Newbie 917 - Game over.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Vote: Mustilicor

Who should we lynch today, you or your scumbuddy?

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Unvote, Vote: Exilon

What do you mean by "I had no way of coming to the Internet up until now"? Why'd you choose random?

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

I mean, my real life activities stripped me of my time to access the Internet.

Then how did you pick up your PM and check the thread?

And answering your second question, I chose randomly because at this point there isn't much else I can do.

You said you were choosing between random vote and OMGUS, and of course you decided on random. Why did you choose that over OMGUS?

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Then how did you pick up your PM and check the thread?

I'll just break it down like this. Friday afternoon I came home, read the Role PM and checked the thread, which was closed at the time. From that moment until Saturday afternoon I didn't have acess to the Internet. I hope that's clearer now. =)

Let's see, answering to both Pimp! (is it ok if I adress you that way?) and Quintastic. There isn't a real reason I'd vote for one or the other other than being random. With that in mind, I opted for the random vote precisely because it's Random. OMGUS isn't, and, besides from that, it is not a reasoned vote (after all, I believe voting for the one who voted with nothing else to go on isn't the way to go; since there are other and supposedly better options), at least in this case.

Fair enough.

I think the whole OMGUS/random vote debate is a little silly to be honest. Not much difference at this point.

I disagree that it's silly. Sure, the difference between a literal random vote and an OMGUS random vote is trivial, but there's still a thought process behind it worth analyzing.

And I find it suspicious that you're attempting to dissuade a debate this early.

Unvote, Vote: MMM

When do you believe the RVS (Random Voting Stage) ends?

As soon as possible. I don't see the a point in labeling a specific point in time as "the point when the RVS officially ended". So I don't. I just get it over with.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Mega Pimp has a point, but I don't like his vote hoping to three different people in the course of one and a half pages of gameplay. It seems like he's stretching for anything he can get a nibble on that can be construed as remotely scummy.

My first vote was random, and I believe the response to my second vote was reasonable. As such, I believe it is the correct play for me to abandon them and look elsewhere. Do you disagree?

I don't think it's scummy right now, as it could be enthusiastic town throwing his vote around as much as possible like a hound that smells blood. But it cheapens his ability to convince others of his opinion if he just jumps on every little thing that's said with a vote.

Jumping around for no/bad reasons will cheapen my ability to convince others. Jumping around for good reasons, I suspect, will not.

Mega Pimp: Would you have liked a 3 or 4 person BW to happen on any of your targets? Do you think a very early BW can be a good thing or a bad thing, why?

I'd have liked a wagon, although so far I haven't found one necessary. Early wagons, I believe, are good for their ability to force reactions.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

As for real lurking, if it becomes an issue, are you folks part of the lynch all lurkers crowd? I mean no, it's not always a tell, but at the same time I don't know if it's a good idea to allow lurking to be a safe strategy. You know?

For town or scum, for that matter. This is a game at the heart of the matter, and a game is more fun when people are participating.

I support lynch all lurkers for a very conservative definition of lurker. Specifically, a player who has posted so little that it's really impossible to judge their alignment. As long as it's possible to judge, I don't think it's a big deal how often one posts.

So long as you have good reasons for your switching around your vote, you’ll be just fine. For reference purposes, do your votes on Exilon & Mysti reflect good reasoning? And do you feel their reactions thus far in this game classify as early scumtells?

My votes so far were as well-reasoned as I could manage. Exilon's reaction wasn't scummy, I don't have a read on MMM's reaction yet though.

I'm keeping an eye on SAMP. I really don't think his logic and intentions for voting Exilon are good at all.

What's not good about them? What do you think about my logic and intentions for voting you?

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Nobody can explain to SAMP what they think about SAMP's thought process or why he's voting for Triple M.

MMM stated what he thought about why I was voting for Exilon. Surely he should be capable of doing the same for my vote on himself?

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

He said that he didn't think your logic and intentions are good at all when it comes to your vote on Exilon. You asked him what his thoughts on your logics and intentions were when it comes to your vote on him. That's silly fluff. Because you know going into the question that his answer is going to be the same.

Not exactly. I mean if you simplify the question down to a yes/no "Do you think it's scummy?", then yeah it'd be pointless. But the question I posed to him isn't binary, and I have a hard time believing he finds my vote for him

precisely

as scummy as my vote for Exilon.

Ah... Nothing like waking up in the morning and finding yourself at L3. How refreshing.

I expressed concern about SAMP because at first his vote for Exilon looked RVS, not really good reasoning. I figured, if Exilon overreacted and put down an OMGUS, SAMP may have just found a scummer. But later, SAMP said that he thought it was pretty good reasoning. I disagree. He debated with himself as to whether to RVS or OMGUS. I thought it was cute, and a good opener. Certainly not a scumtell.

Vote: Super Awesome Mega Pimp!

so I'm not the only one at L3 and I'll stop feeling lonely up here.

What made you think my vote for Exilon was random? I posed a couple non-random questions alongside it.

I said the reasoning was the best I could do. My reason for voting Exilon wasn't great, but "great" isn't exactly a standard I can hold my reasoning up to during the RVS. Beggars can't be choosers.

That said, I'm going to echo your concerns with the question because of SAMP!'s failure to claim a pressuring tactic once challenged. Half-heartedly, though. Admitting to pressuring seems like it would sort of kill his ability to empty-pressure from then on out.

I'm afraid to admit I don't even understand what you're saying here. Could you explain it please?

No OMGUS was intended. I thought my vote would be better on SAMP than TQO.

I pointed out the RVS/OMGUS thing was silly originally to excuse my not joining on it. SAMP voted me for thinking it silly. It was then I realized he was serious. So, I did pointed out it was weird reasoning, just not intentionally. Either way, I think voting someone because they debated whether to OMGUS or RVS, and then voting someone when they don't agree with you is kinda scummy.

I didn't vote you because you didn't agree with me. I voted you because it looked like you were trying to discourage what was at the time the only conversation, when an uninformed player would need more evidence to proceed.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Sorry about that - my wording is a little.. strange.. sometimes. What I was saying is this: I'm slightly concerned about the fact that you failed to satisfactorily explain why you were asking such a vague question. Had you claimed that you did it entirely to judge his reaction to pressure, you would have neatly confirmed my hypothesis regarding your actions and wiped away nearly any suspicion I had of you. But you did not do this. Instead, you completely dodged her request for an explanation by just saying that MMM should be able to answer it.

The fact is, though, if you are using an erratic, unpredictable pressuring tactic on purpose, admitting that you are doing so will all but ensure it doesn't work from here on out. That's why my concern is half-hearted. Immediate transparency isn't

always

the most pro-town move, in my (admittedly neophyte) opinion.

Still not sure what this tactic you're talking about is all about, but no, I'm not asking that question as part of a plan I want to keep secret. I only asked it because I thought the answer would be informative, plain and simple.

But the question I posed to him isn't binary, and I have a hard time believing he finds my vote for him precisely as scummy as my vote for Exilon.

It's not that you voted me, it's that you were pretty serious about the other vote.

See? It was informative.

MMM:

I still don't know what you find scummy about the Exilon vote. I asked him a serious question about something I found strange, he gave me a reasonable answer, I backed off. What part of that do you find suspicious?

I'd still like an answer to this question as well:

What made you think my vote for Exilon was random? I posed a couple non-random questions alongside it.

TQO, Andrius, anyone else who suspects Anti:

I think he's town. To me it looks like he's being overly honest, and saying things that a more experienced player would know better than to say. Scum are very rarely that honest, therefore I doubt he's scum.

Could you explain why you believe I'm wrong in this regard?

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Vote: Andrius

Wow. Antifinity, I'm blown away with just how scummy you are. I considered the possibility that you would just fake being mafia, just for fun, but there's really no point in doing that, as you'd tick us and His Highness, Zorblag, off.

The possibility that Antifinity might be a townie faking scum for fun is an

extremely

nonsensical thing for a townie to be considering. For scum it makes sense, because then Andrius would know that Antifinity is town and would thus wonder why a townie is posting so scummy.

Got it. VT = Vanilla Townie and PR = Power Role.

If I were a VT, then in order to preserve my own life I'd say I'm a VT.
HOWEVER, given that the VT doesn't act alone, and that there are 6 other players on the Townie team, and the fact that you "win" even if you're a dead Townie:
Then I guess it would be better to claim a power role assuming that:
-the real holder of this role does not claim as well
-and that the mafia take the bait.

Its a risk, either way.
I don't think that the real holder of the role would claim, as they would be risking themselves. Besides, a doctor's only good to the town as anonymous, and the sheriff claim is a risk regardless.
The mafia would then have to take the bait, which is entirely up to them.

So, in the end, I'd fakeclaim a power role [I know which I'd claim too] and hope that my efforts were not in vain. Granted, McGriddle, this is the "right" answer, if there is one, but I'm working out a plan now, for this vote here, and you helped me out a bit, so thanks.

"I'd fakeclaim a power role". Seriously.

VOTE: Mysterious Mystery Man

Reasoning:
-I think he's scum.
-I'm already seen as scummy for doing this, so that doesn't hold me back. I feel as if I don't do this, I'll be saying that I'm too afraid of being seen as scummy to vote. I think that we have to overcome the fear of being seen as scummy in order to win as the town, because if we don't vote out of fear of being labelled as scum, we're never going to vote, and we will lose.
-Yeah, I put myself in a bad position, but as Mustilicor said, if MMM’s a townie than I’m in serious trouble, whether I place this vote fourth, fifth, or not at all. So I’m really S.O.L. if MMM’s a townie, I guess.

Well, MMM, if you are a townie, then you'll probably see me hanging here after a little while. D:

This is the biggest scum-tell. After hammering MMM, Andrius spends the rest of the post dwelling on what happens if MMM turns up town. Why? Because he's a townie, paranoid that he's wrong? No way. If he was paranoid he wouldn't have dropped the hammer so fearlessly. He dwelled on the possibility of MMM turning up town because

he knew it was going to happen

.

Nailed you, scum.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

And to continue the discussion on Antifinity from yesterday.

Upon further thought into it I am starting to lean that way myself. Like I said above it just seems TOO obvious that he could be scum. Even a new scum player would/should have enough know how to know that asking questions as to how they can save themselves from seeming scummy is too obvious a clue.

But I still lean on Anti for the sole fact that any self respecting townie that has read his role knows he is town. There is no reason why Anti would have to be wishy washy with us in terms of talking about "whether or not I was scum" or "if I were scum, or not scum depending on the situation" ect. ect. ect. If you're town you know you're town, providing variables for us to consider whether or not that is fact is very suspicious. And even new players have no reason why they would do so within good reason.

I disagree. It seems natural for someone who doesn't have experience with solid tells to try to catch scum by imagining what one would do if oneself was scum. I believe he was just thinking along those lines, only out loud rather than to himself.

I suppose if I were to go with my gut, I'd agree with you. At the same time though, it's a LOT to completely disregard. That's what keeps edging him upwards in the system I've devised: the sheer number of things he says that could be read as scummy. And really, can I safely disregard that?

I'm not saying we should disregard it, that'd be silly. What I'm saying is, rather than analyze it simply on how it overtly appears, it's best to analyze it on what he was most likely thinking when he posted. (I say this because it's a lot easier for scum to hide their tells from the former type of analysis than from the latter.) As town, he would post what he posted simply because it's actually what he was thinking. As scum, he would post it because... he was hoping to ask the town for advice on playing scum, and didn't realize how overwhelmingly stupid that is? v:?v I can't think of a plausible mindset for scum-Antifinity to post that, which is why I say he's town.

After all, if he were hasty scum who only belatedly realized his first post or so was unfortunate, how could he attempt to patch this over? Would he 180? Such a thing might actually call more attention to his errors. As such, it would make more sense for him to actually mimic his initial playstyle to remain consistent, to constantly throw out tiny tells until we're conditioned into dismissing anything suspicious from him.

I doubt it. If scum is getting attacked for something, it's usually to their benefit to quit doing that thing, even at the risk of appearing inconsistent, rather than to keep doing it and give their attackers more ammo.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Stoofer's crazy-ass law

"I'd fakeclaim a power role". Seriously.

That's the correct thing to do, if you were a town-aligned person. It makes obvious sense. Simple as that.

What makes obvious sense to a town-aligned person is NOT LYING. Haven't you heard of "Lynch all Liars"?

And finally, I'm glad you seem to think that you've "nailed me" because you haven't. You didn't vote for me.

Try looking at the top of the post.

Now, I can OMGUS you. I could also counterattack and say that you were both voting for MMM since the beginning, because you are mafia and you knew he was innocent. I could say that you're out to get me because you're mafia and you know that you can get the others to lynch me.

Is that a threat? Cause I ain't scared.

If my posting of my reasons why I thought McGriddle was a scum would somehow help my case, I will.

I think you'd be better off starting an attack on someone who isn't a mod-confirmed townie. Or defending from my other points against you.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

But for today, I'm actually leaning towards SAMP. Believe it or not. When you combine the fact that he virtually tunneled on Triple M after RVS ended, with the fact that Triple M was town, along with the fact that although Andrius has been acting scummy, his pre-prepared analysis of McGriddles motives, and SAMP's immediate jumping on him for Day 2, all of these things make me believe that SAMP is trying to direct the town intentionally on mislynches.

My vote on MMM was cast on the 22nd, and the day ended on the 26th. That's not a tunnel, it just appears that way because the day was so short. (Although I find it amusing that I apparently managed to vote-hop

and

tunnel-vision, all in a day that lasted one week )

And why do I believe Andrius (for now)? Because he typed up that entire analysis ASSUMING McGriddle would be alive going into Day 2. He had virtually no clue who was going to die in the night, and was convinced individually that McGriddle was scum. That was obviously not true, but he built up a good case all the same as he waited for the next Day Phase.

Here's the big tell: Scum, whether they are experienced Mafia players or new players, would never put THAT much effort into building a case on a player that they were targeting to kill on Night 1. There would be no rhyme, reason or point to that kind of strategy. Call it WIFOM all you want, but I don't believe our scum is so smart in this game that they believe a double-feint on McGriddle would be an effective way to go about things.

How smart do you believe the scum of this game is?

When Andrius first brought up his case on McGriddle he said this:

If my posting of my reasons why I thought McGriddle was a scum would somehow help my case, I will.

"would somehow help my case". He had to have some idea that posting a McGriddle case might make him look pro-town, or he wouldn't have said that. Given that, it's silly to write him off as not smart enough for scum.

Therefore, when you consider the vote on Triple M, but not just the vote but the tunneling of the vote, the attack on Andrius for the same newbie scum reasons that he defends Antifinity from, and Andrius' case against McGriddle proving that he did not know that McGriddle was going to be targeted, I feel a SAMP/Anti scumteam is far more likely at this point, and SAMP being a far more dangerous threat to the town.

What makes you say my attack on Andrius is for the same reasons as my defense of Antifinity?

I don't know, for how scummy McGriddles could have been made to look, that seems like a rather odd NK to me. Unless there was a motive or something to be gained. Thoughts anyone?

I bet it's cause they thought he was a power role. Besides scum, PRs have the most to gain from lurky play, so McGriddle would likely be the scum's top suspect for PR.

I will admit SAMP's complete disinterest in Andrius's case against McGriddle is slightly suspect (he could have solidified his case right then and there if he'd caught Andrius in a lie, and he had no reason to think that wasn't a possibility)

Actually I did have one: Even the most clueless scum in the world wouldn't say something like that if he couldn't back it up. It's impossible to get away with. It'd be like if I told you the sky is green, hoping you wouldn't bother to actually check.

his name/icon/signature combination annoys the hell out of me.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Does anyone else have a favored way to interpret this? I can't really decide if Andrius's recent behavior tilts more toward frustrated townie or frustrated scum (or even, I suppose, scum deliberately trying to mix things up by throwing emotion into the mix). And unfortunately, the more of it I see the more my judgment of the Andrius situation is clouded.

Even though it goes against what I've been saying about Andrius I think it's a fairly strong town tell. Frustration at being a top lynch candidate encourages scum to try even harder to get out of their situation, not to just accept it. It's possible it's a gambit, of course, but I doubt it. He showed signs of martyrdom yesterday ("Well, MMM, if you are a townie, then you'll probably see me hanging here after a little while. D:"), well before he had any reason to believe a martyrdom gambit was his best chance to avoid a lynch. Overall his reaction today supports the idea that he really was paranoid that he'd be a likely D2 lynch if he was wrong about MMM.

Unvote

.

I will catch up with everything else but I felt that was important enough to not get buried in the middle of a post.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Which is why I believe Andrius when he says he was convinced McGriddle was scum. Classic signs, little content, promising of content without delivering, unjustified votes, bandwagon hopping, you name it McGriddle did it.

What do you mean by "unjustified votes"?

This doesn't excuse Andrius' hammer which reeked of just laying in wait until somebody put MMM in hammer range so that he could blast him. But I already covered this in one of my first posts this game I believe. That the hammer is NOT always the most likely scum. That I look at the other earlier candidates pushing the lynches rather than the deciding blow. SAMP is a perfect example of my promise to stay true to my playstyle. He was the leader of the Triple M lynch, and pushed for it ever since he first argued against SAMP's vote on Exilon.

Obviously, with Triple M turning up town, I had to adjust my thought process a bit. There IS a possibility that MMM Vs. SAMP was a town vs. town exchange, which happens often. I can see that playing out, but I also mentioned my personal belief that the majority of the time scum are the ones who push for immediate lynches of the Day 1 Hammers. Which not only holds true to my targeting of the MMM lynch, in SAMP, but also just happens to be a double whammy in terms of SAMP immediately going for the Andrius hammerer.

So those two tells that guide my personal playstyle, combined with the more practical reasons I have outlined above, lead me to a perfect fit for a SAMP vote. There's no twisting of posts around or misconstruing what SAMP is saying, I am using pure facts based off of my personal philosophy on Mafia Theory as well as what has actually transpired in the game thus far. Does it make me a little scummy? That depends on your interpretation of my actions. But I'm playing to what I believe in is honest & true.

Why are you so bent on pointing out that your attack on me is consistent with your playstyle?

You people and your assumptions. Assuming the scum has a clue is just as silly as assuming they're too dumb to pull something complex, like Quintastic did. When you're presented with a situation like that, if it was a lie, it's easily caught. If it isn't, it affects nothing. So it makes the most sense to try to catch it.

My assumption wasn't "Andrius-scum probably isn't stupid", it was more accurately "Andrius-scum probably isn't suicidal". Which is exactly what mentioning a case, practically begging someone to ask for it, and then not having it would be.

Fair enough on it making the most sense to ask for the case. I was still more interested in his response to my attack though.

It's simple, I'm kind of surprised that you guys don't understand my Andrius/Antifinity comparison.


I call out Antifinity for obvscum tells. You guys defend him by saying that we can't go off of all newbie tells because they could just be an excited new player.

You call out Andrius for obvscum tells. I defend him by saying he's doing a better job rectifying himself from those obv tells than Antifinity is doing.

In a nutshell, both Andrius and Antifinity are scummy due to newbie mistakes, you guys are playing favorites deciding what tells you want to ignore from Antifinity and what tells you want to jump on from Andrius. So I'm going to call you out on the contradiction. It's as simple as that.

No kidding I'm "playing favorites". Figuring out which tells are from scum and which are from town is the entire purpose of the game. Andrius's and Antifinity's actions are not equivalent, and it's baffling that you'd suggest they're so equivalent that it's a "contradiction" to suspect Andrius and not Antifinity.

You keep using that word "obvscum". I do not think it means what you think it means.

Antifinity is getting a free pass for his scumminess simply because he wasn't the hammer.

What in the world? I defended him

before

the hammer.

I wouldn't be surprised if either Andrius OR Antifinity came up scum. The tells complete the tale. But even if it seems scummy for me defending the hammer as hard as I am I'm not going to sit idly by and let one scummy player get a free pass for doing the same thing the other scummy player is doing.

Okay, what exactly are you doing to not let Antifinity "get a free pass"?

You seemed pretty confident that Andrius was town in 175. Why do you now say you wouldn't be surprised if he was scum?

On the topic of killing me. Much of my scummness from the first day is due to the fact that I thought dead people always lost, even if their side won, so I was focusing on clearing my own name more than helping the town because I was playing towards what I thought my win condition was.

I know the previous paragraph sounds scummy to someone, but whoever you are, sorry, I can't find a better way to word it.

Why did you originally think dead players lost? When did you realize this isn't the case?

I think that depends on their personality. I'm definitely of that first type, but I've seen resignation, (self-hammering), and dramatic AtE's by scum twice in my time here. And many times irl. I don't even think you would call it a gambit. More of personality or mood.

I'm not sure if I buy it, but obviously if everyone else feels differently there's not much I can do about that. Which is largely why AtE and 'giving up'/martyrom are generally ignored. As Mustilicor was already aware, they can't be argued.

It really wouldn't make sense for Andrius-scum to take a legitimate defeatist attitude the way he did. If he honestly thought the hammerer was going to get strung up today, most likely he'd have let a townie hammer and take the fall rather than jump on the opportunity to become the next lynch.

@ SAMP!: I think that your change of heart is very interesting. I almost unvoted you because of it, but I WIFOM/turned the chessboard around and saw that maybe you're trying to just blend in, and make it seem like you're being a thoughtful townie, when you're just a scum who will take the opportunity to jump on a townie early on in the DP, so you're not attacked yourself, while removing the vote to blend in with the townies. Hence, my hesitation to unvote for you.

I can see why you'd be concerned with that possibility. Unfortunately I don't see any way to argue against it. v:(v

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

And to SAMP, I've said multiple times on both Day 1 and Day 2 that both Andrius and Antifinities actions are scummy. That's why I would not be surprised if either of them came up scum. But I feel Andrius has done a better job at defending himself and proving his townness than Antifinity has.

Not buying it. These are clearly not the words of someone who "would not be surprised if [Andrius] came up scum":

And why do I believe Andrius (for now)? Because he typed up that entire analysis ASSUMING McGriddle would be alive going into Day 2. He had virtually no clue who was going to die in the night, and was convinced individually that McGriddle was scum. That was obviously not true, but he built up a good case all the same as he waited for the next Day Phase.

Here's the big tell: Scum, whether they are experienced Mafia players or new players, would never put THAT much effort into building a case on a player that they were targeting to kill on Night 1. There would be no rhyme, reason or point to that kind of strategy. Call it WIFOM all you want, but I don't believe our scum is so smart in this game that they believe a double-feint on McGriddle would be an effective way to go about things.

If I have to explain why I support an Antifinity lynch > an Andrius lynch I'm afraid I'll have to lose faith in any possibility that you are town, since you're refusing to accept the answers to my questions and keep asking the same rebuttals in a different way expecting me to give you a different answer that suits your needs. That's not going to happen.

You seem upset at the prospect of

having to explain why you want a lynch

. That's one heck of a scummy attitude.

Vote: TQO

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Unvote

Now I feel like I've been wrong three times in a row.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

This is just a clarifying question for SAMP!, if The Quintastic One thinks you are scum, and you know you aren't, why do you feel like he has the town's best interests in mind?

I'm just saying the unvote at the last minute without a reason seems a bit scummy, but again, I don't really know.

Sorry for being so wishy-washy, I'm still trying to read through the whole wiki. I just found a neat article on scum tells.

I don't like the idea of lynching an uncountered doc claim on the day of the claim. If he's the doc it's likely he'll either get NKed or make a save. If not, he's more likely to be scum. I trust this sort of "hard" evidence much more than my own psychological guessing abilities, so despite the latter pointing towards him being scum I'd rather keep him and get some of the former.

Of course a counter-claim would be even harder evidence, so with that I'd go right back on him.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

If he's the doc it's likely he'll either get NKed or make a save. If not, he's more likely to be scum. I trust this sort of "hard" evidence much more than my own psychological guessing abilities

At the same time, it kind of puts us at LyLo right now. If we decide to trust his claim for now, and eliminate Quintastic (and I'll say Mustilicor out of consensus for the purpose of this argument) from the lynch canidates, we're all left choosing from the other 5 players. And, if we miss then, assuming that Quintastic is telling the truth, all the scum have to do is gamble on the NK and leave Quintastic alive. Which becomes the sort of "hard evidence" that would damn him to a quick lynch.

I mention this as a possibility cause I actually did this once as scum, and it went off without a hitch.

Even though I agree that we probably shouldn't lynch an uncounterclaimed Doc, it's kind of tough because we'd almost have to lynch him D-3 if he's alive for the simple case/possibility that he is just a scum who took a shot at claiming a PR.

Well, yes, there's a risk of mislynch. But there's always a risk of mislynch, no matter what, and I think this plan minimizes that risk.

Currently Super Andrius would be lynched at deadline.

Interestingly enough, Samp, I don't remember you commenting on Exilon much yourself.

I guess I haven't. I never really found him suspicious.

I don’t have too much on Samp! except for the way he behaves generally. Usually, when someone says something to Samp!, he turns it around and uses a question to defend himself and attack at the same time. In other words, he steals the initiative, and turns tables. That sometimes prevents players from commenting further on his defense, since they are forced to look at their own, and answer accordingly, which can end up as being a little distracting. As also stated in the first day, he believes that jumping for good reasons will not make him look scummy – and as I responded, sure, it won’t make him look bad – but it will probably make people lose their credibility on him. And to be honest, I have lost some of it.

Someone who's zero-for-three has more credibility than someone who's zero-for-zero

Eh, I don't think credibility is important really. If my arguments can't stand up for themselves, I shouldn't have people listening to me anyways just because I'm "credible". And if they can stand up for themselves, people shouldn't be ignoring me just because I'm not credible either. It's a form of appeal to authority.

As for distraction, to be honest it's not my biggest concern. I think if someone's attacking me and I don't have a good read on them, then yeah I should be questioning them. I don't know how I could do that in a less distracting way.

Ahem. To reiterate, I asked you guys what you thought about requesting player by player analyses from everyone.

Sorry, I did miss that I don't see the utility in it, honestly. But then again, right now I'm so stumped that I'm not even sure what I should be asking for.

And I would of protected you throughout this entire game so long as I was alive

DON'T ADMIT THIS. Assuming you are the doc, like CS said the scum may try to NK someone other than you to WIFOM the town into lynching you. If they do, it's to the town's benefit that they don't know who you're protecting.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Alright, but do you only converse with people you find suspicious?

Well, no. I don't see anything in particular to converse with him about though. v:|v

TQO: I think I've made my position pretty clear on this one. Almost certainly scum, making a desperate power role claim and getting lucky. I'll admit the possibility that he isn't scum, but even if he is innocent, then wouldn't we want to establish that now? If the scum follow the strategy he suggested, then lynching him tomorrow will guarantee we lose, but if we lynch him today, then the consequences would be no worse than lynching any other townie, since he has negated his ability, both by being role blocked and by making his protection target very obvious.

"If the scum follow the strategy he suggested, then lynching him tomorrow will guarantee we lose"
Not if we lynch correctly today.

"but if we lynch him today, then the consequences would be no worse than lynching any other townie"
But they would be worse than

correctly lynching

.

Why are you ruling out the prospect of a scum lynch today?

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

SAMP:

It's not often you seem at all hesitant to vote someone. You appear, at the moment, to be looking in Antifinity's direction. You admit to thinking him town from D1; is this what leads you to withhold your vote for the moment? If so, what about his current behavior supports that supposition to you?

Yeah I'd rather have my vote on someone usually. The problem is, right now I don't know who to suspect. Since I now think I was wrong on both Andrius and on TQO, that would mean of course that the scumpair would be two of you, Exilon, Anti, and CS. None of whom I see any scum tells off of. And while I did read a few games before signing up, to get some examples of how scum behave differently from town, one thing I didn't learn in reading games is what sort of questions to ask when you're stuck. The question I asked Antifinity was the only thing I could think of that might help me find scum. For you, Exilon, and CS, I don't even know. v:(v

I didn't question him because my read on him changed, I questioned him because I'm not as confident in my read since I now have more town reads than there are townies. Making it lose value, like a town read inflation if you will.

As for my little "slip" that was because I'd only ever played this game with a single "killer" and so I figured that if we didn't lynch TQO, we would certainly be lynching a townie.

You seem to realize that there's more than one "killer" in these posts:

I don't have much time right now, but I'm totally on the Andrius/Quintastic bandwagon.

Also, I more strongly suspect the The Quintastic One/Andrius link then the rest of you, because I know I'm town.

Of course, to be certain you have to know that I'm town, or that Andrius/TQO is scum, so you all can't be certain yet.

So what gives?

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

The first point (Anti has only played in games with one killer) would be the most logical cause of the second point (Anti forgot that this game has two killers). So I don't think it's a contradiction.

I'm sticking with my town read on Anti. None of his posts since being attacked come off as dishonest, bitter, or condescending - these being the most common traits of cornered scum. It's just a straightforward explanation of what everyone finds suspicious about him. I don't believe a player of his level of experience would be so level headed, unless he knew what he was saying was right.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

which is kind of scummy, seeing as you're setting up another town death.

What do you mean another?

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

As for the Cop, I doubt we have one, at this point.

Why?

This is a departure from your earlier posts, when you were couldn't see that I was panicking over it the entire time. Does my getting to L1 and then Mustilicor unvoting put you in a position where you felt you had to unvote?

No. Mustilicor had nothing to do with my unvote.

-Jumping on my ass right at the metaphorical "dawn" of D2

Well, yeah. What am I supposed to do, not bring up my case until the middle of the day for no particular reason? :?::?:

-Refusing to acknowledge (the fact that I might have been a bit paranoid about being lynched after MMM's turning to town) until after Mustilicor had unvoted

Actually I acknowledged that possibility right from the start:

This is the biggest scum-tell. After hammering MMM, Andrius spends the rest of the post dwelling on what happens if MMM turns up town. Why?

Because he's a townie, paranoid that he's wrong? No way. If he was paranoid he wouldn't have dropped the hammer so fearlessly.

He dwelled on the possibility of MMM turning up town because

he knew it was going to happen

.

I didn't think it was likely then (the start of D2) because it's easy for scum to throw out comments like the ones you made D1 to feign paranoia when they don't mean it. When you actually acted like you meant it with the whole defeatism deal, it was more persuasive.

-For giving a really suspicious, and un-characteristic unvote (from voting for me) that he was unable to defend when pressed (by me)

You didn't "press" anything, you just argued that you couldn't rule me out from my unvote, because theoretically scum could've unvoted too. Which is true. There's nothing for me to say about that, except that it's about as "pressing" as asking someone if they're scum.

How is me unvoting you uncharacteristic? It's my fourth unvote.

-For his close-mindedness. Unwilling to see that I may have been concerned about MMM turning town (which I thought meant my subsequent lynching), and his weird form of questioning (which was brought up by Exilon or TQO).

-Jumping off the TQO BW once he roleclaimed as Doc. Granted, we all put the parking break on, but if he has so sure that TQO was scum, would a PR roleclaim really be enough to sway his vote that much? Or is he merely looking for an easy lynch?

An

uncountered

roleclaim. As much as I trust my psychological guesswork, it holds no candle to objective facts.

-Looking for easy lynches. Hopping on the hammerer's back (me) right at the start of D2, then jumping on TQO until he Doc roleclaimed, then not really voting or doing much of anything constructive, besides working on the Anti case, who he says is town.

Seriously? If I wanted the easy lynch I'd have jumped on Anti.

And yeah I admit I haven't contributed towards a lynch lately. I guess I could vote for either Exilon, Mustilicor, or Civil Scum but honestly I don't think it'll help. Especially not when my case would basically just be "well I don't find you as townie as everyone else". I mean yeah I'm usually an aggressive voter but in this situation it just wouldn't help.

Also please answer 340.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

This is a departure from your earlier posts, when you were couldn't see that I was panicking over it the entire time. Does my getting to L1 and then Mustilicor unvoting put you in a position where you felt you had to unvote?

I just checked, I unvoted before Mustilicor.

Vote: Civil Scum

Even though I'm not a fan of "gut voting" there's not really much else I can do. I don't have any scum reads, and I don't want to get on either the Andrius or Antifinity wagons, and I DEFINITELY don't want to do nothing for the rest of the day.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

There's really no way I can defend myself against that Samp.

Yeah I know, that's why I'd rather not vote based on guy suspicion . Well, that and the fact that it's unlikely to convince anyone else to get on. But I honestly don't see what else I can do.

How is me unvoting you uncharacteristic? It's my fourth unvote.

Then your voting pattern can be seen as wishy-washy. /scummy

but it's the same number of times you've unvoted

Which of my unvotes, if any, would you say were unwarranted?

As for the picture of i-don't-know-who, it failed to make anyone laugh

Oh no you di'int. I don't mind if you insult me personally, I can forgive insults of my family, and in moments of extreme self-restraint I can even let slights on my username slide. But call the "WRONG" scene from Superman Returns not funny?

We're going to have to take this outside.

and you effectively dodged the question. Answer please, without a sarcastic and/or smart-ass photo.

I don't see how I "dodged the question", seeing as how there, y'know, wasn't a question at all? All it was was an accusation, and a patently untrue one at that. As such, I choose to stick with Lex.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

8. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene;

all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.

I was hoping to get another chance to defend Andrius (although admittedly it would just be the same defense as the one I used in 211 except worded differently) but oh well.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Before anything else happens today everyone should say if they're the cop or not. I'm not.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

A single claim does not mean jack. If a cop claims with a guilty, it means we have a guaranteed 50% chance of lynching right by lynching either the claimed cop or his target. Otherwise, we have only a 40% chance of lynching right. A cop claim with an innocent doesn't rule out the claimed innocent but it does eliminate pairings, since that person could only be scum with the claimed cop, again reducing the chances of a mislynch. Even a claim with no useful results is analyzable information (for example, some scummy self-preservation plays, such as active lurking, are also often used by power roles, so can be forgiven if a cop does them). In LyLo, maximizing the chances of a correct lynch takes priority over protecting the power roles. After all it doesn't matter if the cop is shielded from nightkills if the game ends before the next night phase!

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

I would not accept a cop claim, even a good one, at this point. A cop claim with some results yesterday I could trust, and could have been verified in one way or another. But it would be EXTREMELY difficult for me to believe Antifinity or Exilon are the cop (or anyone else for that matter, though neither of you two are claiming). I agree it's uses don't extend beyond those probability adjustments/likliehoods, though I'd never thought of them like that.

Knowing that an out-of-the-blue cop-claim at LyLo is essentially worthless compared to a D-2 claim here, why did you wait to bring it up?

A D-2 claim isn't necessarily very useful, and if it's not a fakeclaim it almost assuredly will get the cop killed or roleblocked. Obviously it can be useful, depending on the result, which is why it's better for the cop to decide whether or not to claim before LyLo.

I also don't think a cop claim today would be worthless, except maybe if the cop had been roleblocked or investigated the NKed townie both nights. And even then not

completely

worthless, see my previous post.

Now I feel like I've been wrong three times in a row. Sad

Declaring himself wrong about The Quintastic One right after he claimed doc. In his next post however he suggests his unvote merely a precaution with

I trust this sort of "hard" evidence much more than my own psychological guessing abilities, so despite the latter pointing towards him being scum I'd rather keep him and get some of the former.

This doesn't read as someone who thinks himself wrong. Possibly an attempt to sweep what he realised was a slip under the rug?

I didn't declare myself wrong, I had a

feeling

I was wrong. Before then I thought TQO had to be scum, that was the first impression I had got since that I could be wrong. Thus, my caution.

I'm also finding the consistent defense of Antifinity pretty unwarranted. In his post iso 20 he points out a serious contradiction of Antifinity's, yet by the next post he's defending him again. He later goes on to vote Civil Scum on gut.

And when I pointed it out, he explained it. (post 308) It was a believable explanation that didn't seem like backtracking, there was no bitterness or OMGUS; basically there was nothing at all in that post that seemed like he was trying to dishonestly avoid suspicion. Hence I still think he's town.

Seconded. This is one of the things I was actually saving for later, mainly because of Antifinity. Someone claiming cop at this moment practically implies he/she is actually scum, because Quintastic's death points that way (if there was a roleblocker, they could have left him alive, roleblocking him and effectively rendering him useless.). That said, 2 mafia goons+doc seems a much more probable setup at this time.

My wonder is if that crossed Samp's mind. Asking for a cop claim at this time, like Samp did, does not seem like a thing scum would do - mainly because scum knows if there is one or not, rendering that question unnecessary, unless there was some other purpose behind it.

It did cross my mind. I didn't think it had much merit since I was still assuming TQO had protected Mustilicor (thus scum could leave him alive either way without risk), but now that I think about it the twilight talk could have changed his mind, and more importantly it could have made the scum think that he did.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Well, sure. Offering up a strategy that could, on its surface, appear to offer such a boost in probability of town success... well, it seems exceptionally pro-town! Only it's shallow; chances are there is no roleblocker for reasons above, which means that chances are there is no cop, and scum

knows

this. It makes it a very safe thing to do to seem to try to help the town as a whole out. And a very attractive thing, if you know there are weaknesses for hard numbers out there to prey on.

I didn't expect to look more pro-town for suggesting this. I've never seen a player get any form of townie points for calling for a massclaim.

It wouldn't stand out to me if SAMP! had a history of cooperative play in this game, but he doesn't really. Not to say that he's been uncooperative exactly, just that his play has consisted of going after his current suspects and defending himself when necessary, not rallying any action.

Apart from massclaiming and its variants, I don't see anything else I'd have to "rally" the town into doing. v:?v

The reason I point it out is because I have a hard time understanding going with an evidenceless gut vote in light of a slip-up that took being challenged twice to get an explanation satisfactory at face value.

It's not just that Antifinity's explanation is satisfactory at face value, it's that he didn't answer with the typical scum motives:

dishonestly

avoiding suspicion or flinging it back at someone else. Instead Anti accepted it, which is usually the last thing scum wants to do. Because of that, I believe he's town, so of course I'm not going to be voting for him.

When you first begin suspecting someone, would say the read generally begins with gut or logic? Do you only use logic to justify your gut feelings to others?

I always use logic when possible. I only used gut for the CS vote because logic wasn't getting me any further than "by process of elimination I should vote for either CS, Exilon, or Mustilicor."

It did cross my mind. I didn't think it had much merit since I was still assuming TQO had protected Mustilicor (thus scum could leave him alive either way without risk),

but now that I think about it the twilight talk

could have changed his mind, and more importantly it could have made the scum think that he did.

It obviously made the scum think it was now unclear who Quintastic (more on Quintastic's Case later) was going to protect, which IS why he would be the smartest and safest Noght kill out of everyone else.

Now, moving On:
You, I believe, have just made a slip.

For starters, if it did cross your mind, then you'd know there wasn't much room for a cop claim. Your justification for this is only applicable if Quintastic was alive... but he isn't. In any way, by seeing Quintastic dead, you would have reevaluated the odds and would have come to the conclusion that there was no need to ask for a cop claim. (Unless I have misunderstood the meaning behind the sentence, if I did, please correct me). Yet you still asked it.

I did reevaluate the odds after TQO died. They didn't change because I was still under the assumption that TQO was protecting Mustilicor no matter what, and thus I reasoned that both Goon-Goon or Goon-RB had equal ability to freely NK someone else.

Another thing to be noticed is that you change the verb you’re using.
‘It did cross my mind’; ‘I had been assuming’ ; ‘but NOW that I think about it’.

Let me see if I can break this down. So it crossed your mind before Quintastic appeared dead, but only NOW you thought about it. And apart from that, from the bolded part on until the end of the sentence, it’s nothing but speculation on Quintastic death and is not justification to the prior statement.

It crossed my mind after he died. The bold part is justification for me changing my mind: I realize now that Goon-RB could leave TQO alive easily and Goon-Goon couldn't, and since they didn't, they are most likely to be Goon-Goon.

I don’t think you are the kind of player who would answer “no, it didn’t cross my mind”. You provided a mathematical-based reasoning for the “cop-claim”, which suggests you tried to consider all possibilities, and find the best method to go about it Day 3. Missing such a crucial point as quintastic being Nightkilled and consequent setup implications in your calculations does not compute with that stated in the last sentence.

Ok, I'm done

I didn't miss that TQO was night-killed. It's the twilight talk, where TQO seemed more suspicious of Mustilicor than when he declared he would protect her N2 no matter what, that I had not factored in.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Anti: Why are you suspicious of me?

I'm most suspicious of Mustilicor right now, mainly because of this quote:

...Civil scum, you're taking my 'nooo' out of context. I objected to Quintastic hammering like that, but that wasn't what that particular post was about - it was playfully being exasperated there was something I needed to wait on. Quintastic posted at the same time as me and I hadn't seen his hammer at that point. Pay attention and please do not misquote me in the future.

She seems bitter that CS has interpreted her post this way. Townies usually aren't bitter about being suspected.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

It's not just that Antifinity's explanation is satisfactory at face value, it's that he didn't answer with the typical scum motives: dishonestly avoiding suspicion or flinging it back at someone else. Instead Anti accepted it, which is usually the last thing scum wants to do.

It was satisfactorily ridiculous. I have to say again, that those "motive's", more accurately->inclinations, are more personality based than alignment based. I think I had offered this opinion of mine earlier as well. Sure he accepted that he had made a mental error, but it would have been difficult to deny. You really expected him as scum to go, "Nuh-uuuh!"? What he did do was accept it and then try to answer it. I don't think that goes very far in this case saying if the explanation is a lie or not.

I wouldn't expect scum-Antifinity to just deny it, no. What I would expect, especially with the pressure on him the way it was, is using dishonest tactics

as well as an explanation

to increase his chances of getting out of the spotlight.

It obviously made the scum think it was now unclear who Quintastic (more on Quintastic's Case later) was going to protect, which IS why he would be the smartest and safest Noght kill out of everyone else.

Anyone feel free to call WIFOM on this, but doesn't the above point from Exilon sort of clear Mustilicor? Or do you think it's possible that Exilon is mentioning this for that purpose?

I have to admit, I don't see what you're getting at.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Except that I've been questioned before and haven't reacted in a 'bitter' manner. I suppose you could argue that this is the first time I've been seriously suspected, but I was also quoted entirely out of context. Certainly it is understandable to narrow one's eyes at a post that makes actions look suspicious entirely through misrepresentation.

Well I don't understand it, or at least, I don't understand why a townie would do so. Misrepresentation isn't a big deal for a townie, since they have a legitimate explanation for the action being misrepped. Scum don't, so they have more reason to be upset about it.

Quick question to SAMP!: would you say your use of logic is clearly outlined in your posts?

Apart from the CS vote, yes.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

And if Samp thinks you and Antifinity are townies, then he must suspect that the scum are me and Exilon. Though, I haven't heard him talk about this yet D-3.

My only good town read is Anti. I think the scum is two of you, Exilon, and Mustilicor.

Well I don't understand it, or at least, I don't understand why a townie would do so. Misrepresentation isn't a big deal for a townie, since they have a legitimate explanation for the action being misrepped. Scum don't, so they have more reason to be upset about it.

You're entirely ignoring that there are more factors at play than scum versus townie when people react to things. Most of your reads suffer from this; you seem to have have a very concrete model in your mind of how scum behaves, meaning your evaluation of someone's role in the game is born entirely of how well they match this model.

I'm not ignoring that there are more factors, I just don't see any that come into play in this particular situation. For instance, I considered that a townie might react that way because they're easily upset, but that prospect doesn't match with your logical playstyle. ("Emotion is an evolutionarily outdated decision-making mechanism", after all ) Even so, I realize that I'm fallible, and I may have missed some other factor. That's why I'm bringing it up and giving you a chance to explain rather than being all VOTE: MUSTILICOR OBVSCUM LYNCH LYNCH LYNCH DIE SCUM DIE.

May I ask how long you've played? Don't misunderstand the question as an insult; I'm merely wondering if this is a matter of experience that I lack rather than the broad assumption I can't help but view it as.

I only played a couple of games before this one, and flaked out of both of them before getting to a night phase in either one. If I sound experienced it's because I've read up on mafia, a lot, between flaking those games and joining this one.

When searching for tells that could be influenced by personality, it is only sensible to check to see if these tells are displayed in other situations. You don't have a meta to work with, but you do have different situations in this thread. Consider some of my interactions with Andrius. Consider my behavior towards Quintastic's logic before he ever suspected me. I've even been somewhat terse with Antifinity if one wishes to include bullying someone into a specific action. With all of this in mind, how is it not more sensible from your perspective to conclude I am snippy by nature?

Particularly

when said snippiness does not even consistently apply to exchanges in which I am being suspected.

Looking through your iso, I honestly don't find you snippy. On the contrary, you come off as a genuinely nice person. Even when you threatened Anti with a vote if he didn't give a suspect list, you apologized afterward precisely because you didn't want to seem like a bully. So I don't understand why you say you are snippy by nature.

I just thought of a plausible reason for Samp!'s cop thing. Samp! do you have a legitimate reason for asking what most people see as a useless question, or was it just you not realizing the futility?

I didn't realize the futility. To be fair though, I still don't think the question was completely useless. Even if I had noticed the twilight talk, and realized that there was

probably

not a cop, I would still have asked for a claim, just to be safe. There was a chance that a newb scum would claim cop knowing that there'd be no counter, or even that there actually was a cop and the scum just really wanted TQO dead for whatever reason.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Confused Looking through your iso, I honestly don't find you snippy. On the contrary, you come off as a genuinely nice person. Even when you threatened Anti with a vote if he didn't give a suspect list, you apologized afterward precisely because you didn't want to seem like a bully. So I don't understand why you say you are snippy by nature.

D'aww. <3

Alright then, perhaps my knowledge of myself outside of mafia is coloring my view of my actions within it.

In that case I have no further defense, I suppose, except that having my actions falsely represented irks me on a personal level, and I responded thusly (coated with the same passive-aggressive politeness I have used elsewhere, at that).

I do quite believe emotion to be the outdated decision-making mechanism I called it, mind; I simply realize I am not invulnerable to it.

What do you mean by the bolded sentence?

I have to do a thematic separation here. You’ve stated that you hadn’t factored the twilight talk when reevaluating the odds of cop-claim and game setup, but the thing is that, as you pointed on the first quote, the twilight talk is completely irrelevant to know the kind of setup we have based on Quintastic’s death. What I mean is:

You could have simply put two and two together by using Quintastic’s death and deduce from there that this setup was most likely goon-goon, which eliminates the need of a cop claim. Still, as you said, you reevaluated the odds after Quintastic’s death. Therefore, you should have been able to know there was no need for a cop claim just based on that.
However, you’re adding that you hadn’t factored the twilight talk. Still, there was no need for it to be factored! In the end, this leads to the following:

-It did cross your mind that, by Quintastic’s death, there was no need for a cop claim.
-Yet, you asked for the cop claim.
-Your justification was that you hadn’t factored the twilight talk, which is irrelevant to determining the most likely setup.

The first item isn't quite accurate. I did see that TQO had died and reanalyzed the situation, but I still came to the conclusion that both setups were plausible. This being because I was still thinking that TQO was sticking with his plan to protect Mustilicor, and more importantly I thought that the scum would be thinking that as well. In that situation, neither RB-Goon nor Goon-Goon would be threatened by the possibility of a successful protection. Thus, I did not think that a Goon-Goon pair would have more motivation to kill TQO than a RB-Goon pair. The twilight talk made me realize that scum had no idea who he was protecting, which would force Goon-Goon to kill him but leave RB-Goon the chance to block him and kill anyone at will. Thus, his death is much more likely under Goon-Goon. Is that clear?

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Should someone do a quick vote/unvote, just to make sure someone gets lynched at deadline?

If we lynch someone, then the town has at least a chance of winning. I'm not saying its a serious risk, but if we get near the deadline, its something to consider.

Besides that, I want to give Zorblag something to do, since no one can really vote without being like 99% certain of who the scum is

If we get near the deadline, everyone should just vote, period. If there are no townies voting at deadline, scum can just throw a vote on anyone and get the deadline lynch unopposed.

Hum-hum, I see. It clears up much of it, yes. Thank you =)
It did confuse me a little; so I tried to break down some possibilities.

Code: Select all

 How to equate Quintastic's Death to Goon-Goon

Without factoring the twilight talk = Assuming Mustilicor is being protected no matter what)

If setup is Goon-Goon, they can kill anyone they want.

If setup is Goon-RB, they can RB Quintastic and kill Mustilicor or someone else; OR they can RB who they think is cop and kill someone else.

(Factoring the twilight talk = unclear protection)

If Goon-Goon, they have to kill Quintastic.

If Goon-RB, they can RB Quintastic and kill who they believe is cop, OR they can RB who they believe is cop and kill Quintastic.

Now, since quintastic died, we can eliminate the possibilities that mention Quintastic as not being a nightkill target. So, we're left with:

Without factoring the twilight talk = Assuming Mustilicor is being protected no matter what)

If setup is Goon-Goon, they can kill anyone they want.

They can RB who they think is cop and kill someone else.
(this is possible because there are 6 people. Two are scum, one is Quintastic. Mustilicor is being protected. That leaves either 3 or 4 people if we assume Mustilicor is scum. From the three (or 4), one can RB'd and another one killed.)
 

(Factoring the twilight talk = unclear protection)

If Goon-Goon, they have to kill Quintastic.

If Goon-RB they could have RB'd who they believe is cop and kill Quintastic. (this possibility actually seems better because one can assume the cop would investigate Quintastic, therefore removing him as an "auto-lynch" day 3.)

Do you believe that is accurate according to what you said?

Yes. I didn't actually look into what scum-pairing would kill who before TQO died though, at that point I was just thinking "anyone could die, wait and see". So I really only did the second half of this thought process.

(Still, that thought poses a bigger question because of a possibility I hadn't remembered before. If there isn't any mistake in my reasoning, then even after factoring the twilight talk it is possible for the setup to be goon-goon or goon-RB...)

Yes, it's possible, which is why I'd have asked for a cop claim even if I'd been aware of the protection uncertainty. However, I think the scum would have wanted to keep TQO alive if possible, so as to mislynch him today. The scum must have thought he'd be an extremely easy mislynch after the way he hammered Andrius. With such a great incentive not to kill him, I think it's far more likely that the group that didn't want to risk a no-NK night would kill him than the one that had the freedom to kill someone else.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Samp, don't you think we're both scum? And we're obviously cannabalizing?

what makes you say that?

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Ummm, because you've said recently that you don't think Mustilicor is scum

I don't recall saying that

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

At this point I think it's fairly unlikely that the scum-pair is CS and Exilon. When an argument reaches center stage that's a good sign that at least one of the participants has a genuine disagreement with the other. CS seems more enthusiastic about it, which is a town tell, although it's a tell that's easy to mix up with playstyle differences so I'm not too certain about it.

However I just can't see any scum-pairing that doesn't include Mustilicor. So if someone has any reason I shouldn't vote her, best get it out now.

Another scummy thing I notice about Mustilicor:

I don't know. I still can't really see it. Or rather, I can't see it nearly as easily as I can see the possibilities of others as scum. Why bother yanking the reins on that MMM lynch like he did instead of just lying low while it happened and protest afterwards? He could have gotten away with that easily, I think. It was quite fast.

This post doesn't seem to match up with her "consider all possibilities" style. Particularly considering her MMM vs. me post, and the bolded portion of this post about Anti:

After all, if he were hasty scum who only belatedly realized his first post or so was unfortunate, how could he attempt to patch this over? Would he 180? Such a thing might actually call more attention to his errors. As such, it would make more sense for him to actually mimic his initial playstyle to remain consistent, to constantly throw out tiny tells until we're conditioned into dismissing anything suspicious from him.

Do I suspect this is what happening? Well... no. Not really. But I'm not going to let my guard against the possibility slip.

It certainly seems weird to say the least that she's letting Exilon off easily.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

This post doesn't seem to match up with her "consider all possibilities" style. Particularly considering her MMM vs. me post, and the bolded portion of this post about Anti:

It certainly seems weird to say the least that she's letting Exilon off easily.

Except that I'm not. It's clear even in the post you quoted that I acknowledge the possibility that he is scum. "Or rather, I can't see it nearly as easily as I can see the possibilities of others as scum." I was communicating that despite the things Civil Scum brought up, Exilon still rated as the most probable town player to me, precisely because other people's play came across as MORE scummy than his.

I can see that, but it still comes off as a completely different attitude than before. Like with that quote about Anti, even though you said it wasn't likely the case, you were still wary. While in this case you don't seem nervous at all about writing off Exilon.

So, Mustilicor is probably town, because if one of the scum voted, and it didn't result in a quick lynch, it either means the target is scum, or that the person casting the vote is scum.

This means that as a scum, it puts you under a great deal of suspicion, something scum would probably try to avoid like crazy around now.

Scum would certainly be willing to put themselves under suspicion to get a mislynch at LyLo. I'll look at some other newbie games and see how often the first player voting in LyLo was scum or town.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Town puts first vote on town: 889, 886, 899, 878, 900, 896, 880, 897, 887, 882, 876, 848, 846, 845, 844, 842, 841, 838, 835
Town puts first vote on scum: 916, 911, 905, 890, 907, 893, 894, 871, 843, 837
Scum puts first vote on town: 869, 891, 885, 892, 849, 840

I used both 3 person and 5 person LyLos. To keep this simple I only used the last day for any one game (meaning if the game was in 5 person LyLo and town lynched correctly and went to 3 person LyLo I only used the 3 person LyLo).

Even if I consider that Anti is not scum and thus take the "town voting scum" possibility out of consideration, these results still suggest it's more likely that the first vote would come from town than scum. So I guess Anti has a point, albeit not an extremely reliable one.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

I used both 3 person and 5 person LyLos. To keep this simple I only used the last day for any one game (meaning if the game was in 5 person LyLo and town lynched correctly and went to 3 person LyLo I only used the 3 person LyLo).

Just a quick note: I think it overthrows some of the odds if you try to reason out the chances for this case based on 3-Player Lylo's. This is because this is a 5-P Lylo and we don't know if the game is going to end right away or not.

Obviously we have more "town votes town" because that's the best setup for scum to quicklynch at - any other setup makes it hard for scum to misquicklynch succesfully. Taking that into account, maybe it would be better if you tried to see which 5-P Lylo's went into 3-P and the setup in those cases instead of checking for 3-P Lylo's and basing your results on that.

I hope I was clear enough :s (if not, just say something )

Good point, I'll look through just 5-P LyLo situations and see if the results are particularly different.

And Civil Scum's our CS! If he was scum, would he leave a vote for a townie sitting there all day while his partner flailed?

This doesn't follow, since he hasn't posted at all since you voted. It should be clear that it's not me and Exilon though, since we had ample opportunity to quicklynch between 481 and 484.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

5-person LyLos only this time:

Town votes town: 886, 899, 887, 882, 844, 835
Town votes scum: 916, 911, 905, 890, 907, 893, 871, 885, 846
Scum votes town: 897, 892

So it's even more likely that Mustilicor is town, and more likely that Anti is scum. Ugh.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

No hammer here.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

SAMP: Why exactly is that 'ugh' ? Is it because the waters have been muddied in your mind? I must admit, it actually almost comes across that you were searching for statistics in hope that they would support the case you were trying to push, and are disappointed that they do not. But it's hard to imagine scum would be so careless as to allow that to creep into their post. Hm.

I

was

searching for statistics in hope they would support my case. When Anti said that voting first made you town, I wanted to prove him wrong. And in fact, I expected the statistics to be close enough to even that I could. So I go scour newbie games for statistics, which is really dull work, so dull in fact that I put it off a bit on the second go-around. And the result of all this dull work is that I'm wrong. That's why ugh.

You post especially to note you're not hammering. Why is that?

It proves I'm definitely not scum with you, CS, or Exilon; since in any of those cases I would hammer.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Hahahaha. SAMP! xD That is not how you are supposed to approach statistical analysis! If you have a forgone conclusion before reaching for the statistics... goodness, so very unscientific.

v:(v I don't see what's wrong with the way I went about it. I admit I both wanted and expected it to support my argument, but I didn't let that bias affect the process and I did concede the point afterwords.

I rather gathered, and now have had confirmed, that when SAMP mentioned he was going to go search for those statistics, he was assuming he was correct. He trapped himself into presenting them before he realized they wouldn't support his case. Sure he could have tried to twist the evidence in hopes that nobody would check up on him - but he mentioned earlier, regarding Andrius, that it would be suicide for scum to lie in a way that somebody can easily check up on. He knew that wasn't a viable option. He was frustrated with having to present something against his own case. As town, realizing the statistics actually were NOT on his side shouldn't have been an 'ugh' moment, but a 'hmm' one.

I do try not to be frustrated with being wrong, but realizing the player I've been basically the only defender of for the whole game may well be scum is a lot more frustrating than you give it credit for.

It's not that I'm saying someone should have absolute faith in statistics. There is a minority as well as a majority, after all. It's just that such frustration indicates he was planning to use something he doesn't hold much stock in to push a case (as if he did find it truly relevant, it might have influenced his thinking).

It has influenced my thinking. I straight up said as much in 497, directly before the u-word.

It proves I'm definitely not scum with you, CS, or Exilon; since in any of those cases I would hammer.

Obviously one possibility excluded from this.

No hammer here.

I should hope you can explain why. I have a pretty good

Why do you quote my explanation for my no-hammer post and then immediately ask for an explanation for my no-hammer post?

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Out of "curiosity", how the world does you not being scum with the three of us say anything about whether or not Antifinity is scum.

Uhh... it doesn't?

A few pages back you said I was your towniest read. What happened?

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

I would think one's declaration that they're not hammering somebody would be based around that person's alignment, so your "explanation" is not an explanation of that.

I said that I wasn't hammering in that post only, to prove that I can't possibly be scum with you, Mustilicor, or Exilon. Not because I think Anti is town.

FoS: CS

for twisting that post way out of proportion. I could see a newbie player being unaware of what I'm doing, but not an IC and especially not

after I freaking explain it

. Especially when I've in no way defended him since pulling up those statistics.

Tell you what, I'll even prove I'm not defending him.

Vote: Antifinity

May you go down tomorrow.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Awww, I was right about Anti all along. I guess I know now not to let statistics get in the way of my reads.

Good job CS and Mustilicor.