Newbie 936 >Game Over!<

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/confirm

I have some experience on globalgamers.net/#mafia, hopefully that translates some to the protracted forum game format!

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Another suggestion to newbies: get an avatar. It's easier for people to not mix things up if everyone has an avatar.

There you go. I don't really like Avatars, they just clutter up topics and distract from the actual content; I leave them off, along with signatures.

But if it would help others, I'd be selfish not to add one, especially seeing as how I don't have to view it.

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All newbie games...

As a rule, I'd say ignore anything on the wiki that tries to give specific advice. It's useful for brute theory, but falls apart when you try to take specific plays from it. It is also based heavily on opinion.

Use it more like a glossary and introduction to the rules and social norms of mafia, and less like a guide to playing the game. It does a good job of describing common situations, viewpoints, and policies, but falls apart trying to provide actual advice.

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Vote:diddin

Didn't provide any amusing reason to vote for Raikri

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To be fair, it's no more BW than we were, though slightly more unnerving, considering we were just RVing.

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Unvote

Wacka Alpaca,
besides your jumping on the diddin wagaon, why would you want a no lynch.
with a no lynch, the mafia gets a free kill, and you get one person confirmed town, and one less vote. i can't see why you would want this unless you were scum.

Vote: Wacka Alpaca

I feel it's a bit premature to be putting someone at L-2. Remember this is a newbie game, the level of skill varies wildly, and many newbies get ideas in their head about the "right" way to play mafia that are contrary to the general mafiascum consensus.

Perhaps more importantly, we've only got 2 pages of discussion to go on; I'd like to see some more. As I assume you understand, more discussion = more scumtells, and is almost never bad for town.

Interpret this post as me scum-pal'ing with Wacka if you like, or defending him for hopping on the wagon with me, but at least think about the possibility that his internal strategy is flawed, and it's not his scumminess showing through.

Maybe I'm overestimating the lynch percentage of those who get put at L-2, I don't know, but I don't feel comfortable with the wagon on Wacka at the moment. Seems like everyone went in to OMGSRS mode, starting with Raikiri.

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Diddin posted while I was typing.

@diddin: it wasn't meant as anything (at least on my end), as I assume you understand.
I'm not going to change my vote to 64-bit just yet, but you make a very good point, which agrees with my initial thoughts. 64's vote seems either calculated or stupid.

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I didn't see DRK add a vote to diddin. Debating whether I should unvote.

yeah,

Unvote

for now. I know it looks a bit wierd, but I don't want diddin at L-2 right now any more than I want Wacka.

Samus hasn't spoken at all; is she trying to hide something? The game has been active for 48 hours, I'd expect her to check in by now. Maybe she's just flown the coop, but...

Vote:Samus

@Midnight

BW= Bandwagon.

L-(number)= (number) away from lynch. L-2 is dangerous, because if neither of the scum are currently voting for someone, they can fairly quickly hammer the person. L-1 is what you really want to avoid. NEVER put someone at L-1 (early in the game moreso than later; L-1 happens more often in the lategame) unless you're fairly certain they're scum.

OMGSRS was just an original synthesis fitting your chosen description. I was using it to describe the sudden shift to serious (or very good mock-serious) voting by some of the posters.


@Wacka: Your reasoning is flawed.
1) Good scum (Even mediocre scum) never strike because they "don't like" someone.
2) You're more of a threat to the town than the scum with your "I almost always no lynch" policy.
If I was scum (I remember someone saying that only scum talk like this, but whatever), I wouldn't target you. I'd use you as a smokescreen to plant seeds of genuine distrust. Like, say, DRK is doing in the post where he switched his vote to diddin.

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*snip*

Man, I have this bad habit of posting after having my post in edit box for 30 minutes without checking the thread first. Luckily, I have nothing that desperately needs saying in response to this, other than that it seems, by and large, pro-town (admittedly, this probably has more to do with the emotional distortion caused by agreement with me than any legitimate town or scum tells. I still say I see no significant flaws in reasoning etc in this post, however.).



And yes, I'll try to remember to check the thread for new replies before posting mine in the future. As a side note, the pacing here, while far more relaxed than #mafia, is fast enough that it keeps you on your toes. I like it.

Wait, you're on #mafia? WHO ARE YOU AND WHO DO YOU WORK FOR?

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@Nikanor: I usually play as Adam, my real name. I still consider myself a newbie in the context of mafiascum, especially to the format/timeframe. It's an entirely different game.

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Let me explain why in my opinion, a no lynch on day one is beneficial to the cits (Or town, whatever you call them here).

The set-up is 2 mafia to 7 cits.
(7/2)
Let's say we miss-lynch today.
(6/2)
The mafia gets a kill at night (We do not, as we have no vig or equivilant)
(5/2)
we miss-lynch again
(4/2)
Mafia kill
(3/2)
Now it is 3 to 2, with only 2 missed lynches, not entirely impossible. Infact, quite possible.

Now, we do this my way

(7/2)
No lynch
Mafia kill
(6/2)
Assumed miss-lynch (For the sake of keeping a fair balance for comparison)
(5/2)
Mafia kill
(4/2)
4 to 2 is MUCH better than 3 to 2 for a day phase. and as long as we do not miss-lynch here (Or we could even no lynch again), we STILL have a better chance of winning.

Do you see my logic here now?

No lynching is better than mis-lynching, yes. But why are you not even including the numbers for pure random? I imagine our scumdars are better than pure random; I already have a few people I think are clean. Hold on, mocking up a quick random vote vs random voting with no-lynch d1 sim in c++

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I figured that might be the case, DRK. (in RE: "I voted diddin to put him at L-2 over something minor to force discussion"). As much as anything, was pushing you to see if you'd push back on flimsy pretext.

Update on that Mafia simulator:

In 100,000 cycles, assuming pure random lynch every day, the result at the end of n2 ended up averaging to:
Town: 3.64086
Mafia: 1.52809
Ratio: 2.38262144
With no lynch the first night:
Town: 4.39404
Mafia: 1.75072
Ratio: 2.50984738


This is actually far from the result I expected, but it seems to be numerically correct. I would like to note, however, than I believe that even a newbie game can lynch d1 significantly better than random.

My simulator assumes the doctor protects 1 random person per night. it simulate roleblocker or cop, although it could be modified to do so with minimal effort. The question is, of course, how you estimate the expected "value" of a cop result.

If someone with C++/other programming knowledge would like to look over my code and see if I made any dumb mistakes, it's available here: http://pastebin.com/x5aA5Zwv

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Not liking Raikri's reply, mainly because it seems that he backpedaled a bit. After scrutiny, he backpedals and takes off his vote, then FoSes DRK with some bad reasoning. He had a good point, you should shut up if you have PR suspicion, or else you seem like you're just rolefishing.

unvote

for now, rereading later. Primary FoSes are Raikri and wacka. Wacka for his assumption that correlation=causation for the no lynch day 1 statistics. I originally had a post here about where a thinking game can't be well represented by crunching numbers, but it timed out and failed.

Yeah, my sim only holds true if we were to just

Original Roll String: 1d9

1 9-Sided Dice: (9) = 9

and be done with it, which is not what we're doing.

@raikiri:I wasn't advocating nolynch, and I do intend to vote for someone. Don't know who just yet, but we do need a lynch.

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DRK's post got me looking at midnight some more.

Anyways, discussion time I guess! I like the IC's logic

D=

Why are you unhappy about the fact that you like the IC's logic?

in fact, yeah, feels scummy enough that I'm going to do this.

Unvote, Vote:Midnight's Shadow

I'm not advocating a lynch at this point, but I want to hear Shadow's explanation.

Once again, sorry Nik for keeping you busy tracking my vote-unvote cycle.

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Why are you unhappy about the fact that you like the IC's logic?

Clarification: What I mean is, do you know he's wrong (because you're scum), but you're hopping aboard with him?

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Okay sorry for triple post Dx But what is FoS?

I assumed it meant something like "Face of Suspiscion"
or something similar.

Finger of suspicion.

Used in a sentence: I point the finger of suspicion at %USER1%.

Basically, it's saying "He looks scummy, but I'm not ready to vote him yet."

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Seeing as how I have already explained my reasoning behind the 'no lynch'. Any further explanation on it would be redundant on my part :P As I would only be repeating myself. The question you have to ask yourself, is why you feel that a 'no lynch' is the best course of action right now. You have yet to give ME a reason to NOT think you Mafia, Wacka.

D=

The deadline is 18 days from now

D=

It would be a sad, sad thing if in that amount of time, we were unable to get a scum off the ranks

D:

Very sad indeed.

Also, it makes sense in the grandest of ways, that a 'mis-lynch' is more preferably then a 'no-lynch'. It's to my knowledge that this is a game of of information gathering. What is there to be gathered from not having a lynch? Nothing really. We'd be just as lost as we were in the beginning

D=

In this one game I played, in the first two day phases and first night phase, no one died. It was followed by three day phases of 'mis-lynches', simply because people refused to vote a majority on people on the first couple of days. It hurts the Towns chances at reading who is Mafia and who isn't. So yes, a 'mis-lynch' compared to a 'no lynch' is more preferably in any first day situation.

But like I said before, there's 18 days it seems to when this will end. It would be sad if we couldn't tell who was 'scum' and who wasn't in that amount of time

D=

. Or maybe this is just being my first game here o.o I have no idea how it works here in terms of minutiae. Or does it end if a majority is reached no matter the deadline?

Either way. I stand by what I said on 'mis-lynch' and 'no-lynch'. This is a game where player death is certain. And if that has to happen in my case then so be it. I will do so gladly. I am not afraid to die in these games.~

This only confirms my suspicions. All of those uses are unambiguously sad/unhappy

confirm vote: Midnight's Sorrow

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Haha, this is ridiculous.

I've never even seen someone do a "FoS", and to me, it seems REALLY stupid.
It would be like saying, "hey you! im watching you, so dont continue being suspicious!"
Does that make sense? I have been suspicious of MS, because his posts have been VERY wishy-washy, I'll put quotes below to show where he has been on and off all the time (Atleast once).

The advantage of a FoS is that you can get a bunch of extra eyeballs on everything the guy says. It's a good strategy, don't dismiss it out of hand. I see where you're coming from, but still, be aware of the advantages.

Vote:RiffRaff

His name means trouble .o. Double Trouble xD

Obviously, just a random vote. What happens next is more interesting.

Anyways, discussion time I guess! I like the IC's logic D=

No lynching on the first day, only ever helps the Mafia(whatever name they be under). The only thing we could garner from a 'no lynch' is another phase with knowing nothing. And we want to be a little more knowledgeable then we are now by day phase end.... right? I don't like 'no lynch' in any situation save when we are in a jam, where the mafia are almost close in numbers to the town. In which it would be more preferred.~ But again, 'No Lynch' only helps Mafia, especially in my experiences elsewhere.

Unvote
Vote: Wacka Alpaca

He swaps votes, why? Because I voted for someone as a joke (The reason was that they voted without a funny reason), this is his first vote swap, and he IS bandwagonning here, because he has no reason to vote for me.

His reason to vote for you was the fact that you were advocating (for your part, anyway) no-lynch. This is anti-town is the vast majority of occasions. It's a perfectly good reason to vote for you.

Okay ^^ One thing to know about Midnight Razz

He NEVER follows a crowd.

This is when I became suspicious, because, he is telling US what he is like, in third person. Also, he just said he doesnt follow a crowd, and yet not even one page ago, he BW on me. Very wishy-washy to me.

A decent argument. No flaws visible here. As Raikiri said, be careful of playstyle differences; the Mafia Cry format may very well involve more of this sort of informal defense.

Only Mafia would want a 'No lynch', because we as the town gain nothing from it. While we watch as one of our number is taken out during the 'Night Phase', that may or may not make us anymore knowledgeable. Also, most of the time, 'No Lynch' is just a ploy to help save a Mafia member from being offed.

Basically he is summing up what others have said above him. Very confusing, as he "Never" follows a crowd, and yet here he is again, bandwagonning on an ideal.

"Never Following a Crowd" does not mean opposing the crowd when they're right. Don't conflate the two. He's saying he's a free-thinker, not a hipster.

Either way. I stand by what I said on 'mis-lynch' and 'no-lynch'. This is a game where player death is certain. And if that has to happen in my case then so be it. I will do so gladly. I am not afraid to die in these games.

In my experience, anyone who says they do not care if they die, because that is how the game works or becuase they are a cit, IS mafia. This pushed my suspicion further. Again, he went from arguing for a lynch, to basically going passive.

Can't argue with this, it's been my perception as well.

I didn't see it while posting that lengthy behemoth XD I just have yet to see him give a good reason as to 'how' he thinks its optimal. I have yet to see him give a reason, besides numbers and random generators -scratches head-. All he says is that is a good thing and leaves with those numbers and generators, but has yet to give an actual reason behind his line of thinking. At least that I have seen. I may have skimmd over some posts. Will have to go back and see if I missed anything D=

OK, let me sum up what he was saying in the above post.
1) - I have yet to give a good reason to have a no-lynch.
This is false, as i have given a good reason, in that i feel late game we benefit at another lynch phase.

Like we've been telling you, that's not a good reason.

2) - I must go back and reread some things
This is a CLASSIC cover your ass move. He admits to being negligent, and therefore if he is way off base, we cant say he was TRYING to be.

The post after this was me saying how i am suspicious of someone being wishy-washy.

I hope you can all see WHY atleast, I am suspicious of this guy.

Responses in

Bold Underline.

I see your argument, but I think it's bad.

Yeah, Wacka seems just to be riding the wagon on Midnight without posting his own reasoning. That along with my other reasoning is going to cause me to Vote: WackaAlpaca

Prod: Espeonage He only has one post in-game, I believe he's been gone long enough for a prod.

Hey Pot, why are you calling Kettle black?

*snip*

I actually was serious in my vote of Midnight. Let me break down the potential lines of thought in the post:

if Townie:
1) I think that DeathRowKitty is right.
2) Therefore, I will place my vote on someone I think is scum.

if Scum:
1) I think that DeathRowKitty's reasoning is convincing, even if it's not true.
2) Therefore, I will place my vote on the guy DRK is targeting.

In the Townie case, he thinks he's voting for scum.
In the Scum case, he knows he's voting for townie.

There's no guilt, shame, etc, to be had in voting for scum. Therefore, why would he be unhappy, sad, or otherwise distressed?

On the flip-side, assuming he's scum, he wants to appear town-like. Town has empathy for other Town. He, without even thinking, conveys a sort of prescient unease about voting for someone he knows is town, because he wants to seem town.

That's just how I see it. Wacka may very well be scum as well, but Midnight is still top of my list.

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Yeah, Wacka seems just to be riding the wagon on Midnight without posting his own reasoning. That along with my other reasoning is going to cause me to

Vote: WackaAlpaca

I want to point this out again, because I'm doubly in awe of it. You are complaining about Wacka not posting his own reasoning, then go on to vote Wacka without posting your "other reasoning".

This is the first reasoning you've provided all game for Wacka being scum. Mind sharing the referenced "Other reasoning"?

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Unvote, Vote: Riffraff

I don't like what you said earlier. I will provide my resonings in about an hour once i have caught up in my other games.

For now I will settle with saying,

THERE IS NO WAY WE ARE GOING TO NO LYNCH UNLESS THE DOC MANAGES TO SAVE SOMEONE AND WE GET TO MYLO

He lives!

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Ok. My vote was supposed to be a wake up call.
Riffraff's iso16 is an appaling excuse for a vote.
1. Unhappy faces is a stupid reason to suspect someone.
2. Confirming your vote should only be done when you add something to the case.

The worst thing about you though, (which I admit isn't inherently scummy or even your fault for that matter) is that you fail to see the differences between chatroom and forum Mafia play. In forum Mafia scum aren't going to hammer from L-2 unless they have a good reson to or it is endgame. This game isn't as fast so there is no need to worry about any of that stuff yet. There isn't going to be a lynch for at least another week so you can actually take the time to formulate a strong case against someone.

Answered in reverse order:

To begin with, 64 only recently put MS at L-2. I considered removing my vote, but decided to leave it for now, as I feel moderately confident (certainly, the most confident I've felt all game). Wacka has been at L-2 for a day now.

As for 2), I must say I was not aware of the custom surrounding confirm; I was simply stating that my vote still stood on him, despite the discussion that had occurred since then.

As for 1): I disagree. Emoticons are one of the most pure ways to communicate emotion, hence the name. I rarely see people use the "wrong" emoticon, at least when it comes to the "big 3" (happiness, sadness, surprise). They are certainly at least as pertinent as any individual word or phrase of emotion.

It's possible that mafiascum has unusual mass psychoses, and uses emoticons incorrectly, but somehow i doubt that. The possibility that MS has a form of psychosis is a real one, but one I'm confident ignoring for now.

If you can give me a thorough breakdown of why emoticon reads have little value, I'm all ears. Until then, I'll continue to view his expression of emotion atypical to a townie as a reason to vote for him.

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Ok I have nothing against emoticons portraying emotion. However I take issue with two things.
1. Emoticons are used differently from person to person. Some people use them casually. In the same way that someone says lol even when they haven't laughed. therefore it is weak to claim that everyone treats emoticons as seriously as you seem to.

This is a fair point, and I hadn't considered fully.

2. How is using emoticons scummy?

In RE: 2.

if Townie:
1) I think that DeathRowKitty is right.
2) Therefore, I will place my vote on someone I think is scum.

if Scum:
1) I think that DeathRowKitty's reasoning is convincing, even if it's not true.
2) Therefore, I will place my vote on the guy DRK is targeting.

In the Townie case, he thinks he's voting for scum.
In the Scum case, he knows he's voting for townie.

There's no guilt, shame, etc, to be had in voting for scum. Therefore, why would he be unhappy, sad, or otherwise distressed?

On the flip-side, assuming he's scum, he wants to appear town-like. Town has empathy for other Town. He, without even thinking, conveys a sort of prescient unease about voting for someone he knows is town, because he wants to seem town.

That's my basic reasoning. Using emoticons is not, in itself, scummy. But the underlying emotions, when they don't fit the situation, are. The TLDR version is that I think no Townie would be sad/unhappy/upset to vote based on an IC's recommendation/suggestion if they agree with the recommendation.

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I will say that my tell on him is far from rock-solid, but I feel he is the best lynch at the moment. I don't want to see him lynched nownownow, but I feel comfortable with my vote where it is.

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D=

<when I use that it is the equivalent of me giving someone a look saying "Are you serious?", "Why are you surprised?", or "What just happened?". I honestly don't see where you got it being a sad pr unhappy emoticon o.o

Assuming that's the truth, it's a legit answer that invalidates my argument against you.

Unvote

for now.

I mainly escalated because it felt more like you were evading my questions. I can see that it's possible you were just confused about how serious they were meant to be, considering Raikiri was also confused.

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Not liking Raikri's reply, mainly because it seems that he backpedaled a bit. After scrutiny, he backpedals and takes off his vote, then FoSes DRK with some bad reasoning. He had a good point, you should shut up if you have PR suspicion, or else you seem like you're just rolefishing.

unvote

for now, rereading later. Primary FoSes are Raikri and wacka. Wacka for his assumption that correlation=causation for the no lynch day 1 statistics. I originally had a post here about where a thinking game can't be well represented by crunching numbers, but it timed out and failed.

HERE's my reasoning for my initial Wacka FoS.

Fair enough.

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Vote Count 1.5

Wacka Alpaca (3)

- Midnight's Sorrow, Raikiri999, diddin

Midnight's Sorrow (3)

- Riffraff, Wacka Alpaca, 64-bit

Riffraff (1)

- Espeonage

Not Voting (2)

- Samus, DeathRowKitty

With nine players alive, five votes are required to lynch.

Deadline falls on Sunday April 25 at 7:43 UTC.

Nika, I

unvote

d at the bottom of the last page, but for good measure,

unvote

.

Sorry, fixed. I probably wouldn't make these mistakes if you didn't put the word unvote in the middle of a sentence, though. *Hint hint*

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Apparently, people want me to say the same things again, so here I go.

The best way (In my experience) to tell if someone is mafia, is by checking there posts for changes, ANY change.
If on your first post you say you love apples, then the next you love potatos, you go off in my radar.

MS posted a vote, then another, then another (and i think this is his fourth changed vote?).

I've changed my vote as much as him, and I've been far more actively accusatory. If that's why you voted for him, why not vote for me?

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Vote: Wacka

I'm not going to fault you for voting him, but you should probably explain why; this *is* a newbie game, he's here to learn. He won't learn if nobody tells him what he did wrong (be he townie or scum).

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Is this your first game?

Newbie 929

He subbed in there. Looking it over, some quotes stand out.

hi i am new to this game.I have a few things to say :
1 i didn't read all the thread only the first 2 pages and the last 1
2 i find Thesp quite suspicious from what i've read he and Cliquey seem to be working together on page 2 Thesp protected her.I will read all the thread in 10 hours or so but the long posts bore me to death.What i've found suspicious on page 2 is that Thesp was very eager to protect Cliquey+ this :
@ShadowDancer, both Cliquey and Thesp have told me that my indifferent position to you (and your seeming neutrality) is a light scum tell.-----> from this i deduced once again that they are in a team but as i said i didn't read the whole thread.

well i will be honest yes i want to hurry this because i don't see what you can say.I am the cop and i said it IF I AM WRONG THEN LYNCH me there will be just 1 mafia left.But since i won't be and you will be dead i don't see the reason to blab about it.
Even if i would lie (and i don't) there would be just 1 mafia left this seems like a fair deal.I will say even more than this.Should i be a mafia and want to eliminate her then watch his suspects from now.

And now just to help the mafia :
Vote : shadow2222

Selfhammers.

i am a townie but yes i voted for myself cause i know we lost after that gambit.Now Thesp(who is a mafia) won't even change his vote.Ever wondered how such an experienced player lasted so long ?And how fast he voted for me.Also he accepts defeat so fast ?I expected more from an experienced player.
I will admit that i have no idea who his comrade is.Whatever everybody please vote for me so we can end this game faster.Good game Thesp you're a good mafia but i suspected you and Clique from the start.Clique was innocent you surely aren't.
I am at a cousin right now so don't expect me to post too much.
Oh and yes i saw the irony.
Also just thought about it.Why is it bad to search for my 'comrade''

also its not my fault if the village loses.I was sure that either Clique or Thesp were mafia.Clique wasn't so Thesp is.Whatever way its not my fault you didn't litsen to what i said after we will lose.
Also for the mafia: this game is as good as over can you just revela yourselves so we can end this ?

Neither Thesp nor Cliquey were scum.




In short: shadow, you've already screwed one game with bold play, what makes you think the right thing to do here is to come in and make another bold play? I'm leaning towards policy lynch, even though it didn't pan out in 929.

[Riffraff]

Here's the highlights summary of his last game:

I didn't read the whole thread, but I think Cliquey and Thesp are mafia, so I'm going to fakeclaim cop in order to push my agenda. Oh, Cliquey wasn't mafia. Well, it's not my fault that we lose because you're going to lynch me, you should have trusted me again and lynched thesp.

That's really all you need to know.

[Riffraff]

Vote: shadow2222

policy vote, mostly.

Reads:

Raikiri999: Not much read here; I'll need to look back at the ISO to see if I missed anything.
shadow2222: So much to say here. In short: he's either retarded townie who hasn't learned from his mistakes in 929, dumb scum who hasn't learned that what he did makes him public enemy number one, or smart (relative, as always) scum who thinks he can get away with it based on the "well, he did it before" excuse.
I put odds at 50/50. Hasn't been in this game long enough to have many real reads on him.
64-bit: probtown. Don't have much faith in it, though.
Midnight's Sorrow: Still not 100% convinced, but I'm over the whole frownie fiasco
Espeonage: probtown. Fairly certain, but not sure.
diddin: Not much read. Will look back.

Deleted double post. ~Nik

[Riffraff]

what can i do to defend myself ?If i won't be given a choice i will vote for myself and help the mafia this way :P.

Self-hammering is bad. Don't do it if you want to avoid being policy lynched D1 in EVERY GAME YOU PLAY IN THE FUTURE. Seriously.

[Riffraff]

Also there are actually 2/7 chances i am a mafia not 50/50.Why spread lies ma friend? Why ?At least i am honest with the self hammering thing.

50/50 are my personal Vegas odds on you being scum, not the pure-random odds. What I mean by "Vegas odds" is that I'd bet money if the payout was that or better.

[Riffraff]

Riffraff: I want an alternate lynch plan from you if we decide as a whole that shadow stays.

Looked over Raikiri and diddin; they're both have very few posts; I count ~5-6 posts by diddin with any substantial content (as opposed to meta-game/SE-type info), and ~6-7 for Raikiri. I'd bet at least one of them is scum. For reference; you've posted more than the two of them combined, even though they had a 3 day head start.

[Riffraff]

Wow, nice AtE.

Appeal to Emotion, right? Might wanna explain at least some of those acronyms.

[Riffraff]

problems solved.
Now i think we should lynch the invectives therefore

vote 64-bit

What.

[Riffraff]

Nika: is there any way I could convince you to selectively prod those who have a vote of 64-bit, to get them in here in case they want to remove their votes for the moment to facilitate more discussion, before 64 gets (probably) scumhammered? I understand if that's not within the spirit of the game, but seriously.

[Riffraff]

problems solved.
Now i think we should lynch the invectives therefore

vote 64-bit

^RiffRaff. If 64-bit said the same thing you did, why should we believe him or you?

I don't understand the question. Please elaboriate?

[Riffraff]

64-bit is being replaced.

And there's our confirmation.

Better have a good reason!

[Riffraff]

Midnight, I'd switch my vote to you if it wasn't for the fact that it'd put you at L-1 and I'm still not sure you're mafia. You are making a big deal of out nonsense. Nikanor is smart enough to arrange those names truly or at least pseudo-randomly. I know what you're thinking, but it's called the Gambler's Fallacy, unless you're thinking Nika arranged the names to make sure the mafia weren't "clumped", in which case it's called stupidity.

Big Fucking Finger of Suspicion, the largest I can muster short of a vote:MS

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there is no reason to policy lynch there anymore. We have moved on.

Why, exactly? If you were willing to lynch him (or at least willing to put your vote on him) before, whatever changed your mind?

[Riffraff]

Here goes. I was sparked to post this by my omgus sensibilities, but I caught this my first read through this post, back when the game started.

/confirm
Sorry Im late I guess you didn't see my sig.

Im one of your SEs for this game.
Some points, no matter how helpful us SEs and IC may be there is still every chance we are still scum so don't get complacent. Take the Day phase seriously. It is the Towns only tool other than

the one or two power roles

so it is important to use the day properly. If you have any questions ask them and DRK diddin or I will answer as soon as we see the answer. Do remember that SE just means that we have played a few more games, not that we are better players or that we should be followed.

So without furthur ado

Vote: DRK

just for Motowns sake.

Oh and this is the Random Voting Stage or RVS for short. It is where we place random votes until we can start forming valid and solid cases against others.

It's my theory that the italicized is a freudian slip, that he revealed privileged information subconsciously. I'm fairly comfortable in this belief. So, what does this tell us, ignoring the ?

Either,
A) He's a doctor/cop, who knew there's at least one power role.
B) He's double-goon team, knows there's one, and remembered that there can be more but not less.

Espeonage has been playing the game long enough to know it's a 25% chance that there aren't *any* power roles. My first thought on reading this was that he was a power role. However, with the new information in the last 10 pages, that seems unlikely (Seeing as he couldn't be a doctor, why would a cop being going after a townie? It's possible he got a town read on someone else, and decided he'd just go after me instead, but it seems unlikely). That leaves only one other possibility (save typo/forgetfulness, which is certainly possible but I think unlikely).

Ultimately, it's just a theory. That said, I haven't seen much pressure on espeon so far. In the unlikely event that you lynch me, assuming I'm not a miller (and yes, I know no millers in Newbie games), might wanna take a hard look at Espeon.

Anyway, for OMGUS+the reasons above,

Vote: Espeonage

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@Riffraff: Fair point. that was a slip. Not a freudian one. Lapse in attentiveness is more accurate.
Honestly quoting OMGUS as a half of the reason for a vote is pretty bad though. OMGUS is used as a reasonn to challenge a vote not to back one up.

I was being honest about my judgement; it seemed as though it may be at least partially clouded by the emotional desire to omgus you. My goal in Mafia is not to push my agenda on people, but to work WITH the group. That means I state the shortcomings and potential flaws in my logic BEFORE I post it. If I'm wrong, and I may be, I want to know. That's just my style. My theory is that absolute honesty (if not 100% forthcoming-ness; note that I didn't share this slip back d1 when I thought it was a power-role read) is one way to play mafia.

MS: The whole point about my theory that it's a freudian slip is that it doesn't matter that he was penning that paragraph as a SE. It's subconscious; he didn't try to insinuate that, he didn't mean to insinuate it, it just slipped out.

That's just my theory, anyway.

shadow is still on my radar; I'd be interested to see what raikiri's picked out on him, apart from the bandwagoning.

[Riffraff]

Unvote

Vote : Riffraff

I forgot why I was voting for shadow earlier in the first place.

christ. Won't bother switching vote, but I still say watch Espeon, watch shadow. He may have learned more from that first game than he lets on.

[Riffraff]

Unvote

Vote : Riffraff

I forgot why I was voting for shadow earlier in the first place.

christ. Won't bother switching vote, but I still say watch Espeon, watch shadow. He may have learned more from that first game than he lets on.

EBWOP:
In case someone misunderstands what I'm saying here, I know I'm not lynched yet, but I wanted to post it now in case I didn't get a chance later.

[Riffraff]

what does EBWOP mean ?

Edit By Way Of Post. Because there's no way to edit a post once it's submitted, it's a tag used to signify an addendum or correction (more often the latter) to a post.

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Cojin wants a claim, Espeon wants one, so what the hell, not like it'll hurt anything (unless I'm not lynched and we lynch a townie, in which case it will help scum narrow down who is the cop, by process of elimination)

Vanilla Townie

I still suspect Espeon and shadow so far.

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Yeah, I kind of knew a vt claim was a bit pointless, but that's why I figured I'd share it, as there was no harm to it.

A shadow lynch at this point is not going to happen, it dissapoints me that we may have him at endgame as his play is more like a survivors then a townie.

Why does it disappoint you? Do you

like

being genocidal? Because I guarantee you that is what it boils down to.

Pigs will fly, the Easter Bunny will finally decide to show his face at my door on Easter, and Santa will see fit to give me all the years of presents he owes me for being a good boy, if

shadow

is one of the mafia.

He may be the Village Idiot for what he has done, and said. But voting him will not make you any better tbh. In fact, more then likely much worse. You would willingly vote someone off that has more of a chance of being townie, one of your

teammates

, then you would a mafiosi? And would feel glad about it???? What??

People were so enamored with the easy route, so sure that he was mafia, that they saw fit to try and end the phase as quick as can be. This will not do. If you only like taking the easy way out, then why are you playing this game?

Let me tell you this. It is neither cute, funny, or something to be proud of, offing a teammate like that, when you can be pretty damm sure he is, for simple reasons such as what you guys did. In fact, its skirting that very thin line of

Logic

, and dangerously tipping into the side of Pure Stupidity.

If your going to insist on voting

shadow

as a mafia, you had better damm well be a cop. And that is all I will say on this matter.

I don't like this. I really don't. If and when I'm lynched, promise me you'll look back at this, and look really hard at MS. He's decided beyond a doubt that shadow is townie. To me, this signals either:

• He's a townie who's just convinced shadow's an idiot, not mafia (this is what MS claims he is, obviously; however, I think the following options are more likely)
  B) He's scum, and he's defending his scumbuddy.
  C) He's scum, defending a townie because he wants to seem town

Everyone except me has dropped the shadow-lynch (more or less). So why is MS still defending him, putting him on a pedestal, making him untouchable under penalty of a diatribe?

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also, just for fun (don't take any of this seriously, I have too much time on my hands), some tea-leaf reading:

shadow

teammates

shadow

all but bolded words removed

See, he's subliminally saying that he's teammates with shadow! My logic is infallible!

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A bit late of a response, but:

you are at l1, and as my first post dictates your origional opportunism hit my scumdar im not willing to hammer right away but i do belive a claim is in order

What's opportunistic about wanting to vote for someone who does more harm than good to the town team?

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As for asking for a claim he was at l1 and i was willing to hammer a claim was in order.

Should have done it when you had the chance earlier.

Would have been more or less above suspicion; it would have been mostly on espeon.

Also, I check the thread regularly. I stated clearly "yesterday" that I was leaning toward a shadow policy (oh god, save me from the wrath of MS for using this word). In the 2 RL days of the night period, I got some thinking in, and made up my mind. What's wrong with putting your vote down immediately, when there's little danger of a quicklynch, when you're pretty sure the guy you're voting for is either scum or someone who's going to do more harm than good to the town team?

@diddin: Not a bad list (apart from myself being on it of course), but please take another look at espeon.

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This is just an "I'm still alive" post. I'll probably have something more substantial to say in the next day or two.

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Well...have to know what a scumday is o.o....

....
......

Happy scumday Nikanor :P You are our rock in this whole thing!

Anniversary of joining Mafiascum.

@Diddin: I really hope it doesn't come to the second alternative.

Rai is reading town.

but here's my main bit. I re-read some of MS's stuff. At the start of Day 2, he was ready to lynch shadow, especially with the stupid stuff shadow was saying. In the course of 8 hours, however, he had an about-face from voting for shadow (won't call this putting him at L-1 because it looks like he just didn't realize) to "I personally think he's town :/", and within 4 days he became shadow's white knight.

I'd be interested to see what Rai has on him. Shadow too; still don't think he's above suspicion just for being stupid.

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First off, some advice, in case you don't know what 5 players, 2 of them scum, means: Don't vote for ANYONE unless you're pretty sure they're scum. Scum could very well quickhammer, and then we'll be goners.

That said, if someone doesn't give me a VERY good reason in the next 24 hours or so as to why I shouldn't vote shadow, I will. If there's one person I'm willing to lose by lynching, it's him.

One theory I have on shadow: It's possible MS was killed as a "smoke screen"; The guy who took a persistent defense of an individual getting NK'd casts an aura of imperviousness around him; "We know MS was town, and he liked shadow".

Other suspicions:

Diddin and Espeon seem to avoid going after each other; could just be the fact that they're our

designated suckers

SE's for this round. Of further interest is the fact that they haven't been targeted, despite being "juicy" targets, as the natural and inevitable leaders of the scumteam.

In ISO:

Espeon uses Diddin's name: ~6 times. This number is reasonable.
Espeon gives anything remotely resembling accusation, speculation, or criticism on Diddin's role in game:

once.

(ISO44)

Diddin uses Espeon's name, or replies to diddin: 7 times. This number is reasonable.
Diddin gives anything remotely resembling accusation, speculation, or criticism on Espeon's role in game: 5, but most of them are largely irrelevant. (ISO15, where he weakly asks for reasoning from MS on his FOS on Diddin/Espeon (could be interpreted as pure self-defense, with no concern for Espeon, but I'll include it anyway. ISO26, where he defends Espeon from some legitimately dumb spin coming from cojin. ISO27/28 where he responds to my request to ISO espeon, reporting that he saw nothing amiss with Espeon (not arguing that there's anything obvious I think he should have seen as scummy, btw). ISO29 where he responds to Espeon in a fairly unsubstantial manner, asking for further info).

BIG DISCLAIMER: ALL OF THESE NUMBERS WERE FOUND USING CTRL+F FIND OF THE NAME. I MAY HAVE MISSED SOME POSTS IN WHICH NAMES WERE NOT MENTIONED. IF SO, I'M SORRY, AND FEEL FREE TO CORRECT ME.

Am I right in assuming scum selection is pure random (or Pseudo-random), and there's nothing stopping a scumteam from being both the SE's?


RE:Cojin/Strigo suspicion

It's certainly possible, but I still don't quite get what the basis for your suspicions are. Is it, as you said, his indecisiveness and what you saw as posturing RE: voting for raikiri?

As a side note, I'm mildly surprised that MS flipped town. He was near the top of my list by the end of that day. From my perspective, MS looks like a poor choice. I may be flattering myself here, but either myself or one of the SE's feels like a better choice from my perspective, seeing as how we have no doctor. Which, I admit, is part of why I suspect our SE's in the first place.

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As a further bit of support for that Diddin/Espeon theory I've got going: MS's ISO34, where he calls out Diddin/Espeon, was absurd to say the least, but it's possible he was NK'd for his dogged attacks on Diddin. It seems somewhat unlikely that skilled players would NK a guy who was attacking them, and it's possible it was a frame job, but on the other hand it can range to a WIFOM; If no skilled scum would ever NK their attacker, then nobody would ever go after a skilled player who's biggest critic was NK, and therefore the skilled scum is safe to NK them, leading us back to more or less the inverse of where we started.

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I re-read Cojin's ISO (short read, and highly recommended).

I buy your suspicions, looks like he was flailing pretty wildly, shooting off accusations left and right with little rhyme or reason.

@Espeon: I'd be more willing to go along with a Diddin lynch, mainly because I still think it could be diddin/you scumteam (despite what could be seen as pre-emptive busing, RE:372). I agree with the "[You] should be dead" bit, btw. I'd be interested as far as your reasoning RE: Diddin is scumpartner to Cojinoides.

[Riffraff]

Strig: pot/kettle


I'm really not sure here. I disagree with espeon, in that I feel shadow is a viable lynch candidate. That said, I don't really have anyone ruled out.

Diddin's point about the fact that Espeon should be dead, though I've gone over it before IIRC, rings true.

[Riffraff]

I don't think you can draw that conclusion at all, mafia could have just done that to frame me, especially since 64-bit/Cojin/me already seemed to be one of the most scummy players day 2 to most people.

But that's just WIFOM. "They didn't hit the guy who's attacking you because nobody would believe you're scum.", yeah right.

The more that comes out of your mouth, the more I'm leaning towards a Strig lynch. Possibly followed by a shadow lynch (the more I say it, the more unpopular I become, I know, but I still think he's a valid candidate).

[Riffraff]

vote:shadow2222

[Riffraff]

unvote

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you're probably wondering why the quick vote-unvote.

well, I wanted to put pressure on shadow, and see what he did. I figured he'd vote strig to end the day if he or strig is town, and not if both he and strig are mafia (mainly because I think shadow is too dumb to bus). What I forgot was that scum could potentially quickhammer, even switching from strig, and game would be over. So I unvoted.

[Riffraff]

I was going to slowroll this, because I wasn't sure, but I looked back.

[quote=Strigoides]Esp: You seem (from my rereading) to my changing your views on shadow rather much (see iso 20, 21, 26, 30. I realize that you had reasons for this, but it still seems strange. You also seeme to be pulling suspicions out of thin air (see iso 20 (64-bit), 37 (Rai) and 44 (diddin)). To your credit, once you state a suspicion, you do seem to commit to it.[/quote]

These are not the writings of a cop with a guilty verdict.

vote:Strigoides

Hope I'm right... /cross fingers

btw, shadow hopping on looks oh so suspicious.

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EBWOP: I used the term slowroll. deal with it. It's not a read.

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I'm leaning towards going along with shadow, if only because I think shadow would have shot me if I was mafia. I'm not going to do it now, though, because I really don't have any compelling reasons as for diddin being scum. I would also like to hear what case, if any, diddin has on shadow. This is a bit of a tough spot for diddin, assuming shadow's mafia; diddin, like the others, has been calling shadow clean.

As easy as it would be to just go along with the intuition of the esteemed Espeonage (that of "shadow=obvtown"), I want to hear diddin's side.

Diddin was in a good position for busing; his partner was screwed anyway, mainly be repeated subs and some stupid words. Hopping on the wagon early, with Espeon, would be effective cover.

On the other hand, the way shadow responded to the cop claim raises eyebrows.

So, in short: not sure yet, leaning a little bit towards diddin lynch, mainly because 2 of the strongest confirmed town players, Esp and MS, both held strong convictions that shadow was obvtown. Esp also put diddin at #2 on the last scumlist he posted.

[Riffraff]

leaning pretty heavily toward diddin; would vote, but I want to see what he has to say after the ISO. I've taken some notes on the current situation, but don't want to tip my hand. I'll post them after the game is over, if anyone's interested.

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I told myself I wouldn't, but here goes.

The vote order thing doesn't bother me, tbh. It's a nulltell, so you can stop worrying. I myself wasn't sure, mainly because Espeon did a good job taking the lead in that.

Diddin's also right that any claim that he bused Strig, without any evidence to back it up, is a weak lead.

shadow seems as scummy to me as ever, but that's just it; his demeanor hasn't changed, it's the same as always. This was demeanor that just about everyone, including diddin, espeon, and MS, read as VI instead of scum. So I'm beginning to think my scumdar is just broken. Furthermore, my strong convictions against shadow would probably put me fairly high on the "kill" list of a scum shadow; hasn't happened yet.

Diddin, however, has changed his demeanor with the 3-way LYLO; Now, this is a situation that does call for different play, but his play style seems to have been rocked to the core; he's on the defensive.

The basic gist is that shadow, the generally weaker player overall here, is playing an active, offensive, game, while diddin, the stronger player (or at least the one who reads stronger) is playing a weak defensive game. Damage control, really.

That said, shadow, diddin's right; you're only hurting yourself with the constant taunting. It doesn't really put pressure on diddin, it just looks snipey.

[Riffraff]

First off, I agree that shadow is playing overly aggressive.

As for it being WIFOM, I agree to a certain extent.

EBWOP: The shadow ISO found nothing but the normal scummy shadow: threatening to selfvote to hammer to "help the mafia" and hammering any L-1 except for the out of character Espeonage vote.

Note in Day 2 shadow said that even though Midnight was scummy, he wouldn't vote because Midnight "protected him." Espeonage has been "protecting" shadow almost all game, and yet he wasn't even hesitant to cast the vote on Espeon D3.

This last bit is a very good point. I'm glad I didn't hammer you.

[Riffraff]

This may go down in history as a colossally stupid error, but I don't really see us going anywhere; I think we basically have all the "evidence" we'll ever get, short of a scumslip. So, I'm going to go against my gut, but with the crowd.

Vote:Diddin

[Riffraff]

Well, that taught me a lot. A big part of me still felt like shadow was scum. I realize the reads were scrambled because he was acting VI, but I think I was just playing the part of the counter-revolutionary; I didn't like how he was getting a free pass in everyone's eyes, basically because he was acting VI.

Nice writing, Nika.

[Riffraff]

ps i was a vanilla townie

Technically shouldn't he have saved his claim until after the flair was posted?

I'm not mad at RiffRaff, but you guys got lucky, though I bet some of you were shouting through the screen that I was mafia after you died. My mission on Newbie Games is primarily to teach newbies what a good game looks like, winning is just like a little extra bonus. Not all Scummers will be here forever, and badly raised newbies will bring the site down in the future.

I picked you more by process of elimination than any real scumread on you.

Agreed we got somewhat lucky.