Newbie 688 - Game Over, Mafia Wins!

[CF Riot]

Yeah, I remember you. That game will definitely help my read of you once I actually get to the point where you start posting. I consider myself a pretty slow reader. And I'm in a few other games so that will add to it. And I have finals tomorrow and Friday. T.T; But I promise I'm making headway. Top of page 11.

Letting you guys know I'm here, and I'm also going to

unvote

until I'm caught up, though BM don't get too comfortable because you're leading my scumlist right now. More soon(ish).

[CF Riot]

It's the weekend. I

will

finish my reread tonight. Top of page 12 currently. I never saw the deadline post. Can someone tell me when deadline is exactly?

Mod:

would you be so kind as to include our deadline somewhere before or after the votecount please?

[CF Riot]

2 and a half hours later and here's what we got. All straight from my notes. A little unorganized, please excuse me.

Panamon's vote/reasoning for Zade is okay. Panamon did not break any rules, and I don't even think what he did is "dirty" like Moses keeps saying. However, what was scummy was him (Pan) jumping ship when people said he reason was lame, and throwing his new vote on Mastin who was a popular wagon at the time.
----
Moses left the Mastin wagon at just the right time for me, and voted Pan just when I felt like Pan was looking scummy. Therefore I felt like Moses was playing smart and townish. However I noticed now after the spat between him and BM that his reason for the vote is not so logical. I also don't understand why he's so avidly defending Zade(me), although maybe this is unintentional and a byproduct of attacking BM(Pan).
----
WC looks scummish to me. Mostly short posts. Nothing to controversial. Usually a passing comment about an ongoing spat or his interpretation of another player's action. However there's no intensity to any of it. He doesn't seem like he's looking for some unknown villain, he looks like he's biding his time until a good looking wagon comes along. Staying active, but not making waves, and keeping his opinions close to neutral. I'll find quotes to back this up after I decide how much I believe what I'm writing. (At this point I started marking down posts that caught my eye, but never went back to previously read pages. 309, 319, 435 were good examples. I notice other people already picked up on this though.)
----
Fixit rubs me all the wrong ways

(dirty, dirty minds)

but I'm waiting right now because I can't tell if he's just more aggressive than I'm used to. Some of the arguments he's made have made me cringe, but that's not saying they were scummy. I wouldn't claim a fixit/SL scum pair right now just based on their interactions. If anything, it looked more to me like fixit buddying up to someone who was helping him lynch his target.
----
BM 291, c'mon now. He's leaving the game for poop's sake, you really think he's trying to look townish in the way he replaces out? The more I read of you, the more I get the feeling that you're one of those guys who's an asshole equally to your friends and people you don't like, and you don't mind people knowing it. If this sounds like an insult it's not meant to be, I'm sort of that way IRL. You laughed at Moses's rebound burn on you about the pocket dictionary. Good sport.

Recap, yes Pan was scummy but BM hasn't been really. The one problem I saw with his play was his initial fights with Fixit. I read it something like this:

• BM: Weak case, bus, bus, bus. Nevermind, you're okay.
  Fixit: OMGUS, defend, defend, defend. No problem, we're pals now.

After a quick little spat, they're now voting together and seem to be chasing a lot of the same suspects.
----
Crysnia hadn't seemed overly scummy to me, and I was curious about those who thought she was, until post 313. A seemingly unprovoked claim. I don't like it, but I'm going to stay on the safe side and pull the newb card.
----
Dusky 318 I feel ya bro. No love for the lonely replacement.

417, that's sort of completely wrong.

I find it interesting how BM's case on me solely consists of my wishywashiness. He hasn't noted anything other than that. Have I done anything else that's scummy? If not you can hardly bring a case against me.

Wishywashiness is

a)

not a word and

b)

legitimately scummy. It has many names like, riding the fence, bandwagoning, etc. It's valid scum play because it keeps you from having to push a case that may not go through. Now it's not a definite indicator of scum in every case (nothing is) but you need to adapt to the idea that this isn't the best way to play. If it's a personal trait, you need to try and compensate for that. (My opinion.)
----
OP: 346, you're right, so FIX THAT PART of your game. It will help you in that you won't have to waste time arguing it down in future games, and it will help the town not mislynch you when you're town.
----
519 is good posting. Keep that up.


The vote thing is tough. The people I'm suspicious of are all making this big vote triangle that makes me afraid to side with any of them. I'm going to stick with the only person I have supporting evidence for. WC (in my head I call you Wailing Caverns) seems like a good D1 lynch.

Vote: WeatheredClown

L-1.

[CF Riot]

Mod:

Votecount at the top of this page needs editing.

I'm actually glad Fixit died, (no offense to you personally =]) because I thought he was probable scum today. He was crying "cop" a lot D1, which made me think he was cop at first. Then when WC flipped I thought Fixit might have been scum trying to fake-crumb cop (WC had been voting Fixit, so I figured he might have picked up on this as well.) So there's my useless insights from yesterday.

Moses has some explaining to do for hammering a Cop pre-claim. That's the big issue for today I think.

Crysnia, no one likes being hounded, and it's worse if people gang up on you. That said, this is how the game is played. If you don't like defending yourself or having others point the finger at you, you need to ask to be replaced. The "poor me" bit doesn't cut it. Don't take it personally because I'm not dogging you, but I'd like a little more effort and a little less gripe.

OP, do you support the WC lynch or disagree with it and why? Why did you not have a vote out yesterday when the ball dropped? Who would it have been on and why?

[CF Riot]

That's a pretty unsatisfactory answer. What did you learn from his flip, who do you suspect now, night wifom, etc.? I'm going to go ahead and quote these for effect, because they will come up eventually.

Vote: WeatheredClown L-1.

<------ (arrow added)

But yeah, Weather your cue to claim is now if you want to.

Anyways, in the interest of consensus, I'll switch my vote over.

Does not follow your claim of "whoops, sorry."

[CF Riot]

I don't understand what you two are arguing over. MrFixit said in

some

situations, lynching a townie ends up being better for that town than lynching a scum would have been. Crysnia thought that was a scummy thing to say. Well, now we know that Fixit is not scum. Aldi thinks Crysnia twisted Fixit's words. Not exactly, as Fixit

did

say it was sometimes better, but I think she did sort of take it out of context when she claimed he was promoting

trying

to lynch town on purpose. Can we argue about something else now?

[CF Riot]

If Crysnia said, "You know what Aldi, you're right. I guess I did twist his words," do you think that warrants a vote on her? If she somehow convinced you beyond a shadow of a doubt that she did not twist Fixit's words, would you still be voting her?

[CF Riot]

MLF, you didn't really answer any of my questions earlier. Did the WC flip tell you anything? What is your opinion of Fixit being NKed? What leads do you have today? New; is your read on OP low content town, lurker scum, or something else?

Aldy, do you have any read on OP?

OP, why vote Crysnia now when all this "word twisting" was going on yesterday? What happened to your BM vote? Still scummy but Crys is scummier, or no longer scummy to you?

[CF Riot]

I'm actually glad Fixit died, . .

<snip>

FoS: CF Riot
I was just about to say that Mrfixjj dying was a towntell for you, given that you had attacked him just before the end of the day.

But if you felt he was a Cop, that gives you some motive.

You do know that WC already flipped Cop right? I said I thought he (Fixit) was dropping cop tells that day, and when WC flipped real-cop, that made me suspicious of Fixit-scum.

[CF Riot]

Setting up a fake-claim down the road. Is this really that confusing to you? I don't see what's complicated about it. I said I

thought

(past tense) he looked scummy after I learned WC's alignment. Therefore, when he got NKed it was helpful for me because it eliminated a suspect. I guess he was not intentionally dropping cop tells, I just misread what he was doing.

Look at Fixit's posts 36-38, 64, 73, and 78 in isolation to see what I'm referencing.

I'd like more posting from MLF.

[CF Riot]

MLF, you didn't really answer any of my questions earlier. Did the WC flip tell you anything? What is your opinion of Fixit being NKed? What leads do you have today? New; is your read on OP low content town, lurker scum, or something else?

I rather dislike repeating myself. I wanted to get answers first and make votes later, but this one was coming anyways.

Vote: Moses le fou
FoS OP

. You sure are switching your vote around a lot today for someone who didn't have any reads at all yesterday. Explain your new vote on BM plz.

[CF Riot]

WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT MRFIXJJ WAS TOWN, why would he breadcrumb Cop?

He wouldn't. That's why I'm glad he died. It kept me from pushing a case that would have been wrong.

Why would CF's earlier suspicion that Fixij was breadcrumbing cop matter now that Fixij has been revealed as vanilla?

It doesn't. I never thought it did.

I'm actually glad Fixit died,

blah, blah, blah.

So there's my useless insights from yesterday.

I was just giving my thoughts on the previous day and NK.

All I can guess is that it was an unintentional breadcrumb.

Yes, I would guess as much. I doubt he did it on purpose. I did something similar my first game when I said something about eating an apple (IRL) and someone thought I was crumbing doc (I wasn't).

That out of the way, MLF is speaking up on this topic quite a bit, but

still

hasn't bothered to address me about who he suspects today or speak in his defense about my vote.

[CF Riot]

MLF, what's your read of OP?

[CF Riot]

I really think we should lynch MLF. His vote on Pan was poorly reasoned. Quick hammer on a cop (even if he didn't know his alignment beforehand). Poor excuse for it. Fence sitting today.

[CF Riot]

Thanks. What he said.

MLF, would you say your vote falls into the OMGUS category, or do you think I am scum backtracking to frame you? Are there any other underlying reasons supporting that vote, besides the one mentioned?

[CF Riot]

MLF I don't know if it's bad luck or if you really are guilty of this, but your last vote looked almost as OMGUS as your vote on me. That said, OP's vote actually looked scummy.

OP, what happened? The situation with MLF has been there since the day began. What happened to your other vote, on Crysnia? You said you suspected her, then said the case on BM was stronger than that. Now MLF trumps both of them for something that we've known for 4 pages? Also, BM is voting MLF. If you think BM is scum, does that mean you think he's bussing MLF? How do those reconcile with each other?

[CF Riot]

SL, I've been holding my opinion of you because neither of us have had much direct dialogue. Everything you've said came before I replaced. I'd like to know what you find scummy about Aldy. I have a neutral, maybe slight town read.

I got a town read from Zade before I read my role PM, so I think he did just fine. The thing that got pressed the most was the whole "rule-break" tryst, which I thought was pointless. I don't think it indicated scumminess either way (him or Pan). Is there something specific you had problems with?

Also, what does this quote,

I've changed my mind about OP, his last post reads natural independently of content.

mean? I don't think it's suspicious, I just don't understand what it means.
----

CF, congratulations, you're my #2. I don't have a case, nor am I gonna make one today, or tomorrow, on you.

This is lol. Also, notice SL gets off because no-read = town-read, and Crys gets off because... well just because I have to be the number 2. =]

[CF Riot]

Mod: Please prod

Crysnia and BM.

Bump?

[CF Riot]

BM, do you believe MLF's doc claim? Why/why not?

Aldy, pretend Crysnia isn't in the game. Who would you be voting and why?

[CF Riot]

I am not willing to lynch an un-counterclaimed doc.

BM quoting this just reminded me of another thought I'd had. I will say at this point, no I don't believe MLF's claim. That is not to say I think he is lying, but merely to say I'm holding judgment until more info is presented. Undecided would be the word.

However, I will point out that if he

is

telling the truth, he is absolutely useless now that he's claimed. If MLF is the doc, then the scum

do

have a RB, therefore MLF's night action is useless. In the event that we lynch the (possible) RB, it immediately confirms MLF, so he would undoubtedly be the NK for the following night. Ergo, he is still useless as a doc. Because it has already been pointed out that doc is a potential safeclaim for scum, I would argue to OP that MLF claiming doc holds no weight. Therefore, if you are still suspicious of MLF, there is no reason to unvote him.

[CF Riot]

I'm an excellent IC, and you should all give me cash monies and blood offerings to show your gratitude. (That was a joke, I'm not really

that

cocky.)

Spring

:

Also, what does this quote,

I've changed my mind about OP, his last post reads natural independently of content.

mean? I don't think it's suspicious, I just don't understand what it means.

This, and if you can mathematically or otherwise convince me that

Uncounterclaimed doc has still a better chance of not being scum.

is valid, I'll be satisfied. I'm looking for something where the odds of being town are greater than 50%.

[CF Riot]

Tell me, can you prove mathematically that the odds of being town for any of the remaining player is greater than 50%? Then please do the maths proving that the chances for Moses to be town are not greater than everybody else, and I'll correct you.

I'm not sure why you are arguing this point.

1. If you are lobbying for an OP wagon, I think of all OP's fault, not wanting to lynch uncounterclaimed doc is not a damning one.

2. If your purpose is to convict Moses le Fou on the ground that he claimed doc, I think it is pretty scummy.

Neither. Please stop trying to guess my intent and answer the questions I pose. You've ignored the first twice now, and didn't even attempt to answer the second even though you clearly read it.

I suppose 50% was the wrong number to use in my second request. What I'm trying to say is this. Can you prove to me that, given the circumstances of this game, claiming doctor changes the likelihood of a person being scum

at all

. My thinking is, there are

only

two possibilities.

• There is a doc. -> MLF is telling the truth.
  There is no doc. -> MLF is lying, and most likely scum.

Given the information we already know (WC was cop) the chance of a doctor existing in this set-up is 50%.

Next I consider the scenario in which there is no doc. Given that WC flipped before MLF was at claiming point, we can safely assume that the chance that any scum (MLF in this example) would attempt a fake-doc-claim when pressured is 100%. (If there are 2 goons, they

know

doc is a safe-claim. Therefore, they have absolutely

no

reason to claim vanilla instead of doc.)

Therefore, since the probability that a doc claim will be truthful is at 50%, I consider a person claiming doc to change the probability of them being scum by 0%.

Do you understand what I'm saying?

[CF Riot]

Actually, now that I reconsider the situation, MLF claiming doc actually

increases

the likelihood that he is scum.

If we're in a set-up where there

is no

doc, the likelihood of scum fake-claiming doc when pressured is 100%. (See my previous post.)

If we're in a set-up where there

is

a doc, the likelihood of scum fake-claiming doc is debatable, but definitely greater than 0%. (My personal opinion and your personal opinion of what this number might actually be is irrelevant, as long as we all agree that scum

might

attempt a fake-claim even though they know the actual doctor is still alive and hidden. Let's call this number <X>.)

Since we don't know which set-up we're in, we must average the two. This means the probability that scum will claim doc is a 51% minimum. (Possibly more, depending on the actual value of <X>.)

I realized after I typed the previous text and thought about it for a while, that in the instance of scum fake-claiming doc when an actual doc was present, there would definitely be a counter-claim. Therefore, the chance of scum claiming doc in our game (with no counter) is at exactly 50%, just like a real doc. However, the rest of my post stands. I left the previous to show my thought process.

In a set-up where there is a doc, the doc will claim doc 100% of the time.
In a set-up where there is no doc, the doc will claim doc 0% of the time.

The means the probability that doc will claim doc is 50% exactly.

On top of all this, add the fact that there are 2 scum who could potentially claim doc, and only 1 doc who could potentially claim doc. This means that scum is twice as likely to claim doc than doc is to claim doc. From this we can further conclude that when faced with a doc claim, it's more likely that the claimer is lying scum than an actual doctor.

The actual numbers are 7.14% probability that MLF is a doctor, 14.29% probability that MLF is scum, based on claim alone.

----

Aldy, what are you talking about? His accusations against me or his accusations against you? If me, I sort of already addressed that. He's saying

if

I'm trying to do <x> or <y>, then I'm scummy. I'm not trying to do either of those, so basically he's saying nothing.

[CF Riot]

Eeek. Sorry, I knew that. Using "he" regardless of who I'm referring to is a bad habit. I apologize.

Why do you ask? She's entitled to her opinion. I don't see anything about her accusation that fails logically. I personally disagree, but I don't think she's more likely to be scum for having that opinion of you.

[CF Riot]

I've changed my mind about OP, his last post reads natural independently of content.

What does this mean?

Uncounterclaimed doc has still a better chance of not being scum.

Can you back this up at all?

----

Unrelated, Fixit's last post reaks of MLF buddying.

[CF Riot]

SL, I'm not sure what you're implying with looking forward to my response of Aldy's post. I have noticed a trend of buddying with me from him, so maybe you think you've found a scum-link. I dunno. I can't really defend against that for him.

I've actually been strongly considering an OP/SL team as a possibility since MLF claimed doc, but I had been sitting on it to try and get honest reactions out of the two. Now that I'm suddenly dancing near a lynch for

some

no reason, I guess I better say what I want to say before it's too late. Since I've come out with it, there's no point in keeping my vote on MLF, although I do legitimately think he's been scummy this game, and I do think his doc claim does not absolve his earlier actions.

Unvote. Vote: OrangePenguin

I'll start quoting the things I've been picking up on, but I have work in less than an hour so I may not finish today.

[CF Riot]

Wow OP is seriously lynched? I'm still writing my case on him. It's good. Wait I'll post it anyways.

[CF Riot]

Ok, OP is first. I put my vote on him rather than SL because I think OP has been scummy enough independently of SL. He is more likely scum than SL, although I will show links later.



OP rides out the first 7 pages by active lurking and staying neutral. He makes small comments about Mastin and Pan that pretty much follow the town consensus, but he stays mostly quiet.

Post 164 he defends his fence sitting by naming some suspects, but he's still staying neutral by not voting and keeping his options open. 3 suspects, none too far ahead of the others and all only "mildly scummy".

Mastin, future advice:

Never go on gut feelings alone

. Sometimes gut feelings can be correct, but generally, you should at least go by actual in-thread evidence, if you expect people to agree with you. Also, scum tend to go by gut, as an excuse to justify their votes, so just food for thought.

An interesting quote that completely contradicts his play regarding me today. Bolding mine.

OP's first vote is on MLF. Someone questions this vote and OP backs off, saying his vote was only for pressure.

I feel my vote on Moses is justified at this point. I haven't really voted at all this game, so it's merely a pressure vote at this point on a person I feel is scummy. Interesting results.

This is the entirety of post 510 by OP.

Since this seems to be mrfixij's favourite thing to do....

Aldus: What do you think of Mrfixij or Orange Penguin?

Hmm, an easier way to go about this, instead of each person asking aldus what he thinks of two people THEY think are scummy, maybe we can ask his opinions on ALL the players and who HE thinks is scum.

I don't really think BM is scum. I really don't. =/

This is his very next post, 554.

Show me where I voted for him. I said I thought he was suspicious. I gave why I thought he was suspicious. But to me Orangepenguin was and still is my prime suspect. The fact that you'd be willing to give someone a free ride the first two days is also starting to get suspicious. Honestly though whatever.

Mmmm, alright.

Vote: Battle Mage

This is just one of many examples of OP vote hopping when an opportunity arises. Others are Post 581 and Post 608.

I also think sl's lurking is kind of suspicious too, but I don't think it's a scum tell, so, ergo, she is not a suspect.

This is one example of OP lightly defending SL.

There are lots of problems with 639. For one, the reasoning for the vote has been around since the day started, and this is the first time OP shows any interest. He hasn't said anything about being suspicious of MLF previous to this post. It is also at a point when MLF's wagon looks to be at full steam, very opportunistic.

OP makes a scum list in post 649. He gives SL a free ride from this list, with this as his justification.

I really have no read of sl. So I am just going to mark her as town for now, since I have no suspicion or anything.

This is also the post where Crysnia is no longer scum because BM and I must both be on his scum list, even though he says his only basis for me being there is gut.

This post is OP trying to keep discussion of MLF-scum in play, even though he himself has said he believes the doc-claim. At the same time he's casting suspicion on Fixit for "defending" MLF.

729 is actually an L-1 vote (SL's vote was missed) right after Fixit placed a vote on me. Opportunistic because my wagon is building fast and also scummy because OP had been pushing the idea of a BM/Riot team claiming BM was his #1 suspect and he had a better read on him, but now that my lynch is more appealing that doesn't matter.

[CF Riot]

Can't now, late for work. Will when I get off around 8-ish. If OP is really town, I'm sad that I did all that work for nothing.

[CF Riot]

It's possible that the mafia decided not to kill because they anticipated me protecting somebody in particular and when I announced whom I protected it would confirm that person as town.

This is absolutely wrong. What happens if last night you targeted mafia and got roleblocked? For that matter, what happens if you targeted mafia and didn't get roleblocked? Who you target doesn't matter. It tells nothing about their alignment.
----
No-lynch is the correct move in theory, but we know for a fact that the mafia just no-killed. There's no reason for them not to do it again. I say simply out of honor's sake, they made the right move first. Now the burden of drawing first is on us.
----

Spring

or

CF are likely scum.

Is that an "and/or", or just an "or"? I mean, do you think it's possible that we are both scum, or would we be on mutually exclusive teams? Also, why are either of us likely scum in the first place?
----
I have a guess, but I'd like to sit on it for a while. OP being town was a bummer. Most of what I had on SL was tied to OP being scum, so I'm not going to make that case until later, and that's only if I need to.
----
Also, this.
10/9/08 Farside22: "Brain = No; Balls = HELL YES" It was a mish-mash game where I was outnumbered 4-1 in a WIFOM game.
11/12/08 Wall-E: "I admire your balls." This one was a D1 decision where 9 of the other 11 players had decided on something, and it was pretty much agreed (amongst them) that going against it was scummy. A few days till deadline, I said the plan was crap, and voted against it. If you read what happened down the line, I was right.

[CF Riot]

Because of what's already been said. Forcing the mafia to kill a non-mafia player reduces the number of potential targets without reducing the number of lynches we get until game over.

I said I don't think we should even try this, because if the mafia has no-killed once, there's absolutely no reason for them to change their plan tonight if we no-lynch the ball back into their court. Also, I think if we had NL'd before they no-K'd, it'd be a (excuse me) pussy move for them to rebound it right back. I think the same applies for us. I don't want to be ... one of those.

The links are for SL who requested them. Try this one.

[CF Riot]

Mr.Fixij

.

I think . . . that Spring or CF are likely scum.

Also, why are either of us likely scum in the first place?

Unanswered.

Aldus leaning town

Why?
----

I was trying to think of a reason why the mafia didn't kill last night. And the best I could think of was that they would pretend that they didn't roleblock me.

So do you understand that who you protected is completely irrelevant and doesn't prove anything? What you meant was, you think the mafia would try to promote that angle??
----

Aldy

, who is the first half of post 811 aimed at?

[CF Riot]

MLF, I was just confused and trying to get you to elaborate further. Now that I am perfectly clear on your thought process, let me help you. The first theory did not happen. That's horrible scum-play, and highly unlikely.

I agree that Fixit saying that you-as-scum deciding to no-kill to back-up your doc claim is also crap logic. Obviously, this is another terrible scum-move, (because of potential RB) and wouldn't happen. It is much, much more likely that his other theory (WIFOM the town) is what happened (whether you are scum or not).

2/6

IS

better for scum. Especially in this scenario. That's enough incentive to no-kill right there.

[CF Riot]

Why would you make the case if you no longer think it is valid?

Most

of it was tied to OP. Not all.

Moreover, why did you feel the need to post a case on OP yesterday when he had already been lynched?

I started writing the case as soon as I voted him, and in the time it took to look up the posts and write my reasoning, SL hammered. Erasing it would've been a waste, and on top of that it would've been useful if OP actually flipped scum. At the time I posted it, the mod hadn't confirmed OP's town claim.

I don't do draws. And it's not that I mind taking advantage of a situation to increase the chance of winning, I just don't think no-lynching would accomplish anything. I assume the mafia is willing to no-kill as often as we are willing to no-lynch.

you thoughts on Alduskkel and my twilight conversation with him please.

I don't know what you're talking about. Aldy setting up a vote on me based off your gut is scummy, yes. Is that what you want?

your reason to hammer OP on the grounds of claiming scum, is BS.

Agree.

MR. FIXIJ, RESPOND TO POST 812!

Thanks.

[CF Riot]

Ok fixij, then tell me this. Where is BM? He's not town, but he's not a suspect like me and SL. When did he get crossed off in the elimination process?

[CF Riot]

This game is hard. 861 is right. I'd like to hear who MLF thinks is scum.

[CF Riot]

Wrong post. I was talking about SL's comment on MLF. But to answer your question, no, I think you meant he was scum with tunnel vision. But I will point out that doesn't make sense. If he's scum tunnel visioned on you, he's doing it on purpose and you shouldn't care... because he's scum. The only time a townie would be concerned that another player has tunnel-vision is if they think that player is also a townie. Intentionally ignoring other valid cases is not tunnel-vision, and it

is

something scum would do, but I don't think that's what you meant about SL since you didn't call him scum in that post.

[CF Riot]

Oh, then I completely misread the whole argument. You do think she's town, and you do think she's got TV on you. Then I don't see what the problem is. That doesn't make you scummy, I don't know why SL even mentioned it really.

[CF Riot]

Vote: Moses

. Honestly, whether I'm right or wrong, scum played good this game.

No lynching is stupid, but if you guys want to then that's fine.

[CF Riot]

I think Moses is scum. I don't really think Aldy is, but at this point I've thrown all my town reads out the window. I don't really have this game split into town and scum anymore. Just "maybe scum" and "probably scum".

The issue you're pushing of Aldy-scum setting up a wagon hop based off your gut is valid, but I just don't see it as being as scummy as MLF's play all game. Up until the end of yesterday, I had a pretty good town read on Aldy. Like I said, you're right and everything, but the fact that it's coming from you (who I'm still very much suspicious of) takes away from that a bit. It doesn't seem like you saw something scummy and reacted, it seems like you finally found something solid to press a mislynch over.

MLF staying neutral today is just more scum play from an already scummy player.

[CF Riot]

Or just get super active, so we don't need one.

[CF Riot]

@No Lynch: L-1. Claim time. (smile)

Booo.

[CF Riot]

Please prod BM.

Thanks.

[CF Riot]

Ready when you are, Cap'n.

Seriously though, show of hands. Who actually thinks anyone is going to die tonight?

[CF Riot]

So when am I allowed to vote MLF? BM why is what Aldy said more scummy than MLF asking to bring WIFOM into play in the first place?

Also, GJ scum in proving me wrong. GJ town for not listening to me yesterday.

[CF Riot]

@Moses

: No lynching actually was a good idea. I was really against it because I thought it wouldn't accomplish anything, but it did. We're better off with SL dead, cause that's one more cleared townie. I thought SL was scum yesterday. I almost voted him at one point. There's nothing wrong with the situation we're in now, as long as the town players are cautious and don't throw their votes around.

As for your question, I actually think BM is at number 2 now. But it's really tight as far as my suspects go. No one is outside the spectrum of me voting them today (OMG scum! I know.) and no one is definitely who I want to lynch either. Not even you.

Who do you suspect? Number 1 and 2.
----
BM what you're saying makes zero sense. You were the only one to say anything about Aldy being lynched. MLF asked if we should speculate over whether SL being dead is related to him suspecting Aldy, which MLF admitted was WIFOM. Aldy said basically, "sure, but it probably won't help." Aldy's lynch wasn't brought up until you posted. Even then, how does that relate at all to him ignoring the severity of lylo?
----
Aldy you still haven't said who's scum. I don't really remember you saying if anyone was scum yesterday either. Who would you like to vote right now?

[CF Riot]

Kudos for not dropping out. Big ones. Also, wrong answer.

MLF/BM scum team. I'll look up the old accusations on MLF later. Abridged version is crap logic on the pan vote, quick hammer on cop, now BM dropping off his scumdar for lurking (WTF?).

BM really is pulling a lot from gut. I got a bad feeling about him on my initial read of the game. I don't like his stance today, which I think is really stretching and poor reasoning, and I think the scum team has at least one experienced player on their side because of the no-kill.

Again, this is the short version. I'll look up the hard evidence when I get time.

MOD please prod Mr.fixij

.

[CF Riot]

BM really is pulling a lot from gut.

Me following gut instinct isnt anything new, but i think im being pretty damn logical here.

Pardon for being too ambiguous. My statement means, "My reason for suspecting BM is pulling a lot from my gut."

[CF Riot]

Wow. Epic tag fail. I think I understand it though. We really can't move forward until Fixij decides to play.

[CF Riot]

Damn you for making me do work. Why can't I just make generalized statements for you all to agree with!?

Moses left the Mastin wagon at just the right time for me, and voted Pan just when I felt like Pan was looking scummy. Therefore I felt like Moses was playing smart and townish. However I noticed now after the spat between him and BM that his reason for the vote is not so logical. I also don't understand why he's so avidly defending Zade(me), although maybe this is unintentional and a byproduct of attacking BM(Pan).

Bad because A) it appears his vote is being put in a spot he thinks it should be, but he doesn't understand the reason why it should be there (thus the crap logic), and B) he's buddying up to a townie.

No claim hammer. See also.

I really think we should lynch MLF. His vote on Pan was poorly reasoned. Quick hammer on a cop (even if he didn't know his alignment beforehand). Poor excuse for it. Fence sitting today.

Immediately following the above, total OMGUS. Never justified either.

[CF Riot]

MLF, why aren't you voting Alduskkel?

Thanks for pointing out the timing of the hammer thing. That's relevant.

[CF Riot]

Posted too soon. Aldy, what impressions did you get after reading my summary of my MLF case?

[CF Riot]

I meant I should have put that question in the first post before I hit submit.

=======================================

Page 40 Votecount

mrfixij: (0/3)
Alduskkel: (1/3) Battle Mage
Moses le fou: (0/3)
CF Riot: (0/3)
Battle Mage: (0/3)

Not Voting: (4/5) mrfixij, Alduskkel, Moses le fou, CF Riot,

With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch!
=======================================

[CF Riot]

I think Vollkan copied the entire post that the last votecount was on and added that to my post when he put the new votecount up there. That freaked me out too. The first sentence is mine, everything after that got copied.

Well, either Aldy is scum, or something is weird here. The only one not voting him is the guy I think is scum, so if Aldy was town, MLF would hammer anyways. Yet I'm still reluctant to vote. Spring, has anything happened since you died that was interesting to you at all? Who's Aldy's buddy if he's scum?

[CF Riot]

SL, you remind me of Scotty "The Prince of Poker" Nguyen. I know why I'm paired with Aldy but it sucks cause I don't think I have any explanation for it. I actually hope Aldy is town for the simple fact that if he's scum I might be screwed anyways. SL is there any reason you're voting Aldy now putting the game on the line rather than talking it out and asking to be the hammer? I guess what that means is unvote plz.

Aldy, yeah everything you wrote is right. It's just both scum hopping on right away like that seems unlikely, and I don't have to consider if MLF just hasn't shown up yet because if that's the case we're doomed anyways.

[CF Riot]

MLF, do you think it's more probably Aldy + BM, SL + BM, or some other combination?

[CF Riot]

Vote: Battle Mage

If MLF is scum I've already lost. I think the spat between Aldy/Crysnia was genuine, and I think SL's attack against him now is real too. This means I don't think they are bussing, but I don't know which is scum yet. However, either way, they must be paired with BM for me (town) to even have a shot. Therefore, voting BM is my only logical action.

[CF Riot]

Can't explain, late for work. Think about it though.

[CF Riot]

It's fine, I figured that's what happened.

What I figure is, one of BM and SL has to be scum. The only way that's not true is if it's Aldy + MLF, and if that's the case then I'm screwed because SL is already connecting me to Aldy (for good reasons) and I'll be the (mis)lynch tomorrow. Therefore, I must assume at least one of BM and SL (possibly both) are scum to even have a chance of still winning this game. I think it is not a SL + Aldy pair, therefore it's either SL + BM or Aldy + BM. Therefore BM is scum no matter what. Thus, vote.

This is really unorthodox play, and if there are any newbies still reading along, don't take this as an example. The situation is just really bad, and I have almost zero reads, so I'm sort of making a desperation move based on what I can reason out of the situation.

[CF Riot]

OMG, I'm so confused now. Aldy, who do you think the scums are? (I know I'm being repetitive, sorry.) Why?

BM, who's Aldy's partner? (Assuming Aldy is scum.)

Depending on these answers, I may have some questions for SL and MLF too, but I'd appreciate it if no one answer for anyone else.

[CF Riot]

Not really. I actually just wanted to see Aldy's answer, and he answered right. I didn't want MLF to jump in and point out the obvious "if Aldy is town, he knows it's SL/BM". I really don't even care about BM's answer now, cause I know who the last scum are.

MLF, it's all on you. No hurry.

[CF Riot]

I don't have any clue. I could not see Aldy scum. Sorry. Fwiw I think it's BM still, even though I didn't think Aldy was scum. MLF is conf. town now, which I assume everyone already knows but might as well say it.

The reason I said I didn't see Aldy/SL was because even though I agree SL-scum would

have

to come out strong against Aldy after replacing in, I don't think SL-scum would try to get Aldy-scum modkilled, because there was still a chance that someone else would go up on the chopping block yesterday (like what I did to BM). That said to me that SL really wanted Aldy dead, and wasn't just acting.

I realize the mountain of circumstances against me. All I can say is I really bought Aldy as town, and he played it to his advantage big-time. I've explained my thought process, and there's really no chance of a quick-hammer, so I'll vote now. SL, despite the circumstances, if you think I'm scum then the burden of proof is on you. I realize defenses are over-rated but I think if you just try to make a case against me, that will help you realize that it's not there.

Vote: BM

[CF Riot]

If you think I intentionally no-killed to profit myself, why don't we no-lynch? I was the first to come right out and say MLF is conf. town, so obviously (if I were scum) I would've realized that going into night. Honestly, in the situation last night, had I been scum I would have targeted SL and hoped to win MLF's vote since he said I had been looking townish all game. Again, I know the circumstances are all pointing to me. I can only assume BM is trying his hardest to frame me. His last post looks like a scum-slip.

I don't think I can make a "case" on BM. However, don't take that to mean that he can't be scum. The best case I've made all game was on OP, and he was town. I've thought every townie that's died so far and our doc were more scummy than Aldy or BM. The only reason I've put a vote on him all game is because of process of elimination.

[CF Riot]

Swear I'm town. It's not that I'm not trying, I just don't think me making a list of every little mistake BM has made during the game will accomplish anything. I always try to be a good IC, so don't cite this later as me being a bad townie and not trying to argue myself out of a lynch. All I can say to MLF is trust your read on me.

[CF Riot]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 52#1489352

Ha, I

was

coaching. I thought he was town. ALL GAME. This was like, a personal low for me as far as finding scum goes. Pan and BM set off flags on my initial read of the game, but by D2 BM just sank further and further down the list and I was seeing ghost scum everywhere.

Whoever had me pegged as the No-Kill'er was spot on. xD

Me, but I thought SL was just as likely. I think the first No-K was a good move, but why on earth didn't you No-K again after we No-lynched? That was just a huge waste of time.

I'm still on the fence about whether I should've tried to make a case on BM. I felt like it would only make me look worse, because it would've been totally fabricated even from my town perspective. The only reason I was voting BM was because he

had

to be scum, not because he acted scummy. Honestly, the game made more sense to me with Aldy and I being scum than it did with Aldy and BM being scum, and when I hit that point I knew things looked dim. =P

Grats to BM and Aldy. MLF, sorry for giving you so much hell man. I actually exaggerated some of it to see how others would react, but yeah I really thought you were scum most of the game.

I

hate

getting lynched.

[CF Riot]

I didn't really think what you were doing was exposing anything. Generally, when you talk about another player you're not suspicious of, it's a given that you're assuming they're town. If I remember right, in this game you were saying something like SL had tunnel vision, which implied that he was town even though you shouldn't know for sure he was. That didn't seem like a slip to me, it just seemed like you were concerned that another player had tunnel vision. I don't remember, it's been a long time since we finished this game. Why are you two posting here again all of a sudden? Why did I noticed it? Lol.