Newbie 689 - Game Over - Town Wins

[VisMaior]

glad to see the game has started -- thought i'd better post something now cos i probably won't be around for a while (it's a sleep thing) -- look forward to seeing some posts from the ICs when i get back

Oh hey!

random vote idea

Your turn

[VisMaior]

Im the other IC.
scum=mafia
random voting is usual early game tactic to spark discussion.

[VisMaior]

I think Im above average, but then again, I might be wrong. I have done my share of bad decisions in the past. Some I dont want to even remember.

[VisMaior]

You might want to dwell on that a bit.

[VisMaior]

Yes. Also, this is generally the sort of pace non-newbie games operate at.

[VisMaior]

Voting wont help you there buddy. A day or two without access isnt a big deal. Let me catch up.

[VisMaior]

Ok lets see:

Unvote, vote Waffles

Bandwagoning is horrible! Never do it.

Arent you supposed to be IC?
[quote="MafiaSSK
I don't believe we're in the RVS stage any longer.

unvote

This is exactly what I was doing.[/quote]

No it wasnt. You said bandwagonning is a nono. RVS stage has an explicit end now?

This isnt much but its the best I see so far.

unvote, vote MafiaSSK

[VisMaior]

FOS: Tax
an agreepost! Hah!

[VisMaior]

I disagree. 2 days is hardly prodworthy.

Ill have to reread.

[VisMaior]

There is no such thing as too much content.

[VisMaior]

thats wrong

I feel I must apologize, as I have not given this game the time it deserves.

Having said that TAX and _over9billion are my top suspects right now.
TAX has made quiet a few scummy posts, a bit of distancing with his "do not quicklynch" stuff, agreeposts, his claim idea.
_overSomeNumber has quiet some bad logic going on, with defenses like "I cant be scummy, I voted for the person wfirst who currently has most votes".

Im pretty confident one of them is scum.

vote TAX

And someone asked: an agreepost goes like this:
[beginpost]I AGREE![/endpost]
It has a very scummy feel, as it does two things: 1 its a post to avoid lurkingness without having to put actual thinking into it, 2 agrees with someone without doing any kind of reasoning itself. Noobie scum often thinks that is a good reference later, saying "I agreed with a townie!" but it isnt.

[VisMaior]

Having said that, I also find it a bit strange that you choose my one weak reason out of many strong ones that I should be scum, practically ignoring the rest of my posts.

Yea, because it takes only 1 slip. Whats your point?

[VisMaior]

Hi! Let me do a reread and some PBP.

[VisMaior]

PBPA coming up

Randomvoting stage
29 by _over#### -> followpost with vote, scumpoints+1
Noobie reasonings by hoopla, idea, TAX
51 by TAX: lets massclaim! ->BAD, this could be extreme noobness or scummy, Ill give this a half scumpoint
56 by over urging to kill someone-> quicklynch BAD! again, this is half a scumpint Also, he bandwagons Lightwolf, then later uses bandwagonning as a reason to vote Waffles.
58/59 by TAX agrees with mmm, then disagrees with over. Unvotes hoopla, foses over. Why only FOS over? ->
this could be distancing. Also, scum is often weary (sometimes overeager tough) to vote the scumbuddy. Not very strong argument in this case tough, could be genuine.
Hoopla asks for reasns to unvote.
TAX and votes. Then he is asked why vote, on wich he unvotes. I read this as nervousness on TAX part. Scummy+1
74 by TAX : some wisdom about how not to appear conspicious. Townies tend to not think about that. +1 scumpoints
MMM calls TAX out about the townie masclaim. Tax gets nervous again. This guy is very afraid of gettng lynched.
83 By MaffiaSSk : says never to bandwagon. This is BS!!!! +1 scumpoints
91 by TAX: "ok I did scummy things, but what about the no scummy things I did?" What about them? Scum can do nonscummy things too. Its just that town tends to do less scummy things...
95 by mafiaSSK "bandwagonning is good" ->this seems like the opposite of what you said before... +1 scum
99 TAX: says bandwagonning is bad. It isnt, its a valid strategy. It might be unadvisable in some circumstances, like in LYLO. Bandwagonning is happening all trough day 1, usually. Its just not advisable to put someone on L-1. maybe noob mistake...
Lightwolf thinks that random voting and "real" voting is somehow different, and that scum does OMGUS vote without saying OMGUS. You need some XP buddy.
Lightwolf-over discussion: Lightwolf seems to be irritated by overs vote on him. Over is overdefensive. +1 scum forboth.
139: TAX does an agreepost, +1 scumpoints.
147: by TAX: this is some ridiculous speculation. I dont fing it overly scummy, but I do find it funny
148 by over: good reasoning here, +1 townpoints.
164: I should have answered this question by LightWolf. "I have a question about being cleared, like when Waffles bandwagoned on me and he turns out to be scum, will I be cleared as mafia had no chance to speak privatly with each other so a such strategy is impossible to set up or is it common to vote for your partner to make him look clean?

"
This is actually a very important question that can arise in a lot of games, so its important to know the correct answer, and the answer is a definite "MAYBE".

People(MafiaSSk+hoopla) are slowly getting enouigh of day 1 so they prepare to hammer Waffles
169 by TAX -> distancing from the lynch? Possible...I would not have a scummy feeling about this if it were not for the timing. +1 scumpoints
171 by over -> "TAX plese dont backpedal" +1 scumpoints for both. I read this as the more experienced scum guiding the less experienced scum to go along . +1 SP
179 by idea: "speaking as one who perhaps posts excessively, i guess it's quality rather than quantity which is important " NO. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS TOO mUCH CONTENT. There can be a lot of blaber, but lot of talk enhances the chances of scum slipping.
182 by hoopla: "If a day goes on for dozens and dozens of pages, genuine information relevant to lynches becomes lost in the mess. " DIG IT OUT THEN! Again, there is no such thing as too much content.
idea calls out MMM and gives something to think about: +1 TowniePoints
MMM answers that point by point +1 towniepoints
196 by over: "who casts a vote toward the lynchee is just as guilty of killing them as everyone else, the person hammering them just happened to get there last" NO!!!!!!NOO!!!!!!NOOOOOO!!!! The nonhammerers are not killing the guy. The hammerer does. Also, the circumstances of the hammering are very important. Having said that, the hammerer is usually scum in newbie Day1s when the victim is town.
200 by over: "I also find it a bit strange that you choose my one weak reason out of many strong ones that I should be scum" So are there many strong reasons for you to be scum then?
204 by over: "I'm not even the one being targeted and I can answer that for him " +3 scumpoints for defending TAX instead of TAX. huge scumtell.
208 by over: " I was one of the first to vote for Waffles, was I not?" Irrelevant. "And I was voting for him before he got "bandwagoned", was I not?" Irrelevant. I was not aiming for the actual content, just bad reasoning. Bad reasoning=scummy.
214 by MMM: good reasoning.
215 by over: no you didnt just pushed by voting and saying he is suspicious. You tried to persuade people to lynch him.
218 by hoopla: solid reasoning.
234 Lghtwolf hammers a townie on day 1 in a newbie game. +1 scumpoints.

Noone dies in the night

Hooplas questions:
1) Did you see LightWolf's hammer vote suspicious at all?
-already stated
2) Do you think Waffles was a convenient lynch for the mafia?
-no, and yes. Also, Mafia didnt lynched him on their own. Chances are that both mafia were on his wagon tough.
3) Did you find it suspicious makemeameteor had a vote on nobody at day end?
No
4) Do you think the IC's lack of contribution is intentional?
No
5) Who do you think is scum?
over and TAX

243 by idea: "@VisMaior - is that true? newbie scum usually aren't able to chose a player to night kill? "
No. its either a no kill sent, or a doc protect. While I m reading this, Id put my money on doc protect. Newbie scum is often happy to NK.
245 by LightWolf: "Wait a second! He is an IC, he would be never so dumb to hammer a person who he knows is pro-town if he would be maf!" WIFOM. Also bullshit, of course he would.
249 by TAX: " I'm thinking they did not want to NK someone. They are trying to set someone up. Example TownieA accidentally does something suspicious, TownieB accuses TownieA of being mafia. During the Night TownieB is killed and everyone thinks TownieA is scum. " So much insight! +1 scumpoints.
250 by hoopla: "IF you were mafia, who would you have attempted to kill last night? " Moot question.
251 by LightWolf: NK=NightKill. As opposed to DayKill. Quit with the TownieABCD give your examples real names that have no 6 characters the same at the beginning. Alice, Bob, Clark will do fime.
Also, I cant follow you even after 200+ rereads.
253 by Hoopla: "This is a useless hypothetical dripping with WIFOM. " QFT
254 by LW: "And while yes it's WIFOM, but it will happen we can't avoid it in the end. " WIFOM leads to fear. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to smoothies. Smoothies lead to WIFOM.
258 by LW: "What you say means we accept that we have a doc, and his target is a sure townie? If we don't have any proof for that the scum did indeed target someone at the night, then it could mean that we lose if we are wrong.
" Well, no. We have to be clever. If the doc claims , he still can be a scum hoping for no counterclaim. His target could still be scum, if the scum did a nokill. We have to evaluate these claims in context. When/If they come.
259 by ideas: "a post on another mafia board described mafiascum.net as "slow" " This game is friggin fast. Altough I admit I have taken less than my share from it.



Conclusions: Im 90% sure over and TAX are our mafia.
I propose to lynch one, and if he turns up scum, lymch the other. If he turns up town, and this is very important, still lynch the other too.
Disclaimer: I preserve the right to rethink this and change my mind anytime.

Scummy list:

1. over
2. TAX
3. mmm

Townie vibes:

idea
Lightwolf
hoopla

Have no read:
MaffiaSSK

therefore,

vote _over9000

[VisMaior]

There is reasoning that needs logic, and then there is scumtell, wich is empirical evidence. Meaning scum tends to do it more often than town (based on either experience or on actual statistics). Dont mix up the two.

Also, scumtells are generally not major things. Its like, 60-40 chance each that the suspect is scum. That is not much by itself, but a series of scumtells can be a good indication. over900 claims I have "holes" in my "logic". I didnt deduct anything. I simply collected scumtells.

The PBPA is a good tool. It just takes a lot of time to compile, biut if someone does, its usually worth to read trough.

So, I'm scum for bangwagoning, but it's BS that one shouldn't bangwagon?

No, your scumtell isnt bandwagonning, its hypochrisy.

I can't try and prevent the town from lynching someone I don't think is a suspect?

You can, and sometimes it is advised to even. Day 1 generally isnt. Also, if you do, be prepared that people may find that scummy. Also, if this wasnt a newbie game, this wouldnt be this strong.

But you said yourself there's nothing wrong with bandwagoning.

There is nothing wrong with bandwagoning. Saying "Im town because I bandwagonned" is bad reasoning, and bad reasoning is scumtell.

LightWolf hammered Waffles, who was town. If that's so, why isn't he on your suspicions list? In fact, you said yourself he gave off a "town vibe".

Yes, and he did get a scumpoint for that. I may have to rethink my position on him...

Another point: LightWolf just defended VisMaior, which is exactly what VM accused me for doing to TAX. By his logic, aren't LightWolf and VisMaior now also a potential scumpair?

It is a scumtell, yes. On its own it doesnt mean much tough.

And to make 6 even more clear: Everyone who voted Waffles was more than ready to hammer him. Saying that the hammerer is the most guilty is not right, without the others I could have never hammered him. I'm with you in the: One of the scum did vote for Waffles, _over9000.

Yes, the hammerer is the most guilty. This is empirical evidence again. on day1 in a newbie game the hammerer of a townie is more likely to be scum (again, 60-40 is about right, altough never made an actual calculation). But it appears also logical to me. Th ehammerer HAMMERS, the rest doesnt. They can unvote, and under circumstances count on the votee not getting hammered for a while. It is usual to give the votee a chance do defend himself , claim, or somesuch.

Also, the circumstances count for a lot. If we quicklynch, the hammerer should be in a world of pain. (Here quicklynch means that he had no chance to defend himself, or was hammered despite a good claim, or without discussion about it) OTOH we have to hammer sooner or later, so if there was adequate discussion, then hammering isnt scummy.
Also, chances are that both scum were on the Waffles wagon. Experience tells me this again.

@VM, MafiaSSK - so why have both ICs between them only posted 3 times since p237, the start of D2?

Just because? Altough lot of talk is good, and lack of talk is bad, lurking is rarely a scumtell.

he number of posts per day in D1 of this game was 10.5

Thats excellent! Friggin fast! You guys are really good

[VisMaior]

townie vibe= a feeling that said person is pro-town.

[VisMaior]

so you want a PPA of a person only, read my post by one person only. I dont believe in 1 person PBPA as often that misses mportant context.

Also, could everyone explain why they are not voting either TAX or over? Do you see any flakes in my theory or what?

[VisMaior]

I dont find "Saying that hell reason later" overly scummy. Town does that as well sometimes.

[VisMaior]

I didnt misquote anybody. The stuff between quotation marks arent paraphrasing, they are more my reading on things.

I may have misjudged that sentence, but saying "bandwagonning gets us out of RVS" seems to me to be an argument FOR bandwagonning, instead of against it.

Also:

Idea, I didn't challenge it to see if you noticed it.

Quoted for bullshit.Im pretty much disagreeing with most of MafiaSSKs posts.

FOS: MafiaSSk

[VisMaior]

Why on earth have you counterclaimed then? That makes no sense...

vote over9000

[VisMaior]

Yes it was. He counterclaims he is limiting our choices to you or him. He keeps silent, we lynch SSK and/or you. He wins.

[VisMaior]

would have come clean before MafiaSSK was lynched and told the town what I was trying to do.

You would have probably got lynched for that tough