Newbie 764 - Game Over

[semioldguy]

Hello everyone!

I'll give the thread a read and be back shortly with some thoughts.

[semioldguy]

Wow... that was quite a long nine pages.

Vote: Kairyuu

There are several things I find him doing that I find potentially scummy.

(1) Multiple times throughout Day one he points to his own completed games as examples of his play style. I find it to be scummy to point to one's previous games as a defense for your innocence because it makes you appear as if you are actively thinking of the way you acted in past innocent games and using that to point to why you look innocent this game. If you truly are a town player, your actions should be speaking for themselves just fine. You shouldn't have to justify them by pointing to a previous game.

(2) He is throwing his votes all over the place. Day one alone he voted for five different people: Chaos40, Sando, Josh Lyman, Infinis and finally Japles. He also threw an FoS on yet a sixth player: Bekkatha. On Day Two he is already back to throwing his vote around from millar13 to Infinis to Josh Lyman then back to Infinis. To me it looks like he is just tossing his vote around seeing where it might stick while also creating chaos.

(3) First post of the day he suggests that scum are hunting for power roles. I think this could be a scum slip. We don't know if there are power roles in this game.

(4) He distanced himself from Japles Day One when others tried to get his opinion on it until the end of the day when it looked apparent that Japles demise was inevitable.

The player I see most likely as linked to Japles is Kairyuu.

[semioldguy]

I have thoughts on other players as well and will get to them sometime tonight, right now I've been sitting at this game for over three hours and I need a breather.

[semioldguy]

This is terribly weak. It is my playstyle to refer to previous games as evidence of things. I do it very often, and if you take a look at my more recent games (how ironic, that I have to respond to this accusation with the very thing you say is scummy) you will see this trend, especially early in the game when I haven't gotten immersed in a game yet. This is a null tell at best.

If it's a null tell it's still bad town play in my opinion. You shouldn't be needing to defend your play with your own past example. Good town play defends itself as good town play. And if that's not good enough, logic and/or reasoning usually works better than an example from the past. You yourself admit to your own past examples not being so great by mentioning that you are still developing a consistent play style.

Take a look at the votes. Every last one of them has a valid reason for it.

This is a straw man argument. The fact still stands that you are throwing your vote around. My argument was never about your reasoning or lack of reasoning. Your voting isn't automatically okay just because you can justify all of your votes.

You do know that we have a 75% chance of having power role(s) in the game, right? The obvious move for intelligent scum would be to try to find them and eliminate them. Also, if I were scum I wouldn't necessarily know if there were power roles either. This is a completely weak point.

Scum don't see the same odds as the town does, since they know their own setup they can eliminate the other two immediately. For them it is either 100% or 50% depending on which two scum roles they have.

Oooooh. Woooow. You actually know how to read. How brilliant.

Insulting another player like this really isn't anyone's place to be doing in game.

[semioldguy]

I see a strong link between Japles and Kairyuu.

Every player that Japles responds to or quotes, he does not agree with. There are two exceptions to this: Korts (who he still sometimes disagrees with) and Kairyuu (who he

always

agrees with). He also random voted Korts as his first random vote post so in my opinion a potential link to Korts is weakened because of that. One of the times he agrees with Korts isn't even an agreement with Korts, but he is agreeing with a Korts post that only agrees with a Kairyuu post.

Japles also defends Kairyuu, but never defends any other player.

[semioldguy]

Some quick opinions of the other players in this game.

Korts

: I get a town feel from Korts. I don't think he'd leave his scum partner hanging by always being a few pages behind. I've read some of his games in the past and it's just not something I see him doing.

Infinis

: I don't get a strong town or scum vibe from him. He could be either. However, what I do like is that he has been looking back extensively at Day One in his scum hunting attempts and bringing it into current discussion, something that I think many more people should do more often. Previous days always merit more analysis as the game progresses. His scum hunting attempts are mostly believable to me.

millar13

: I have an unclear view to his alignment. He seems to be actively lurking quite a bit. I'd like to see you bring some more of your own opinions to the table and taking a stance while backing it up more often in general. I see him as more likely to be scum than Infinis.

Ojanen

: The most likely to be town in my eyes. Her points seem well thought out and logical. Played a large part starting the momentum toward a Japles lynch makes me think that they would not be scum partners.

Sando

: In the wall-of-text debates he seems to have the more valid (or less exaggerated) side of things. I'd say he is also very likely to be town. He also played a part in getting the Japles lynch going.

My ranking in order of most scummy to least scummy:
Kairyuu
millar13
Infinis
Korts
Sando
Ojanen

[semioldguy]

Another reason I find Kairyuu to be scummy is that he says the following:

Oh yeah, by the way, if there is by any chance a cop with an innocent on me they should probably claim so that I don't get mislynched. I'd rather lynch scum than submit to being a mislynch.

This is a trick I used with my playgroup for a while as Scum before they caught on. What this does is it makes the Cop think that you may be innocent and when he thinks you are innocent he is less likely to check you on following nights because he wants to look for scum. You also hint at this in your first post of the day.

Reasons why town

wouldn't

say this:
If the Cop hasn't checked you and you are innocent you are encouraging him to do so if he exists. The scum know you are innocent and if you are going to get role checked you become a better night kill because by killing you there is a better chance that the Cop may be also investigating you and your death wastes his role check, essentially role-blocking the Cop.

[semioldguy]

Infinis: I don't get a strong town or scum vibe from him. He could be either. However, what I do like is that he has been looking back extensively at Day One in his scum hunting attempts and bringing it into current discussion, something that I think many more people should do more often. Previous days always merit more analysis as the game progresses. His scum hunting attempts are mostly believable to me.

Semioldguys read of Infinis in post 230 seems particularly scummy to me. He’s praising of Infinis for ignoring what happened in D1. For starters, Infinis hasn’t done this, he’s constantly speculated and theorised about D1/N1 events, and secondly, Semi seems to be trying to take the focus off D1 events, a period when his previous incantation lurked hardcore.

Drunkpost done with

I'm going to chalk this up as you being drunk... because you just claimed me as saying the exact opposite of what I actually said.

[semioldguy]

And if that's not good enough, logic and/or reasoning usually works better than an example from the past.

Not always. Examples from the past are factual. Logic and reasoning are subjective and alignment based. If there is something I can do to deal in facts rather than conjecture, I jump at the chance.

What happend in past games does not necessarily coincide with what is happening in the current game.

You yourself admit to your own past examples not being so great by mentioning that you are still developing a consistent play style.

The fact that I am not totally consistant does not mean that when I cite examples, those examples did not happen. They are still perfectly valid examples of things I have done in the past which can be linked to the alignment I was when I did them.

Yes they are examples of what you did in the past. This is isn't one of your past games. This is this game.

Also if you claim not to have a consistent play style, how do you rationalize using your past (inconsisent) play style as a suitable defense?

This is a straw man argument. The fact still stands that you are throwing your vote around. My argument was never about your reasoning or lack of reasoning. Your voting isn't automatically okay just because you can justify all of your votes.

This is not a straw man argument. If the votes are valid, then there is a perfectly good reason to be making them. Therefore, you are essentially just arguing opinion. You don't like that I made numerous votes in the game, so you say it is scummy.

It is a straw man arguement... let me go to the wiki really quick...

A "Straw man" argument (also called "setting up a straw man") involves mischaracterizing your opponent's position in order to present a weaker argument than they have actually given, thereby allowing you to defeat it. It usually involves subtle changes to the given facts of the matter, or minor changes to wording that lead to semantic differences in what is said.

My position: You are voting all over the place.
Your defense: Every one of your votes has a valid reason.

I'd say that fits under "mischaracterizing your opponent's position in order to present a weaker argument than they have actually given" and "subtle changes to the given facts of the matter, or minor changes to wording that lead to semantic differences in what is said." If you disagree with making lots of votes seeming scummy, then argue against that point, not some other point that wasn't made. The point still stands that you voted all over the place and you haven't addressed that, you've avoided and diverted.

This game is bothering me to no end because I can't see any way out of being lynched (alignment is irrelevant here, as I've never been lynched as either main alignments), and either way it hurts my side. I was frusterated, and I took it out on you. It won't happen again.

This borders on appearing for your own self-preservation. Do I need to explain why acting that way is scummy?

@semioldguy (again):

This is a trick I used with my playgroup for a while as Scum before they caught on. What this does is it makes the Cop think that you may be innocent and when he thinks you are innocent he is less likely to check you on following nights because he wants to look for scum. You also hint at this in your first post of the day.

I'm the most obviously scummy player alive right now, and was going into N1 as well. It makes logical sense that if we have a cop I was the investigation last Night. If I'm not, it does the exact opposite of what you are claiming. Since if I live through D2 I will still be the scummiest player going into Night, it would make perfect sense for me to be the investigation.

And if you are guilty you waited long enough into the day for others to post so that if anyone did have a guilty on you they would have posted. No one did, so if you're guilty you can get away with saying the same thing.

If the Cop hasn't checked you and you are innocent you are encouraging him to do so if he exists. The scum know you are innocent and if you are going to get role checked you become a better night kill because by killing you there is a better chance that the Cop may be also investigating you and your death wastes his role check, essentially role-blocking the Cop.

It's a win-win. If the scum kills me then they won't be able to try to get me lynched D3 to get to lylo. If they don't, then I'm confirmed town. I see no downside other than a possible guilty investigation, which, while more useful than a confirmed innocent, is not as feasible.

How is this win-win? If you are innocent and the Cop role checks you the same night scum kill you, you are left with a Cop who has no results. How is that helpful? How isn't this a downside?

It is

BAD

to try directing the Cop's actions in the way you are suggesting. Doing this influences the Mafia's kill in a negative way for the town. You are giving them better targets that lead to greater advantages for scum. By doing this you are essentially giving a Goon the chance to upgrade himself to a roleblocker for the night.

[semioldguy]

I find the motives to be more believable than the arguments themselves. His trying seems genuine to me.

[semioldguy]

Kai has previously asked for mass-claims in other games, it's worked well for him, I think this is just a null-tell from someone who didn't think it through fully.

When does he usually call for this? and under what circumstances? If it was the roleblocker who was lynched Day One, then role claiming makes a lot more sense. But it's only Day Two and in this setup I don't see how it could give us enough of an advantage to auto-win until a later day.

To me it looks like he wasn't fully considering his idea from the town's point of view, which is suspicious.

[semioldguy]

If your referring to Newbie 750, I've read that game and the circumstances were significantly different than the ones we have here.

[semioldguy]

I don't think anyone else is voting for him except for you and I, so it's still only L-2.

[semioldguy]

Vote:Infinis

my eyes burn from pollen...meh

Most recent Vote count shows him on Infinis (and he did not unvote before asking to be replaced)

[semioldguy]

I didn't like infinis' hopping on and off with his vote of Kairyuu yesterday and he is one of the top suspects at the moment in my opinion.

I'd like to hear a few things from Starbuck about the game so far. Hopefully she's had time to catch up.

[semioldguy]

I was referring to the fact that at the beginning of the day you went on and off him, and then onto him again when there was more support for it. It wasn't just about your last withdrawn vote.

As far as considering people confirmed townies, I don't like to consider anyone as such unless there is almost a near absolute certainty. Because of this korts is the only confirmed townie to me since I can't see a scenario where he is the guilty one based on your claim. You claim is also almost sure to be real, since if you were scum it would be too big a risk if a counter claim were to happen.

If you look at my list yesterday, millar13 (now Starbuck) was second most suspicious to me after Kairyuu. Combined with Kairyuu's suspicion of millar13 due to them playing some previous games together.

[semioldguy]

I'm stuck on Infinis because I'm not sure about him, as are the rest of you.

The rest of us? Who else is stuck on him or not sure about him?

[semioldguy]

I think the cop claim is good because it guarantees that we will have a confirmed innocent if we are forced into lylo tomorrow, which is a huge disadvantage to the remaining scum.

[semioldguy]

Vote: Starbuck

Infinis shouldn't be lynched today in my opinion.
Korts is confirmed innocent in any sane scenario.
Ojanen has been one of the least suspicious players all game (and hasn't deviated from that). I also see it highly unlikely for her to be Japles' scumbuddy based off of Day One.

[semioldguy]

If everyone thinks it comes down to myself or Starbuck... It doesn't mater to me which order you lynch us in. If one of us is the remaining scum then lynching us both ends in a town victory. The way I see it, it does come down to the two of us and lynching both of us is the most likely path to a town victory.

[semioldguy]

And Starbuck, I'm sorry but you've replaced to a playerslot that had millar displaying some scummy behaviour and lurking and Bekkatha displaying lurking. A more detailed take on things from you would be very much appreciated.

You cannot hold the votes or whatever was said by the people I replaced against me. It is not my fault if they were lurking or not participating.

Why can't that be held against you? Part of replacing in is knowing that you have to deal with whatever was left behind of the person you are replacing. Yeah, it can be difficult or unfair to have to defend against that, but what little you've posted today hasn't looked too good to me either.

Also you haven't addressed post 292 yet.

[semioldguy]

We still shouldn't lynch him today though. Not lynching him guarantees we have a confirmed townie tomorrow if we don't win today.

[semioldguy]

(Semioldguy's statement that we have an absolute guarantee of having a confirmed townie tomorrow though works only if you count Infinis as confirmed, and is thus a incompatible as a reply to Starbuck whose position is that Infinis is suspicious.)

It IS an absolute guarantee. Here are the possible tomorrow scenarios assuming Infinis is not lynched today (or Korts):

(1) Infinis (or anyone not Korts) is night killed. This means Korts is still alive and is a confirmed innocent.

(2a) Korts is night killed and Infinis starts the day with a guilty result. The person who he is not claiming as guilty is the confirmed innocent as either he is correct about that player being guilty or he is guilty himself, making the third person a confirmed innocent by default.

(2b) Korts is night killed and Infinis starts the day with an innocent result. That person is a confirmed innocent for the same reason Korts is today.

(3) Korts is night killed, revealed to be a townie and Infinis claims to have been role blocked. This means there is both a cop and a doctor remaining and with three players there will be one role with two claims and the other role with only one claim. The role that is only claimed once is the confirmed innocent.

[semioldguy]

That said, I'm pretty set on semioldguy. While his predecessor's lack of contribution can be explained away more than satisfactorily, and his analysis, on a skim, seemed accurate, I have had a solid town read on Ojanen all the way through the game. Now I will read all the posts both of you made, and recalibrate my scumdar, but from my current perspective it's hard to see that I'd come to any other conclusion.

Please be thorough when going back through posts from both Ojanen and myself (and our relation to the other players) and be sure of your decision when you make it. If you have any questions for me or want me to provide a case, I will do so only if you ask. If you don't want to hear any more from me, that's okay.

Vote: Ojanen

[semioldguy]

Okay, I'll be doing that tonight.

[semioldguy]

Infinis, any thoughts?
I'd vote Starbuck but she's already at L-1.
We should end up catching the scum whether it's Starbuck or semi anyway though, so I'm not sure how much added benefit long pondering today would give.

Why the hesitation here? In fact there was more wishy-washiness and hesitation from your votes on days two and three than there was on the first day. The first day you really didn't leave much self doubt about your vote on Japles because you knew he would flip scum. The next two days you knew that townies were going to be flipping and you set yourself up to wiggle out of having targeted them if the blame came around to you.

At this point I'll vote for the person that has bugged me most constantly as suspicious. I've been waiting for him to come and answer the questions that were raised about his vote on Sando but my patience is wearing out. He seemingly put Sando to L-1 for obscure self-defense reasons. His posts haven't had much substance at all, and often he has mostly responded to stuff related to him, not so much giving opinions on anything else going on in the game. Also, based on Kairyuu's timings of bringing his cases to the table, I wouldn't find the scumteam Kairyuu/Japles unlikely.

vote Japles

Okay.
I'll get to it.
This is the L-1 vote. Anyone voting Kai after this need to be fully conscious that they're hammering him unless some further unvotes happen.

vote: Kairyuu

I outlined the link between Japles and Kai already long ago, the message has been referenced several times lately but here's the link again.

I find it a lot more likely that Kai's link to Japles is due to Kai being scum than Kai having really bad luck with several instanses of timing coupled to oversight. I entered day 2 with this in my mind, I've tried to be open to other possibilities and pursue them. Infinis certainly has scummy traits. In the end I don't think it will change that I still find Kai to be the scummiest player alive. This link isn't something that can or will change and it should be inspected.

Japles was bussed. You helped in leading the charge against Japles Day One. The first vote on him was from you. But on the two townie lynches you waited until there was enough support from other players. Against Kairyuu you waited until two other votes were on him, putting him at L-1 when you finally came around to placing your vote. And when it came to Starbuck on the third day, you waited until you could hammer. The only vote you've placed with confidence has been your vote against Japles, the one you knew would turn up as scum.

I have a little more to add in a few hours, but I have to go to class at the moment.

[semioldguy]

Yes but that tells us that you hadn't payed any attention to the discussion before, Japles, looks like you still haven't. If you "always do that" then you would have been better off stating why you disagree with Kairyuu right away.
I'm kind of getting pseudo-participation vibes from you, which I don't like. On the other hand, by not stating even the silly reason you actually did the opposite to fitting in when you look at the conversation, so maybe slightly more inattentive than scummy - anyway not pro-town so far.

I get what you are saying here. I only had a few moments... which I rolled, skimmed and voted before I had to head out the door. Maybe I should have waited until I got home from work and exhausted to read the thread and then post, but I didn't... then my laptop went haywire. So I don't know how that makes me anti-town already... but hey, I understand.

So would you mind taking a stance in the Kairyuu vs. Korts thing? You're just replying to messages to you so far. Gonna have to

FoS Japles

at this point.

You got it!

With me, random voting sometimes gets good discussion going, especially on Mafiascum where we are normally total strangers. I also play off-site on a place with 10-12 rotating players, so we have gathered tells and all that from playing so much together. Hell, a few of them have stopped doing the RVS altogether.

So it is really based on who you are and how you play. I see advantages and disadvantages to the RVS.

In reading over Japles again I found it odd that he was so understanding when Ojanen brought up the exact same points as Sando had and responded much differently to her bringing up his random voting than he had of Sando's mention of it.

[semioldguy]

If you vote for me Korts, I won't harbor any hard feelings post-game. But if you do choose do vote for me, please have (and post) a reason that you are voting for me, rather than just a reason that you are not voting for Ojanen.

[semioldguy]

@ Ojanen

You bring up my opinion on Infinis as changing overnight. Are you saying that is a point against me? Are you saying that your opinions don't change overnight? Based on the lynch reveals and night killings I think town players generally have some shifting opinions as we all have new information, scum doesn't really have new information from these killings.

You've also misrepresented me splendidly, but I have another class to go to right now and I'll be back tonight.

[semioldguy]

@ Ojanen
You bring up my opinion on Infinis as changing overnight. Are you saying that is a point against me? Are you saying that your opinions don't change overnight? Based on the lynch reveals and night killings I think town players generally have some shifting opinions as we all have new information, scum doesn't really have new information from these killings.

You've also misrepresented me splendidly, but I have another class to go to right now and I'll be back tonight.

No, opinions do change.
I was bringing up that the reason you stated behind the opinion changing was something that had already happened before and during you stated your original opinion, not the reveals. I was also bringing up again Sando's point that you originally gave credit to Infinis for speculation that contained a lot of false statements. And yes, I do know you then said this was because you the the trying seemed genuine.

What are you talking about? It had not happened prior to my original statement. My original post about Infinis was in post 230. Infinis didn't hop back on again until 255, well after my first post on him.

Note that the hopping on and off happened already before semi made his first statements about Infinis on day 2.

Yes, he hopped on and and off... but if you actually read my post I mention part of my suspicion is him doing it again and he doesn't hop back on again until 255. I don't really know what you're trying to point out, but I do know that you are incorrect when you say that and looking through the thread proves it. Let me find you the relevant post progression that you seem to have ignored parts of:

Infinis

: I don't get a strong town or scum vibe from him. He could be either. However, what I do like is that he has been looking back extensively at Day One in his scum hunting attempts and bringing it into current discussion, something that I think many more people should do more often. Previous days always merit more analysis as the game progresses. His scum hunting attempts are mostly believable to me.

(This being my first post on Infinis) -Day 2

I've done my best to convince you I'm not scum. I would also like to see input from millar's replacement.

That being said I think we have a path to victory, starting with

Vote: Kairyuu

That's L-2 me and L-1 Kai

(Here's where Infinis revotes Kairyuu, twenty-five posts after my first post on infinis, which you've omitted from your post) -Day 2

I didn't like infinis' hopping on and off with his vote of Kairyuu yesterday and he is one of the top suspects at the moment in my opinion.

I'd like to hear a few things from Starbuck about the game so far. Hopefully she's had time to catch up.

(Here is my mention of me not liking the hopping) -Day 3

I'm town cop. I got innocent on korts Night 1. Night 2 I chose between Sando and Ojanen. I chose poorly.

If you consider Ojanen confirmed town, then that leaves Starbuck and semioldguy, which as I asked in my last post, how are you going to determine who is scum among them?

Town wins if we have Doc.

And semioldguy...I got off Kai's wagon at korts, a townies request, since it would have put Kai at L-1 and korts was catching up.

FoS Semioldguy

(Here is where Infinis questions what I didn't like as well as his own reasoning) -Day 3

I was referring to the fact that at the beginning of the day you went on and off him,

and then onto him again when there was more support for it.

It wasn't just about your last withdrawn vote.

(I bolded the part that you omitted from your representation of me) -Day 3

So it looks like a reason that I stated about what I didn't like about Infinis happened

AFTER

I made my first statements about Infinis on day 2.

[semioldguy]

My point for Days 2 and 3 were that you waited for other people to vote on the eventual lynched suspect before you voted. One the first day you did not wait for others to vote Japles before you voted for him.

You also said that you were the fourth vote on Kairyuu day two, that's wrong. Your vote put him at L-1, making it the third vote on him as it was 4 to lynch.

Why didn't you vote for me on your first post of the day? Especially since that post included your opinion that there was no chance in hell you would vote for anyone else today. Why didn't you think you had a reason to vote immediately?

[semioldguy]

The argument seems to be an attempt to somehow, anyhow make something out of the fact that if I was scum I would have apparently bussed Japles out of clear blue sky on Day 1.

This is an exaggeration of my point by you.

You're really, really reaching for straws here.
I said I had no particular reason to vote immediately. The IC specifically requested not voting yet, so that would have been why I had a slight preference for not voting immediately over voting immediately. I posted my viewpoint and checked to be sure that Korts had missed something and not I.

I just don't know why you would say that someone is confirmed scum to you and then in the very same post you say you don't have any particular reason to vote for that person immediately. You had to wait for Korts' approval to vote for someone that you say is a confirmed scum to you. Really?

[semioldguy]

Why did you exaggerate my point brought up against you that I quoted in Post 332?

[semioldguy]

The argument seems to be an attempt to somehow, anyhow make something out of the fact that if I was scum I would have apparently

bussed Japles

out of clear blue sky

on Day 1.

Since you don't feel that it's really an exaggeration, would you mind pointing out where you think I imply the bolded part? Because I don't think you bussed Japles out of the clear blue sky.

[semioldguy]

@ Ojanen

If you don't feel you've exaggerated, then the response wouldn't be that there is no answer to that. The response should be that you would be able to point out where you draw the conclusion from or why it is that you think I imply that you bussed Japles out of the clear blue sky as opposed to some other reason.

[semioldguy]

I don't think any of your arguments on day three held much water Ojanen. And your refusal to continue corresponding looks really bad.

By the way... if I were scum I would have definitely killed Korts instead of Infinis.

[semioldguy]

The side riddled with more replacements was the side that lost.

[semioldguy]

Yeah, I meant day four... It felt like day three for me since I replaced in.

[semioldguy]

Any hope of some more IC thoughts?

[semioldguy]

Yes I would.