Newbie 888 - Game Over!

[MichelSableheart]

I have read the rules, I have read my role pm, I have no questions, I am ready to play.

/confirm

[MichelSableheart]

I'm your IC for this game. I've completed a reasnable number of games, all of which can be found on my Wiki page (accessible through the button WIKI at the bottom of my post). That page is unfortunately slightly outdated, because newbie 873 and mini normal 869 have been completed since I last updated.

Besides playing to have a fun game, I'm also here to help you get accustomed to mafiascum, and to explain things that may be unclear. If during the game questions would arise, feel free to ask them.

[MichelSableheart]

Good, it's time to get things under way. Our top priority at the moment should be to find the scum, but that is virtually impossible unless we get some information available. For that, we need discussion.

A widely accepted way to get discussion started is voting on non-existant to weak tells. This is sometimes called the random voting stage (or RVS). That is somewhat of a poor name, though, because actually voting randomly does not help town much. If a vote is truly random, it doesn't contain any information whatsoever. Voting arbitrary is better, because then we can wonder if scum would vote their partners, or ignore them, or...

Voting is not the only way to get discussion started though. I guess I'll do a bit of questioning in this game.

Kyiv, why were you interested in the experience levels of the other players?

Lastsurvivor, what made you decide to place your random vote on Kunkstar?

Kunkstar, you voted Lastsurvivor because he voted you. Do you believe that he is more likely to be scum because of his vote?

Medix, what is your reason for choosing Randommaster out of all players in this game?

[MichelSableheart]

Confirmation is a pretty boring stage of the game. Especially when it's dragged out like that. I wanted to call attention to the game, since it dropped so low on the list.

That doesn't actually answer my question. It explains why you posted, but it doesn't answer why you chose the experience levels of players as the topic of conversation.

I think you may very well be avoiding the question intentionally there. Did you perhaps want to figure out who could easily be fooled and who should be high on your list of nightkill targets?

Vote: Kyiv

Why did I choose him? Pure randomness, I don't have any idea about the other players, so I pick some random person. I'm sure in some time I'll get a clue.

Sure, but even then you need to have some way to make the decission. Did you throw dice? Look at the playerlist to see which name you found interesting? Choose the player whose name came second to last alphabetically?

Patriots, you claim that your vote was the result of a completely, objectively random proces. If you are speaking the truth, your vote does not actually help the town win this game. If you truly determined your vote completely randomly, it contains no information whatsoever, and therefore does not help with starting discussion.

[MichelSableheart]

@Michel:
Do you agree that many games start out with a RVS (Random Voting Stage)?

At this point in the game RV's are there to get people to talk or try to get scum to slip up. It can actually greatly help the town because you never know if Kyiv or whoever gets voted gets really defensive over a random vote. To me that's a scum slip and can help the town win.

Allthough it is called the Random Voting Stage, votes should not actually be random, and definately not announced random. The problem with a vote that is actually randomly generated and of which everybody knows it is actually randomly generated, is that everybody knows there was no intent behind the vote. Because of that the vote can't really be discussed. As a result, a vote that is actually random does not help with getting discussion started.

On the other hand, if you vote arbitrary ("I'm voting you because you are a patriots fan"), then at least there was a concious decission to vote for player A instead of someone else. As a result, in an arbitrary vote there is a bit of information present that can be discussed. See, for example, the reaction to Magic Trainer's vote of Kyiv. "You claim that you only voted because he posted above you, but I believe you actually wanted to bandwagon."

--------------------------
RandomMasters question about editing has been answered completely already.

--------------------------

Someones got to start the game. You pick a random person and create a reason to fit. What would you do if you had to make a vote to start the game?

I personally tend to look for small tells in confirmation, or start questioning some players on their meta.

---------------------------
I don't like Magic Trainer's accusation of Walrus for lurking. There is a big difference between lurking and inactivity. Inactivity is simply not being there, which was likely the case for Walrus, given the date this game started. Lurking on the other hand, is being present, but intentionally avoiding to post content in order to avoid drawing attention to yourself. I believe that the last post by Walrus shows that is not the case for him currently.

----------------------------

@MichelSableheart: How would knowing the experience level of the players in the game possibly be for finding NK targets when we are playing in a newbie game where we are pre-labeled by our levels of experience?

The SE and IC slots are based on experience on mafiascum. However, there is a big difference between a player who plays his first game of mafia ever, and someone who has a lot of experience on other sites and face to face but is only now coming to mafiascum. The latter player is far more likely to use the information from the early days to identify the scum later on, and is therefore a more important nightkill target.

-----------------------------
Lastsurvivor, why the unvote?

-----------------------------
Kyiv being at L-2 (Lynch minus 2, 2 votes away from lynch) is a bit much. Similary, I think a bit of pressure on medix is warranted. He has not yet produced any original content.

Unvote: Kyiv

Vote: Medix

[MichelSableheart]

Do you accuse me as a scum because I'm not throwing arguments yet? It's a very weak reason to accuse someone.

I claimed it was likely you are scum because everything you did was either irrelevant, answering others, or copying the opinion of others. You didn't actually add anything new.

@Kyiv: the accusation wasn't that he didn't produce much, the accusation was that he didn't produce anything original.

@Magic trainer: you forgot to put the name of the player you are quoting between "". A quote shows up correctly if you you put it this way:

Code: Select all

[quote="Magic trainer"]What Magic trainer said.[/quote]

I like the pressure on Magic Trainer, and was surprised to see that he had no votes on him at the top of this page. Walrushelmet, why did you FoS instead of vote him in post #67?

The accusation that Lastsurvivor responded defensive in his second post of the game seems to be much ado about nothing. There are far better tells around.

IMO (in my opinion) lurking is a valid scumtell that is unfortunately greatly overused and far too often misused.

[MichelSableheart]

@Random: I think random, baseless vote is better than weak-based vote since the random vote is a bridge to make a base to a better vote.

Wouldn't that exact same argument work better for the weakbased vote?

The explanation by Magic Trainer in #109 is sound.

[MichelSableheart]

almightybob, I know you just replaced in, but can you please pay a bit more attention to the thread? The explanation you found convincing had IMO already been given in post #109. You were the only one who got confused about Medix' vote count. In post #123, Patriots clearly stated that Medix was currenly at L-2, and would be put on L-1 by Patriots if he didn't post a defense soon.

Kyiv, is it possible to give an explanation for your votes and FoSes in the posts you put them in? #136 is rather confusing. On first glance, it looks like you are FoSing Patriots because he tried to take the steam out of the bandwagon. On second read, that's clearly not the case, but still.

I don't like how hard some people are arguing against putting Medix at L-1 right now. Pressure to get someone to contribute works best when there is a significant chance of that player being lynched.

[MichelSableheart]

I don't like how hard some people are arguing against putting Medix at L-1 right now. Pressure to get someone to contribute works best when there is a significant chance of that player being lynched.

It's Page 6. We're barely a week in. There's no need to actually put him at L-1 this early. L-2 with others prepared to vote is plenty of pressure.
There's no way that, in 6 pages, anyone should be convinced enough to put Medix at L-1. We just haven't had enough information to give that strong a read on anyone yet.

L-1 is where you put someone when you want them to roleclaim. Wanting a claim is what you do when you're completely happy with that person being the lynch choice. It's essentially a double-check that you're not about to lynch a power role.

That last paragraph was more for the benefit of newbies, I assume our IC would know this. Indeed, the fact that our IC is the one I'm responding to raises my eyebrow.

_ ^
o.O

Please allow me to expand a bit.

At this point in time, Medix is hardly participating. That is something I am willing to lynch over, but I would prefer to see him actually give his opinions.

A good way to try to get someone to participate is threaten them with a lynch. "If you don't start to participate, you'll get much closer to being lynched". Post #123 by Patriots is doing exactly that.

It is correct that it is probably unwise to lynch this early in the day. However, each time someone says something along the lines of "we probably shouldn't lynch Medix yet", the pressure of the threat on Medix (participate or you will be lynched) reduces, making it more likely that he keeps lurking.

I find nothing wrong with the exchange in posts #124 - #129. It is a simple exchange along the lines of "it's still early in the day, we want to discuss more". However, after post #129, the subject should have been dropped, IMO. Further discussing it weakens the pressure on Medix, which shouldn't happen.

Also, please note that I disagree with you about when exactly you should ask for a claim. Asking for a claim shouldn't happen just because someone is at L-1. Asking for a claim should happen because someone is willing to place the hammer. Putting someone at L-1 is IMO just a step of added pressure over L-2. It shows a certain willingness to lynch, but it does not end the day and therefore doesn't have to be final.

L-2 is enough pressure to get someone to contribute, L-1 is pushing it.

I simply disagree. If someone is not contributing, they should be lynched for that. If they don't start contributing at L-2, they should be put at L-1. And if they don't start contributing at L-1, you have probably found your lynch for the day.

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1. I just bait him to see if he has a good counter or not.
2. Many Day 1 votes is a random vote, and there must be some counter from the target.

So basically you expect a serious response to a vote that you claim is not serious? You're putting the burden of proof on the wrong place. If you have a serious attack, you may expect a serious response. But if your vote is completely random, there's simply not much to respond to, and ignoring it is perfectly fine.

[MichelSableheart]

Sorry Medix, but I don't agree with either of the points you bring up. Magic trainer voted Kyiv during the beginning of the game, then changed his vote to Lastsurvivor when things started to get more serious. He changed his vote only once during the game. That number is not exceptionally high, and as such, his vote is not significantly more unstable then the vote of the other players in the game.

He also didn't change the debate focus to you. I was the first one to vote you, in post #69. Kyiv voted you in #73. Randommaster started pressuring you in #92. All these happened before Magic trainer asked Lastsurvivor about his opinions on you in post #113. You were already the focus of debate before he started mentioning you. Also, he has spent most of his energy defending against attacks on him. I really don't think that your accusation that he tried to change the debate focus to you holds any water.

[MichelSableheart]

Very disappointing content yesterday.

Quick note:

and he tried to change the debate focus to me, which is worked

Pot, meet kettle.

We have been asking him to come up with a case for a couple of pages now. When he finally does a bit of attacking, you attack him for attacking someone? Seriously?

[MichelSableheart]

Quick note:

and he tried to change the debate focus to me, which is worked

Pot, meet kettle.

What does that mean?

It is a play on the saying "the pot calling the kettle black". It is used when someone is accusing someone else of something he is guilty of himself. See my last post for why I disagree with that analysis of Medix' play.

@everyone who has been saying there wasn't much to say: not lynching because we want more content is fine and all, but more content won't magically appear when you aren't actually contributing. Find something to say, rather then wait for someone else.

Still happy with my Medix vote, but lastsurvivor is starting to look scummy. For someone who wanted to learn more from discussion, he has been awfully focussed on Medix lately.

[MichelSableheart]

Personally, I'm voting him because there is a reasonable chance he is scum and I wouldn't mind seeing him lynched. His behaviour has been favouring scum, even though it could be the result of inexperience. The main factor in my decission, however, is that the bandwagon doesn't feel like scum trying to get a mislynch. It could be that scum are taking advantage of a mistake of pro-town players, but scum definately aren't the driving factor in this bandwagon.

[MichelSableheart]

I'm still somewhat unsure about whether to vote Medix. You're right, we can't just wait and hope some other people will find evidence as the scum might just lurk.

Huh? Are you considering voting Medix because other players might not scumhunt? Why are you ignoring the possibility of scumhunting yourself there?

If Medix does turn up to be scum I think it's a slight possibility his partner gave up on him and could be voting him out to clear his innocence. Is this something that has happened in other games that could be a scum tell?

Scum can have a myriad of possible motivations for their behaviour. They can defend a partner hoping to prevent his lynch. They can attack a partner to look more town when he flips scum. When looking at interactions, it is not what they did that is important, but why they did it.

I think we are all agreed that Medix is the best choice because he has "given up" but I still think we should talk for 4-7 days more just to get as much info as we can (even though no one is really saying anything). Almightybob said he'll have some stuff tomorrow, but right now I think we need a roleclaim from Medix. You never know if he's the doctor/cop, and his "giving up" style of play will really hurt us if he is one of those roles.

You know, rather then saying we should talk more, you should actually talk. You seem to agree with a Medix lynch. Who is Medix' partner? Why?

[MichelSableheart]

Unvote

Vote: PatriotsDynasty09

I've said this before. You have been saying several times now that you wanted discussion to continue. However, you have made no attempt whatsoever to actually discuss anything. Rather, it seems that you have been waiting till you could hammer him without drawing too much suspicion. Especially you asking if we are ready to end the day is suspicious in this context.

Besides that, the feeling of the Medix wagon changed suddenly. Kunkstar's and RandomMasters replies to LastSurvivors questions imply that they want to lynch him not because they believe he is scum, but because they believe he is not helping the town. Lynching for that reason is, in my experience, the biggest cause of mislynches.

[MichelSableheart]

Thanks to both the replacements for replacing in.

Unvote
Vote: PatriotsDynasty09

I've said this before. You have been saying several times now that you wanted discussion to continue. However, you have made no attempt whatsoever to actually discuss anything. Rather, it seems that you have been waiting till you could hammer him without drawing too much suspicion. Especially you asking if we are ready to end the day is suspicious in this context.

Besides that, the feeling of the Medix wagon changed suddenly. Kunkstar's and RandomMasters replies to LastSurvivors questions imply that they want to lynch him not because they believe he is scum, but because they believe he is not helping the town. Lynching for that reason is, in my experience, the biggest cause of mislynches.

Correct me with I'm wrong, but in my eyes there's a contradiction here.
In the second paragraph you effectively say that lynching because someone is being unhelpful leads to mislynches - and yet you vote PD09 because he's being unhelpful by not contributing.

You are incorrect when it comes to my reason for voting Patriots. I'm voting him because Patriots words don't match his behaviour. He says that he wants more discussion, but makes no attempts to actually get that discussion. This makes me believe that he is not sincere when he says that he wants more discussion. That is a different accusation then "you are being unhelpful".

[MichelSableheart]

So voting him for not making attempts to start discussion would be bad, but voting him for not making attempts to start discussion while trying to prompt it from others is good?

If you call saying "there needs to be more discussion" trying to prompt discussion from others, then yes. Personally I call that "look how town I am" though.

The explanation of the votes of Kunkstar and RandomMaster imply that the main reason they wanted to lynch Medix is that he is not a loss for the town if it turns out that he is pro-town when he is lynched. Whether or not Medix is scum seems to have a far lower priority for them. Unfortunately, if you don't focus on the player you're voting actually being scum, you usually end up lynching village idiots and unhelpful townies, rather then actual scum.

The focus in my Patriots vote, on the other hand, is in the fact that I believe him to be scum. If town actually wanted to see discussion, they would have attempted to start it themselves. If town didn't actually want to see discussion, they wouldn't have said that they wanted discussion. The fact that Patriots says he wants discussion, but doesn't do anything to start it, makes me believe that he is not town, and therefore scum.

By policy lynch here, I mean voting for Medix because even if he isn't scum, he isn't helpful to town. It seems to me the better option would be to have him replaced.

I am very strongly opposed to this notion that someone who isn't helpful should be replaced. No matter how bad a player is, he has the right to play the game. Furthermore, replacements severely hurt the game. They shouldn't happen when they are not strictly necessary. The only acceptable reason to replace someone is if they simply aren't there.

But before I start the bulk of my post I would just like to ask if we should take into account of how Medix played or how Magic Trainer played when we are voting for either Gayle or Flareonage?

Yes, definately. They had the same roles, so the behaviour of the original players should give information on the alignement of the replacements.

And you asked me who I thought was Medix's partner if he was scum. I would have to say you and Kunk in that order. Michel, I know that "policy lynches" have a high chance of a mislynch but in post 157 you said that you would be willing to vote Medix if he doesn't give an opinion on the matter. Maybe you're trying to protect your partner from getting lynched...

I'm still willing to lynch Gayle because Medix didn't participate. However, I believe that in you I've found a far more likely scum. Also, when you are accusing me of trying to protect Medix, please keep in mind that I started the wagon on Medix in the first place, and that my statement that I would be willing to lynch him also isn't very indicative of protecting a partner.

[MichelSableheart]

bob, stop that. #303 by Patriots was obviously intentionally seeding confusion. Considering Kyiv confirmed scum for that is ridiculous.

---------------------------------
Besides, there is far more important information to progress. Patriots was a roleblocker, so we either have a cop and doc, or are all vanilla.

If we have a cop, and that cop investigated someone other then Gayle, that cop should claim. I can guarantee that claiming is better then not claiming in that scenario. A cop who investigated Gayle, OTOH, probably should remain hidden for now.

If I am the cop, I investigated Gayle last night.

[MichelSableheart]

LastSurvivor, Kunkstar, RandomMaster, don't ignore post #322!

If you are the cop and investigated someone other then Gayle last night, please claim.

If you are the cop and investigated Gayle, or if you aren't the cop, please state "if I am the cop, I investigated Gayle last night".

[MichelSableheart]

Really? Even with the mod using phrases like "going through the motions"?

The most important part in the message from the mod is "No matter what conclusions you make". The conclusions are completely our responsibility, he is not going to give information. Even if we feel that the game is decided already, we still have to play it out and can be wrong.

The correct term for Patriots statement is indeed WIFOM. Patriots calling Kyiv his partner gives us information, but it's extremely difficult to parse correctly, because there always will be the reasoning of "but that's what he wants us to think".

I also don't think the Gayle kill is indicative of Kunk scum. Patriots was extremely eager to hammer Medix/Gayle. Gayle was extremely disbelieving of Patriots claim. The nightkill seems to me to be mainly done because Gayle was virtually confirmed town.

[MichelSableheart]

LastSurvivor, your post still didn't contain the requested claim...

[MichelSableheart]

Only waiting for the claims of Randommaster and Kyiv then.

Kunkstar, I'm having trouble understanding what you are arguing against Flareonage there. Also, at whom is the second part of #336 (everything from "let's say that lastsurvivor had said" onward) directed?

[MichelSableheart]

Too bad, looks like the breaking strategy of cop claim, doc claim, 3 confirmed innocent, 3 lynches and an investigation to find the last scum in 4 unconfirmed players won't go through then.

---
I strongly doubt that Kyiv is Patriots partner. Kyiv was the first to pressure Patriots, starting with a FoS when he wasn't the topic of discussion at all, and actually producing a case in ISO #17, before anyone else did. Scum isn't likely to draw attention to their partner like that. Add to that the fact that scum is far more likely to lie about their partner, and I'm almost certain that Kyiv is town.

Almightybob is almost certainly town too. Patriots made two serious cases on day 1. The first was against Medix, the other against bob. When Patriots started his attack, he launched it as the alternative to his own lynch. If Patriots had been making cases against most players in the game, I can see him making a case against his partner. But I don't see Patriots building a case against his partner as the only alternative to his own lynch.

LastSurvivor was the only one actively questioning the Medix wagon, urging caution, and wanting to make sure that the players voting were actually voting because they felt that Medix was scum. He even actively collided with Patriots over this. I consider him one of the main reasons that Medix wasn't lynched yesterday. Likely town.

This leaves me with three suspects. RandomMaster, Flareonage, and Kunkstar. Looking at Patriots behaviour towards them, all of them are potential partners. I'll have to look into them more thoroughly to come to a definite decission. Unfortunately, I don't have time to look into them right now. Expect a more thorough analysis of them in my next post.

[MichelSableheart]

Kunkstar

Patriots mostly ignored Kunkstar. He responded to some questions by Kunkstar, and gave a mild defense in ISO #17. The most interesting thing though, is that he places Kunkstar third on his suspicion list, initially with no reasoning given, later explained as gut. I can easily see his behaviour there as distancing.

ISO #6 by Kunkstar is interesting, in that his stance on random voting is effectively defending Patriots.
Kunkstar played an important role in the early pressure on Magic Trainer, but wasn't the one who started that wagon. But after Magic Trainer gave his explanation in #109 and Medix became the big wagon, Kunk switched without another word on Magic Trainer.
Kunkstar's vote on the Medix bandwagon matches how scum would behave toward such a wagon. When it's obvious that most people are agreeing with it and there isn't much chance of repercussion, he joins the wagon of the likely mislynch.
ISO #16 by Kunkstar is remarkable. When asked why he wants to lynch Medix, he replies that if Medix isn't scum, he is providing the scum with an easy lynch target. A statement along these lines is repeated in ISO #20, when he agrees with me about voting for someone not helping the town being the biggest cause of mislynches. Yet he continues to vote Medix.
Kunkstar's response to Patriots is mainly about how Patriots voted Kunk. He doesn't comment about the other points brought up against Patriots.
Kunk doesn't take a strong position on Patriots when he is the focus of discussion. He mentions being hesitant to believe the claim, but isn't really attacking Patriots.
However, when it has become obvious that Patriots is scum, he takes the opportunity to score town points by placing the hammer.

Overall, Kunk's behaviour strikes me as opportunistic chasing the likely bandwagons, and keeping neutral on Patriots until it had become obvious he was scum. Very likely mafia.

Randommaster

Patriots mostly ignored Randommaster, only mentioning him when Randommaster asked him a direct question.

RandomMaster was the one who started the attack on Magic Trainer, but quickly gave it up, even though others added to the pressure.
He quickly joined the Medix wagon, was the third person on it, and gave a FoS before it picked up speed.
Randommaster's answer to the question why he was voting Medix was a lot better then the answer Kunk gave. The reasons he gives aren't strong, but on second read do indicate that Random believe Medix was scum.
Random was the first to point out the contradiction in Kunk's behaviour (Medix is easy mislynch vs vote Medix)
Random's response to Patriots and his claim feels natural. He adds pressure when he's there, bringing up original points.

Overall, Random gives me reasonably good vibes. He joins attacks because he believes in them, doesn't feel opportunistic. I can't really match his behaviour to scum. Random is probably town.

Flareonage

Patriots completely ignored both Magic Trainer and Flareonage. Neither of them is mentioned by him at all.

Magic Trainer was under quite a bit of pressure early in the game. He was annoyed about it, but didn't lose his head, kept explaining. Ultimately, he came with a good explanation of his posts.
Magic was one of the last to join the Medix wagon. He had good reasons, and was careful about actually voting, so his joining didn't feel very opportunistic. Still, his joining could be scum strengthening a wagon.

Flareonage is hardly participating at all. He makes short posts, doesn't give much content.
His position on the Patriots lynch give him small town points. He disbelieved the claim and joined the wagon before it was obvious that Patriots was scum. Still, Patriots was under a lot of pressure already by then, and his lynch was starting to look inevitable, so this could be bussing.

I really don't have strong feelings either way on Magic Trainer/Flareonage. Neither of them have stood out. Neither made actions that strongly benefit scum, but neither made actions that strongly benefit town either. Possible scum.

-------
Kunkstar strikes me as by far the most likely scumsuspect. Flareonage is a distant second for me. I'm going to

Vote: Kunkstar

putting him at L-2.

[MichelSableheart]

Kunkstar

Patriots mostly ignored Kunkstar. He responded to some questions by Kunkstar, and gave a mild defense in ISO #17. The most interesting thing though, is that he places Kunkstar third on his suspicion list, initially with no reasoning given, later explained as gut. I can easily see his behaviour there as distancing.

ISO #6 by Kunkstar is interesting, in that his stance on random voting is effectively defending Patriots.
Kunkstar played an important role in the early pressure on Magic Trainer, but wasn't the one who started that wagon. But after Magic Trainer gave his explanation in #109 and Medix became the big wagon, Kunk switched without another word on Magic Trainer.
Kunkstar's vote on the Medix bandwagon matches how scum would behave toward such a wagon. When it's obvious that most people are agreeing with it and there isn't much chance of repercussion, he joins the wagon of the likely mislynch.
ISO #16 by Kunkstar is remarkable. When asked why he wants to lynch Medix, he replies that if Medix isn't scum, he is providing the scum with an easy lynch target. A statement along these lines is repeated in ISO #20, when he agrees with me about voting for someone not helping the town being the biggest cause of mislynches. Yet he continues to vote Medix.
Kunkstar's response to Patriots is mainly about how Patriots voted Kunk. He doesn't comment about the other points brought up against Patriots.
Kunk doesn't take a strong position on Patriots when he is the focus of discussion. He mentions being hesitant to believe the claim, but isn't really attacking Patriots.
However, when it has become obvious that Patriots is scum, he takes the opportunity to score town points by placing the hammer.

Overall, Kunk's behaviour strikes me as opportunistic chasing the likely bandwagons, and keeping neutral on Patriots until it had become obvious he was scum. Very likely mafia.

Randommaster

Patriots mostly ignored Randommaster, only mentioning him when Randommaster asked him a direct question.

RandomMaster was the one who started the attack on Magic Trainer, but quickly gave it up, even though others added to the pressure.
He quickly joined the Medix wagon, was the third person on it, and gave a FoS before it picked up speed.
Randommaster's answer to the question why he was voting Medix was a lot better then the answer Kunk gave. The reasons he gives aren't strong, but on second read do indicate that Random believe Medix was scum.
Random was the first to point out the contradiction in Kunk's behaviour (Medix is easy mislynch vs vote Medix)
Random's response to Patriots and his claim feels natural. He adds pressure when he's there, bringing up original points.

Overall, Random gives me reasonably good vibes. He joins attacks because he believes in them, doesn't feel opportunistic. I can't really match his behaviour to scum. Random is probably town.

Flareonage

Patriots completely ignored both Magic Trainer and Flareonage. Neither of them is mentioned by him at all.

Magic Trainer was under quite a bit of pressure early in the game. He was annoyed about it, but didn't lose his head, kept explaining. Ultimately, he came with a good explanation of his posts.
Magic was one of the last to join the Medix wagon. He had good reasons, and was careful about actually voting, so his joining didn't feel very opportunistic. Still, his joining could be scum strengthening a wagon.

Flareonage is hardly participating at all. He makes short posts, doesn't give much content.
His position on the Patriots lynch give him small town points. He disbelieved the claim and joined the wagon before it was obvious that Patriots was scum. Still, Patriots was under a lot of pressure already by then, and his lynch was starting to look inevitable, so this could be bussing.

I really don't have strong feelings either way on Magic Trainer/Flareonage. Neither of them have stood out. Neither made actions that strongly benefit scum, but neither made actions that strongly benefit town either. Possible scum.

-------
Kunkstar strikes me as by far the most likely scumsuspect. Flareonage is a distant second for me. I'm going to

Vote: Kunkstar

putting him at L-2.

[MichelSableheart]

Kunkstar

Patriots mostly ignored Kunkstar. He responded to some questions by Kunkstar, and gave a mild defense in ISO #17. The most interesting thing though, is that he places Kunkstar third on his suspicion list, initially with no reasoning given, later explained as gut. I can easily see his behaviour there as distancing.

ISO #6 by Kunkstar is interesting, in that his stance on random voting is effectively defending Patriots.
Kunkstar played an important role in the early pressure on Magic Trainer, but wasn't the one who started that wagon. But after Magic Trainer gave his explanation in #109 and Medix became the big wagon, Kunk switched without another word on Magic Trainer.
Kunkstar's vote on the Medix bandwagon matches how scum would behave toward such a wagon. When it's obvious that most people are agreeing with it and there isn't much chance of repercussion, he joins the wagon of the likely mislynch.
ISO #16 by Kunkstar is remarkable. When asked why he wants to lynch Medix, he replies that if Medix isn't scum, he is providing the scum with an easy lynch target. A statement along these lines is repeated in ISO #20, when he agrees with me about voting for someone not helping the town being the biggest cause of mislynches. Yet he continues to vote Medix.
Kunkstar's response to Patriots is mainly about how Patriots voted Kunk. He doesn't comment about the other points brought up against Patriots.
Kunk doesn't take a strong position on Patriots when he is the focus of discussion. He mentions being hesitant to believe the claim, but isn't really attacking Patriots.
However, when it has become obvious that Patriots is scum, he takes the opportunity to score town points by placing the hammer.

Overall, Kunk's behaviour strikes me as opportunistic chasing the likely bandwagons, and keeping neutral on Patriots until it had become obvious he was scum. Very likely mafia.

Randommaster

Patriots mostly ignored Randommaster, only mentioning him when Randommaster asked him a direct question.

RandomMaster was the one who started the attack on Magic Trainer, but quickly gave it up, even though others added to the pressure.
He quickly joined the Medix wagon, was the third person on it, and gave a FoS before it picked up speed.
Randommaster's answer to the question why he was voting Medix was a lot better then the answer Kunk gave. The reasons he gives aren't strong, but on second read do indicate that Random believe Medix was scum.
Random was the first to point out the contradiction in Kunk's behaviour (Medix is easy mislynch vs vote Medix)
Random's response to Patriots and his claim feels natural. He adds pressure when he's there, bringing up original points.

Overall, Random gives me reasonably good vibes. He joins attacks because he believes in them, doesn't feel opportunistic. I can't really match his behaviour to scum. Random is probably town.

Flareonage

Patriots completely ignored both Magic Trainer and Flareonage. Neither of them is mentioned by him at all.

Magic Trainer was under quite a bit of pressure early in the game. He was annoyed about it, but didn't lose his head, kept explaining. Ultimately, he came with a good explanation of his posts.
Magic was one of the last to join the Medix wagon. He had good reasons, and was careful about actually voting, so his joining didn't feel very opportunistic. Still, his joining could be scum strengthening a wagon.

Flareonage is hardly participating at all. He makes short posts, doesn't give much content.
His position on the Patriots lynch give him small town points. He disbelieved the claim and joined the wagon before it was obvious that Patriots was scum. Still, Patriots was under a lot of pressure already by then, and his lynch was starting to look inevitable, so this could be bussing.

I really don't have strong feelings either way on Magic Trainer/Flareonage. Neither of them have stood out. Neither made actions that strongly benefit scum, but neither made actions that strongly benefit town either. Possible scum.

-------
Kunkstar strikes me as by far the most likely scumsuspect. Flareonage is a distant second for me. I'm going to

Vote: Kunkstar

putting him at L-2.

--------------
BOARD IS ACTING UP. I can see my message posted in the preview, but not in the actual thread. Sorry if this is a triple post.

[MichelSableheart]

I don't see why he would try distancing himself from me when there was no connection between us at the moment. Adding me to his scumlist only effectively served to try and bring up suspicion against me, not something scum would do to their partner when they are being ignored for the most part.

There was no reasoning attached to your placement there. He could have put any player in the game there with the same result. It is highly unlikely that such a move results in more suspicion on you. It does allow him to say "look, I already suspected kunk day 1" in the event that you are lynched and turn up scum.

Patriots random vote was a result of a dice roll. I explained in ISO #6 that I did not agree with this style of voting as it provides nothing to cause a reaction to. His idea that random votes are there to test reactions and begin discussion I do believe in, and I think most people do, even yourself. Yet I disagreed with his style of voting with dice.

Actually, I don't think random votes have a place in the game at all. There can always be found a reason to vote, in my experience. Which is why a stance of "random voting in general is good, you just can't let it out that the vote was actually random" feels slightly iffy to me. Still, this is an extremely weak point.

I explained that I did believe there was a chance that Medix was scum. Since there was a likelihood that Medix may have been town I saw no reason to switch my vote when I had no substantial case on another.

Medix was our lead at the moment, due to his posts being weak, inconsistent and also sparse. These things are tells for both scum and town. My leaning at the time was that he was probably acting more townie newb vibe rather than inconsistent scum. Since the reasons I had voted Medix for were also tells for scum, I found no reason to unvote for there was a chance he could be scum

The fact remains that you were voting someone who you essentially believed to be town, even though you agreed that was the biggest cause of mislynches. Because there are two scum in the game, there must be players who you believe are scum, or of whom you simply don't know what to believe. Voting anyone of them is better then voting someone you belief is town.

[MichelSableheart]

so there is no cop? Has everyone posted since the last scene?

We may still have a cop who investigated Gayle. However, everyone posted, so we don't have a cop who has info to share at this point in time.

[MichelSableheart]

@mod: how is finding a replacement going?

Flareonage, don't you have any thoughts on my analysis of the game whatsoever?

This is true. Yet the same could be said of your second sentence. "Look, I already suspected {{player's name}} Day 1". By not attaching a reason he just showed that he was trying to find someone quickly to get suspicion on without real effort, and it makes it highly unlikely that he foresaw such a situation.

Sorry, I can't agree with that analysis. post #258 shows me that Patriots was very much aware of the possibility of distancing.

What I'm trying to say here was Medix could have gone either way. His play was both bad scum and bad town play. With a chance that he may have been scummy, then yes it is worth pressing that case to see what it leads to. I could not see much else to go on at the moment, so pushing the Medix case was what I felt was right at the moment.

I simply don't understand how you can agree with my statement that lynching for noncontribution rather then scummyness is the biggest cause of mislynches if that is what you felt. My statement implies a strong belief that Medix is town.

[MichelSableheart]

Apologies for the lack of content. Had a busy weekend, and don't have time to post properly. Expect better from me tomorrow.

Welcome to the game, boberz. Good to see that you dove right in.

[MichelSableheart]

Oops, just threw away an hour of work. Guess I'll have to start this post again.

Good analysis boberz. There is just one thing I don't understand in your final conclusion. Why are you calling flareon scum, when almost all of your posts show suspicion of almightybob, and you later vote him?

I understand where your suspicion of almightybob is coming from. Before I reread the game for post #349, he was my top suspect. However, Patriots really launched an attack against him as the only alternative to his lynch. If you want to have any chance of convincing me to vote almightybob, you need to give me a very good explanation why Patriots would do that to his scumpartner.

About quoting: the reasons I use many quotes, is because they make it more clear what exactly I'm replying to. I'm having some trouble reading posts #381 and #393, because I'm finding it difficult to determine what part of the posts you are exactly responding to. Besides that, I continually have to scroll back to their posts to compare what they're saying to your remarks.

---
@Almightybob: you requested an analysis of boberz case on you. I'm going to summarize the case to four points (ignoring the "almighty crumbed no lynch to patriots", because that is no longer part of his case).

1. You overreacted to Gayle's "medix is town" comment: I understand why you believed that Gayle softclaimed vanilla townie. What you should realize, though, is that a lot of players use town, or even townie, as synonymous with "pro-town". I personally believe that Gayle's comment was a joke which he could have made as a powerrole or scum too. This is also how Gayle explained it. You probably should have dropped the topic earlier. However, I don't think you as scum would gain an advantage from that behaviour, so it's not a scumtell for me.
   
   
2. Your behaviour towards Patriots was suspicious and likely bussing: Before I reread for post #349, you were my top suspect, for exactly this. Originally, you were questioning my attack on Patriots. Then in post #269, you suddenly mentioned that good points had been raised, without actually explaining what they were. You seemed to go back to not understanding the wagon in #279, to go to voting him in #283. This behaviour felt strange and not genuine. It could indeed have easily been setting up a bus. The explanations you have given recently are acceptable to me though.
   
   
3. You wanted the game to be abandoned to prevent a loss: I have to agree with boberz that you were very quick to state that the game would be abandoned. Allthough this is likely a result of previous experiences, I can't rule out the possibility that you actually wanted the game to be abandoned because with the roleblocker lynched, you felt it had become very difficult for you to win.
   
   
4. You wanted to get a quick mislynch on Kyiv on day 2: You definately were quick to vote Kyiv at the beginning of day 2, and you definately were quick to unvote when I argued against it. You completely dropped the topic after that, even though you showed reluctance when you unvoted. This can indeed be the result of attempting to get an "easy" mislynch, then dropping it when it turned out that there were others strongly opposed to that lynch. However, I think the explanation that you felt Kyiv was obviously scum, then other players convinced you otherwise, is more believable.

Overall, I definately understand where boberz suspicion is coming from. On the other hand, you have given believable pro-town explanations for your behaviour. Because of Patriots attack on you, I believe you're town.

[MichelSableheart]

I haven't got much to add. Current discussion seems to be solely between the two bobs. Nobody else seems to be around.

Kyiv, what's going on? You haven't posted anything of relevance in day 2 yet. Last friday, you promised to post content during the weekend, but we haven't heard from you since.

Flareonage, I disagree with you that not contributing at all is better then scum contributing a lot and misleading the town. The contributing scum is actually playing the game. You are not doing anything.

Kunkstar and lastsurvivor are simply not very active. Both of them posted last sunday, and haven't posted since then.

Boberz, considering Flareon's participation level thus far, I doubt waiting for him to respond before posting your case is going to achieve much.

Also, any reply to this?

I understand where your suspicion of almightybob is coming from. Before I reread the game for post #349, he was my top suspect. However, Patriots really launched an attack against him as the only alternative to his lynch. If you want to have any chance of convincing me to vote almightybob, you need to give me a very good explanation why Patriots would do that to his scumpartner.

[MichelSableheart]

MS, I still think PD could be scum with bob. PD was clearly in playing games mode, with the jyiv thing, the claim thing and he could easily be pulling a trick here on bob. Meanwhile in his next post he tells us to watch for gayle and kunk; mentions medix (now gayle) again. He does not really hit bob hard.

PD was definately playing games with us. However, I don't think that is the case with his attack on bob. The points he mentioned there were valid, unlike his attack on Kunk (which had no reasoning whatsoever) or Gayle (which mainly seemed to be OMGUS). The way bob attacked PD was suspiciously going with the flow. Basically, if bob was trying to distance from his scumpartner, the last thing PD would want to do is going "look how suspicious bob's attack on me is!".

[MichelSableheart]

Welcome Charlie.

Kunkstar, we are three days away from deadline. The soft suspicion issue alone is not going to cut it for me. Why should we lynch LS over you?

Charlie, if you noted the input and analysis by me on page 15, surely you noted the preceding analysis on the bottom of page 14 too? Kyiv started attacking PD before even I did. Look at his ISO #17. Do you truly believe that's how scum would act to their partner?

I also find your reasoning for suspecting Kyiv rather weak. Lurking can be a valid scumtell, but not when we have interactions with a dead partner to take into account. Similary, the contradiction between "I have no opinion" and "townie mudslinging" is there, but is IMO not indicative of scum.

I'm definately not going to support a Kyiv lynch today.

Similary, I'm not willing to support a lynch of almightybob. My town read on him is too strong to lynch him over three more likely candidates. The same goes for LastSurvivor. I haven't seen a case against him yet.

For me, the three lynch options are Kunkstar, boberz and Charlie. Out of those three, Kunkstar is by far the best lynch.

[MichelSableheart]

Michel, If it isn't too much trouble, can I get some IC input on this bit of game theory? I would like to know if its correct or wrong:

Usually, a good VT would want to act like a PR in the hopes of throwing off scum. A PR would want to look like a VT to stay hidden from scum.

I personally think you are placing too much emphasis on the PR's remaining hidden there. Ideally, all pro-town players should be scumhunting the best they can. That way, scum will have a very difficult time finding the powerroles, who are playing just like everyone else. Any player trying to play worse then that to protect the powerroles is only hampering the town's ability to find the scum IMHO.

Kyiv, MS convince me of your reads please. Essentially I want you two (my safish reads) to show me why I should switch to your candidates.

We already discussed your read on almightybob, I can't add much more to that. I can attempt, however, to again disect kunkstar. Which will happen in my next post.

@MS: Sorry if I missed something here (did a quick iso, but I'm a bit tired), but what is your case on boberz? I do agree with you about Charlie, he just seems to be trying to put together a big analysis on null points. I liked RM though, so I'm not sure if he is actually scum.

I don't really have a case against boberz. However, I also don't have the town read on him that I have on Kyiv, almightybob, and you. Because I still could see him as scum, I would be willing to support his lynch if the mayority of the players thinks he's scum.

[MichelSableheart]

I promised a case against Kunkstar.

Day 1 started of with pressure on Magic Trainer. There were two players heavily involved in this pressure: Last Survivor and Kunkstar. the wagon was started by other players (particulary RandomMaster), but those two players pressed on and on.

What is interesting here is that Patriots didn't comment on it at all, when he showed eagerness to join the Medix wagon a few pages later. The most obvious explanation for that is, IMO, that his buddy was heavily involved in the discussion, either being attacked or one of the main attackers.

The next thing that happens is the Medix wagon. It is started by me and Kyiv. RandomMaster and Patriots joined in on the pressure about a page later. LastSurvivor is urging caution, as is RandomMaster, who states he wants to keep the wagon at L-2. Guess who ignores this cautioning to bring the wagon to L-1 anyway? Kunkstar, of course.

Then there is the explanation of his vote in #186. Kunkstar states that the main reason for voting Medix is that Medix has been very weak, not helping the town at all, and being an easy lynch target for scum. When LastSurvivor asks him if he actually believes Medix to be scum, he kind of avoids the question by going on a tangent how that isn't necessary for earlier votes. When I later state that voting players for being weak is the main cause of mislynches, he agrees with me, but keeps his vote on Medix anyway. In later explanations (#331), he even claimed that he mainly had a newbie town vibe from Medix. There is no reason to push for the lynch of someone you believe to be town, unless deadline is extremely near and there is no other alternative whatsoever.

On a related note, Patriots is defending Kunkstar in #190.

Interesting to note: the last paragraph of #218. kunkstar downplaying other players suspicion on Patriots.

The sarcastic response in #229 and #231 doesn't sit well with me. Potentially, Kunkstar is trying to seed suspicion against the replacement of Medix there. This is a weak point, though.

Patriots putting Kunkstar third in his list of suspicions, without actual explanation, feels like typical distancing, much more then his later attack on almightybob.

Kunkstar had more reason to nightkill Gayle then the other players had: Kunk was Gayle's second top suspect, after Patriots. However, with Patriots attack against Medix, it had become rather obvious that Gayle was pro-town, so this is a weak point.

Post #286 is immediately disbelieving Patriots claim, but not being very strong about it. By calling himself "really hesitant", Kunkstar keeps open the possibility of believing the claim later on. Kunkstar's vote of Patriots only comes after it is completely obvious that Patriots is scum.

----
To summarize:

• Kunkstars position against Magic Trainer in the beginning of day 1 is slightly suspicious.
  
• Kunkstars position on the Medix wagon is highly suspicious.
  
• Kunkstars position against Patriots was suspicious as well.
  
• Patriots behaviour towards Kunkstar felt like distancing.

[MichelSableheart]

I wasnt asking for you to discuss almighty bob again MS, just generally pontificating over the need for discussion. Can you elaborate on the Patriots distancing from Kunk I didnt read it that way. I am not sure his position on the MT wagon is that bad either. Your other two main points seem to hold up though.

Kunk's position on the MT wagon is mainly bad because Patriots simply ignored it. There wasn't anything wrong with the attack itself.

About distancing: scum attacking their partners happens because they don't want to make it clear that they're connected. This can happen in two ways: when it's obvious that the partner being attacked will be lynched, or when it's not obvious that that's the case. If it's obvious that the partner will be lynched, scum is likely to go all out in their attack. However, when it's not obvious, they generally don't want to make their attack too convincing, because they do not actually want to see their partner lynched.

Patriots' attack on Kunk fits this last category perfectly. He had bigger scum suspects (me and Gayle) to explain why he didn't vote kunk, his reasons were vague enough to not convince anyone, while not being completely unbelievable. Basically, the attack has no chance whatsoever to actually achieve a lynch, while he is still seen attacking Kunk.

---
@Kunkstar: as I told boberz, there was nothing wrong with the pressure on Magic Trainer in itself. However, if you, Lastsurvivor and Magic Trainer were town, I believe Patriots would have joined the attack. The fact that he didn't is a strong indication for me that one of you three is scum. Yes, that means that LastSurvivor is equally scummy on this particular point. It's one of the few scumtells against him.

---
It's probably superfluous, but I want to emphasize that we should lynch today. Someone should hammer before the deadline hits.

[MichelSableheart]

MichelSableHeart, theory question. If there would be no hammer by deadline, would it be wrong for a townie to self-hammer to prevent the no-lynch? Or would a no-lynch be suitable in such situation?

I'm going to be very cautious in answering this question. Selfhammering is virtually never a good idea. The information becoming available from someone else placing the hammer is significantly greater, and should always be preferred. And there will definately be situations in which the no lynch is preferable over the selfhammer (an even number of players alive in a newbie game comes to mind).

However, in the current game state, were a no lynch would mean that the town has one less lynch to find scum with, and the lynch is likely to happen the next day if a no lynch occurs, a selfhammer would be acceptable as the absolute last resort, but only if there is absolutely no way a lynch will occur at deadline otherwise. Again, however, in general townies should NOT selfhammer.

[MichelSableheart]

Thanks for playing everyone, I sure had fun.

I don't think there was much you could have done better, Charlie. You replaced into a rather difficult position. Your predecessors had been rather suspicious, whereas a lot of pro-town players were extremely difficult to lynch. Killing me of night 2 was definately the right choice, because my analysis of Kyiv, almighty and LastSurvivor as town, plus boberz replacing in very strongly, meant that I would be going for you day 3 certainly. The other players had slightly more doubts.

the only thing you possibly should have done different is your behaviour day 3. Pleading simply isn't going to persuade anyone in mafia. You might have gotten a lynch of Kyiv (there was a certain amount of suspicion against him) or Almightybob (boberz was rather focussed on him). However, to achieve that, you would have needed to fabricate a strong case, and shown quite a bit of conviction yourself.

Apart from Medix, the play of all town players was good. There was good reasoning, players were willing to listen to each other. Perhaps massclaim on day 3 should have happened a bit earlier, but overall, well played.

[MichelSableheart]

Cheers pablito, thanks a lot. Well done town!!! except me lol!!!

Don't be down on yourself. You convinced almightybob that you were town. You never were under serious threat of being lynched. And you were part of the winning bandwagon. I believe that definately deserves a well done.