingcod was going to stay amidst the main suspects on day 1 (which was pretty obvious at that time).

I´m also getting the feeling that he´s trying to lure me into switching my vote on to kingcod (considering he posts barely more than three lines of text, the fact he specifically directed this question to me is quite remarkable and meaningful). So to answer his question, no, I´m not quite convinced yet kingcod is the better lynch candidate than you (even though he´s close). You just are doing too well to keep yourself right up there. Your scumhunting seems reduced to some basic categorizations of people and voting to stay alive.

3. RayFrost - Posts only to avoid replacement, or so it seems to me. That´s either weak play or selfish play. In any case, I don´t like it. I honestly don´t get the whole case on Sandman, as he´s one of the players that seems more towny than most others in my view. As Ray admits, he´s basically parking his vote on Sandman as he´s not close to a lynch. More importantly, that means that he avoids taking a clear stance in the whole discussion surrounding kingcod and AD (or others). Not much to go on because he posts very little (even when he posts), but I don´t like his stance.

4. Hoopla - Becoming a bit jovial by all that unwanted attention for her helpdesk/moderation bits. I´m not going to rechew everything said upon her, but her main concern of late seems still rather to explain herself than to hunt scum. Her case on Sandman is a deadend and never really was much of a case anyway(I don´t see anything in those things she used against Sandman). Her recent discussions with redtail also leave her in a worse light (imho) than before.

I agree with redtail that I cannot find anything greatly suspicious in Sandman and think that she tried out an early bandwagon. While the bandwagon failed, she hasn´t done almost anything after that to rekindle discussion on him or on any other suspect, only trying to defend herself or trying to wrap up votes globally. That way, her vote seems parked in a very similar way to Rays vote. But if I read about an enormous amount of games studied, then I expect a bit more of scumhunting on day 1. This seems like she jump-started the race, and once everybody accelerated she pulled the handbreak and started watching the show from behind. Scummy behaviour in my book.

5. Redtail - As I said earlier, I didn´t think Sailor was necessarily scummy because of his entrance, but Redtail has been really showing a lot of great input. While there´s always the chance of a picture-perfect-vocal-wolf, I´m currently inclined to trust him more than anybody else. Honesty commands to admit that this is probably due to the fact that I like the way he notices things and draws conclusion, for I see a similarity between us in this respect and I tend to agree with him on many things. If he´s evil, I´ll have a hard time figuring him out, but for now he seems cleaner than almost anybody in my view.

6. LobsterCatapult - Not much to add what has been said earlier about him. Not high on my list. Posts a lot when he posts, doesn´t seem afraid of speaking his mind, even though his thoughts are sometimes a bit jumpy. Another one of the people I´m currently thinking of as innocents.

7. Mr Sandman - My third-most likely innocent. I like the way he goes about his scumhunting, he´s open and was far from showing scummy behaviour when being pressured by the votes of Hoopla and Ray. Not on my scumdar at the moment.

8. Me=Weird - You see, Valkyrie was starting to ring untrue with his/her constant complaining about the connection and postponing of a real contribution. Now Me=Weird is on probation, but I real hope we can still something substantial before this day ends. I know posts can get lost, but the only thing we can judge you by for now is one line suggesting you´re going to join the most popular bandwagon right now (even if you have a long post dedicated to it, I´m still arrogant enough to assume that most of your accusations would have been recycled material ). No judgement made yet, but the behaviour of this role throughout is still unsatisfying. Hope Me=Weird gets to playing the game a.s.a.p.

Obviously my top 2+2+1 are:

AD
kingcod

Hoopla
Rayfrost

Me=Weird

---

It would be great if we could get some more discussion on the latter three before the end of the day. Especially Rayfrost seems a bit distressing to me right now.

No vote change as of yet.

[Adaham]

Hi everybody, posting from my mobile, just to show I'm alive. Very sorry for the absence, I'll explain later. Please keep this open for a couple more hours, I'll be home in 6-8 hours and will make a bigger post with a vote with it. If somebody pouts Hoopla at L1, I'll have to think who is the better choice. Sorry once more for my absence and silence. Just a few hours more, promise.

[Adaham]

Became later then I hoped, so I´m going to be short, unfortunately. Life´s a bit too busy to concentrate on this, but I´ll keep going. Hopefully the next day I´ll have a higher availability.

I like the way Equinox worded her opinion on kingcod, and I have similar feelings that make me doubt whether he´s the best lynch right now. Hoopla has done her share to be mentioned among the possible lynches, but most strikingly Exemption has taken over AD´s legacy with a strange air of wishy-washyness. Almost each of his statements is being negated in the same sentence and he´s very busy distancing himself from his previous incarnator. This means he at least hasn´t given me any reason to think of him more innocent than I thought of his predecessors guilt. While with Hoopla and kingcod I have considerable doubts about their guilt keeping me from commiting myself to a vote on them, Exemption/AD is as safe a bet as it gets on day 1 (at least in my view). Therefore stick with my vote (I never voted AdumbroDeus, I guess my vote was transferred to Exemption?).

Of the people playing I´m inclined to trust redtail, lobster, equinox. To finally answer redtails question, it is obviously very unrealistic to only expect well founded accusations on day 1, but while some WIFOM is necessary to make a case on somebody, the way it´s used and the alleged purpose behind it is what can make my scumdar go off. There´s a difference between "it´s day 1, we haven´t got much to go on, but from what I´ve seen I think X is suspicious because of Y" and "It´s day 1, we haven´t got much to go on, so let´s vote randomly instead of trying to dig deeper". Granted, this is never that outspoken, but some peoples attacks exert more of a feeling that they are not conceived honestly.

[Adaham]

rename vote: Exemption

Just so the mod can see.

[Adaham]

Spicy shit, what do you guys think of all this role-claiming? I mean, kingcod´s "I´m a vanilla townie" didn´t really add anything new to the standard "trust me I´m innocent", but Exemptions claim is rather bold and I´m as of yet undecided whether to trust it or not.

I´m mostly interested in what Lobster, Redtails and Equinox have to say on this. Should we go for Hoopla instead? Right up until the cop-claim I had doubts going for Hoopla and kingcod, but not for Exemption.

BTW, if he really turns out Cop, that was a very bad play for a special on day 1, from both incarnations.

[Adaham]

I agree with Exemptions FOS towards LobsterCatapult. I found his reaction to the death of the doctor also pretty scummy. Sure, one could argue for the newb-factor, but that´s mostly because Lobster seems to enjoy to remain in vagueland and trying to keep the "I´m new and not quite sure"-aura going. I think he knows better than that.

At the same time I´m still wary of Exemptions early claim. If we´re in scenario no.4, the wolves have just removed the only special we had and there is no role blocker. It sure would be a risky gamble, but since Exemption was close to dying anyway, he at least bought some more time and put the cop (if there is one) into a difficult situation, for he knows the truth but cannot share it easily. On the other hand, if the real cop dies, Exemption would be given away, and if the real cop would find the second mafia, he could counter-claim and win the game for the village. So it sure would be risky, but if close to lynching, it could be pulled off. And funny enough, Lobsters reaction to the death of the doctor could make a lot of sense if we´re in scenario no.4 and he couldn´t contain his joy of the bluff having worked out. That way Lobster and Exemption could be packies doing a bit of distancing (Lobsters vote on Exemption on day 1, Exemption FOSing Lobster now). I don´t think they necessarily have to be related, but both individually have shown their own share of (potential) scumtells.

Rayfrost was another one high on my list, I am now curious to see what Cimo has to bring to the table, but it better be convincing, as I am judging the role, not the player alone. Is on a hold right now.

I do believe the mafia have been special hunting a bit on day 1, two role claims being quite some noise in which signals can be sent and received. And not to forget about kingcod´s "I´m vanilla" claim, which means nothing besides using a mouthful by calling that a "claim". Remains high on the list. I´m curious to see what new Cimo is going to bring in his case against kingcod. Let´s say it could sway me either way

[Adaham]

>Rayfrost was another one high on my list
I'm curious as to why RayFrost is one of the people high on your list.

In other news, The FOS on Lobster for simply saying ":-/ we lost our dr...well damn." is ridiculous, as is Adaham's "I agree". I also find Adaham's repeated insistence that LobsterCatapult is pretending to be a newbie ridiculous. Mafiascum is very different from some other Mafia sites, and this is Lobster's first game here. I am willing to give the benefit of doubt to a newbie in a newbie game.

So, I changed my mind. I am now to willing lynch Adaham along with Exemption and Kingcod.

Also, I forgot this last time

Vote: Kingcod

1. I´ve stated my suspicions of RayFrost earlier. Despite him being SE, he was very passive, only dropping in when necessary and staying in a grey area. I´d call that active lurking and did so before. The fact he´s been replaced could point to pure disinterest in the game, but I´ve seen to many Mafias in other games being replaced more than once to take this as a reason to assume the role of RayFrost/Cirno is innocent. He was hiding a lot in the shadow of Hoopla and while this could point at just another innocent agreeing with the confirmed innocent Hoopla, it could also be buddying up with somebody RayFrost knew always to be innocent. Also on page 5 I mentioned that Rayfrost is the one "looking in"to my to top 3.

2. I disagree that with your reasoning as to why Lobsters "slip" is ridiculous. You yourself are saying this is a newb game, why do you exclude newb-villain slips? Besides that, Lobsters contribution just had the same ring to me as some other of his posts earlier on (as redtail said, look up my FoS on page 5) which struck me as forced newbish. And mind you, I´m not saying this alone is a reason to hang him higher, but it definitely struck me as a bit off. And what else can we do than instinctively judging the honesty of peoples reactions (especially in the early day when people comment on the ongoings of the night)? What have you delivered yet? You announced a case on kingcod that never came and are thus just flinging some shit in several directions and bandwagoning on the most popular choices (kingcod + Exemption). Hardly a strong case you´ve made for yourself so far...

---

@kingcod:
Guessing scumteams is okay, but I´ve stated my reasons why I see possible connections between some players. You on the other hand just state that "based on exclusion of stronger town reads" (which you don´t explain), you think that Cirno and me could be packies. Not surprisingly, this seems like another fishing attempt, trying to see if some alternatives for you and Exemption can be found.

[Adaham]

>RayFrost suspicions

Your suspicions against RayFrost can be easily checked. RayFrost has been in many, many games and he plays the same in every single one of them. I believe his wiki page has a list of his games, and I invite you to read some of them and honestly tell me that his behavior in this game is any different than usual. Further, there is a useful website called msutils.net. The ms, as you might have guessed, is for MafiaScum. This handy utility allows you check if there is any merit to your active lurking theory. You see, RayFrost usually plays several games at once, and so it is easy to check if he is more active in some games and avoiding others. The rest of your suspicions boil down to "It could be innocent, but it could be

scummy!!!

".

It appears there is quite some people around here that like to read tons of games and study statistics. I´m going to tell you, while I am not dismissing it, it´s not how I am going to play this game. There is a lot of merit in statistics and stuff other players have written before. But I have been playing and hosting for 4 years continuosly on another forum and have my own experiences and theories. And as much as I had gained experience and knowledge of peoples playing styles there, I found it harder to read the good players intentions, as selecting between past experiences was at times contradictory. In the end, while I like to work logically, I prefer to keep it gut-driven, especially in the early game. In the end, any experienced player will be able to contain a very similar style regardless of role, so I don´t see any reason to let him off the hook for the fact he´s played in a similar way as an innocent.

What remains of RayFrost is that even while he was around, he never seemed to try and help the village. Whatever he does usually, it was a disappointing contribution for the village total in this game. And the way he did it didn´t feel quite right. This in itself wasn´t damning enough, but his rather blind and unexplained following of Hoopla stuck out for some time. At some point he contributed a bit more, which shows that at least he wasn´t distracted throughout the whole game, but even then he didn´t leave much of a town impression. Consequently enough, he also liked to bark into my direction a bit, so it seems fair to assume you continue his approach.

In the end it boils down to you dismissing my own ideas of what feels scummy in somebodies post because you use some website where somebody else wrote some ideas how Mafia works. I don´t think it´s so much questioning you are doing but applying pressure, which is fair enough. It does start to look a little odd though when at the same time you ARE voting kingcod but talking about me. Is it then so strange that people (not only me) ask about your case on kingcod (which you announced!)? And don´t say I am trying to distract from your "questioning" because I asked about your case on kingcod. There are more people awaiting an explanation and that was said before your questioning. What remains is an entrance in which you announce something, you vote, and when people want you to explain, you say you don´t have to because you are questioning me.

What remains is that you come in and try to sell us the common-sense top 2 + 1 (me) as superior replacement work (by dismissing my reasons for agreeing with Exemption on Lobster). I think for now you see me as a good rubbing-tree, seeing if something could get going on me, while keeping your vote already on the most popular suspect for now. If this is what reading all these websites leads to, I´m glad I don´t read them.

>You yourself are saying this is a newb game, why do you exclude newb-villain slips?

That can hardly even be called any kind of slip at all. A power role dies. A player says 'darn, a power role died!'. Why is that player more likely to be scum than town?

I can´t offer you stats, but I´m going to explain you once more how I work and what I read. I am taking into account newb playing style and everything, if you read back, you´ll notice I didn´t jump on the sailorpallas-wagon early on day 1, as this looked like honest newb to me. But Lobster can very well play the game and most of the time he (also she?) comes across as innocent. But at times I get the feeling he´s holding back and playing his role a bit more intentionally than he would maybe do as an innocent. His regret fell right into that category, the way it was put in front of a rather long and contained post seemed constructed and forced. Call it pure gut feeling about it, whatever, it´s what I felt about it. I saw something that took my attention and I commented on it. I agreed with a Fos from Exemption onto Lobster and have by now given plenty of reasoning for it. At the same time, you voted for kingcod without giving any reason. You are right, Lobsters comment wasn´t scummy...compared to what you are pulling off right now!

>No case on Kingcod

You may have noticed, sir, that site was down for the last few days. You might also have noticed, sir, that post isolation has yet to be reimplemented. That... and I'm lazy. But frankly, I'm not all that excited about rehashing the case on Kingcod. I think questioning you and exemption would be far more interesting. But I assure you the case will come, if only to prevent you from crying 'no kingcod case' each time I question you.

>What have you delivered yet?

What have I delivered? Nothing. But I am questioning you. And that is infinitely more useful that making an accusation based on nonsense.

If you get out of your bath in the fruits of your glorious questioning, I´d also like you to tell me what exactly your reasons were to be suspicious off me right off the bat? During all your questioning, you have been very short on giving actual reasoning for any of your suspicions (regardless of forum down - that´s for everyone - whatever not implemented). What is your actual position towards Exemption (who you always mention as secondary choice, but never really do something with)? Do you believe his claim? Not? Why? And don´t call me on distraction maneuver, for I don´t see why you have the sole drilling rights in the questioning business. I have my own ways of questioning and applying pressure. Feel free to question me, but if you push, expect me to push back.

[Adaham]

Nothing, was role blocked.
Complaining about losing a doctor is a scum tell right?

FOS LobsterCatapult

Yes, it is a scumtell, but not always a very strong one. It is one nonetheless though, but not as strong as some from other players. I still think king is scum, and exemption might be. Lobster did just ping a bit scumminess.

I agree with Exemptions FOS towards LobsterCatapult. I found his reaction to the death of the doctor also pretty scummy. Sure, one could argue for the newb-factor, but that´s mostly because Lobster seems to enjoy to remain in vagueland and trying to keep the "I´m new and not quite sure"-aura going. I think he knows better than that.

In other news, The FOS on Lobster for simply saying ":-/ we lost our dr...well damn." is ridiculous, as is Adaham's "I agree". I also find Adaham's repeated insistence that LobsterCatapult is pretending to be a newbie ridiculous. Mafiascum is very different from some other Mafia sites, and this is Lobster's first game here. I am willing to give the benefit of doubt to a newbie in a newbie game.

By the same logic you could have granted me the benefit of doubt, as it´s just as well my first game here, but that´s not what I want anyway. But the main point is that we disagree about Lobster showing signs of suspicious behaviour, wherein you decided to pick on me, while you don´t say a word about Exemption and Me=Weird who have stated similar opinions on Lobster as I have.

[Adaham]

i missed exemption's claim, and i dont think we should risk a lynch today on a claimed cop if we already lost our dr. although, if exemption is scum fake claiming, the real cop should definitely not claim. thats exactly what he wants.

This is a perfect scum thing to say, because if Exemption is scum then this is exactly what the scum team wants us to think. I also think it's flat wrong. Thoughts?

I agree that this statement is actually more substantial than the beginning remark in itself (even though that was what tingled the gut immediately). To me this sounds like forced villager thinking, even though I also disagree. As the chances are still 50/50 whether we´re actually having a cop and a role/blocker or not, the scum now has a knowledge advantage as they know for sure which scenario we´re in (through the death of the doctor). If there is a roleblocker, then there is also still a cop, which most probably would be Exemption then. But if the scum (no roleblocker) took the risk to claim cop, nailed the doctor in night 1, then they are off the hook and double-bluff the existence of a cop as well as a roleblocker. The perfect cover. Since Exemption was close to a lynch, this kind of risk could be considered worthwhile. If there was a cop after all, he would most probably pay with his life for revealing Exemption.
Lobsters conclusions shed also a stronger light on his "pity the doctor" entrance. I think he got excited and wanted to channelize by being helpful. His conclusions though seem like an attempt to subtly promote a favorable scenario for himself and his packy.

[Adaham]

For the record, when I replaced in, I was also immediately suspicious of you. I tend to be suspicious of the person I'm least suspicious of (yeah, it's weird how that works).

Sorry for the double post (again), forgot this part. I understand that, but you were less all over the place than Cirno (and I also wasn´t so suspicious of your first incarnation). Cirno is doing a bit of shit flinging, paired with bandwagoning and an attitude. Besides, I don´t think I´m deep inside the person he´s least suspicious of.

BTW, may I ask if anybody has any opinion on Me=Weird that goes further than "mwah..."? I´d like to hear it, thanks.

[Adaham]

1. "I need to see more play from Cirno to pick up the style, but my guess is that immediately relaunching a wagon against me could be a tactic to encourage others not to start a fresh scum hunt. Alternatively it could be just being lazy as Cirno has admitted!"
That´s exactly what my thought was. Read my WoT

2. I´ve given more than once and more than plenty explanataion for why I did regard the comment of Lobster about losing our dog scummy. That was not because I was reading the Wiki, and it was neither because I was using any other programme that helps me creating my own statistics. And as I said earlier, I do not dismiss statistical knowledge in general, I just mentioned that it is a two-edged sword. I do use my own statistical experience for my own reasons, but I dislike if somebody comes in saying that my experience is wrong because I (or the player I´m targetting) am too noob to apply the logic here, or because I´m not using some programme that helps me dissecting posts.

In the end, the opinions whether this one line of Lobster was a scumtell are roughly 50/50 divided, which is maybe understandable, but I can´t approve of the way Cirno is starting his own witchhunt based on dismissing this argument (he neglects all those people that strangely enough agree that this was a scumtell).

The reason I am not jumping at Cirno right now is the fact that out of such a dogfight (and I´m sure it´s no coincidence Cirno picked me like this and pushed my buttons) it would always look like OMGUS and I want my accusations to be credible. I´d only like to say that more than most others that pride themselves to knowing how this is played, I´ve explained every little fart of mine from 5 different perspectives, while some get along just saying "kingcod is scum, he just is".

To be honest, I´m still not convinced Cirno is scum. He´s twisting logic to serve his purpose, but I´m thinking right now he´s doing that to create pressure on me and see what happens.

To those that accuse Cirno and me of putting up a show, let it be told that I have only said that I´m curious to see his contributions (due to Rayfrost...and others have said the same), when he started "questioning" me. I´ve replied to that as elaborately as I deemed it necessary. Mind you, none of that business excludes either one of us from scumdom, but this just looks again like other preferred lynch targets (kingcod, exemption) are hoping somebody else catches on.

[Adaham]

Good we´ve got some discussion from different sides. At the moment I feel that kingcod has been in the air too long to let him go, as he´ll probably be a topic as long as he is around. With the Exemption case in the air, I´m feeling that kingcod is the most solid case, even though I think that Ray/Cirno has done it´s share of scummy behaviour. Depending on the information we get out of lynching one of those two, we can start looking for packmates. We´ll also see what happens to our "seer" as things go on.

redtail is a good player and I like how I thinks, but I´m sometimes worried that he´s playing a trick on us, as I deem it possible from his playing style. He picks up good things here and there and knows how to create a sound case, but I´m worried that he´s so good he could do that as well as a villain. If kingcod (and maybe Cirno) turn out innocent, we are being seriously tricked by the mafia, and I might have to reconsider, but obviously that´s still far away.

As kingcod has been on my mind since pretty much the beginning, I really want to know know. What do others think in the kingcod vs. Cirno issue? Or is there maybe still anybody who believes to make a case on Exemption or anybody else?

vote: kingcod

[Adaham]

I´m not complaining, I´ve been the hated quote-war guy on other forums, so don´t worry about me, I´m enjoying the read.

[Adaham]

Have almost read up completely, busy in RL, will post later today.