Newbie 630! Game Over!

[StrangerCoug]

/confirm!

[StrangerCoug]

Vote: Thok

because this is a stickup! Give me all of your exclamation marks now!

Just kidding. I believe there's something that keeps you from voting the mod. So instead:

Vote: caffeinatedcows

You know better than to give cows caffeine. That's why my niece is hyper.

[StrangerCoug]

Are you calling your niece a cow? Really, that's not nice at all.

Vote: StrangerCoug

Meanie pants.

Heh heh heh xD No, I'm saying that you're giving caffeine to cows so that they produce caffeinated milk, which my niece ends up drinking.

Funny post either way, though.

[StrangerCoug]

Unvote: caffeinatedcows
Vote: ashmite84

One random vote is fine, but it is unnecessary to make two, whether somebody's complaining about not being random voted or not.

[StrangerCoug]

Hey I don't like the amount of votes ashmite84 is getting, someone unvote him before things go too far because we really don't want to lynch a random person in the joke vote phase.

I think the joke vote phase ends when a serious vote is made.

[StrangerCoug]

I'm going to

Unvote: ashmite84

as a precaution for right now. Not thinking before acting gets you nowhere, and ashmite84's two random votes are nothing compared to the L-2 vote on him without a reason.

Vote: Ty

[StrangerCoug]

That probably sums it up best, I was just random voting so I voted for the person that voted me.

Doesn't excuse you from looking at the vote count.

[StrangerCoug]

I'm semi-experienced. I have one finished game under my belt and found myself killed in two others still going on, but I don't have the five games needed to officially be an IC. I do have my hands full with games, though.

[StrangerCoug]

I don't even remember signing up for this game, so I'm not really sure if I'm an IC or not.

Had you completed five games (counting games that you're dead in but still in progress as completed) before signing up?

[StrangerCoug]

This is going to sound like one big OMGUS, which it probably kinda is, but at the moment I don't really like the vibes I'm getting off geraintm.

It's not OMGUS unless somebody votes for you and you vote them back, and even then, if you have a legitimate case against the person voting for you, I don't consider it OMGUS.

[StrangerCoug]

That sounds reasonable, Deffie. So far, all he's really said game-wise was this:

ok, i have got an avatar now to make you all happy. hope it is colourful enough for everyone to notice
Ty, you got some 'splainin' to do
Deffie, watching you too, the whole "pointing out scummy behaviour from others" but then not voting or anything...

Which like you point out conflicts with his later statement, and I also am not sure I like the way he's kind of supporting the ty wagon here but very weakly. And then this post:

i fear then i am one of the ICs again and going lead everyone on a very confusing dance.
i am horrible indeciive, take ages to place votes. so to warn you as i got in trouble my last game for this

Which seems like a pre-emptive meta defense, which makes me kind of uneasy anyway.

vote:geraintm

Agreed, but I'm not going to make it a full-fledged vote. It is something to look at, though.

Unvote: Ty
FoS: geraintm

[StrangerCoug]

Un-FoS: geraintm.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt of unfamiliarity. Anything that takes getting used to is worth mentioning to us, though.

[StrangerCoug]

Hmm. Lots of split opinions with no decent wagon.

Agreed xP

Let's see here...

If I had to make a guess as to the scumpair, I'd say Ty and omni. Ty for random voting to L-2, and omni if only because I agree with strife220's post that he left his random vote after most everyone else left the random voting stage. There's not a lot of info at this point, so I could easily be wrong.

[StrangerCoug]

I don't exactly want to vote Deffie because I feel she's being cautious and trying to think, but I don't have any objections to anybody else doing so.

IGMEOY: Deffie

Please be more active in this thread.

[StrangerCoug]

Heh. So she is.

Un-IGMEOY: Deffie

and promote to an official

Vote: Deffie.

THIS IS L-1, so Deffie, claim or die.

[StrangerCoug]

That's L-2. Jumping the gun a little quick there Coug.

Sorry about that. Thought geraintm was Deffie.

[StrangerCoug]

It helps being able to count xD

I don't like her post #107, though, so I'll leave my vote alone until she defends it.

[StrangerCoug]

Well, this is a rather confusing bunch of people we have here. I can't count, keep track of what votes are where, or take into account who's inactive when and why; ashmite84 seems to be on the wishy-washy side and doesn't care about wagons; it took omni some willpower to get rid of his random vote; geraintm is in and of himself confusing and has been accused of a "preemptive meta defense" by Yosarian2; and so on, and so forth.

While it's on my mind, though,

Mod: Please prod caffeinatedcows.

She's made a grand total of four posts in this game (five if you count her confirmation post), and her most recent post was on Tuesday, almost 72 hours ago.

[StrangerCoug]

Very well then.

Mod: Please prod Yosarian2 as well.

[StrangerCoug]

I see myself as very vocal too. I don't understand how talking a lot makes you scum, and I agree with ashmite84 that this is not necessarily the case.

caffeinatedcows, I apologize if you believe I can't think on my own when voting. I don't like repeating stuff (unless it's been awhile since it was last brought up), so if I have nothing new to talk about I generally just reiterate cases, say something along the lines of my agreeing and disagreeing, and vote if I feel it warrants it. I know this is going to look stupid of a semi-experienced player asking this of a newbie, but if you have something that you want my opinion on, let me know.

[StrangerCoug]

SmintyLost23, could you provide an example of geraintm contradicting himself?

[StrangerCoug]

I see. His 12th through 14th posts in the thread pretty much say everything as far as that's concerned. I still like my vote, though, so...

FoS: geraintm

[StrangerCoug]

Yosarian2, as the second quote box says, I thought geraintm was Deffie. I was looking at the vote count posted and added subsequent votes to the wrong person. That's why I thought she was at L-1 instead of L-2 with my vote.

Post #107 is a lame reason to vote for somebody. She admits to bandwagoning and asks if she was a good townie based on her doing so. My saying I didn't like the post is pretty much my answering "no".

[StrangerCoug]

Questions asked so far

(by the way, if a question is asked to the group at large, we should all answer them)

Mod Edit: Fixed a quote tag

1. CC wants to know who is scummiest: geraintm, deffie or omni.

My vote's on Deffie at the moment for the reasons explained in strife220's #94 and voting somebody for the sole purpose of bandwagoning.

2. Deffie wants to know what people think of her case against Omni.

Omni is pretty scummy and hasn't posted much at all. In fact, while I'm still thinking about it,

Mod: Please prod omni

since he or she hasn't posted since June 25. I know he said he's away every Tuesday and Wednesday and it's early Wednesday over in Australia if my FoxClocks extension is right, but he had five other days during which he could have posted and he's posted during none of them.

3. geraintm wants to know if people consider him scummy for still

fos

ing me.

Not if there's a legitimate case on ashmite84.

[StrangerCoug]

Mod: Could you please add the closing quote tag after ashmite84's first quote box and ignore the prod request since you did already? I didn't see your post.

[StrangerCoug]

I don't suspect you because your vote was serious. I suspect you because I think your voting was serious and opportunistic.

Congratulations, you have contradicted yourself in back-to-back sentences, and you won yourself an

FoS: strife220

.

[StrangerCoug]

Being serious is not scummy. Being serious and opportunistic is scummy. I quoted her so that she couldn't use the defense "It wasn't a serious vote, it was just for pressure."



If you still don't get it, let me pick an analogy.
Lurking is not scummy in and of itself. Pro-town players lurk quite frequently due to having limited access, or as part of their play style. If you lurk AND you are active elsewhere, then that IS scummy.

So, X is not scummy, but X when combined with Y is scummy.
The fact that her vote was serious (X) was not scummy in and of itself. The fact that it was serious (X) and opportunistic (Y) IS scummy.

Ah. Makes sense now.

Un-FoS: strife220

[StrangerCoug]

(nods) I could see that. I still think his case on deffie feels scummy to me, although I can't really explain why.

When you can, could you tell me please?

[StrangerCoug]

StrangerCoug hasn't defended himself...

That's because I'm not going to run around in circles if I can help it. I already explained what I thought was my L-1 vote (I mentally added the votes to the wrong person) and I have already said that I don't like repeating things unless perhaps it's been too long since it was last brought up.

[StrangerCoug]

I would Certainly still like to hear Coug's reason why she demanded somebody to claim before they got to defend.

The way you worded this sentence is confusing since I am male and I can't find anywhere where Deffie, a female player you referenced before this point in your post, demanded a claim. I think I can get it straight, though.

Granted, I should have waited for a defense, but nowhere did I imply that Deffie was not allowed to defend and claim at the same time, even though yes, my claim requests are starting to follow the "claim or die" format. Purely hypothetical example of such a post Deffie could have made if she were really at L-1:

I did this because that happened, and when so and so did such and such I thought yadda yadda yadda about it, so I decided to vote this person, and so on and so forth.

Since I'm at L-1, I claim such and such a pro-town role.

Replace all those filler words with something that makes actual sense to you, true or not. As I said, it's a hypothetical post.

[StrangerCoug]

EBWOP: Yosarian2, I believed ashmite84's case on Deffie on her asking for votes since the former said scum usually leave hints in their first posts that they are such.

How many votes am I at, by the way?

[StrangerCoug]

OK, so I'm relatively safe.

Note to self: Watch it with your posts.

Are the only major cases on me asking Deffie to claim thinking I put her at L-1 and not forming my own opinions?

[StrangerCoug]

Huh?

Why would scum intentionally leave hints that they were scum in their first post?

Beats me, to be brutally honest. As I said, I believed ashmite84.

Where, exactally, did Deffie "leave a hint" that she's scum?

Here, if I am to believe ashmite84:

Nobody's joke voting for me?

I feel so unloved.

And why are you following ashmite around here?

He was leaning town at the time, but your vote is making me believe that otherwise is the case with him. In fact,

Unvote: Deffie

and

Vote: ashmite84

at the risk of making this look like a distancing act because I waited for someone to bring it up before suspecting him.

ashmite84, I want to hear your case on Deffie again.

[StrangerCoug]

Sorry. I think the Tiger in your avatar is female (purple coat?), so I may forget you're a he sometimes.

One, that's not a tiger. Take a good look at my username and figure out what should have come after it when I used it the first time (the site this was first used on imposed a 12-character limit to usernames, and the full version is

VERY

rarely seen).

Two, my avatar is a cropped version of this (don't worry, it's safe for work). Does it look like a guy or a girl to you?

Neither point's relevant to the game, though, so moving one.

You seem to be missing the point that people claiming hurts town, unless it's followed up by a lynch. Saying "she could have claimed And defended" is not pro-town play. Claims should only be forced in the situation where a null claim (e.g. vanilla) is followed by a hammer. If you're not willing to follow with a hammer, then the claim only helps scum.[/quote]

So I don't know how to play Day 1. Sue me.

[StrangerCoug]

Mod: Please put a starting quote tag at the beginning of the second to last paragraph. It's still quoting strife220.

[StrangerCoug]

The disclaimer of being a hypothetical post does not nullify the fact that this post is scummy to me. It's like you are a lazy scum saying "Well, you see <enter whatever will appease your suspicions here>, and let's be done with it."

I don't follow. It looks to me like you are connecting the hypothetical post I put up with my playing the newbie card, which doesn't make sense.

I believed ashmite84's case on Deffie on her asking for votes since the former said scum usually leave hints in their first posts that they are such.

How many votes am I at, by the way?

First, I think it's a stretch to call my single comment on Deffie a 'case'. If you look it up, it was just a clutch-at-straws remark I made when there was nothing better on offer, and I acknowledged the flimsyness at the time.

Who's clutching straws, you or Deffie?

Second, the whole tone of this post seems scummy. Don't ask me to clarify, it's just gut.

If at any point you can, then do so.

OK, so I'm relatively safe.

Note to self: Watch it with your posts.

Are the only major cases on me asking Deffie to claim thinking I put her at L-1 and not forming my own opinions?

Again, something about this post doesn't smell right, especially the bold. Like you are trying to hard to appear as transparent as possible in order to act townly. The question at the end attempts to minimize the case on you.

Maybe, but I was double-checking to make sure I have defended everything that has been presented against me.

He was leaning town at the time, but your vote is making me believe that otherwise is the case with him.

In fact,

Unvote: Deffie

and

Vote: ashmite84

at the risk of making this look like a distancing act because I waited for someone to bring it up before suspecting him.

ashmite84, I want to hear your case on Deffie again.

The part I've bolded is you following the crowd again in an attempt to curry favor. You also hve terrible timing as now it just looks like you are flip-flopping the second the slightest pressure comes your way. I wouldn't accuse you of distancing but I would accuse you of the aforementioned.

I ran out of explanations and I couldn't believe I had done something as stupid as take everything you say as seriously as I have. I'm not saying you lied or tried to deceive me; I'm saying that I've taken your comment on Deffie too far.

Again, I never had a 'case' on Deffie. I had one single thought, which was that saying 'no-one's random voting me, I feel so unloved' struck me as odd. Like I've said, Guide to Scumhunting states that scum sometimes hide something like this in an early post. It's not a breadcrumb - they want you to realize

after

the game, not during it. I didn't write this guide, just read it. I don't know if it's true, I only know it happened in my last newbie game. Again, I can provide a link to this game if anyone wants it.

Then I don't understand why you brought it up during the game, and I feel misled here. Explain, and give the link if you feel it necessary.

So I don't know how to play Day 1. Sue me.

This might be the case, and if you are lynched and flip town I will be sorry, but this sounds like you have accepted your fate.

I hope so, because I am the doctor. I know I've outed myself Day 1 and I've made my powers essentially useless now, but if you want to kill your chances of being saved by the Mafia, however slim they may be anymore thanks to this post, go straight ahead.

[StrangerCoug]

cougar - why did you claim? i looked and couldn't see anyone calling for a claim.

I will generally claim at L-1 unless I claimed already. "Claim or die" applies to me as well.

[StrangerCoug]

Unvote: ashmite84

for right now. I don't have anything new that hasn't been said yet.

[StrangerCoug]

SC: Can you explain what has changed since your vote on Ashmite to make you unvote him?

Nothing in particular besides my wanting to keep my options open.

[StrangerCoug]

I am at a loss somewhat. Part of me thinks that we should just lynch SC anyway, because of the following:

If he's scum - yay!

If he's the Doc (scenario 1) - scum might target him N1 anyway.

If he's the Doc (scenario 2) - scum might

not

target him in order to cast suspicion on him, slowing down future days in WIFOM and misplaced suspicion.

Even if you think I am scum, it has already been argued that lynching claimed doc Day 1 if there is no counterclaim is too risky.

I would say if anyone is sitting on the doc role and knows SC to be lying to claim now, you would most likely be killed but because of all my above reasons I don't know what else to do.

Is it just me, or are you trying to create WIFOM?

Vote: ashmite84

again.

[StrangerCoug]

Is your vote on me OMGUS? Or can you not see a townie using my logic?

strife220 already said this, but your logic is pretty flawed. First off, even if I turn out to be scum, what benefit is gained in lynching me today?

Second, there are pretty specific reasons given as to why the real doc, if it doesn't happen to be me, should not counter my claim just yet. We have enough things to sort out Day 1, and we don't need WIFOM (asking for a counterclaim today) added to it. WIFOM may be the wrong term, but it's the best thing I can think of right now.

If my thinking's straight, if I get counterclaimed D1 and the real doc gets lynched, then we have confirmed scum, but at the expense of two townies. If I get counterclaimed D1 and the one of us that's really scum gets lynched, then chances are we lose the real doc N1 anyway, which is a certainty if we kill the roleblocker. Which is why a D1 counterclaim is just as wrong if not worse than lynching the claimed doc D1 in the absence of a counterclaim.

I'm pretty sure there's more to it than this, but I think I've thought it out to the point where I can say this much.

[StrangerCoug]

even if I turn out to be scum, what benefit is gained in lynching me today?

Don't just stand there bug-eyed! Give me an answer!

And note that I said "if". Meaning it implies that I either really am the doc or fakeclaimed, and we already know I did one of those two things.

[StrangerCoug]

Okay, I'll bite.... If you turn out to be scum, the benefit to be gained in lynching you today is one less scum.

And how about the benefit of lynching me if I really am the doc? I'm trying to go both sides of the coin here concerning myself.

I've already said I'm no longer thinking to lynch you, this comment just seemed really weird.

You still said you wanted me lynched anyway, and it's not something that's going to be dropped anytime soon. We're not likely to drop my putting Deffie at what I thought was L-1 based on your thinking, so as much as you and I try to retract and defend what we've done, what makes you think a different situation applies to you and me at this point besides my claim?

[StrangerCoug]

EBWOP:

what makes you think

different situations apply

to you and me at this point besides my claim?

Fixed.

[StrangerCoug]

I am the doc

-ile townie.

Stop teasing me. Now it's hard to tell whether you're really counterclaiming or not.

[StrangerCoug]

Sorry.

Not

CC'ing.

All right, I take your word for it. I remain uncounterclaimed then. Be

very

careful with that next time, OK?

Now that that's out of the way, let's go back to #254 again:

I didn't say I wanted you lynched, I said I partly did because of all the reasons I stated.

This is contradictory. Care to explain?

[StrangerCoug]

I'm confused... StrangerCoug, for somebody who's claiming doc, you seem awfully expectant of getting counter-claimed.

No, I've been presenting cases about if there is a counterclaim against me and trying to get an unambiguous claim out of ashmite84 (does he say he's town or doc?). Just because I claimed doc does not mean I can withdraw from discussion, so since discussion is primarily on my claim I'm talking about that.

[StrangerCoug]

Cougar - my god, you don't half make things difficult. what the heck is all this if i am not doc stuff, and even if i am scum, why shouldpeople vote me.
are you trying to confuse me? i as quiet happy to keep on today with my assumption you were the doc. no one else so far has said they are teh doc, so i was going to keep at it till proved otehrwise. and then you start just behaving like this....

I'm trying to explain, not confuse. Most of the doc discussion has been directed at ashmite84 since he was tempted to have me lynched anyway.

I feel that you are taking this out of control. "Even if I am scum" implies that I may or may not be scum, and I'm trying to make ashmite84 see both sides of the coin. I may be supposed to be on only one side of that coin, but I know what's there when you flip it.

strife220, I already refuted a counterclaim expectation and said I'm explaining what the scenario will be if I get one. I feel I'm prepared to deal with one, but I'm not trying to get anybody to do so.

TL;DR version: If I am confusing you, then that means you guys (especially ashmite84) and I are confusing each other. I'm trying to sort this out the best I can.

[StrangerCoug]

So let me reiterate my question. Why would the real doc need to be 'prepared' for a counter-claim?

First off, just because the real doc claimed first doesn't mean there'll be a counterclaim. Scum may counterclaim the real doc to create WIFOM, and I would have to present my case on myself in an attempt to prove the counterclaim false. It is wrong to assume that just because someone was counterclaimed means he or she is scum.

I can't simply withdraw from the conversation in case of a counterclaim, because then I'd be an easy lynch target. Obviously, if I am the real doc I will know that the counterclaimant is scum and vice versa, but sitting there does nothing good.

Imagine being a juror in a courtroom and you'll get my gist.

[StrangerCoug]

SC, you still seem to miss my point. Scum giving themself up just to lynch a doctor that they could easily NK is not something I've ever heard of. If you're the real doctor, the chances of you getting counter-claimed are near zero.

Not impossible Remember, I'm just giving explanations about both of my possibilities.

[StrangerCoug]

I feel that you are taking this out of control. "Even if I am scum" implies that I may or may not be scum, and I'm trying to make ashmite84 see both sides of the coin. I may be supposed to be on only one side of that coin, but I know what's there when you flip it.

No, that dosn't make any sense. You said "why would you want to lynch me even if I'm scum". Obveously if you're scum, we DO want to lynch you. If you're the doctor, then we obviously don't. People certanly have the right to try and figure out which one is the case here, sc...

Then explain post #240:

If SC is scum and they pull the move you stated, then we will know that does not make SC 'confirmed,' but I admit this would be a very awkward scenario to work around. Still, that's a 'deal with it as it comes' thing - lynching SC today is wrong.


I also disagree with a real doc outing themselves today. If SC fake-claimed, there's no reason he Has to be lynched today. He still has a partner which we may be able to lynch, and the real doc will be able to make a protection tonight.

[StrangerCoug]

Um...you want me to explain Strife's post? Or is this a "Strife said you shouldn't lynch me so you can't" defense?

The former.

Let me put it this way. Normally, if you think there's a 50/50 chance someone is scum, they are a good day 1 lynch; it's a lot better then random, and about the best the town is likely to do day 1. However, if there's a 50% chance they're scum and a 50% chance they're the doc, then they're a bad risk. That's why I unvoted you.

However, if you think there's a 75% chance they're scum and a 25% chance they're doc, or something like that, then it's probably worth taking the risk and lynching them anyway.

In other words, yes, your doc claim gives the town some incentive to not lynch you today, but if you keep acting scummy there comes a point where it's worth lynching you anyway. And even if we're not quite at that point, it's still worthwhile for people to keep trying to get a read on you, so we have more information to go on in case we have to decide if you're town or scum later in the game.

Very well then, I understand.

Sheesh, I feel like I've been in a catch-22 situation since the roleclaim. Withdrawing from the situation can come off as scummy, talking about your claim and trying to explain and add on to everyone's rationale about it can come off as scummy, and the doc claim is the only thing anybody seems to be talking about. Something is wrong with this picture.

[StrangerCoug]

I still want to go after ashmite84 for being misleading to me earlier.

[StrangerCoug]

You think he was delibratly misleading you, StrangerCoug? Why do you think that?

Remember when he mentioned that scum sometimes leaves hints in their first post and he brought Deffie up, and I blindly followed suit with him and got wagoned for it?

[StrangerCoug]

I don't completely understand it either. Pretty much a "What the hell am I doing?" kind of mindset, but that's all I'm able to spit out.

[StrangerCoug]

Everybody, I know it's a little early to ask this, but if you had to make a guess as to the scum pair right now, who would you pick and why?

I've already stated that I felt ashmite84 was misleading me, but I'd have to reread the thread to make a guess as to his buddy. Most likely

NOT

Deffie unless he was attempting to bus her, though.

(In case anybody asks, bussing is when a Mafia member lynches another Mafia member.)

[StrangerCoug]

geraintm's more recent posts seem off to me with the percentages bit, so I'll make him my guess as to ashmite84's scumbuddy. I'm probably wrong, though.

And in my avoiding talking about my claim at the risk of coming off as scummy, I managed to forget about ashmite84's temptation to lynch an uncounterclaimed power role. Let's add that factor in.

[StrangerCoug]

Forget the scum pair question since a number of people object to it. It was brought up Day 1 in another game I was in.

[StrangerCoug]

Of course this assumes that SC is legit, which I'm doubting more by the second, though not necessarily that he's scum, maybe just a 'nilla townie.

SC just sounded so fake after his claim that I was was playing a game of cat and mouse with him.

The only time I can think of where you will see a vanilla townie fakeclaim is if he or she is an idiot. I could be wrong once you bring theme games into the picture, but I'm going with standard Mafia games here to prevent confusing other players.

[StrangerCoug]

Vote:Ashmite

anything on this matter i would say has been said.

You replaced into a game with a player that needs at a minimum reference points to the reasons for a vote in the post.

[StrangerCoug]

Happy birthday, ashmite84.

And while you're on the topic of never having been lynched on this site, as for kills, with one exception I've

ONLY

been lynched (I got endgamed in Mini 591). I have my first NK to look forward to xD

[StrangerCoug]

Oh come the heck on. What's taking everybody forever?

[StrangerCoug]

And that would be lynch minus zero if I'm not mistaken. Better known as the hammer.

[StrangerCoug]

I protected Yosarian2 last night, by the way. I figured they'd target an IC, but not this time.

I probably got roleblocked anyway.

[StrangerCoug]

Why isn't he dead? Did the scum let him live to make him appear suspicious? Are they just going to roleblock him in the future? Or is he really scum pretending to be a doctor?

I don't have much of a reason to see why the scum would keep me alive if they did not have a roleblocker given the circumstances. Meaning there should be a cop and a roleblocker somewhere, and I'm worried about getting rid of the roleblocker at this moment. But then again, if the roleblocker dies, then it's most likely certain death for me, and I should consider myself stripped of my power.

If I were the cop, this would be a different story. We could kill the roleblocker, the doc would protect me, and I would be able to use my power the following night. But I'm not the cop, I was driven to claim doc Day 1, and I am not allowed to protect myself, and now we have this.

[StrangerCoug]

Yes, a roleblocker in a newbie game. Remember, these breakdowns are equally likely:

A. 1 Mafia goon, 1 Mafia roleblocker, 1 cop, 1 doctor, 5 vanilla townies
B. 2 Mafia goons, 1 cop, 6 vanilla townies
C. 2 Mafia goons, 1 doctor, 6 vanilla townies
D. 1 Mafia goon, 1 Mafia roleblocker, 7 vanilla townies

If my claim is truthful, then B and D are impossible and C is unlikely in this scenario. We probably have A.

[StrangerCoug]

So I lettered them a little differently, but yeah, strife220 has it covered.

Deffie never unvoted me Day 1 even though I claimed doc and didn't get counterclaimed, so I'll

vote: Deffie

unless she gives me a believable explanation. This is my first D2 suspect, and this is subject to change depending on what else comes up.

[StrangerCoug]

Where is everybody?

[StrangerCoug]

On second thought, it's really surprising that they offed omni, who wasn't a very aggressive player - he would've been easy to cast false suspicion on and manipulate others into lynching him. Perhaps they killed him because he was such an unexpected target and therefore not likely to be protected?

That actually makes sense, and I did not protect omni. As I said, I protected Yosarian2 because I thought scum would target an IC—something that happens a lot in newbie games. They did not target the IC's, and they did not target me.

I love the spin on this game xD

[StrangerCoug]

Vote: StrangerCoug

. If somebody can convince me that scum would have the guts to leave a claimed doc alive when they don't have a RBer, I'll consider unvoting. I just really think that's unlikely.

If you suspect me, then why are you assuming a roleblocker exists anyway?

[StrangerCoug]

I actually misunderstood your question. My apologies.

[StrangerCoug]

And yeah, now that I look at the whole omni thing there was a bit of a hole in my speculation. If the scum targeted omni because he seemed like an unlikely candidate to be protected by the doctor, they probably don't have a roleblocker - and if they don't have a roleblocker, wouldn't it be much more effective to get rid of the doctor, now that his identity is out in the open?

Something about this screams WIFOM, but it's gut and I can't explain why I think so, nor can I exactly pinpoint if Deffie is necessarily guilty of WIFOM by this post.

[StrangerCoug]

Unvote: Deffie
Vote: geraintm

for being impatient. If you think the game isn't going anywhere, say something you think is relevant. Don't just sit there, say who you think is scummy, and pick one. Why do you genuinely believe Yosarian2 is scummier than fyzxs?

[StrangerCoug]

I'm not gonna try to argue what move is optimal. I'm saying, that with a doc and no RB, that leaving the doc alive isn't really that risky if you NK and unlikely protection. Even if you do random you'll have X% of hitting the same person as protected. X being living - doc - mafia. The fact the mafia DID kill can lend truth to his claim because, if the mafia claimed, why not hold off on the NK to make your claim seem 'more true'? the "omg lucky block, see me = doc" kinda strat. That will get into a WIFOM, but the idea is there

I actually didn't give one thought about protecting omni. My thought process Night 1 went something like "OK, I'm not likely to live tonight, but I know that in newbie games the ICs are common N1 targets too, so I might as well die in Yosarian2's place." We both lived. I still think I got roleblocked, but as if it matters.

[StrangerCoug]

Yeah, I'm not buying any of this.

vote:geraintm

By the way, everyone, I believe that puts him at lynch -1.

Yep. I counted, I made sure I was mentally adding them to the right person, and I got that as well.

geraintm, claim or die.

[StrangerCoug]

Those who are voting Ger - what do you think about my partner evaluation? Do you think I'm wrong to rule out the pairings I did (feel free to evaluate Ger-me)? Do you think one pairing stands out above the others? Or do you not believe looking for pairs is the thing to do in this situation.

geraintm/fyzxs and geraintm/Yosarian2 I don't see (nor do I see geraintm/you), but that's just my opinion. geraintm/fisherofmen is plausible, but a bit stretchy geraintm/Deffie and geraintm/StrangerCoug make the most sense to me, but I know what I am, so that can leave only one opinion that I have of geraintm's scum partner

[StrangerCoug]

EBWOP: Add a period after "stretchy" in that post.

[StrangerCoug]

fyzxs, you said that if geraintm is scum, then Yosarian2 is most likely his scumbuddy, but then you said the only reason you suspect the latter is for bandwagoning me. Explain.

[StrangerCoug]

OK - Having said that G/Y is my highest. This is based on how I feel about things. I haven't gone back and looked for connections/patterns at all.

Am I just missing it, or have you not presented a case against yos? You are now saying he's your FOS, when... I don't see it.
The only thing I see about him is the bandwagon on SC, which, as stated, I don't agree with.

There. Feel free to clarify anything you think I misunderstand.

[StrangerCoug]

Oh. I'm sorry.

[StrangerCoug]

Mod: I am having technical difficulties with my Internet connection right now, and I'm posting from the library. I'm not going to call myself V/LA just yet, but if I take too long between posts, go ahead and replace me outright.

[StrangerCoug]

Mod: The technical difficulties mentioned in post #447 have been resolved. Thanks.

[StrangerCoug]

Care to explain when you get back on?

[StrangerCoug]

choosing yos over fyxks - there really wasnt much to choose between the two, and at the time was probably more of a coin flip than anything, at this stage i cant really remember why i went one way and not the other.

Why does there seem to be something that's not right with this paragraph?

[StrangerCoug]

drake, there shouldnt be any difference between placing a first vote and last vote, if you think someone is scum then yu vote for them. admitting you want to avoid being the hammer just makes you look bad

What is this, a semantics argument?

and jumping off deffie cause you dont think you can get anyone else to join you...

There isn't really a good case against Deffie right now, hence probably why he unvoted.

[StrangerCoug]

No, I was asking because you were saying you "wouldn't vote for her until she started posting", which sounds like you're actually trying to prevent her from posting.

How so?

[StrangerCoug]

there was no counter claim at the time. i felt that was a good enough excuse at the time to go with the idea that cougar was the doc
does no one else beleive he is the doc then, am i the only one? if that is the case, why arent you all voting for him??

I'm not sure I understand this. What I get from everyone else is not per se that they are doubting me; what I get is that, while I have made some scummy moves, there are more suspicious people out there, you one of them. You cannot go black and white with power roles unless there is a counterclaim, and even then you really shouldn't.

I believe I brought up an example in game regarding a hypothetical court case, so I will do so again: Think of a jury. A jury, when they hear a case about a suspect, think long and hard based on evidence whether or not the person is innocent or guilty. Yes, some things a suspect says may leave him black marks, but he or she is still innocent until that jury proves beyond a reasonable doubt that the suspect is guilty. The only difference is majority rule rather than it being a unanimous decision.

[StrangerCoug]

Drake: Still like clarity on your view on Deffie here.

I still think she could be Mafia but im not going to open this case up again until she starts talking again.

so you are encouraging them to stay silent, as by staying silent they can slip under your radar? you never even heard of lynch all lurkers? is the reason you are suspcious of me and that your "gut" is saying i am scum because i am posting??

well 1st of no i haven't heard of lynch all lurkers, newbie remember

Wait a minute—geraintm said "lynch all lurkers"? I thought it was "lynch all liars". I don't want to advocate policy lynches, but lynching liars is good. Lynching lurkers is bad.

Confirm vote: geraintm

[StrangerCoug]

you actually think not lynching lurkers is a good thing? so letting players not talk, just place votes and carry on without contributing at all to the game is a good thing?

You've forgotten two things that the mod can do: he can prod lurkers to get them to speak or he can replace lurkers with people that will speak. You're proposing that the lurkers might as well not talk at all since they're so damn scummy with their lurking anyway.

You also really want to avoid policy lynches if you can help it.

[StrangerCoug]

shoudlnt have to rely on a mod to get people involved in a game. and even they respond to a prod and go "I'm nere, nothing much to say vote cougar" is that enough involvement for them to be ok?
lurkers are bad, bad for town and people who think they can say nothing in a game should be forced out

True, but assuming everybody makes about the same number of posts each game day, the fewer people we have in a game, the less conversation we get. You're willing to throw in the towel playing the waiting game in favor of hurting the town in the long run instead of the short run.

[StrangerCoug]

i have no idea where you are going with this thoughts. you confirmed voted me because i said lynch all lurkers, and now you are on about assuming everyone makes the same number of posts. i have no idea what yourlogic is? i have a huge puzzled expression on my face?

That's not what I meant. My assumption for the purpose of the LALurkers argument is that people won't make a truckload of comments Day 1 and then post very little thereon. I don't want to say you are encouraging lurking, but you do seem to want to provide a permanent solution to a temporary problem. Lurkers will be replaced if they keep it up. That's why prods exist.

[StrangerCoug]

i am confused about the discussion between geraintm and cougar too...
what critiscim of drake??

How are you confused of our own discussion!?

[StrangerCoug]

if there is a deadline imposed, then i am going to get lynched as i am the onyl one on 3
so

vote strangercoug

as a way of doing something

i am expecting stick for this post

Well, guess what? You are. Voting me solely to try to save yourself at deadline? Pretty OMGUSy if you ask me.

[StrangerCoug]

Ger vote on SC is... weird, since his prior vote was based on the assumption that SC was town.

This is something I need to look at. I hate how geraintm, a vanilla townie at L-1, is trying to save himself from lynch by putting me, a claimed doctor, at L-1 also, and not because he's voting me. IT'S VERY WEAK AND UNJUSTIFIED. In fact,

confirm vote: geraintm.

[StrangerCoug]

EBWOP: I already confirmed my vote xD

[StrangerCoug]

If it's tied, it's a No Lynch. Otherwise, it's a reduced majority. Which means I should leave my vote on geraintm if I want to live.

I do not see the benefit of No Lynch here.

[StrangerCoug]

I think a no-lynch followed by a scum kill would be worse.

How so?

[StrangerCoug]

I sure hope Nytmare can provide some fresh insight to this slow game. geraintm and I are at the brink of death and his vote on me makes less sense than the other way around.

[StrangerCoug]

Oh boy. I don't know whether to breathe a sigh of relief or to remain bundled up in fear. I understand that this is your first day, but next time post evidence for your vote. This is the

ONLY

time I'll let you slide for it without suspicion from me.

[StrangerCoug]

OK, nobody place a vote yet. I'll post a PBPA (post-by-post analysis, by the way) of everybody when I get home, I'll look at the thread before and after class, but that's not a lot of time to look at the thread.

It would be nice if Nytmare told me why he voted geraintm.

[StrangerCoug]

OK, that's taken care of.

Can anybody look at fyzxs's play Day 2 and see if there's any hint of who he investigated and his result? That would help lots.

[StrangerCoug]

OK, here's the promised PBPA of everybody.

Deffie

• #6:
  Confirmation post.
• #11:
  Comment about the mod's #10 reminding people that this isn't an RPG and to not overuse exclamation marks.
• #17:
  Random vote on Yosarian2.
• #24:
  Feels unloved about nobody joke-voting her.
• #27:
  Jokes about Thok's avatar.
• #33:
  Says that avatars help you stand out from the crowd and that people without them are scummy.
• #34:
  Objects to the number of votes on ashmite84 and asks somebody to unvote him.
• #42:
  Says she hasn't pointed out any scummy behavior from anybody yet. Clarifies that the avatar bit was a joke. Does not join the bandwagon on Ty for not wanting to rush a lynch. Unvotes Yosarian2.
• #44:
  Explains L-2.
• #53:
  Says that this is technically her second game and she is not an IC.
• #67:
  Doesn't like the vibes coming from geraintm and says that he accused her of pointing out scummy behavior but not voting, the former of which she denies.
• #74:
  Does not believe that being slow at voting is bad as long as one is actively contributing.
• #106:
  Addresses strife220's case on her. Defends #33 and #34 as the people on ashmite84's wagon simply being careless newbies and her warning about it being sufficient, #42 by accusing strife220 of underestimating the power of bandwagons in small games, and #74 as a null tell.
• #107:
  Votes ashmite84 to appease him.
• #109:
  I read this as a defense of #107 as this being a democracy, but I can also see it as a joke.
• #117:
  Her real defense on #107, as her being fed up with complaints about her not voting. Unvotes ashmite84 and votes omni out of gut given he's not contributing much.
• #144:
  Asks the mod to prod omni.
• #153:
  Explains her vote on ashmite84.
• #180:
  Unvotes omni and votes me for telling her to claim or die at L-2 thinking I put her at L-1. Says that even if it indeed were L-1, I should have allowed her to defend herself before I did so.
• #183:
  Says that omni said nothing about being away in thread except for being unavailable on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.
• #197:
  Continues to defend her vote on ashmite84 and said she was not attempting to lynch him. Confirms that the only major cases on me were the "claim or die" mistake and not forming my own opinions.
• #228:
  Doubts my doc claim, but follows suit with unvoting me anyway. Goes after omni's lack of contributions.
• #234:
  Said that I should have tried to defend myself better, but that I was cornered and essentially had no choice but to claim anyway.
• #264:
  Votes me for worrying about a counterclaim.
• #323:
  Posts to say that "a lot of stuff has been going down the past week".
• #358:
  Fails to understand how ashmite84's reaction is scummy.
• #370:
  Emotional post about ashmite84's lynch. Asks why I'm not dead.
• #382:
  Explains her voting me despite my claim. Says that she had no better ideas for scum and suspected me more than ashmite84. Says that it's a better idea for the mafia to kill the doctor the first chance they get.
• #383:
  Is surprised about omni getting nightkilled.
• #388:
  Forgot about the possibility of a roleblocker.
• #403:
  Reiterates her not believing my claim. Reasons that if the mafia killed an unlikely candidate for the doctor protection, then they don't have a roleblocker. Votes me.
• #451:
  Is at a loss for words.
• #496:
  Says that she was caught up with school starting and says she'd catch up with the game.
• #497:
  Doesn't follow the case on geraintm and asks for someone to clarify. Says that drake_259 and fisherofmen combined (they're the same role) are scummy, the former for rushing to vote her for weak reasons.
• #538:
  School again. Promises to catch up again later that day.

I still don't like Deffie, but she still has a lot to explain. Her Day 2 logic doesn't make the most sense. Also, post #538 was made at the very end of September 3 (MDT). It's two weeks minus a day later and we haven't heard from her since.

Mod: Please prod Deffie.

caffeinatedcows/fisherofmen/drake_259/Nytmare

• #9:
  caffeinatedcows's confirmation post.
  
• #16:
  Votes me for calling my niece a cow.
  
• #31:
  Unvotes me and votes strife220 for voting geraintm for not having an avatar
  
• #71:
  Allows her vote on strife220 to stand for calling out omni's random vote while ignoring hers.
  
• #81:
  Questions why geraintm is still voting her.
  
• #122:
  Suspects me for being innocuous. Says the problem is not my being cautious but the content of my votes. Likens my actions to a character from Leave It to Beaver.
  
• #123:
  EBWOP for typo.
  
• #130:
  Defends her not voting or FoS'ing me by saying that everyone should have a chance to defend him- or herself and that she is suspicious of me, but not enough to warrant a vote. FoS's ashmite84 for #124.
  
• #143:
  Starts agreeing with wagons because it's taking too long for a decent case to happen. Still suspects strife220, but unvotes him anyway because she is beginning to agree with him.
  
• #172:
  Agrees with strife220's logic on SmintyLost23.
  
• #202:
  Notices that people have added onto her case on me and wants me to defend. Accuses me of "skirting around" and almost refusing to defend myself. Asks where to register a V/LA notice.
  
• #202:
  Requests replacement.
  
• #318:
  Gets replaced by fisherofmen.
  
• #454:
  Gets replaced by drake_259.
  
• #550:
  Gets replaced by Nytmare.

[StrangerCoug]

Whoops—wrong button There's part of it, though.

[StrangerCoug]

Here's the caffeinatedcows/fisherofmen/drake_259/Nytmare PBPA as it should have been formatted. I'd do the other two players, but my eyes hurt from staring at the screen too long.

• #9:
  caffeinatedcows's confirmation post.
• #16:
  Votes me for calling my niece a cow.
• #31:
  Unvotes me and votes strife220 for voting geraintm for not having an avatar.
• #71:
  Allows her vote on strife220 to stand for calling out omni's random vote while ignoring hers.
• #81:
  Questions why geraintm is still voting her.
• #122:
  Suspects me for being innocuous. Says the problem is not my being cautious but the content of my votes. Likens my actions to a character from Leave It to Beaver.
• #123:
  EBWOP for typo.
• #130:
  Defends her not voting or FoS'ing me by saying that everyone should have a chance to defend him- or herself and that she is suspicious of me, but not enough to warrant a vote. FoS's ashmite84 for #124.
• #143:
  Starts agreeing with wagons because it's taking too long for a decent case to happen. Still suspects strife220, but unvotes him anyway because she is beginning to agree with him.
• #172:
  Agrees with strife220's logic on SmintyLost23.
• #202:
  Notices that people have added onto her case on me and wants me to defend. Accuses me of "skirting around" and almost refusing to defend myself. Asks where to register a V/LA notice.
• #202:
  Requests replacement.
• #318:
  Gets replaced by fisherofmen.
• #320:
  Has to sleep.
• #337:
  Votes ashmite84 for reasons already stated.
• #340:
  Says that said reasons are in #333—ashmite84's posts after my claim are hard to read from a town perspective.
• #381:
  Got back from an unexpected trip out of town. Says he'll reread and post again.
• #422:
  Requests replacement.
• #454:
  Gets replaced by drake_259.
• #455:
  Believes that Deffie or I, but not both of us, are scum.Has a scum read on geraintm as well.
• #458:
  Attacks Deffie for #370. Still suspects me, but out of gut.
• #459:
  Repost of #458.
• #460:
  Ditto.
• #461:
  Apologizes for the triple post.
• #465:
  Asks the Mafia to step forward so that they don't get killed.
• #467:
  Votes Deffie.
• #470:
  Defends #458.
• #476:
  More defense, this time of #467.
• #481:
  Explains #481 and unvotes Deffie.
• #486:
  Says he's been popping through previous posts to determine scum.
• #491:
  Still suspects Deffie, but opts not to reopen the case until she posts again. Says the case wasn't that great anyway. Refutes geraintm's saying that he's afraid to hammer.
• #494:
  Does not want Deffie replaced as replacing people kills interrogations.
• #495:
  Clarifies #494.
• #503:
  Defends geraintm's accusing him of preventing Deffie from posting by saying that people would suspect her or that she would get replaced.
• #509:
  Is not weary of me as much. Feels that geraintm is scum.
• #515:
  Says that he has never heard of Lynch All Lurkers. Says we may be going the wrong way about geraintm and have to consider the quiet people.
• #550:
  Gets replaced by Nytmare.
• #552:
  Confirms replacement.
• #553:
  Votes geraintm.
• #559:
  Explains that he suspected geraintm for his posts on page 22.

The reread makes me lean town on caffeinated cows but slight scum on drake_259. I allowed Nytmare's quick vote to slide as it was a newbie mistake and he didn't have enough time to explain, but this will only happen once.

SC, who did you protect last night?

I protected Nytmare.

[StrangerCoug]

Remember that I gave him the benefit of the doubt and I will place suspicion on him if he makes a quick vote without an explanation again,

ESPECIALLY AT THIS STAGE OF THE GAME.

I protected Nytmare simply to allow him more time to voice his opinions abut everybody. I also couldn't get a hammer reason out of him if he were dead. I probably had better targets, but I basically wanted more information out of him.

[StrangerCoug]

I didn't tell anyone to rule you out as scum. As I said, I have a slight scum read on one of your predecessors. I didn't protect the newbie on a whim—I kept you around to get information out of you. You can't ask for information from the dead. I needed the reasoning for geraintm's hammer, which you and only you had.

I still suspect Deffie a lot. I am not, however, voting a lurker at this stage of the game as it is too easy to lose that way. That's why I want her here and explaining her actions before I vote her.

[StrangerCoug]

Taking this a step further, the last vote was pretty much dead even before I came in. That means that, to be safe, if you WERE mafia, your compatriot would have been sticking by your side so as not to run the risk of losing one of you. With fyzxs dead, that would leave Yosarian2 as your accomplice, but I'm not sure if that feels right to me.

Granted, if I protected scum, then it's sort of wasted, but I believe that protecting someone solely to get information from that person is OK regardless of the alignment of whom you are protecting. Feel free to argue this, though.

Why Yosarian2?

The flop side of that however, if you really

are

the doc, and with geraintm as a townie, the mafia were safe, and could have easily split their votes to protect themselves from appearing to be too friendly. Strife and Yosarian? That feels like an even worse pairing to me than Strange and Yosarian. Strife and Deffie?

The read I'm getting off this is that, if I'm not scum, then strife220 is. Explain your case on strife220 please.

Is Deffie just playing at being inactive? Of the five remaining players, only one of us hasn't been posting, and the kill went through within 3 days. If Deffie doesn't respond and gets replaced, it's a good bet that she isn't mafia. Has anyone looked at her past games, does she have a tendency to abandon or take little vacations?

Her last post on the site was #538, and this appears to be her only current game.

[StrangerCoug]

Granted, if I protected scum, then it's sort of wasted, but I believe that protecting someone solely to get information from that person is OK regardless of the alignment of whom you are protecting. Feel free to argue this, though.

If you

are

the doc, then what you did is fine. If you are

pretending

to be the doc, and you were trying to singlehandedly goodcop/badcop me into siding with you, then you're either mafia, or for some reason more worried about staying alive than rooting out the mafia.

I was in no way whatsoever attempting to get you to side with me. Disagreements help with scumhunting.

Although I have to admit, if you are the doc, protecting someone who was a very unlikely Mafia kill, so that they could give you a 5 sentence synopsis of 3 months and 22 pages worth of a forum seems like a really risky venture.

Why didn't you protect fyzxs or Yosarian instead?

Keep in mind that I didn't know fyzxs was the cop. Also keep in mind that, if I am what I say I am, then a roleblocker exists and it wouldn't matter who I protected since I've claimed. I did have reason to believe he was town, but nothing stood out as NK bait to me.

I don't exactly have a town read on Yosarian.

Remember that I gave him the benefit of the doubt and I will place suspicion on him if he makes a quick vote without an explanation again,

ESPECIALLY AT THIS STAGE OF THE GAME.

I protected Nytmare simply to allow him more time to voice his opinions abut everybody. I also couldn't get a hammer reason out of him if he were dead. I probably had better targets, but I basically wanted more information out of him.

That only makes sense if you thought Nytmare was likely to be killed by the scum. Did you?

Yes. Scum killing Nytmare would have been denying the rest of us information, which is the former's job. I also don't want him quicklynched regardless of it being lynch or lose.

[StrangerCoug]

Yes. Scum killing Nytmare would have been denying the rest of us information, which is the former's job. I also don't want him quicklynched regardless of it being lynch or lose.

How does scum killing nytmare deny any of us information, any more then, say, scum killing anyone else?

Nobody else came off to me as not yet having presented any information useful to the town, but keep in mind that nobody came off to me as the cop despite my certainty that one existed. Nytmare didn't give reasoning for his vote before night fell. I thought that scum might think ahead and figure that someone would ask, so would therefore off him to prevent that information from getting out. I also see how that might be used against him, however, but I don't want him set up to fall.

Reasoning gets us cases. I needed reasoning from Nytmare. The less reasoning town is able to get, the better off scum are. Connect the dots.

[StrangerCoug]

Um....he hammered a townie. If he were nightkilled, and both he and the townie were dead the next day, then why would anyone care all that much why he did it?

If this weren't a newbie game and a vigilante had killed Nytmare-scum, then I honestly wouldn't know. If I protected him for informational purposes, then obviously I care, and that's the point I've been pushing all day.

How does that information help the town or hurt the scum at all?

Town gets a chance to look at if the reasoning for voting geraintm was valid.

If anything, considering his speed no-logic hammer and the fact that that was all he'd done so far, I'd basically think that Nytmare was basically the LEAST likely person to get nightkilled last night, and that's why I'm confused about why you would have protected him.

I didn't have any better ideas for a protection vote, and for at least the third time, I didn't have an idea who the cop was.

I'm done running around in circles, so unless I missed something important, tell me something new.

[StrangerCoug]

I'd say it's taking about 10% to 15% longer than it should, but that's me attempting a guess and I could be wrong. I rarely pay attention to how fast or slow it's going relative to the average game.

[StrangerCoug]

The fact that Nytmare didn't know that only one of the scum has to send in the hit makes me believe he is town. If scum had targeted Nytmare and he survived, that would out Deffie as the roleblocker.

We're down to three other people not including me (I know what I am).

[StrangerCoug]

As I am not sure if this has been brought up or not but role claiming might be something to talk about. If it has been brought up ignore this and I will get to that when I finish reading.

The cop is dead and I am the doctor. There are no other roles to claim.

[StrangerCoug]

In case anyone's forgotten about it, if we lynch the roleblocker today, I'm cleared. If you think I'm scum and you want to hunt for my scumbuddy, then I have no objection to it whether I'm really scum or doctor, but keep that in mind.

The cop is dead and I

at least claim to be

the doctor.

I helped you edit that a little.

As a rule, never edit quotes except to shorten them to what you're addressing. I know I'm not confirmed, but this reeks like twisting my words.

FoS (Finger of Suspicion): Nytmare

raider8169, what are your thoughts on everybody so far?

[StrangerCoug]

Hmm, I would like everyone to say if they believe the claim or not.

I am leaning towards believing at the moment.

At the risk of looking like an idiot stating the obvious, I believe my own claim xD

Do you think he is a real doctor? I find the claim too risky to soon as scum so I am leaning that I belive it however it at the same time is a great gambit if it works out.

Do you really believe what you're saying? Scum claiming doc at L-1 is 'risky' ?

Early in the game, I said this:

Saying "she could have claimed And defended" is not pro-town play. Claims should only be forced in the situation where a null claim (e.g. vanilla) is followed by a hammer. If you're not willing to follow with a hammer, then the claim only helps scum.

i.e. all claimed vanillas should be hammered. If SC didn't claim a powerrole, he would (should) have been hammered. Claiming a powerrole was the only thing he could have done to prevent his own lynch - I believe that's just about the opposite of 'risky.'
No 'risk,' no 'gambit,'. The claim would have played out the same if SC is scum or real doc. His actions should be used to determine his alignment, not the fact that he said he was doc.

Quoted for truth. I didn't like Deffie, and it isn't pro-town of raider8169 to say what he did here.

HoS: raider8169

[StrangerCoug]

Saying that I shouldn't have claimed at Day 1 when that was my only hope of staying alive.

[StrangerCoug]

Saying that I shouldn't have claimed at Day 1 when that was my only hope of staying alive.

This is very true but the question is did you do this to stay alive or was the claim a scum tatic to get out of being lynched or call out the real doctor.

The way you worded this looks like a loaded question. Day 1 claims are

NOT

a scum tell unless a counterclaim happens (then you almost always have a 50-50 chance of lynching scum). If you had read the entire thread, you would know that if I am not really the doctor, then I shouldn't be counterclaimed until Day 2. You would also have read the explanations as to why lynching me at that point, regardless of whether I'm doc or scum, was wrong.

The "calling out the real doctor" argument is invalid because scum doesn't know what roles, if any, the power roles have until the real deal outs him- or herself. Fakeclaiming always has a 50-50 chance of backfiring in an F11—if scum has a roleblocker, then either both power roles exist or neither exist, and if they don't, they know there's only one power role, which is equally likely to be cop as doc.

[StrangerCoug]

Fakeclaiming always has a 50-50 chance of backfiring in an F11—if scum has a roleblocker, then either both power roles exist or neither exist, and if they don't, they know there's only one power role, which is equally likely to be cop as doc.

Isn't it 25-50% chance of backfiring?

a. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Cop, 1 Doctor, and 5 vanilla townies
b. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, and 7 vanilla townies

c. 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Cop, and 6 vanilla townies
d. 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Doctor, and 6 vanilla townies

So a roughly 50% chance of A working (best case, you out their doc and maybe lose a goon) a 100% chance of B means that an early claim like that works out to something in the realm of 50-75% effectiveness depending on the real doctor's reaction, no?

Remember that the scum does not initially know the setup either, but they start off with a 50-50 chance of guessing right.

Let's break it down:

Roleblocker exists: The setup is either A or B
Roleblocker does not exist: The setup is either C or D

Scum claims cop and gets countered: The setup is either A or C
Scum successfully fakes a cop claim: The setup is either B or D
Scum claims doctor and gets countered: The setup is either A or D
Scum successfully fakes a doctor claim: The setup is either B or C

TL;DR version: I don't know where you're getting 25% from.

[StrangerCoug]

I suppose that works. My math assumes a counterclaim will happen if scum fakes an existing role, so when other factors come into play, I presume 25% chance of a backfire makes sense.

Anything else about the setup that I should know, Mr. Mathematician?

[StrangerCoug]

There's always a 50/50 chance there's a doctor in a newbie game. So, if someone is scum and they're about to be lynched, claiming doctor gives you a 50% chance of living, and even if you do get counterclaimed, or counterclaimed day 2 or whatever, then at least you've found the doctor.

I am aware of that. Once again, the only factors I'm taking into account are the setup and the assumption that the real deal will eventually counterclaim if it exists.

Other than me, who do you suspect and why?

[StrangerCoug]

I'll take my chances and

vote raider8169

for both his actions and Deffie's in the thread. Post #615 is pretty off, as is Deffie's insistence to get rid of me despite my claim even during Day 1.

[StrangerCoug]

This is very true but the question is did you do this to stay alive or was the claim a scum tatic to get out of being lynched or call out the real doctor.

That, pretty much.

[StrangerCoug]

Interesting...if you are town, SC, then be ready to unvote on a monent's notice if it looks like the scum are about to pile on.

Will do.

[StrangerCoug]

As not everyone has checked it I can consider it much of a tell if SG is trying to mislynch. However also could be that I am scum and that my partner is not getting on board.

I find this interesting.

Why do I keep getting called SG!?

[StrangerCoug]

Raider, if you're town, shouldn't you be positive SC is scum at this point?

Its hard to say but I am leaning towards my number 3 option.

Why do you think that scum would not be on at the same time to make a quick lynch effective, and where do you think are the vote breadcrumbs?

[StrangerCoug]

I'm very close to voting for raider heree. Anyone have any objections?

This is an example of breadcruming a hint to a possible scum partner.

No it is not. It is an example of waiting for the town to end the day. I've seen town say that.

[StrangerCoug]

I've been suspicious of SC for a while, but like I said, I'm not buying Raider's response here, at all. Why, do you disagree?

I think Raider's response only makes a lot of sense if they're scum together, since it looks like a blatant defense on SC.

If you think raider8169 is blatantly defending me, then why has he made suggestions about the possibility that I am scum?

[StrangerCoug]

Not what I asked for. Not unimportant, but not what I asked for.

[StrangerCoug]

No, I'm asking why he's presenting me as scummy while also defending me.

[StrangerCoug]

Hedging his bets?

AKA fence sitting? I see that.

If

the two of you are scum, you'd rather end the game right now, if you can't end the game right now, and you're both under suspicion, you're better off convincing everyone that the two of you are enemies?

AKA distancing? That I'm having a little bit harder time seeing from the point of view from another player, but it's plausible.

[StrangerCoug]

SC, I noticed when working with the vote counts that you tossed your vote everywhere. It confirmed you were town to me but it is not a good thing as that in itself is scummy. Scum like to vote whoever just to get a mislynch.

The less certain I am of scum, the more I move my vote around regardless of my alignment.

Why did you and Yos wait so long before killing me once SC voted?

I'm surprised about this too.

[StrangerCoug]

(Apologies for not suggesting improvement in the day game. Part of the problem is that I'm not sure why StrangerCoug was seen as suspicious, and that was what drove a lot of the day game.)

I think my vote-hopping has been brought up, and it's kind of my style to move my vote around if I'm not certain of scum. If you'd like to start there...